Core Viewpoint - Commercial Metals (CMC) reported a decline in earnings and sales in its most recent earnings report, missing estimates, but the stock has shown a positive trend in the month following the report, outperforming the S&P 500 [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 fiscal 2025 were 74 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents, and down 27.5% year over year [3]. - Net sales for the quarter were $2.02 billion, slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.01 billion, but down from $2.08 billion in the previous year [3]. - Cost of goods sold decreased by 1% year over year to $1.72 billion, while gross profit fell 11.9% to $300 million [4]. - Core EBITDA was reported at $204 million, down 20.3% year over year [4]. Segment Performance - The North America Steel Group generated net sales of $1.56 billion, down from $1.67 billion year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $186 million compared to $246 million in the prior year [5]. - The Europe Steel Group's revenues increased by 18.6% year over year to $247.6 million, with adjusted EBITDA improving to $3.6 million from a negative $4.2 million [6]. - The Emerging Businesses Group reported net sales of $197 million, up from $188.5 million year over year, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 7.9% [7]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 fiscal 2025 were $893 million, up from $858 million at the end of fiscal 2024 [8]. - Long-term debt increased to $1.30 billion from $1.15 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 [8]. - Cash generated from operating activities for the nine months ended May 31, 2025, was approximately $400 million, down from $548 million in the prior year [8]. Dividend and Outlook - A quarterly dividend of 18 cents per share was declared, payable on July 9 to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025 [9]. - The company expects consolidated financial results in Q4 fiscal 2025 to improve from Q3 levels, with anticipated increases in adjusted EBITDA margins for the North America Steel Group and the Europe Steel Group [10][11]. Estimate Trends - Fresh estimates for the company have trended upward over the past month, with a consensus estimate shift of 17.21% [12]. - The stock has an average Growth Score of C and a value grade of B, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of B [13]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [14].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Nucor (NUE) will report quarterly earnings of $2.62 per share, reflecting a 2.2% decline year over year, while revenues are expected to increase by 4.1% to $8.41 billion [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 0.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [1][2] Revenue Projections - 'Net sales to external customers - Steel products' are estimated at $2.53 billion, down 6.5% year over year - 'Net sales to external customers - Steel mills' are projected to reach $5.36 billion, up 10.3% from the previous year - 'Net sales to external customers - Raw materials' are expected to be $517.16 million, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% year over year [4] Sales Volume Estimates - 'Sales Tons to outside customer (Steel) - Total Steel Mills' is expected to reach 5,255 thousand tons, compared to 4,617 thousand tons in the same quarter last year - 'Sales in Tons Outside Customers - Total steel products' is projected at 1,106 thousand tons, up from 1,074 thousand tons year over year [5] Price Projections - 'Average Steel Product Price per ton' is estimated at $2,284 per tonne, down from $2,517 per tonne year over year - 'Average sales price per ton (Steel) - Total Steel Mills' is expected to be $1,024 per tonne, compared to $1,051 per tonne in the same quarter last year [6] Segment-Specific Sales Estimates - 'Sales Tons to outside customer (Steel) - Sheet' is projected at 2,508 thousand tons, down from 2,869 thousand tons year over year - 'Sales Tons to outside customer (Steel) - Bars' is expected to reach 1,698 thousand tons, compared to 2,005 thousand tons in the previous year [7] - 'Sales Tons to outside customer (Steel) - Structural' is estimated at 487 thousand tons, down from 512 thousand tons year over year - 'Sales Tons to outside customer (Steel) - Plate' is projected at 574 thousand tons, up from 448 thousand tons in the same quarter last year [8] Cost Estimates - 'Average scrap cost per ton' is expected to be $389 per tonne, compared to $396 per tonne in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Nucor shares have returned +12.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.9% change, with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) indicating expected performance in line with the overall market [10]

Industry Overview - Steel industry is booming in Mississippi County, Arkansas [1] Challenges - A significant challenge is attracting steelworkers to relocate to its rural towns [1]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the United States and Japan is to maintain a 50% tariff on steel imports [1]

NHK：日美双方同意维持目前50%的钢铁和铝材关税。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Steel Dynamics Inc. reported second quarter 2025 earnings with slight misses on revenue and earnings per share, but investors remain optimistic about future growth due to expanding economic activity and operational expansions [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $4.57 billion, missing expectations of $4.82 billion, but up from $4.37 billion in the previous quarter and only down about 1% year-over-year [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were $2.01, which was 21% lower than analysts' forecasts of $2.56 and down 26% year-over-year [2]. Operational Developments - The company has completed a new steel plant in Texas and is ramping up operations at its $2.7 billion aluminum plant in Mississippi, anticipating renewed economic activity [3]. - Steel Dynamics' steel fabrication business saw a decline of approximately 50% year-over-year and 20% from the prior quarter, but there is a backlog that is up 15% extending into 2026 [6]. Market Context - The Trump administration's tariffs on foreign steel are expected to make U.S. steel manufacturers like Steel Dynamics more attractive, particularly in flat-rolled steel, which is essential for infrastructure projects [4]. - Current analyst sentiment has a consensus price target of $149.33, indicating a potential upside of 14.16% from the current price [5][10]. Stock Performance - Steel Dynamics stock has been trading above its 50-day simple moving average, and if it can maintain this level, it may indicate a potential upward movement [9]. - The stock has gained 17% year-to-date, with a dividend yield of 1.5%, suggesting it may be approaching its three-year average total return of around 33% [10].

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has gained renewed confidence from Wall Street after better-than-expected Q2 2025 results, leading to an upgrade by KeyBanc Capital Markets to Overweight with a price forecast of $14 [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a narrower adjusted loss of $0.50 per share for Q2 2025, beating expectations, with revenue of $4.93 billion [2]. - Steel shipments reached a record 4.3 million net tons, although the average selling price declined. Cost-cutting measures reduced steel unit costs by $15 per ton [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $97 million, and the company lowered its 2025 capital expenditure and SG&A guidance, expecting further cost improvements in the second half [3]. Strategic Insights - CEO Lourenco Goncalves highlighted strong domestic steel demand, a healthy order book, and supportive policy from the Trump administration. The end of a loss-making slab supply deal is expected to enhance margins and accelerate free cash flow and debt reduction [4]. - The upgrade reflects increased confidence in Cleveland-Cliffs' cost-cutting efforts and operational efficiencies, particularly in the high-margin automotive segment, alongside favorable trade protections and reshoring trends [5]. Future Outlook - The analyst revised the 2025 outlook, projecting EBITDA of $419 million, more than double the previous estimate. For Q3 2025, EBITDA expectations were raised to $197 million from $123 million, aided by an additional $20 per ton in cost savings [6]. - For 2026, EPS forecast was raised to $0.42 and EBITDA to $1.86 billion, with potential for EBITDA to exceed $2 billion if U.S. and Canadian steel prices outperform expectations [7]. Valuation and Asset Management - Valuation remains attractive, with shares trading at about 7x 2026 EV/EBITDA, within historical norms. The $14 price forecast reflects a multiple toward the higher end of that range, considering potential asset sales and stronger steel pricing [8]. - The company is exploring non-core asset divestitures, engaging J.P. Morgan to lead the sales process for idle properties, which could yield "billions of dollars" and enhance financial flexibility and shareholder returns [9].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of $299 million or $2.01 per diluted share for Q2 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $533 million [13][19] - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $4.6 billion, exceeding the previous quarter due to higher realized pricing [13] - Operating income increased by 39% sequentially to $383 million, driven by steel metal spread expansion [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel operations generated operating income of $382 million in Q2, over 65% higher sequentially, despite a decline in flat rolled shipments [14][15] - Metal recycling operations reported operating income of $21 million, $4 million lower than the previous quarter due to lower ferrous pricing [15] - Steel fabrication achieved operating income of $93 million, lower than Q1 due to increased substrate costs [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 77%, while the company's mills operated at 85% [28] - Coated flat rolled steel volume and pricing compressed due to an inventory overhang related to imports [29] - The company is the largest North American metals recycler for ferrous and nonferrous metals, with ongoing growth in supplier relationships [15][27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainability, with a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 15% by 2030 [21][22] - The aluminum operations are expected to ramp up production, with a projected EBITDA breakeven before the end of 2025 [18][45] - The company aims to leverage its competitive position in the aluminum market, which is experiencing a domestic supply deficit [39][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the steel demand and pricing dynamics, citing ongoing onshoring activities and infrastructure spending [35][47] - The company anticipates a significant increase in profitability for the aluminum operations in the second half of 2025 [18][90] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong safety culture and operational reliability [12][37] Other Important Information - The company repaid $400 million in senior notes and ended the quarter with liquidity of $1.9 billion [19] - Capital investments for the second half of 2025 are expected to be around $400 million, primarily for aluminum and biocarbon projects [19][20] - The company has a strong cash flow generation capability, with free cash flow increasing from an average of $540 million to $3 billion over the past five years [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the aluminum business and utilization rates - Management confirmed that there is no material change in expectations for aluminum operations, with confidence in achieving EBITDA positivity in the second half of the year [54][57] Question: Sinton mill's EBITDA performance - Management did not disclose specific financial metrics for Sinton but indicated significant improvement compared to Q1, with expectations for further increases in the second half [60][62] Question: Market environment for aluminum ramp-up - Management noted a positive market environment for aluminum, with a growing supply deficit and strong customer interest [65][68] Question: Impact of tariffs on pig iron sourcing - Management clarified that their long products mills do not use pig iron, and they are monitoring the tariff situation closely [72][74] Question: Benefits of biocarbon - Biocarbon is expected to reduce carbon footprint by up to 35% and could potentially replace a significant portion of anthracite usage in steelmaking [83][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter 2025 net income was $299 million, or $2.01 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $533 million [13] - Revenue for the second quarter 2025 was $4.6 billion, exceeding first quarter results due to higher realized deal pricing [13] - Operating income for the second quarter was $383 million, a 39% increase from the first quarter, driven by steel metal spread expansion [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel operations generated operating income of $382 million in the second quarter, over 65% higher sequentially due to an increase in average realized pricing [14] - Metal recycling operations reported operating income of $21 million, $4 million lower than the first quarter due to lower realized ferrous pricing [15] - Steel fabrication achieved operating income of $93 million, lower than the first quarter due to increased steel substrate costs [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 77%, while the company's steel mills operated at a higher rate of 85% [28] - Coated flat rolled steel volume and pricing compressed during the quarter due to an inventory overhang related to imports [29] - North American automotive production estimates for 2025 were revised downward, but the company's specific automotive customer base remained stable [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainability and has set emissions intensity targets aligned with the Paris Agreement [21] - The aluminum operations are expected to ramp up production, with a goal of achieving monthly EBITDA positive results before the end of 2025 [17] - The company aims to leverage its position as the largest North American metals recycler to enhance its competitive advantage [15][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving increased profitability in the third quarter, driven by higher volume and value-added product mix [92] - The company anticipates a meaningful positive shift in financial performance for the Sinton facility for the remainder of the year [37] - Management remains optimistic about steel demand and pricing dynamics, supported by ongoing onshoring activities and infrastructure spending [35] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $200 million of its common stock in the second quarter, representing over 1% of outstanding shares [19] - The company has a liquidity position of $1.9 billion, including cash and short-term investments [18] - The first biocarbon production facility is expected to begin production in the coming months, potentially reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 35% [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on aluminum business and EBITDA profitability - Management confirmed that there is no material change in expectations for aluminum operations achieving EBITDA positivity in the second half of the year [55][58] Question: Sinton mill's EBITDA generation - Management did not disclose specific EBITDA figures for Sinton but indicated significant improvement compared to the first quarter [61][62] Question: Market environment for aluminum ramp-up - Management noted a positive market environment with a growing supply deficit for aluminum, which is beneficial for the company [65][66] Question: Tariff exposure and pig iron sourcing - Management clarified that their long products mills do not use pig iron and emphasized their ability to manage supply chain challenges effectively [73][75] Question: Benefits of biocarbon - Management explained that biocarbon will allow for a reduction in carbon footprint and could potentially replace a portion of anthracite usage in steelmaking [84][86]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. reported a narrower adjusted loss of 50 cents per share for Q2 2025, compared to an expected loss of 68 cents, while revenues decreased by 3.1% year over year to $4.93 billion, surpassing estimates [1][6]. Operational Highlights - Steelmaking revenues were approximately $4.8 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year decline [2]. - The average net selling price per net ton of steel products was $1,015, down 9.8% year over year, missing the estimate of $1,020 [2]. - External sales volumes for steel products increased to roughly 4.3 million net tons, up 7.5% year over year, exceeding the estimate of 4.2 million net tons [2]. Financial Position - As of the end of Q2, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $61 million, a 5% increase from the previous quarter [3]. - Long-term debt rose by 1.7% sequentially to $7.727 billion [3]. - Total liquidity stood at $2.7 billion as of June 30, 2025 [3]. Outlook - The company revised its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting capital expenditures of approximately $600 million, down from $625 million [4]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were lowered to around $575 million from $600 million [4]. - Steel unit cost reductions are targeted at approximately $50 per net ton compared to 2024 [4]. - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) expenses were revised upward to approximately $1.2 billion due to accelerated depreciation related to idled facilities [4]. - Cash pension and Other Post-Employment Benefits (OPEB) payments remain unchanged at approximately $150 million [4]. Price Performance - Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs are down 32.9% over the past year, compared to a 23% decline in its industry [5].