Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium sector has been adjusted to a pecking order of steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] Core Insights - The national "trade-in" subsidy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been suspended in some provinces earlier than expected, which may exert downward pressure on NEV demand, but the impact is estimated to be limited due to OEMs offering price discounts and diminishing marginal impact of subsidies [1] - Supply side dynamics are critical, with expectations of more supply cuts for lithium compounds sourced from spodumene and lepidolite in the next three months, as current prices are testing the cost curve for most lithium producers [1] - The market is expected to experience lingering pressure over the next 12 months due to significant oversupply this year [1] Summary by Sections Lithium Market Overview - As of June 5, 2025, the average selling prices (ASP) for lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) are Rmb60.2k/t and Rmb62.3k/t respectively, showing a decline from the previous week [2] - China's Li2CO3 production increased by 5% week-over-week to 17,471 tons, with production from brine, lepidolite, and spodumene showing varied changes [2] - Total inventory of Li2CO3 reached 132,432 tons, reflecting a 1% increase week-over-week, with downstream players' inventory decreasing slightly [2] Company Valuations - Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) has a target price of HK$7.60 per share based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.59x for 2025E, reflecting stronger than historical average returns due to higher aluminum margins [18] - Tianqi Lithium's A-share target price is set at Rmb26.26 per share based on a P/B multiple of 1.0x for 2025E, which is approximately 1.2x standard deviation below the historical average [22] - The target price for Tianqi Lithium's H-shares is HK$23.0, applying a 30% discount to the A-share target P/B, consistent with historical averages [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cement, copper, and incrementally positive on steel and aluminium, while holding a negative view on coal and lithium [1][9]. Core Insights - Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed, reflecting mark-to-market price changes for 1H25, with target price changes ranging from -13% to +12% [1][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for hog pricing/margin in 2H25E due to improved supply discipline [1][9]. Summary by Sector Steel - Earnings forecasts for Baosteel and Angang have been revised up by 1-4% for 2025E, while the loss-making forecast for Maanshan has been cut by 11% [10]. - Maintain Buy on Baosteel with a new target price of Rmb8.8/sh [10]. Coal - The thermal coal market is expected to remain balanced in 2025E, with a decline in demand driven by renewable energy expansion [11]. - Earnings forecasts for Shenhua, Chinacoal, and Yankuang have been cut by 2-11% for 2025E and 10-27% for 2026-27E [12]. Cement - Unit gross profit forecasts for cement have been revised down by Rmb2-6/t for 2025E, but a positive view is maintained for 2H25E due to supply discipline [13]. - Earnings estimates for CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, and CRBMT have been cut by 6% to 18% for 2025E [14]. Aluminum - Earnings estimates for Hongqiao have been revised up by 5-27% for 2025-27E, reflecting higher industry spread forecasts [17]. - Maintain Neutral on Hongqiao with a target price of HK$12.5/sh [17]. Copper - The benchmark copper price forecast has been revised to an average of US$4.20/lb in 2025E and US$4.61/lb in 2026E [18]. - Earnings estimates for CMOC-H/A, JXC-H/A, and MMG have been cut by 1-18% for 2025-26E [18]. Lithium - Earnings estimates for Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Yongxing have been cut by 3-4% for 2025E due to lower lithium prices [20]. - Yongxing's 2027E earnings have been cut by 37% based on flat lithium price forecasts [20]. Paper - Earnings forecasts for ND Paper have been revised up by 3-4%, while Sunpaper's earnings have been cut by 3% [22].

Group 1 - The company held its 15th meeting of the 6th Board of Directors on June 6, 2025, in Shanghai, with all 5 directors present, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [1] - The board approved a proposal to enhance the green low-carbon energy efficiency of the company's 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity using advanced domestic energy-saving technology [2] - The project will utilize fully graphitized cathode carbon blocks and new energy-saving cathode structure technology, leading to improved operational stability and current efficiency [2] Group 2 - Upon completion, the company's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to reach approximately 1.4 million tons per year, with electricity consumption for aluminum liquid expected to achieve industry-leading levels [2] - The construction period for the project is tentatively set at 10 months, with an estimated investment amount [2] - The proposal has been reviewed and approved by the Board's Strategy and Sustainable Development Committee [2]

Group 1: Automotive Intelligence Data - The article focuses on three main areas of automotive intelligence: intelligent perception, intelligent decision-making, and intelligent cockpit, showcasing key indicators such as shipment volume, installation rate, penetration rate, and localization level to illustrate market trends [2]. Group 2: Aluminum Industry Observation - Weekly tracking of core indicators such as prices, inventory, production, operating rates, cash profits, and various costs in the aluminum industry is provided [3]. Group 3: Building Materials Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - High-frequency tracking of supply and demand conditions and price trends in the cement, glass, and fiberglass sub-markets is presented, with key indicators available for quick reference [5][6]. Group 4: Film Industry Database - The film industry database covers two main areas: box office and cinema channels, featuring monthly indicators such as box office revenue, number of cinemas, ticket sales, and market share of film investments [7].

全球供应萎缩和特朗普挑起的美国关税造成的需求上升都有望支持这样的预期。 Harbor Aluminum：预计LME铝价将在未来18个月涨超20%，至3000美元/吨。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Basic Materials, specifically gold, copper, aluminum, steel, and lithium sectors [2][3][6][7] Core Insights 1. **Gold Market**: - Consensus remains positive on gold, with potential prices reaching up to $6,000 [2][3] - Central bank buying continues to support gold prices, with minimal earnings impact from recent seismic activity at Kamoa mine estimated at less than 5% [3] 2. **Copper Supply**: - A shortage in copper concentrate is expected to persist, with supply increases projected between 100,000 to 1 million tons in 2025, insufficient to meet demand [6][8] - High operating costs at mining companies necessitate higher copper prices to incentivize new supply [6] 3. **Aluminum Sector**: - Aluminum margins remain healthy, with alumina prices stabilizing around Rmb3,000 per ton [2][6] - Hongqiao has relocated aluminum capacity to Yunnan, with plans for further expansion [7] 4. **Steel Industry**: - Weak sentiment in the steel market continues, with expectations of a crude steel production cut of 50 million tons to address supply-demand pressures [7] - Trade tensions and tariffs have negatively impacted steel exports, although some companies are exploring new markets [7] 5. **Lithium Market**: - The lithium market faces oversupply issues, with prices expected to decline unless production cuts occur [6][8] - Ganfeng anticipates a short-term drop in lithium prices due to tariff concerns and reduced costs for Australian miners [8] Additional Important Insights - **Zijin Mining**: - Zijin is optimistic about gold prices reaching $5,000 by 2026, driven by demand from electrification and power grid needs [7] - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures to meet growth targets by 2028 [7] - **CMOC**: - CMOC's profits are closely tied to market price volatility, with a DRC cobalt export policy update expected soon [8] - The company is facing pressure on production costs due to higher sulfur costs and taxes [8] - **Market Sentiment**: - Overall market sentiment remains cautious, with trade tensions and macroeconomic factors influencing demand across various sectors [6][7][8] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed outlook across the basic materials sector, with strong long-term potential for gold and copper, while challenges persist in the steel and lithium markets. Companies are adapting to market conditions through strategic capacity adjustments and exploring new opportunities amidst ongoing trade tensions.

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's decision to increase aluminum tariffs to 50 percent is aimed at bolstering domestic production and job creation in the U.S. aluminum industry [2][3]. Company Summary - Century Aluminum Company supports the increased tariffs, which will enhance the supply of critical metals for national security and promote investments in U.S. jobs [2]. - The company plans to construct the first new aluminum smelter in the U.S. in 50 years and aims to double its domestic production as a result of the supportive policies [2][3]. - Century Aluminum is the largest domestic producer of primary aluminum in the United States and operates production facilities in Iceland, the Netherlands, and Jamaica [4].

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation (AA) has shown strong stock performance, increasing 12.1% in the past month, outperforming both the industry and S&P 500 [1] Stock Performance - Alcoa's stock closed at $28.25, below its 52-week high of $47.77 and above its 52-week low of $21.53, indicating mixed sentiment as it trades above its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average [4] Factors Influencing Performance - Demand for aluminum is rising due to the popularity of lighter electric vehicles, recycled aluminum, and increased aircraft production, which boosts demand for aluminum alloys [5] - U.S. tariffs of 25% on imported steel and aluminum have increased prices, benefiting domestic producers like Alcoa, although they have not revived U.S. smelting operations [6] - A lack of competitively priced electricity has led to smelter closures, including Alcoa's permanent closure of its Intalco smelter in March 2023, impacting production [7] Segment Performance - Alcoa's Aluminum segment is benefiting from strong demand in electrical and packaging markets, with production expected to reach 2.3-2.5 million tonnes in 2025 and shipments anticipated at 2.6-2.8 million tonnes [8] - The Alumina segment is seeing growth in its Sustana product line, with production expected to be 9.5-9.7 million tonnes and shipments likely to be 13.1-13.3 million tonnes in 2025 [9] Strategic Actions - Alcoa has made strategic moves to enhance growth, including the acquisition of Alumina Limited in August 2024, which strengthens its position in the bauxite and alumina market [10] Financial Metrics - Alcoa's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 18.56%, higher than the industry average of 17.98%, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds [11] - The stock has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 8.78X, below the industry average of 9.08X, making it an attractive valuation compared to peers [13] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for 2025 have decreased by 13.1% to $3.57 per share, and for 2026, they have declined by 19.2% to $2.69 per share [16]

Group 1 - The ongoing discussions regarding US aluminum tariffs have significantly impacted global aluminum markets, creating a clear divide between US and non-US midstream aluminum processors [1] - The situation highlights the complexities and challenges faced by companies like Constellium SE, which operates in the aluminum processing sector [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics related to the companies mentioned [2][3] - There are no investment recommendations or advice given in the article [2][3]

Group 1 - Constellium SE held its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on May 15, 2025, and published the voting results on its website [1] - All proposals at the AGM were adopted, including the appointment of Bradley Soultz and the re-appointment of Emmanuel Blot, Martha Brooks, and Lori Walker to the Board of Directors for a three-year term [2] - Constellium is a global leader in developing innovative, value-added aluminum products for various markets, generating $7.3 billion in revenue in 2024 [3]