1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted trade flows, forcing Iraq to cut oil production. The situation is evolving uncontrollably, and the supply - demand balance of crude oil has been disrupted, increasing the risk premium of SC oil [1]. - For fuel oil, due to high transportation costs, the supply of low - sulfur arbitrage goods from Northwest Europe in March will decrease. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient. After the holiday, downstream ship - fueling activities will gradually resume, and domestic refinery demand may support high - sulfur demand. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price increases and greater market volatility [3]. - The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. In March, production will increase slightly, and demand depends on the start of terminal projects after the holiday. Geopolitical factors may lead to a sharp rise in BU prices and greater market volatility [4]. - For the polyester sector, due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, some domestic plants have reduced production preventively. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and the polyester sector is expected to follow the price increase [4]. - In the rubber market, global natural rubber production and consumption are expected to increase in January 2026. The domestic rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season, and the probability of a smooth start of tapping in March is high. With the support of export orders, the opening rate is expected to recover, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - In the methanol market, the arrival volume in March will continue to decline, which will support prices. However, the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause significant price fluctuations [5]. - For polyolefins, the market is in a de - stocking rhythm in March, and the fundamental pressure is not large. Geopolitical risks will push up crude oil prices, and polyolefins will follow the price increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [7]. - In the PVC market, supply remains high in March, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. Although there are positive expectations for exports, prices have low elasticity due to factors such as abundant supply and limited demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, due to the conflict, WTI April contract rose $3.33 to $74.56 per barrel, a 4.67% increase; Brent May contract rose $3.66 to $81.4 per barrel, a 4.71% increase. The domestic SC2604 contract rose 78.7 yuan to 641.1 yuan per barrel, a 13.99% increase. Iraq has cut its daily oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels, and may increase the cut to over 3 million barrels per day if the situation worsens. The idle capacity of Middle - East land pipelines cannot effectively compensate for the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 rose 12% to 3473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 11.98% to 4112 yuan per ton. Supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from Northwest Europe will decrease in March, while high - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price increases and greater market volatility [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 rose 4.69% to 3639 yuan per ton. The asphalt market shows weak supply and demand in the short term. Geopolitical factors may lead to a sharp rise in prices and greater market volatility [4]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5608 yuan per ton, up 1.01%; EG2605 closed at 4025 yuan per ton, up 2.55%. Due to concerns about raw material supply, some domestic plants have reduced production preventively. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and the polyester sector is expected to follow the price increase [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 410 yuan to 16835 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 370 yuan to 13500 yuan per ton. Global natural rubber production and consumption are expected to increase in January 2026. The domestic rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2505 yuan per ton. The arrival volume in March will continue to decline, which will support prices. However, the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause significant price fluctuations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7100 - 7200 yuan per ton. The market is in a de - stocking rhythm in March, and geopolitical risks will push up crude oil prices, and polyolefins will follow the price increase [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. Supply remains high in March, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. Although there are positive expectations for exports, prices have low elasticity [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on March 4, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - Two Iraqi oil officials said that due to the Iranian crisis, Iraq has cut its daily oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels, and may increase the cut to over 3 million barrels per day if oil tankers cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz [10]. - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data shows that last week, US crude oil and distillate inventories increased, while gasoline inventories decreased. As of the week ending February 27, US crude oil inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 516,000 barrels [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document provides line charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][15][17][18][20][21][22][24] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document provides line charts of the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [26][27][30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides line charts of the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [33][35][39][41][43][45] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The document provides line charts of the spreads between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil's domestic and international markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [48][50][51][53] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document provides line charts of the production profits of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [55][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and MEG are all in a range - bound market. PX and PTA follow cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG [1][8] - The industry may enter a positive feedback pattern under the expectation of downstream order recovery, and attention should be paid to spring - summer orders [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous trading day were 7382, 5260, 3700, 6658, and 483.6 respectively, with price drops of - 50, - 52, - 47, - 64, and - 4.7, and declines of - 0.67%, - 0.98%, - 1.25%, - 0.95%, and - 0.96% [2] - The PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 spreads on the previous trading day were - 6, - 10, - 134, - 86, and 2.2 respectively, with price changes of - 26, - 24, - 16, 12, and - 2.8 compared to the previous day [2] Spot Market - The previous day's prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, Naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 930.67 dollars/ton, 5235 yuan/ton, 3612 yuan/ton, 632.5 dollars/ton, and 72.04 dollars/barrel respectively, with price changes of 2, - 50, - 46, 16.5, and 1.25 compared to the previous day [2] - The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 297.55, 412.68, 106.87, 240.63, and - 4.34 respectively, with price changes of - 2.66, - 17.01, 81.21, 40.06, and 0 compared to the previous day [2] PX Fundamental Data - On February 26, the PX price rebounded slightly, with two April Asian spot transactions at 929. The PX valuation on that day was 931 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars from February 25 [3] - A 700,000 - ton PX plant in East China postponed its maintenance from early March to early April for 50 - 60 days, and a 2 - million - ton PX plant of a large PX manufacturer in East China plans to shut down for maintenance for 30 - 40 days in mid - March [3] - The operating rate of PX on February 26 was estimated to be 89%, the same as on February 12 before the Chinese New Year holiday [5] PTA Fundamental Data - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is expected to restart on February 27, and a 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to restart at the end of February or early March [5] - By Thursday, the domestic PTA load was adjusted to 76.6% [5] MEG Fundamental Data - As of February 26, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 79.02%, and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 84.03% [5] Polyester Fundamental Data - A low - melting short - fiber plant in China has restarted, and a direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plant in Jiangyin has basically returned to full - load operation [5] - As of Thursday, the domestic polyester load was around 79.7%, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 68% [5][6] - On February 26, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still sluggish, with an average sales rate of just over 20% by 3:30 pm. The sales rates of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plants were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 46% by 3:00 pm [6] Suggestions - For PX, go long on PXN and conduct a 5 - 9 calendar spread. The supply side has a high operating rate, and attention should be paid to plant maintenance. The demand side is expected to enter a positive feedback pattern [7][8] - For PTA, although the valuation has weakened, it will enter a de - stocking pattern from March, and attention should be paid to spring - summer orders [8] - For MEG, it is in a range - bound market. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. Pay attention to the rotation maintenance of Yulin Chemical's plant, and the price is expected to operate within a range [8]

Group 1: Domestic Futures Market Overview - The domestic futures market exhibited a weak trend from February 2 to February 6, with most commodities primarily declining due to fluctuating macroeconomic expectations, weakening fundamentals for certain products, and international market sentiment [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil decreased by 0.20%, while crude oil increased by 0.26%. In the black series, coking coal fell by 1.94%, and iron ore dropped by 3.95%. Basic metals saw declines with tin down 2.67%, copper down 1.82%, and aluminum down 2.85%. Precious metals experienced significant volatility, with gold down 3.95% and silver down 25.56% [1] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - As of February 6, lithium carbonate futures prices showed a downward trend, with the main contract LC2605 closing at 132,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78% [2] - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a destocking phase, with weekly production at 20,744 tons, down 825 tons from the previous week, and inventory decreasing by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons [2] - Demand remains strong, particularly in energy storage batteries, while the export tax rebate policy has led to increased exports in power batteries [2][3] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have shown significant volatility in January, with both futures and spot gold returning above $4,900/oz in February, with COMEX gold and London gold reporting weekly increases of 1.65% and 1.77%, respectively [4] - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand is expected to exceed 5,000 tons by Q4 2025, with total demand value soaring to $555 billion, a 45% increase from the previous year [4] - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing gold reserves, reflecting a trend towards diversifying reserve assets and enhancing the safety and stability of these assets [6][7] Group 4: Margin Adjustments in Precious Metals - On February 5, the CME Group announced an increase in margin requirements for precious metals, with initial margins for gold futures rising from 8% to 9% for non-high-risk accounts and from 8.8% to 9.9% for high-risk accounts [8] - This adjustment is seen as an emergency measure in response to extreme market conditions, particularly following significant price drops in precious metals [8][9] - The adjustments aim to mitigate risks associated with high leverage in the precious metals market, particularly after substantial price fluctuations [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has turned down by 1%, currently priced at 19,020 yuan per kilogram, after previously rising over 4% [1]

Market Movement - COMEX silver has broken down below $70 per ounce, with London spot silver dipping below $67 per ounce[1] - After a rebound in the first three days of the week, silver has turned downward, reaching new lows[1] Margin Requirements - On February 5, the CME raised the margin requirements for gold and silver futures, with gold's new margin set at 9% and silver's at 18%[1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments effective February 9, with gold futures' price limit set at 17% and silver's at 20%[1] - The margin for silver futures will be 21% for hedged positions and 22% for general positions[1] Market Volatility - Silver's volatility is significantly higher than gold's, attributed to its smaller market size and greater speculative nature[1] - Investors are advised to control their positions and manage risks due to the short-term market fluctuations[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets have released emotional risks and are expected to be mainly in a short - term shock pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber - Futures prices of short - fiber 2603, 2604, and 2605 decreased by 172, 180, and 248 respectively compared to the previous day; PF03 - 04 increased by 8, PF04 - 05 increased by 68, and the PF main contract basis increased by 75 [1] - The main contract's open interest decreased by 27,390, and the trading volume decreased by 11,706 [1] - The East China spot price decreased by 105, and the sales - to - production ratio decreased by 11% to 44% [1] Bottle - chip - Futures prices of bottle - chip 2603, 2604, and 2605 decreased by 170, 178, and 182 respectively compared to the previous day; PR03 - 04 increased by 8, PR04 - 05 increased by 4, and the PR main contract basis increased by 32 [1] - The main contract's open interest decreased by 6,735, and the trading volume decreased by 15,762 [1] - The East China spot price decreased by 150, and the South China spot price decreased by 100 [1] Spot News Short - fiber - Short - fiber futures dropped significantly. Factory quotes were mostly stable, with some down by 100 yuan. Due to the futures decline, traders and futures - cash merchants had increased trading volume. The mainstream negotiation range for semi - bright 1.4D was 6,400 - 6,700. The average sales - to - production ratio was 44%, and the short - fiber load dropped to 83.5% [1] Bottle - chip - Upstream polyester raw materials dropped significantly. Polyester bottle - chip factories lowered their quotes by 30 - 150 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was okay, with some large factories having large - volume transactions. Orders from February to March were mostly traded at 6,130 - 6,210 yuan/ton ex - factory, with a small amount slightly higher at 6,280 - 6,340 yuan/ton ex - factory and slightly lower at 6,100 - 6,120 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime session of the main contract futures price fluctuation was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has experienced a significant decline of 6%, closing at 156,260 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The drop in lithium carbonate prices indicates potential volatility in the market, which may affect companies involved in lithium production and battery manufacturing [1] - The current price level of 156,260 yuan per ton reflects a critical point for stakeholders in the lithium supply chain, as it may influence future investment decisions [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that lithium carbonate futures have hit the limit down, with a decline of 9%, settling at 146,200 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the fluctuation in lithium carbonate futures, with the main contract experiencing a midday decline after previously reaching a 12% increase [1] - By the afternoon, the daily increase in lithium carbonate futures narrowed to 7%, indicating volatility in the market [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that lithium carbonate futures experienced a decline in the afternoon session, with the increase narrowing to 1% after previously rising over 5% [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the main contract for lithium carbonate futures showed volatility, reflecting market fluctuations [1] - The significant rise of over 5% earlier in the day suggests strong market interest or demand before the subsequent decline [1]