投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 供需结构偏弱 沥青弱势难改 宝城期货 陈栋 目前，国内炼厂产能利用率稳中有升，沥青供应压力不减。北方降温以后，道路施工停滞，沥青需求 转弱，社会库存稳步增加。在供需结构失衡、成本支撑减弱下，本周以来，沥青期货主力 2602 合约呈现 震荡偏弱的走势，价格重心下移。预计后市沥青期货难改弱势格局。 成本支撑弱化 全球原油库存不断累积，供应过剩预期重新主导原油期货市场。数据显示，美国原油产量屡创历史新 高，页岩油技术革新与政策支持推动其保持强劲增产态势。虽然 OPEC+决定 2026 年一季度暂停增产，但 此前累计增产已回补前期减产量。俄乌和平谈判推进，俄罗斯原油回归预期升温。市场预期在西方制裁解 除后，俄罗斯超 8000 万桶海上浮仓原油将加速入市，进一步加剧供应过剩局面。 与此同时，需求端疲软构成关键压制。全球主要经济体原油消费不及预期，原油市场月差及成品油裂 解价差走弱，凸显油市供需偏弱结构。在油价重返弱势以后，沥青期货的成本支撑弱化。 供应回落有限 步入 12 月，虽然河北鑫海装置持续停产沥青，华东主营炼厂维持中低负荷生产，但是广州石化 ...

目前，国内炼厂产能利用率稳中有升，沥青供应压力不减。北方降温以后，道路施工停滞，沥青需求转 弱，社会库存稳步增加。在供需结构失衡、成本支撑减弱下，本周以来，沥青期货主力2602合约呈现震 荡偏弱的走势，价格重心下移。预计后市沥青期货难改弱势格局。 成本支撑弱化 全球原油库存不断累积，供应过剩预期重新主导原油期货市场。数据显示，美国原油产量屡创历史新 高，页岩油技术革新与政策支持推动其保持强劲增产态势。虽然OPEC+决定2026年一季度暂停增产， 但此前累计增产已回补前期减产量。俄乌和平谈判推进，俄罗斯原油回归预期升温。市场预期在西方制 裁解除后，俄罗斯超8000万桶海上浮仓原油将加速入市，进一步加剧供应过剩局面。 编辑：张瑶 下游步入淡季 步入12月，虽然河北鑫海装置持续停产沥青，华东主营炼厂维持中低负荷生产，但是广州石化和齐鲁石 化复产沥青，中国石化和辽河石化完成提产，国内沥青产能利用率整体回落幅度有限。据机构发布的数 据，截至2025年12月12日当周，国内92家沥青炼厂产能利用率为29.9%，环比下滑0.2个百分点，国内重 交沥青77家企业产能利用率为27.8%，周度走低0.1个百分点。整体来看，国内沥 ...

国信期货表示，现货市场采购价格继续下跌，低价货源陆续流出，再度给氧化铝期价带来向下压力。另 一方面，氧化铝社会库存持续累库，亦对价格形成利空。整体而言，氧化铝弱基本面无改善，价格预计 延续弱势，持续关注产能运行情况以及库存动态变化。 新湖期货分析称，近期陆续有氧化铝厂实施焙烧炉检修，使得短期产量有所下降，但降幅有限，产量维 持在较高水平，且后期回补的可能性大。下游电解铝运行产能轻微增加，氧化铝消费稳中略增，总体增 量有限。进口量增加，出口量下降。供应过剩的格局未有改变，库存继续攀升。短期价格弱势难改，考 虑到期现价差扩大，或有套利操作行为，使得期货价格阶段性反弹。建议维持反弹做空思路。 12月5日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌不一。其中，氧化铝期货延续弱势，主力合约再创新低，现报 2571.0元/吨，跌幅达1.87%。 目前来看，氧化铝行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于氧化铝后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 铜冠金源期货指出，年底洽谈长单时期，氧化铝减产意愿仍弱。近两日有极低现货成交价格出现，打压 市场氛围。另外前期减产预期迟迟未能兑现，成本支撑逻辑弱化，供应过剩的利空情绪重新主导市场， 氧化铝 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is currently in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With continuous release of new production capacity, weak real - estate demand, high inventory, and weak cost support, the PVC futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cost Support Weakening - The price of calcium carbide, the main raw material for calcium carbide - based PVC, is continuously low, and the international crude oil market is weak, which weakens the cost support for ethylene - based PVC [2]. - Although some enterprises are in a loss state, the "alkali - for - chlorine" model of chlor - alkali integrated enterprises maintains production, and the cost's regulatory effect on supply is limited [3]. High Supply Pressure - In 2025, domestic PVC new production capacity features large - scale, technology switching, and concentrated production. The annual planned/expected new capacity is 2.5 - 3.5 million tons, and the actual new capacity is about 2.5 million tons, pushing the total domestic PVC capacity close to or exceeding 30 million tons [3]. - As of now, 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity have been added this year, and another 0.5 million tons are to be fully released in the fourth quarter [3]. - After the holiday, the overall operating rate of PVC enterprises remains high, and the supply pressure has not been significantly relieved [4]. - The new PVC capacity is mainly ethylene - based, which has a cost - squeezing effect on calcium carbide - based PVC and intensifies industry competition [4]. Persistent Weak Demand - PVC is a typical post - real - estate cycle product, and the real - estate market has been weak since 2025. In the first three quarters of 2025, real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, new commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5%, and sales volume decreased by 7.9%, which directly suppresses the procurement demand in the hard - product fields such as pipes and profiles [4]. - Although the operating rate of some downstream enterprises has slightly increased after the weather turns cool, orders are generally insufficient, and enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on low - price rigid demand [5]. - The traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" did not arrive as expected, and the demand improvement expectation after the holiday was disappointed [5]. High Inventory Pressure - As of the week of October 17, PVC social inventory reached 1.0338 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.52%. The PVC futures warehouse receipt volume also reached a historical peak, indicating strong hedging willingness in the industry and difficult spot sales [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PVC futures market continues to show a weak downward trend post-National Day holiday, with the 2601 contract breaking through key support levels of 4800 yuan/ton and 4700 yuan/ton, reaching a low of 4644 yuan/ton [1] Cost Support Weakening - PVC prices lack effective support from the cost side, as the price of calcium carbide, a key raw material for calcium carbide method PVC, remains low due to the impact of staggered production in Inner Mongolia [2] - International crude oil prices have also been weak, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to a low of $56.63 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures falling to $60.11 per barrel, both hitting new lows since the second quarter of this year [2] - The expectation of oversupply in the global oil market continues to weigh on the outlook for oil prices, which in turn weakens the cost support for ethylene-based PVC [2] - Despite some companies facing losses, integrated chlor-alkali enterprises maintain production through a "sodium carbonate compensating for chlorine" model, resulting in stable PVC operating rates above 76% [2] Significant Supply Pressure - In 2025, new domestic PVC production capacity is characterized by large scale, technology switching, and concentrated commissioning, with an expected annual increase of 2.5 to 3.5 million tons [3] - As of now, 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity has been added this year, with major plants like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua already in stable operation [3] - The overall operating rate of PVC enterprises remains high despite some planned maintenance, indicating persistent supply pressure [3] - New capacity primarily utilizes the ethylene method, which is more sensitive to crude oil and ethylene price trends, intensifying competition within the industry [3] Weak Demand Situation - PVC demand is closely tied to the real estate market, which has been weak since 2025, with real estate development investment down by 13.9% and new housing sales area declining by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - The weak construction and sales data directly suppresses the procurement demand for hard products like pipes and profiles [4] - Despite a slight recovery in downstream operating rates, overall orders remain insufficient, leading to pressure on profitability and a focus on low-price essential stock replenishment [6] - High inventory levels continue to accumulate, with PVC social inventory reaching 1.0338 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 33.52% [6] - The current PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with multiple negative factors contributing to a lack of upward momentum [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu steel plate market experienced a pattern of "initial rise followed by stability, with a tendency to weaken" during the week of August 12-16, influenced by fluctuations in the futures market and changes in terminal demand [1] Price Trend Analysis by Product Type - **Rebar**: Prices slightly decreased due to weak futures market impact, with HRB400E Ф20mm rebar priced at 3370 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the beginning of the week. Demand remained weak, focusing mainly on essential orders [4] - **Medium and Heavy Plates**: Prices remained stable but showed signs of weakness, with mainstream Q235B plates priced at 5240 CNY/ton. Inventory levels were around 83,800 tons, slightly down from the previous week, indicating slow inventory turnover [4] - **Low Alloy High Strength Plates**: Prices remained stable, with Q460C plates priced at 4190 CNY/ton. However, market demand was weak, leading to poor overall sales [5] - **Stainless Steel Plates**: Prices for 316L/NO.1 stainless steel plates remained at 28700 CNY/ton, with limited market improvement and a prevailing wait-and-see attitude among buyers [6] Market Dynamics Analysis - **Futures Market Impact**: The black futures market showed weak fluctuations, directly affecting the sentiment in the spot market, leading to reduced purchasing plans from end-users [7] - **Supply and Demand Imbalance**: Demand recovery in downstream infrastructure and real estate sectors was below expectations, with purchases mainly consisting of sporadic orders. Despite some production cuts from steel mills, overall inventory levels remained high, making it difficult to resolve supply-demand conflicts in the short term [7] - **Weakening Cost Support**: Prices for raw materials like iron ore and coke slightly declined, reducing cost support for steel prices, which increased downward pressure on steel prices amid bearish market sentiment [8] Behavior of Steel Mills and Traders - **Steel Mill Pricing Strategies**: Mainstream steel mills adjusted their ex-factory prices in line with market fluctuations, with some adopting flexible pricing models to encourage transactions, keeping adjustments within 20 CNY/ton [9] - **Trader Operations**: Most traders focused on reducing inventory, leading to noticeable price reductions. Some traders attempted to attract customers through discount promotions and increased financing services, but with limited success [9] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - **Short-term Forecast**: The Chengdu steel plate market is expected to continue a weak and fluctuating trend in the coming week, with no significant positive stimuli for demand and uncertainty in futures trends, leading to potential further slight price reductions of 20-30 CNY/ton [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In the context of the decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the cost support for styrene weakens. Meanwhile, the supply pressure of styrene both at home and abroad increases, while downstream demand is mediocre and even shows a slight contraction, leading to the accumulation of styrene port and factory inventories. It is expected that the domestic styrene futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [3][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost Support Weakening - The main raw materials of styrene are pure benzene and ethylene, and crude oil price fluctuations directly affect styrene production costs. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the cumulative increase from April to August reached 1.919 million barrels per day, leading to a weak downward trend in crude oil futures prices and weakening styrene cost support [3]. - With the weakening of the previous macro - sentiment drive, the oil market is temporarily dominated by the supply - strengthening logic, and it is expected that the domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [4]. Supply Pressure Rebound - As of the week of August 6, the domestic styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 78.92%, a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week; the overall production was 361,500 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons from the previous week, with an increase of only 0.11% [4]. - As of the end of July, the total domestic styrene production capacity was 21.792 million tons. In August, the styrene plants of Hebei Xuyang and Jinxi Petrochemical resumed operation, and there were few planned maintenance, so the overall domestic styrene maintenance loss continued to decline. If there are no sudden styrene plant maintenance situations, the domestic styrene production is expected to increase to about 1.63 million tons. In addition, multiple sets of pure benzene and styrene - related plants are expected to be put into production in August, and the domestic styrene supply is expected to remain at a high level [5]. Inventory Overall Upturn - In July, the overall demand of the three major downstream sectors of domestic styrene decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 25,200 tons. In June, China's styrene imports were 21,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.78% and a year - on - year increase of 44.91% [5]. - As of the end of July, the total sample inventory of Jiangsu styrene ports in China reached 164,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,200 tons. As of July 31, the sample inventory of styrene plants was 217,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,400 tons, an increase of 8.70% [6].

Group 1 - PVC futures main contract experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 4930.00 yuan, closing at 4920.00 yuan with a 0.70% increase [1] - Institutions predict PVC prices will remain weak due to increased supply and low demand, with expectations of low-level fluctuations [1][2] - The supply side is pressured by new production capacities from companies like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua, while demand remains sluggish, particularly in the real estate sector [1][2] Group 2 - The Indian PVC BIS policy has been postponed for another six months, which may positively impact future PVC exports [2] - The market anticipates an improvement in the oversupply situation due to the impact of anti-involution policies and sentiment in the building materials sector [2] - The expected trading range for the PVC 2509 contract is between 4800 and 5100 yuan, indicating low-level fluctuations [2]