Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the domestic asphalt futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future. This is due to the significant weakening of the cost support for asphalt caused by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices. Meanwhile, the supply pressure of domestic asphalt remains high with a steady increase in capacity utilization, while the downstream demand has entered the off - season and the procurement rhythm has slowed down [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Cost Support Weakening - Global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, and the expectation of supply surplus has once again dominated the crude oil futures market. US crude oil production has reached a record high, and although OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, the previous cumulative production increase has made up for the previous production cuts. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks has raised the expectation of Russia's crude oil return, and it is expected that over 80 million barrels of floating storage crude oil will enter the market, further intensifying the supply surplus [2]. - The weak demand from major global economies, along with the weakening of the oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread, highlights the weak supply - demand structure of the oil market. After the oil price returned to a weak trend, the cost support for asphalt futures has weakened [2]. Limited Supply Decline - In December, although some refineries such as Hebei Xinhai stopped asphalt production and some in East China maintained low - to - medium production loads, others like Guangzhou Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production, and Sinopec and Liaohe Petrochemical increased production. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 29.9%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and that of 77 heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point weekly decrease. Overall, the decline in domestic asphalt supply pressure is limited [2]. Downstream Enters Off - season - Affected by a new round of cold air, the surface construction of domestic asphalt roads has decreased, and the shipment volume in the Northeast and East China regions has significantly declined. In terms of modified asphalt, due to the expansion of the shutdown scope in the North, the supply of modified asphalt has significantly decreased. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 9.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 0.5 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [3]. - Under the influence of weak supply and demand, the domestic asphalt social inventory has slightly decreased. The social inventory in East China has been significantly depleted because some projects are in the final stage and mainly consume inventory [3].

Group 1 - Domestic refinery capacity utilization is steadily increasing, but asphalt supply pressure remains significant. With the onset of colder weather, road construction has stalled, leading to weakened asphalt demand and a gradual increase in social inventory [1] - Global crude oil inventories are accumulating, leading to a supply surplus expectation that dominates the crude oil futures market. U.S. crude oil production continues to reach historical highs, driven by shale oil technology advancements and policy support. Although OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases until Q1 2026, prior cumulative increases have already offset earlier production cuts [2] - Despite some refineries reducing asphalt production, overall domestic asphalt capacity utilization has only seen a limited decline. As of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate for 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 29.9%, down 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [3] Group 2 - The downstream sector is entering a low-demand season, with reduced asphalt road surface construction due to a new wave of cold air. Significant decreases in shipments are observed in Northeast and East China regions [4] - The domestic asphalt social inventory has slightly decreased, particularly in East China, where some projects are in the final stages, focusing on inventory consumption [4] - Overall, the combination of significantly lower domestic and international crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for asphalt. With steady supply pressure and a weak demand backdrop, the outlook for domestic asphalt futures is expected to remain weak [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract hitting a new low at 2571.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.87% [1] Group 2 - The current market for aluminum oxide shows a weak performance, with institutions noting a lack of willingness to reduce production despite the end-of-year negotiations for long-term contracts [2] - Recent low spot transaction prices have negatively impacted market sentiment, while previous expectations for production cuts have not materialized, leading to a resurgence of bearish sentiment due to oversupply [2] - The spot market continues to see declining procurement prices, with low-priced goods entering the market, further pressuring aluminum oxide futures prices [2] - Social inventory of aluminum oxide is on the rise, contributing to the bearish outlook, with no improvement in the overall weak fundamentals expected [2] - Some aluminum oxide plants are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in short-term production; however, the overall production remains high, and there is potential for recovery in the future [2] - Downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased, leading to a modest rise in aluminum oxide consumption, but the overall increase is limited [2] - The market remains characterized by oversupply, with increasing imports and decreasing exports, making it difficult for prices to recover in the short term [2] - There may be opportunities for arbitrage due to the widening gap between futures and spot prices, suggesting a potential for short-term price rebounds [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is currently in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With continuous release of new production capacity, weak real - estate demand, high inventory, and weak cost support, the PVC futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cost Support Weakening - The price of calcium carbide, the main raw material for calcium carbide - based PVC, is continuously low, and the international crude oil market is weak, which weakens the cost support for ethylene - based PVC [2]. - Although some enterprises are in a loss state, the "alkali - for - chlorine" model of chlor - alkali integrated enterprises maintains production, and the cost's regulatory effect on supply is limited [3]. High Supply Pressure - In 2025, domestic PVC new production capacity features large - scale, technology switching, and concentrated production. The annual planned/expected new capacity is 2.5 - 3.5 million tons, and the actual new capacity is about 2.5 million tons, pushing the total domestic PVC capacity close to or exceeding 30 million tons [3]. - As of now, 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity have been added this year, and another 0.5 million tons are to be fully released in the fourth quarter [3]. - After the holiday, the overall operating rate of PVC enterprises remains high, and the supply pressure has not been significantly relieved [4]. - The new PVC capacity is mainly ethylene - based, which has a cost - squeezing effect on calcium carbide - based PVC and intensifies industry competition [4]. Persistent Weak Demand - PVC is a typical post - real - estate cycle product, and the real - estate market has been weak since 2025. In the first three quarters of 2025, real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, new commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5%, and sales volume decreased by 7.9%, which directly suppresses the procurement demand in the hard - product fields such as pipes and profiles [4]. - Although the operating rate of some downstream enterprises has slightly increased after the weather turns cool, orders are generally insufficient, and enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on low - price rigid demand [5]. - The traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" did not arrive as expected, and the demand improvement expectation after the holiday was disappointed [5]. High Inventory Pressure - As of the week of October 17, PVC social inventory reached 1.0338 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.52%. The PVC futures warehouse receipt volume also reached a historical peak, indicating strong hedging willingness in the industry and difficult spot sales [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PVC futures market continues to show a weak downward trend post-National Day holiday, with the 2601 contract breaking through key support levels of 4800 yuan/ton and 4700 yuan/ton, reaching a low of 4644 yuan/ton [1] Cost Support Weakening - PVC prices lack effective support from the cost side, as the price of calcium carbide, a key raw material for calcium carbide method PVC, remains low due to the impact of staggered production in Inner Mongolia [2] - International crude oil prices have also been weak, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to a low of $56.63 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures falling to $60.11 per barrel, both hitting new lows since the second quarter of this year [2] - The expectation of oversupply in the global oil market continues to weigh on the outlook for oil prices, which in turn weakens the cost support for ethylene-based PVC [2] - Despite some companies facing losses, integrated chlor-alkali enterprises maintain production through a "sodium carbonate compensating for chlorine" model, resulting in stable PVC operating rates above 76% [2] Significant Supply Pressure - In 2025, new domestic PVC production capacity is characterized by large scale, technology switching, and concentrated commissioning, with an expected annual increase of 2.5 to 3.5 million tons [3] - As of now, 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity has been added this year, with major plants like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua already in stable operation [3] - The overall operating rate of PVC enterprises remains high despite some planned maintenance, indicating persistent supply pressure [3] - New capacity primarily utilizes the ethylene method, which is more sensitive to crude oil and ethylene price trends, intensifying competition within the industry [3] Weak Demand Situation - PVC demand is closely tied to the real estate market, which has been weak since 2025, with real estate development investment down by 13.9% and new housing sales area declining by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - The weak construction and sales data directly suppresses the procurement demand for hard products like pipes and profiles [4] - Despite a slight recovery in downstream operating rates, overall orders remain insufficient, leading to pressure on profitability and a focus on low-price essential stock replenishment [6] - High inventory levels continue to accumulate, with PVC social inventory reaching 1.0338 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 33.52% [6] - The current PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with multiple negative factors contributing to a lack of upward momentum [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu steel plate market experienced a pattern of "initial rise followed by stability, with a tendency to weaken" during the week of August 12-16, influenced by fluctuations in the futures market and changes in terminal demand [1] Price Trend Analysis by Product Type - **Rebar**: Prices slightly decreased due to weak futures market impact, with HRB400E Ф20mm rebar priced at 3370 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the beginning of the week. Demand remained weak, focusing mainly on essential orders [4] - **Medium and Heavy Plates**: Prices remained stable but showed signs of weakness, with mainstream Q235B plates priced at 5240 CNY/ton. Inventory levels were around 83,800 tons, slightly down from the previous week, indicating slow inventory turnover [4] - **Low Alloy High Strength Plates**: Prices remained stable, with Q460C plates priced at 4190 CNY/ton. However, market demand was weak, leading to poor overall sales [5] - **Stainless Steel Plates**: Prices for 316L/NO.1 stainless steel plates remained at 28700 CNY/ton, with limited market improvement and a prevailing wait-and-see attitude among buyers [6] Market Dynamics Analysis - **Futures Market Impact**: The black futures market showed weak fluctuations, directly affecting the sentiment in the spot market, leading to reduced purchasing plans from end-users [7] - **Supply and Demand Imbalance**: Demand recovery in downstream infrastructure and real estate sectors was below expectations, with purchases mainly consisting of sporadic orders. Despite some production cuts from steel mills, overall inventory levels remained high, making it difficult to resolve supply-demand conflicts in the short term [7] - **Weakening Cost Support**: Prices for raw materials like iron ore and coke slightly declined, reducing cost support for steel prices, which increased downward pressure on steel prices amid bearish market sentiment [8] Behavior of Steel Mills and Traders - **Steel Mill Pricing Strategies**: Mainstream steel mills adjusted their ex-factory prices in line with market fluctuations, with some adopting flexible pricing models to encourage transactions, keeping adjustments within 20 CNY/ton [9] - **Trader Operations**: Most traders focused on reducing inventory, leading to noticeable price reductions. Some traders attempted to attract customers through discount promotions and increased financing services, but with limited success [9] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - **Short-term Forecast**: The Chengdu steel plate market is expected to continue a weak and fluctuating trend in the coming week, with no significant positive stimuli for demand and uncertainty in futures trends, leading to potential further slight price reductions of 20-30 CNY/ton [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In the context of the decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the cost support for styrene weakens. Meanwhile, the supply pressure of styrene both at home and abroad increases, while downstream demand is mediocre and even shows a slight contraction, leading to the accumulation of styrene port and factory inventories. It is expected that the domestic styrene futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [3][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost Support Weakening - The main raw materials of styrene are pure benzene and ethylene, and crude oil price fluctuations directly affect styrene production costs. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the cumulative increase from April to August reached 1.919 million barrels per day, leading to a weak downward trend in crude oil futures prices and weakening styrene cost support [3]. - With the weakening of the previous macro - sentiment drive, the oil market is temporarily dominated by the supply - strengthening logic, and it is expected that the domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [4]. Supply Pressure Rebound - As of the week of August 6, the domestic styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 78.92%, a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week; the overall production was 361,500 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons from the previous week, with an increase of only 0.11% [4]. - As of the end of July, the total domestic styrene production capacity was 21.792 million tons. In August, the styrene plants of Hebei Xuyang and Jinxi Petrochemical resumed operation, and there were few planned maintenance, so the overall domestic styrene maintenance loss continued to decline. If there are no sudden styrene plant maintenance situations, the domestic styrene production is expected to increase to about 1.63 million tons. In addition, multiple sets of pure benzene and styrene - related plants are expected to be put into production in August, and the domestic styrene supply is expected to remain at a high level [5]. Inventory Overall Upturn - In July, the overall demand of the three major downstream sectors of domestic styrene decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 25,200 tons. In June, China's styrene imports were 21,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.78% and a year - on - year increase of 44.91% [5]. - As of the end of July, the total sample inventory of Jiangsu styrene ports in China reached 164,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,200 tons. As of July 31, the sample inventory of styrene plants was 217,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,400 tons, an increase of 8.70% [6].

Group 1 - PVC futures main contract experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 4930.00 yuan, closing at 4920.00 yuan with a 0.70% increase [1] - Institutions predict PVC prices will remain weak due to increased supply and low demand, with expectations of low-level fluctuations [1][2] - The supply side is pressured by new production capacities from companies like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua, while demand remains sluggish, particularly in the real estate sector [1][2] Group 2 - The Indian PVC BIS policy has been postponed for another six months, which may positively impact future PVC exports [2] - The market anticipates an improvement in the oversupply situation due to the impact of anti-involution policies and sentiment in the building materials sector [2] - The expected trading range for the PVC 2509 contract is between 4800 and 5100 yuan, indicating low-level fluctuations [2]