Group 1 - The report highlights the relationship between contract goods and industrial enterprise profits, indicating that inventory destocking and order prosperity are key directions for asset allocation [5][7] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in manufacturing market demand, although it remains below the first quarter average [11][12] - The report notes that the domestic equity market showed a mixed performance, with 18 industries rising and 13 falling, indicating sector-specific dynamics [6][20] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of external factors such as the U.S. increasing steel import tariffs to 50%, which may affect related industries [17] - It mentions the extension of certain exemptions from the U.S. Section 301 tariffs on China, which could influence trade dynamics [19] - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support growth in light of ongoing economic challenges, particularly in the real estate sector [11][14] Group 3 - The analysis of industrial enterprise profits shows a 3.0% year-on-year increase in April 2025, despite a 2.7% decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggesting a complex relationship between costs and profitability [7][8] - The report identifies sectors such as agricultural product processing and electrical machinery as performing well, while sectors like automotive and power equipment faced declines [6][8] - The report indicates that the recovery in manufacturing is supported by a decrease in raw material costs, which may benefit midstream manufacturing leaders [7][8]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03%, closing at 3347.49 points[5] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.91%, ending at 10040.63 points[5] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 1.40%, closing at 1993.19 points[5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Environmental Protection (up 3.42%), Pharmaceuticals (up 2.21%), and National Defense (up 2.13%) [13] - The worst-performing sectors were Automotive (down 4.11%), Electric Equipment (down 2.44%), and Non-ferrous Metals (down 2.40%) [13] Trading Volume and Margin Data - The average daily trading volume for A-shares was 10939 billion CNY, a decrease of 6.77% from the previous week[14] - The total margin balance in the market was 18009.47 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.02% from the previous week[16] - Margin balance accounted for 2.28% of the A-share market capitalization, an increase of 0.07% from the previous week[16] Margin Trading Activity - The total margin trading volume for the week was 4495.65 billion CNY, down 6.61% from the previous week[17] - Margin trading volume represented 8.22% of the total A-share trading volume, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week[17] Industry Margin Changes - The top five industries with increased margin balances were Machinery (1.859 billion CNY), Utilities (0.964 billion CNY), and Chemicals (0.794 billion CNY) [23] - The top five industries with decreased margin balances included Electronics (-1.669 billion CNY), Communications (-1.189 billion CNY), and Non-bank Financials (-0.889 billion CNY) [23]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment score has declined, indicating a bearish outlook for the market as it has ended its upward repair trend [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment structure indicator has shown significant fluctuations over the past five years, with a low position for most of 2023, only breaking above 2 in October 2024 [1]. - As of May 30, the market sentiment score was 2.5, down from 2.65 the previous week, suggesting a shift towards a bearish sentiment [1]. - The decline in sentiment is supported by a decrease in industry trading activity and a drop in the PCR combined with VIX indicators, reflecting increased uncertainty in fund sentiment [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The trading activity score across industries has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak trends in industry performance [6][13]. - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has dropped, with a notable decline in the first three trading days of May, reaching a low of 1.16 trillion RMB on Friday [8]. - The industry performance shows that sectors like environmental protection, biomedicine, and national defense have maintained positive growth, while sectors like automobiles, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals have seen significant declines [16][17]. Group 3: Short-term Trends - The short-term trend scoring model indicates that sectors such as computer, media, electronics, and biomedicine have shown significant upward trends, with the computer sector's score increasing by 22.22% [19][20]. - The model suggests that small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, with strong signals indicating a preference for this style despite a potential strengthening of value styles [21].

Group 1 - Economic indicators continue to weaken, and the allocation style remains growth-oriented. The quantitative indicators suggest that the economy is declining, liquidity is neutral to loose, and credit indicators are improving. The micro mapping shows that economic (profit expectations) continues to be weak, while credit is improving. The revised direction indicates economic downturn, tight liquidity, and improved credit, consistent with the previous period. Due to the significant divergence between liquidity and credit, the focus is on factors that are insensitive to the economy but sensitive to credit, maintaining a growth-oriented stock pool allocation style [4][7][9] - The macro asset allocation viewpoint suggests increasing bond positions. Given the current indicators, with the economy declining, liquidity tightening, and credit remaining favorable, the outlook for equities is slightly bearish, leading to a minor reduction in A-share positions. The trend for bonds has improved, with an increase in government bond positions and a reduction in US stock positions to zero [4][31] - The economic leading indicators are entering a declining phase. The updated economic leading indicator model indicates that June 2025 is at the beginning of a decline cycle, which is expected to continue [13][15] Group 2 - Liquidity is showing signs of recovery. In May, interest rates remained stable, with short-term rates slightly exceeding the 12-month average, while long-term rates are still significantly distant from the average. The monetary supply data has rebounded, signaling a return to a neutral stance, although the excess reserve ratio remains low, indicating that overall liquidity has returned to a slightly loose state [24][28][26] - Credit indicators are weak across various dimensions. In the second half of 2024, credit indicators are expected to remain low, with the total social financing stock showing a year-on-year increase for five consecutive months, maintaining a high level of comprehensive credit indicators [29] - The market focus remains on liquidity. Since 2023, credit and inflation have garnered significant attention, but recently liquidity has become the most scrutinized variable, particularly following the market rally at the end of September, indicating that the current market is heavily driven by liquidity [33] Group 3 - In terms of industry selection from a macro perspective, the report indicates a preference for industries that are insensitive to economic fluctuations but sensitive to credit conditions. The analysis suggests that these industries possess growth attributes, leading to a higher overall growth characteristic in the selected industries [34] - The report identifies the top industries based on their sensitivity to economic and credit conditions. The industries with the highest scores for being economically insensitive and credit-sensitive include electronics, media, and personal care, among others [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental sector index increased by 3.42%, outperforming other sectors, while the public utility sector index decreased by 0.18% [6][18] - The report highlights a significant drop in coal prices, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal at 620 CNY/ton, a 61.2% decrease from its peak in October 2022 [6][28] - The report recommends companies such as Huadian International and Sheneng Co., while suggesting attention to Zhongmin Energy and Funeng Co. [6] - The report emphasizes the investment value in nuclear and hydropower, recommending Chuan Investment Energy, State Power Investment, Yangtze Power, and China National Nuclear Power [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to promote green electricity direct connection projects, requiring that the self-consumed electricity from renewable sources should not be less than 60% of total available generation by 2030 [10][15] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council released opinions on improving the market-oriented allocation of resource and environmental factors, aiming for a complete carbon emission rights and water rights trading system by 2027 [15][16] Market Performance Review - The environmental sector has shown a cumulative increase of 6.79% in 2025, while the power sector has seen a slight decrease of 0.05% [6][18] - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors, with solid waste management up by 4.83% and comprehensive environmental management up by 8.66% [22] Key Data Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal remains at 620 CNY/ton, with significant reductions from previous highs [28] - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with a current level of 154.63 meters [30] - The price of LNG at the port is reported at 12.03 USD/MMBtu (4501 CNY/ton), a 70.20% decrease from its peak in December 2022 [46] Industry Key Events - The report notes significant developments in the power market, including the issuance of green certificates for renewable energy projects and the establishment of trading rules for green electricity [58] - It also highlights initiatives in the environmental market aimed at enhancing data integration and promoting green development [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets. If equity - type value assets continue to decline, there may be a good entry window. This week, the report recommends the Dividend Index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][22]. - The Chinese economy is in a state of marginal balance sheet contraction. The liability growth rate of the real - sector and the government sector is expected to decline. The asset - side physical quantity data weakened in April, and it is necessary to focus on the duration of this economic marginal weakening [16][18]. - The US economic situation is similar to that during the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001. It is necessary to focus on whether and when the quarterly real GDP year - on - year growth rate in the US will fall below the trend level [6][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side** - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7%. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then return to balance sheet contraction. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8% [16]. - Last week, the net reduction of government bonds was 295 billion yuan, significantly lower than the planned net increase of 137.4 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 128.3 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of April 2025 was 14.8%, up from 13.9%. It is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline, reaching around 12.5% by the end of the year [17]. - The money market tightened marginally last week. The one - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.46% at the weekend. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [2][17]. - **Asset Side** - The physical quantity data in April was weaker than that in March. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market tightened marginally, stocks fell while bonds were flat, and the style shifted to growth dominance. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds shifted towards bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.67%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.46%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.90% [5]. - Since the two sessions in 2025, the balance sheet of the real and government sectors is expected to return to contraction after reaching a high in April - May. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds will trend towards bonds in the contraction cycle, and the equity style will trend towards value [6][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review** - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and computer had the largest increases, while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines [29]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume** - As of May 30, the top five crowded industries were pharmaceutical biology, computer, electronics, mechanical equipment, and automobile, while the bottom five were comprehensive, coal, steel, petroleum and petrochemical, and social services. - The top five industries with the largest increase in crowding this week were computer, pharmaceutical biology, environmental protection, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and national defense and military industry, while the top five with the largest decrease were automobile, non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment, and household appliances. - The daily average trading volume of the whole A - share market decreased from 1.17 trillion yuan last week to 1.09 trillion yuan this week. Environmental protection, computer, power equipment, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [32][33]. - **Industry Valuation and Profit** - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines. - As of May 30, 2025, industries with high full - year profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity** - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 in April to 49.8, and most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 0.92% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then fell to - 1.3% in May, while Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 13.2% in March to 21% in April. - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and the quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March rose to a relatively high level, fell significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. The automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - house sales were at a historical low, and second - hand house sales were still at a high level compared to the historical seasonality [41]. - **Public Fund Market Review** - In the fourth week of May (May 26 - 30), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of May 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57]. - **Industry Recommendation** - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is only slightly favorable to equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [7][63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets were relatively insufficient, with various broad-based and convertible bond indices showing different trends. Short-term performance may be pressured by tariff disturbances. Since May, the equity market's rise has been characterized by a rebound from oversold conditions. Investors entered the market actively based on odds considerations, and with institutional support, the market continued to rise. However, after the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high on May 14, the logic of the rebound has changed, and market divergence has increased. Considering the uncertainty of future tariff policies, style rotation may accelerate. The dumbbell allocation strategy may continue to be advantageous [1][2][7] - In the short term, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets are relatively insufficient and may be pressured by tariff disturbances. The risk of a significant short-term decline is limited, and the market will likely remain volatile. The dividend style benefits from policy support, and the technology growth style has re-entered the institutional view after a valuation correction [2][7] - It is recommended that investors focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. The market style will still tend to be stable. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Market Observation - From May 26 to May 30, various broad-based and convertible bond indices showed different trends, with some convertible bond indices leading the gains. Balanced and equity-based valuations were compressed [7] - The market was volatile this week, with insufficient winning probabilities for major indices and significant sector differentiation. Environmental protection, medicine, and military industries led the gains. The small-cap style was dominant. The bond market had low volatility and weak trading sentiment due to the lack of a macro trading theme and limited odds space [2][7] - The equity market may be pressured by tariffs in the short term. The risk of a significant decline is limited, and the market will remain volatile. After the high on May 14, market divergence increased, and trading volume decreased. Style rotation may accelerate, with the dividend style benefiting from policies and the technology growth style re-entering institutional consideration after a valuation correction [2][7] - In the short term, investors are advised to focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - Not provided in the given content 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Not provided in the given content 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not provided in the given content 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not provided in the given content

市场概况： 上周（5月26日至5月30日）A 股市场呈现结构性分化格局，低估值蓝筹与中小盘股表现迥 异。上证指数、深证及创业板指均有不同程度下跌，而万得微盘指数逆势上涨 2.65%，反映出权重股在 流动性边际收紧预期下的承压状态；与之形成鲜明对比的是，中证 500、中证 1000 等中小盘指数分别 上涨 0.32% 和 0.62%，市场结构性机会明显。 权益方面，美股三大指数集体上涨，科技巨头业绩超预期支撑风险偏好。欧洲市场德国DAX、法国 CAC表现较好。亚洲市场分化相对显著，新兴市场中越南、印度、巴西等涨跌互现。CBOE波动率指数 （VIX）下跌超10%，市场恐慌情绪降温。 商品方面，各品种承压明显。能源与工业金属领跌，贵金属随美元走强而回调，COMEX黄金仍收报于 3300美元/盎司上方。农产品方面，仅生猪期货上涨，BDI 干散货因中国进口需求而有所波动。 图 一周摘要 图 行业板块： 上周Wind一级平均涨幅0.17%，Wind百大概念指数上涨比例67%。板块方面，环保、医药 生物、国防军工相对表现良好，分别上涨3.42%、2.21%、2.13%，计算机、传媒、交通运输、通信等小 幅上行，而有色金属、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Garden has successfully turned around its financial crisis and removed the delisting risk warning, achieving a significant increase in net assets and planning to develop new energy business as a growth point [2][5][7]. Financial Performance - Oriental Garden reported a net asset increase to 1.538 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 881.51% [6]. - The company's operating revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 3.409 billion yuan, 569 million yuan, and 877 million yuan respectively, while the net profits attributable to shareholders were -5.816 billion yuan, -5.083 billion yuan, and -3.603 billion yuan [6]. Stock Market Activity - On May 30, following the removal of the delisting risk warning, Oriental Garden's stock price hit the daily limit, closing at 2.37 yuan per share [3]. - The stock's trading name changed from "ST Dongyuan" to "Oriental Garden," and the daily price fluctuation limit was adjusted to 10% [3]. Restructuring and Recovery Measures - After being warned of delisting, Oriental Garden implemented four key measures to stabilize its operations, including leveraging resources for ecological projects, focusing on profitability in environmental business, promoting circular economy initiatives, and improving asset quality through debt relief strategies [5][6]. - The company successfully completed its restructuring plan, increasing its total share capital from approximately 2.685 billion shares to about 5.999 billion shares [6]. New Business Development - Oriental Garden plans to expand into the new energy sector, focusing on centralized and distributed energy project development and operation, as well as the securitization of new energy resources [7][8]. - The company aims to acquire new energy assets and collaborate with local governments in resource-rich areas to enhance its market presence [8].

劲旅环境今日下跌2.35%，全天换手率56.71%，成交额8.38亿元，振幅13.94%。龙虎榜数据显示，营业 部席位合计净卖出856.32万元。 深交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日换手率达56.71%上榜，营业部席位合计净卖出856.32万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交1.96亿元，其中，买入成交额为9391.66 万元，卖出成交额为1.02亿元，合计净卖出856.32万元。 具体来看，今日上榜营业部中，第一大买入营业部为东方证券股份有限公司张家港东环路证券营业部， 买入金额为2461.12万元，第一大卖出营业部为联储证券股份有限公司上海中山西路证券营业部，卖出 金额为2547.65万元。 资金流向方面，今日该股主力资金净流出6358.55万元，其中，特大单净流出4357.42万元，大单资金净 流出2001.12万元。近5日主力资金净流入5220.10万元。（数据宝） 劲旅环境5月30日交易公开信息 | 买/卖 | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额（万元） | 卖出金额（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 买一 | 东方证券股份有限公司张家港东环路证 ...