投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 PVC 短期偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 国际原油价格重心下移，直接压制乙烯成本，使得乙烯法 PVC 成本支撑弱化。不过，尽管部分企业 处于亏损状态，但氯碱一体化企业凭借"以碱补氯"模式维持生产，PVC 开工率并未因利润问题显著下降， 成本对供应的调节作用有限。 缺乏向上驱动 尽管节后部分装置进入检修期，但新增产能持续释放、房地产需求疲软、库存高企等基本面压力仍难 以化解，叠加外围能源市场整体偏弱运行，PVC 期货缺乏有效成本支撑与需求拉动，整体呈现供强需弱的 格局。预计后市 PVC 期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 尽管国庆假期后，国内 PVC 期货市场延续弱势下行的格局，其中，2601 合约连续失守 4800 元/吨、 4700 元/吨两大整数关口支撑，最低下探至 4644 元/吨。 成本支撑弱化 从成本端来看，PVC 价格缺乏有效的支撑。电石法 PVC 的主要原料电石价格持续低迷，受内蒙古错 峰用电影响虽有短期波动，但整体仍处于近年来的低位。乙烯法 PVC 方面，国际原油市场近期表现弱势， 其中，美国 WTI 原油期货价格最低 ...

供应压力较大 从供应端来看，2025年，国内PVC新增产能呈现"规模大、技术切换、集中投产"的特点。上半年，国内PVC装置 产能已落地约100万吨，三季度集中释放产能80万～100万吨，四季度剩余装置择机试车，全年扩产高峰集中在8 —10月。全年计划／预期新增产能250万～350万吨，最终投产节奏受项目进度影响，实际落地量在250万吨左 右，这将使国内PVC总产能逼近或突破3000万吨。 截至目前，年内已新增PVC产能达145万吨，包括万华化学50万吨和天津渤化40万吨等大型装置均已实现量产或 稳定运行。四季度仍有青岛海湾20万吨、甘肃耀望30万吨等合计50万吨产能待完全释放。 与此同时，节后PVC企业整体开工率维持高位，虽有山东信发、鲁泰化学、宁夏金昱元以及新疆天业天能二 厂、新疆中泰托克逊厂区等企业计划检修，影响产能利用率，但整体开工负荷仍稳定在76%以上，供应压力未见 明显缓解。 尽管国庆假期后，国内PVC期货市场延续弱势下行的格局，其中，2601合约连续失守4800元／吨、4700元／吨 两大整数关口支撑，最低下探至4644元／吨。 成本支撑弱化 从成本端来看，PVC价格缺乏有效的支撑。电石法PVC的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu steel plate market experienced a pattern of "initial rise followed by stability, with a tendency to weaken" during the week of August 12-16, influenced by fluctuations in the futures market and changes in terminal demand [1] Price Trend Analysis by Product Type - **Rebar**: Prices slightly decreased due to weak futures market impact, with HRB400E Ф20mm rebar priced at 3370 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the beginning of the week. Demand remained weak, focusing mainly on essential orders [4] - **Medium and Heavy Plates**: Prices remained stable but showed signs of weakness, with mainstream Q235B plates priced at 5240 CNY/ton. Inventory levels were around 83,800 tons, slightly down from the previous week, indicating slow inventory turnover [4] - **Low Alloy High Strength Plates**: Prices remained stable, with Q460C plates priced at 4190 CNY/ton. However, market demand was weak, leading to poor overall sales [5] - **Stainless Steel Plates**: Prices for 316L/NO.1 stainless steel plates remained at 28700 CNY/ton, with limited market improvement and a prevailing wait-and-see attitude among buyers [6] Market Dynamics Analysis - **Futures Market Impact**: The black futures market showed weak fluctuations, directly affecting the sentiment in the spot market, leading to reduced purchasing plans from end-users [7] - **Supply and Demand Imbalance**: Demand recovery in downstream infrastructure and real estate sectors was below expectations, with purchases mainly consisting of sporadic orders. Despite some production cuts from steel mills, overall inventory levels remained high, making it difficult to resolve supply-demand conflicts in the short term [7] - **Weakening Cost Support**: Prices for raw materials like iron ore and coke slightly declined, reducing cost support for steel prices, which increased downward pressure on steel prices amid bearish market sentiment [8] Behavior of Steel Mills and Traders - **Steel Mill Pricing Strategies**: Mainstream steel mills adjusted their ex-factory prices in line with market fluctuations, with some adopting flexible pricing models to encourage transactions, keeping adjustments within 20 CNY/ton [9] - **Trader Operations**: Most traders focused on reducing inventory, leading to noticeable price reductions. Some traders attempted to attract customers through discount promotions and increased financing services, but with limited success [9] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - **Short-term Forecast**: The Chengdu steel plate market is expected to continue a weak and fluctuating trend in the coming week, with no significant positive stimuli for demand and uncertainty in futures trends, leading to potential further slight price reductions of 20-30 CNY/ton [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In the context of the decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the cost support for styrene weakens. Meanwhile, the supply pressure of styrene both at home and abroad increases, while downstream demand is mediocre and even shows a slight contraction, leading to the accumulation of styrene port and factory inventories. It is expected that the domestic styrene futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [3][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost Support Weakening - The main raw materials of styrene are pure benzene and ethylene, and crude oil price fluctuations directly affect styrene production costs. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the cumulative increase from April to August reached 1.919 million barrels per day, leading to a weak downward trend in crude oil futures prices and weakening styrene cost support [3]. - With the weakening of the previous macro - sentiment drive, the oil market is temporarily dominated by the supply - strengthening logic, and it is expected that the domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [4]. Supply Pressure Rebound - As of the week of August 6, the domestic styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 78.92%, a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week; the overall production was 361,500 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons from the previous week, with an increase of only 0.11% [4]. - As of the end of July, the total domestic styrene production capacity was 21.792 million tons. In August, the styrene plants of Hebei Xuyang and Jinxi Petrochemical resumed operation, and there were few planned maintenance, so the overall domestic styrene maintenance loss continued to decline. If there are no sudden styrene plant maintenance situations, the domestic styrene production is expected to increase to about 1.63 million tons. In addition, multiple sets of pure benzene and styrene - related plants are expected to be put into production in August, and the domestic styrene supply is expected to remain at a high level [5]. Inventory Overall Upturn - In July, the overall demand of the three major downstream sectors of domestic styrene decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 25,200 tons. In June, China's styrene imports were 21,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.78% and a year - on - year increase of 44.91% [5]. - As of the end of July, the total sample inventory of Jiangsu styrene ports in China reached 164,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,200 tons. As of July 31, the sample inventory of styrene plants was 217,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,400 tons, an increase of 8.70% [6].

Group 1 - PVC futures main contract experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 4930.00 yuan, closing at 4920.00 yuan with a 0.70% increase [1] - Institutions predict PVC prices will remain weak due to increased supply and low demand, with expectations of low-level fluctuations [1][2] - The supply side is pressured by new production capacities from companies like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua, while demand remains sluggish, particularly in the real estate sector [1][2] Group 2 - The Indian PVC BIS policy has been postponed for another six months, which may positively impact future PVC exports [2] - The market anticipates an improvement in the oversupply situation due to the impact of anti-involution policies and sentiment in the building materials sector [2] - The expected trading range for the PVC 2509 contract is between 4800 and 5100 yuan, indicating low-level fluctuations [2]