Growing concerns over the impacts of President Trump's new tariffs, particularly for states that border Canada and rely on open trade with our northern neighbor. On Friday, President Trump raised levies on Canadian imports to as high as 35% with a 25% on automobiles and 50% on steel and aluminum. Canada's Minister of US trade today saying he is hopeful that an agreement favorable to both countries can still be worked out.We think uh Miss Brennan that the economies of both countries are strengthened when we ...

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are appealing due to their potential for above-average financial growth, but identifying those that can fulfill their potential is challenging [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) is identified as a promising growth stock with a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] - The company has a historical EPS growth rate of 5.5%, but projected EPS growth for this year is expected to be 84.9%, significantly outperforming the industry average of 2.8% [5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Kaiser Aluminum has an asset utilization ratio (sales-to-total-assets ratio) of 1.3, indicating that the company generates $1.3 in sales for every dollar in assets, compared to the industry average of 0.85 [6] - The company's sales are projected to grow by 14.8% this year, while the industry average is 0% [7] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - The current-year earnings estimates for Kaiser have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 11.3% over the past month [9] - Kaiser has achieved a Growth Score of B and holds a Zacks Rank 1 due to positive earnings estimate revisions, suggesting it is a strong choice for growth investors [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Baotou aluminum industry is evolving into a high-efficiency closed-loop production model, aiming to establish a trillion-yuan industrial cluster by 2024, with significant advancements in technology and sustainability [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Development - Baotou Aluminum has a production capacity of 1.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 60,000 tons of high-purity aluminum, leading the global market in high-purity aluminum production [1] - The aluminum industry in Baotou has seen a rise in deep processing rates from 9% to 42.3% since 2021, contributing to an industry output value of 47.64 billion yuan [2] - The region is focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green development, leveraging aluminum water resources and green electricity advantages [2][3] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The Baotou Aluminum Industrial Park has established a light alloy technology center, fostering 11 innovative enterprises and holding over 300 patents, with a digitalization rate of 77.8% [2] - The park's production capabilities include advanced manufacturing processes, such as the use of robotic arms for precision machining of aluminum alloy products [2] Group 3: Sustainability Initiatives - The Baotou Aluminum Industrial Park has been recognized as a "National Green Industrial Park," with clean energy accounting for over 40% of its energy consumption [3] - The company is implementing a "black light factory" model, aiming for full-process intelligent production and integrating renewable energy solutions like rooftop photovoltaics and rainwater recycling [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments increased by 2% to 384,000 tonnes compared to 2024, driven by higher shipments in the PARP segment [6] - Revenue rose by 9% to $2.1 billion due to higher shipments and favorable price and mix, including increased metal prices [6] - Net income decreased to $36 million from $77 million in the same quarter last year, while adjusted EBITDA was $146 million, down from $180 million [7] - Free cash flow was strong at $41 million, with $35 million returned to shareholders through share repurchases [7][29] - Leverage at the end of the quarter was 3.6 times, expected to trend down as the year progresses [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - A and T segment adjusted EBITDA decreased by 13% to $78 million, with aerospace shipments down 12% due to excess inventory issues [18][19] - PARP segment adjusted EBITDA increased by 12% to $74 million, with packaging shipments up 14% while automotive shipments decreased by 14% [21][22] - AS and I segment adjusted EBITDA fell by 40% to $18 million, with automotive shipments down 12% but industry shipments up 14% [23][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand weakness was noted across most end markets except packaging, with automotive production in Europe and North America remaining below pre-COVID levels [8][38] - Aerospace market backlogs are robust, but supply chain challenges have slowed deliveries [34] - Packaging demand remains healthy, with expectations for low to mid-single-digit growth in both North America and Europe [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on cost control, free cash flow generation, and capital discipline amid ongoing demand weakness [8][42] - The Vision 25 program is being accelerated to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs [27] - The company is optimizing capacity by shifting resources from automotive to packaging markets [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in raising guidance for 2025, citing strong performance in packaging and effective cost reduction efforts [42] - The outlook for automotive remains cautious due to ongoing demand weakness and tariff impacts [38] - Long-term fundamentals in aerospace and packaging are viewed positively, despite current challenges [34][36] Other Important Information - The company will transition to a U.S. domestic filer starting in 2026, impacting its reporting requirements [31][32] - The tariff situation is fluid, with both positive and negative impacts anticipated, but overall expected to be net positive [10][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What gave the confidence to raise guidance this quarter? - Management highlighted strong performance in packaging, effective cost reduction, and favorable scrap spreads as key factors [48][49] Question: What is the expected cadence between Q3 and Q4? - Q3 is expected to perform better than Q2 due to benefits from tariff mitigations, while Q4 will likely see seasonal weakness [53] Question: Can you provide details on packaging improvements at Muscle Shoals? - Improvements were attributed to operational stabilization and increased capacity utilization due to automotive weakness [58][60] Question: Is there engagement with Chinese OEMs for localization in Europe? - No current engagement with Chinese OEMs, but the company will be a legitimate supplier if assembly plants are established [62] Question: What is the outlook for aerospace demand? - Demand has stabilized, but there is a shift in delivery timelines due to supply chain adjustments [70][72] Question: What is the impact of the big beautiful bill? - Currently, no significant impact on financial results is anticipated [92] Question: Are there expectations for price increases in packaging? - The environment is supportive for pricing, with positive trends in negotiations for 2026 [100]

Q2 2025 Performance - Shipments reached 384 thousand tons, a 2% year-over-year increase[11] - Revenue totaled $2.1 billion, up 9% year-over-year[11] - Net income was $36 million[11] - Adjusted EBITDA was $146 million, including a negative non-cash metal price lag impact of $13 million[11] - Free Cash Flow amounted to $41 million[11] - The company repurchased 3.4 million shares for $35 million[11] Segment Performance - Aerospace & Transportation: Adjusted EBITDA was $78 million, a 13% decrease year-over-year, with shipments down 11% to 53 thousand tons[14] - Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products: Adjusted EBITDA was $74 million, a 12% increase year-over-year, with shipments up 5% to 276 thousand tons[17] - Automotive Structures & Industry: Adjusted EBITDA was $18 million, a 40% decrease year-over-year, with shipments down 1% to 55 thousand tons[20] Financial Position and Outlook - Leverage ratio was 3.6x at the end of Q2 2025[11, 29] - The company expects to be at or below 3.0x leverage by the end of 2025[29] - The company targets 2025 Free Cash Flow to be greater than $120 million[27, 41] - The company targets 2025 Adjusted EBITDA between $620 million and $650 million[41]

President's been making some comments in this bilateral. He's covered the Fed and rates. He's covered China, uh, Gaza and Russia.And now some comments on aluminum and steel. Take a listen. World.For the world, what percent will that be. I would say it'll be somewhere in the 15 to 20% range. So maybe 15 or 20 or No, I said, you know, I sort of know, but I just want to be nice. I would say in the range of 15 to 20%.UK probably one of those two numbers for UK steel aluminum makers here are worried about. Would ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Basic Materials** sector, particularly the impact of the **Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Dam** project and the anticipated policies from the **Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)** [2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Dam**: - Estimated investment of **Rmb 1.2 trillion** with a construction period of approximately **10 years** [3]. - Total installed capacity of **60 GW** and expected annual power output of **300 billion kWh** [3]. - Direct impact on steel demand is limited, with an estimated consumption of **0.2 million tons (mt)** of steel and **2.4 mt** of cement annually, representing **0.02%** and **0.13%** of China's total outputs, respectively [5]. - **Market Speculation**: - The recent rally in steel prices is driven by speculation regarding potential **Supply-Side Reform 2.0** rather than fundamental improvements [3]. - Similar price movements were observed in **July-August 2023**, where production control in **Tangshan** fueled speculation about supportive policies from the Politburo [3]. - **MIIT's Upcoming Policies**: - MIIT plans to release work plans aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [3]. - Previous announcements in 2023 had less significant impacts on steel prices than initially expected, raising caution about the effectiveness of future policies [5]. - **Stock Performance**: - Following MIIT's announcement, basic materials stocks rallied by **2-7%** [5]. - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of this rally, emphasizing the need to observe policy execution effectiveness before making further investments [5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Recommendations**: - Analysts favor companies such as **Chalco**, **Zijin**, and **Baosteel** due to their potential for margin improvement and favorable payout ratios [5]. - The report indicates that **Baosteel** is expected to outperform **Angang Steel** based on historical price movements [6]. - **Long-term Demand Considerations**: - The incremental demand from the mega dam project is expected to span several years, with challenges related to construction in Tibet [5]. - **Price Normalization**: - There is an expectation that the recent price rally in steel, iron ore, and coking coal will gradually normalize following the Politburo meeting [6]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the cautious optimism surrounding the China Basic Materials sector, driven by government policy expectations and significant infrastructure projects. However, analysts stress the importance of monitoring the execution of these policies and the actual impact on market fundamentals before making investment decisions.

Group 1 - Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ: CENX) will report second quarter 2025 earnings on August 7, 2025, after market close [1] - A follow-up conference call will be held on August 7, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time [1] - The earnings call will be webcast live on the company's website, with a replay available approximately two hours after the live call [2] Group 2 - Registration for the webcast should begin at least 10 minutes before the call [2] - Investor contact for inquiries is Ryan Crawford, reachable at investorrelations@centuryaluminum.com or (312) 696-3132 [2] - Media contact is Tawn Earnest, available at (614) 698-6351 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Century Aluminum (CENX) stock is considered hazardous and a poor investment choice at its current price of approximately $22 due to several identified issues despite its low valuation [2][3]. Valuation Comparison - CENX stock appears inexpensive when compared to the broader market based on price per dollar of sales or profit [4]. Revenue Growth - Century Aluminum's revenues have shown significant growth, with a 11.4% increase from $2.1 billion to $2.4 billion in the past 12 months, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [6]. - The company experienced an average annual decline of 1.4% in its top line over the last three years, while the S&P 500 saw a 5.5% increase [6]. - Quarterly revenues rose by 29.5% to $634 million in the most recent quarter from $490 million a year prior, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.8% improvement [6]. Profitability Metrics - Century Aluminum's operating income over the last four quarters was $166 million, reflecting a poor operating margin of 7.0% [7]. - The operating cash flow (OCF) during this timeframe was $63 million, indicating a very poor OCF margin of 2.6% compared to 14.9% for the S&P 500 [7]. - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for Century Aluminum is 0.9, while the S&P 500's is 3.1; the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 17.3 versus the benchmark's 26.9 [7]. Financial Stability - Century Aluminum's debt stood at $483 million at the end of the most recent quarter, with a market capitalization of $2.1 billion, resulting in a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 23.3% compared to 19.4% for the S&P 500 [9]. - Cash (including cash equivalents) constitutes $45 million of the $2.0 billion in total assets, leading to a poor cash-to-assets ratio of 2.3% [9]. Downturn Resilience - CENX stock has historically performed worse than the S&P 500 during several downturns, including an 82.1% drop during the inflation shock of 2022 compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [10]. - During the COVID pandemic in 2020, CENX stock fell 62.1%, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% [10]. - In the global financial crisis of 2008, CENX stock dropped 98.7%, significantly worse than the S&P 500's 56.8% decline [11]. Overall Assessment - Century Aluminum's performance across key parameters is summarized as follows: Growth is very strong, profitability is very weak, financial stability is weak, and downturn resilience is very weak, leading to an overall weak assessment of the stock [13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Kaiser Aluminum reported second quarter conversion revenue of $374 million, an increase of approximately $5 million or 1% compared to the prior year period [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $68 million, down approximately $6 million from the prior year period [18] - Reported net income for the second quarter was $23 million or $1.41 net income per diluted share, compared to net income of $19 million or $1.15 net income per diluted share in the prior year quarter [17] - Free cash flow for full year 2025 is now projected to be between $50 million and $70 million, revised down from an initial expectation of $100 million [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace and high strength conversion revenue totaled $127 million, down $6 million or approximately 5%, primarily due to a 4% decline in shipments [12] - Packaging conversion revenue totaled $130 million, up $11 million or approximately 9% year over year, despite a 3% decline in shipments [13] - General engineering conversion revenue for the second quarter was $86 million, up $3 million or 3% year over year on a 5% increase in shipments [13] - Automotive conversion revenue of $32 million declined 4% year over year on a 15% decrease in shipments [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for aerospace and high strength applications, including business jet, defense, and space, remained strong despite a decline in commercial aircraft OEM production patterns [12][13] - Broader market factors, including reshoring opportunities, continue to create a favorable operating environment in the general engineering end market [13] - North American demand for packaging far exceeds available supply, expected to continue beyond 2025 [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Kaiser Aluminum is focused on long-term goals to achieve mid to high 20% EBITDA margins, with expectations for continued progress as demand cycles advance [6] - Investments in Trentwood and Warrick rolling mills are seen as foundational for margin expansion, with completion of the Trentwood Phase seven investment expected in the fourth quarter [9] - The company is committed to quality and maintaining its position as North America's leading coated supplier for aluminum packaging solutions [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that customer sentiment was impacted by tariff-related uncertainty, particularly in the automotive segment, but conditions improved late in the second quarter [7] - The broader policy and geopolitical landscape remains fluid, introducing volatility in ordering patterns [8] - The outlook for total conversion revenue for 2025 remains unchanged at a 5% to 10% year-over-year improvement, with a raised full-year EBITDA outlook of 10% to 15% growth [29] Other Important Information - The company finalized a key multiyear packaging customer contract for coated products, reflecting customer confidence and market strength [11] - Total cash as of June 30, 2025, was approximately $13 million, with a strong liquidity position of approximately $538 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the delay in the commissioning of the packaging line? - The delay is attributed to typical startup issues with complex equipment, with multiple coatings being qualified simultaneously [33] Question: When do you foresee the destocking in aerospace inventory coming to an end? - The destocking is expected to dissipate by the end of the year, with a healthier supply chain anticipated in 2026 [40] Question: How should we think about the cadence of EBITDA in the back half of the year? - The second half is expected to align with previous predictions, with a slight decline in aerospace but an increase in packaging offsetting it [42] Question: How exposed is the company to specific defense programs? - The company is well-positioned across various platforms, maintaining a consistent supply to multiple defense programs [56]