本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【尿素出口放缓，价格短期或弱势震荡】8月5日消息，当前尿素出口增速放缓，供需格局趋于宽松，短 期内价格或维持弱势震荡，下行压力大于上涨动力。 进入8月合约换月期，建议投资者移仓，规避临近 交割月的流动性风险。中长期看，出口政策调整和宏观预期改善或带来修复机会。 不过，尿素行业仍 面临供过于求矛盾，年内供应压力难实质缓解。投资策略上，建议关注右侧布局的逢高做空机会。 后 期需密切跟踪宏观走势、出口政策变化及库存去化节奏等指标，把握市场节奏。 ...

2025 年 08 月 05 日 尿素：国际价格上行或带动短期投机性 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,709 | 1,714 | - 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,714 | 1,722 | - 8 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 108,843 | 135,479 | -26636 | | （09合约） | | 持仓量 | （手） | 142,700 | 141,557 | 1143 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 3,373 | 3,233 | 140 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 373,047 | 466,725 | -93677 | | | ...

最近三个交易日，31日-4日，亚钾国际分别获融资买入0.64亿元、0.39亿元、0.16亿元。 融券方面，当日融券卖出0.19万股，净卖出0.19万股。 8月4日，沪深两融数据显示，亚钾国际获融资买入额0.16亿元，居两市第1856位，当日融资偿还额0.21 亿元，净卖出475.87万元。 来源：金融界 ...

二、会议审议情况 经全体董事审议，会议形成如下决议： 证券代码：002588 证券简称：史丹利 公告编号：2025-023 史丹利农业集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性 陈述或重大遗漏。 一、会议召开情况 史丹利农业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第六届董事会第十四次临 时会议于 2025 年 8 月 4 日上午 9 时在山东省临沂市临沭县史丹利路公司办公楼 会议室以现场会议结合通讯表决的方式召开。会议通知及会议资料已于 2025 年 议应到董事 5 人，实到董事 5 人。董事长高进华先生、董事张磊先生、靳职武先 生现场出席会议并表决，独立董事李文峰先生、李新中先生以通讯方式参会并表 决。公司部分监事及高级管理人员列席了本次会议，会议由董事长高进华先生主 持。本次会议的通知、召集、召开和表决方式符合《中华人民共和国公司法》和 《公司章程》的有关规定。 公司第六届董事会将于 2025 年 8 月 19 日任期届满，根据《公司章程》的规 定，董事会同意提名高进华先生、张磊先生、靳职武先生为第七届董事会非独立 董事候选人，任期为股东会审议通过之日起三年。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025. It highlights Shengquan Group's role as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, benefiting from increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to benefit from U.S. tariff conflicts. Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized for its capacity growth and new product launches, which are anticipated to elevate its performance [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry index closed at 3727.14 points, down 1.46% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.29% [10]. - Key chemical products such as TDI, epoxy chloropropane, lithium hydroxide, formic acid, and phosphoric acid saw significant price increases [21]. Key Sub-Industry Tracking - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: The report indicates a peak export window for phosphate fertilizers, with exports expected to alleviate domestic overcapacity and maintain profitability for large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - **Pesticides**: Following a chemical safety incident, the report anticipates a nationwide safety inspection that may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities, potentially boosting the pesticide industry's outlook [3]. - **Polyester Filament**: The report notes a slight increase in polyester filament prices, driven by rising production costs and a modest uptick in demand, although overall market conditions remain weak [24][25]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.03 in 2024, with a PE ratio of 31, while Hailide's EPS is expected to be 0.35 with a PE of 16. Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to achieve an EPS of 1.24 with a PE of 35 [4].

证券日报网讯8月4日晚间，史丹利（002588）发布公告称，公司将于2025年8月20日召开2025年第一次 临时股东会。本次股东会将审议《关于选举公司第七届董事会非独立董事的议案》等多项议案。 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report, August 4, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy Chemical R & D Report [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The urea futures market rebounded after a decline, and the spot market prices were stable with improved low - price transactions. The overall supply is abundant, while the domestic demand is limited. The new Indian tender has a certain positive impact on market sentiment [3][5] Group 4: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures stopped falling and rebounded, closing at 1733 (+19/+1.11%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory - gate prices were stable, and low - price transactions improved. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1710 - 1730 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1580 - 1630 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Important Information - On August 4, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.47 million tons compared with the same period last year. The daily operation rate was 82.24%, 2.59% higher than 79.65% in the same period last year [4] Group 6: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was fair, and the factory - gate quotes in mainstream regions were temporarily stable. Low - price transactions improved [5] - Supply: Some plants were under maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 19 million tons, still at the highest level in the same period. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 5.38 million tons to around 91.73 million tons, remaining at a high level overall [5] - Demand: The new Indian tender was announced, with the final price rising by more than $30/ton compared with the previous one. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the relaxation of export policies had a certain positive impact on the domestic market sentiment. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was low, and the demand for raw materials was weak [5] - Price Forecast: In Shandong, the factory - gate quotes are expected to increase; in Henan, they are expected to remain stable; in areas around the delivery zone, they are also expected to remain stable [5] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Close short positions and wait and see [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend. In August, there will be both maintenance and restart of urea production facilities, and the daily output is expected to fluctuate around 19 - 20 million tons [4]. - The inventory of upstream urea enterprises increased compared to the previous period, while the port inventory decreased to 493,000 tons, indicating that the export performance was below expectations [4]. - The demand for agricultural top - dressing has ended. Although the production start - up of autumn compound fertilizers has increased, the finished product inventory still faces significant pressure [4]. - In the short term, affected by weak supply - demand and the overall correction in the commodity market, the urea futures price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. However, there is an expected improvement in autumn fertilizers and potential support from exports. The UR2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and subsequent attention should be paid to whether autumn fertilizers can bring a phased rebound opportunity [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Recently, there have been many maintenance facilities, and the supply has decreased significantly [4]. - **Demand**: The demand for agricultural top - dressing has ended, and attention should be paid to the production of autumn fertilizers [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises increased from a decreasing trend, and the port inventory decreased [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and urea profits decreased compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the 09 basis has limited changes [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Market Price**: The domestic urea market price is running weakly, and international urea prices are showing mixed trends [6][10]. - **Supply**: Recently, there are many maintenance facilities, and the supply has decreased significantly. The weekly urea output is 1.3548 million tons (+0.01%), including 1.0451 million tons of coal - based urea output (-1.62%) and 309,700 tons of gas - based urea output (+5.92%), with an average daily output of 194,000 tons [16][20]. - **Inventory**: The urea enterprise inventory is 917,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,500 tons. The port inventory is 493,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises are 6.12 days (a week - on - week increase of 3.03%), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises has increased slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 38.68% (+5.10%), and the finished product inventory is 777,200 tons (a week - on - week increase of 35,100 tons). The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased significantly, and the finished product inventory continues to accumulate. The operating rate of melamine is 63.50% (-1.70%), with a slight decline, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [34]. - **Raw Material**: Coal prices are stable with a slight upward trend [36]. - **Profit**: Urea profits decreased slightly compared to the previous period [42]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the 09 basis has limited changes [45].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The maintenance support and export containerization offset the off - season of agricultural demand. However, policy uncertainty and high inventory suppress the price rebound, and the price will continue to be weakly sorted [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental and Views - **Supply**: In August, the planned maintenance increases, and the production is expected to drop to 5.8 million tons, and the supply pressure will ease month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory and Export**: The port inventory exceeds 500,000 tons, and the export quota promotes continuous containerization, providing support for demand [4]. - **Agricultural Demand**: The use of corn fertilizer is ending, the preparation for wheat fertilizer has not started. Although the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, the inventory preparation is cautious [4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The rumor of restrictions on small - package exports has spread, and traders resist high prices. The spot price has dropped by 0.9% this week [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: Multiple inventory data charts are provided, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi urea inventory, etc., showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][9]. - **Futures Market**: Charts of futures main - contract positions, trading volume, warehouse receipt quantity, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts are presented, showing the trends from 2021 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - **Price**: Various price - related charts are included, such as the daily market price of small - particle urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small particles, and the seasonal price differences between different contract months [17][19][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts of production costs and profits of different urea production methods (fixed - bed, natural - gas, water - coal - slurry gasification) are provided, as well as the production profit of compound fertilizers in Shandong [28][30][41]. - **Production - related Data**: Data on production - related indicators such as the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate are presented [33][35][39]. - **External Market and Raw Materials**: Charts of FOB prices in the Middle East and China, and the spot price and port inventory of thermal coal are provided [43][44][48].

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Cangge Mining is 47.82 yuan, an increase of 1.76 yuan, representing a rise of 3.82% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The company operates in the fertilizer industry, primarily engaged in the production and sales of potassium fertilizers and lithium salt products [1] - The production cost of lithium carbonate from the Mami Cuo Salt Lake is approximately 31,000 yuan per ton, significantly lower than the industry average [1] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, the company achieved an operating income of 1.678 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.80% [1] - The investment income from the associated company, Julong Copper Industry, contributed 1.264 billion yuan, accounting for 70.22% of the net profit [1] - The National Social Security Fund's second-quarter holdings indicate that the 103rd combination holds 18.12 million shares of Cangge Mining, representing 1.15% of the circulating shares [1] Group 3 - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend, proposing a cash dividend of 10 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling a distribution amount of 1.569 billion yuan [1]