港股市场策略周报 2025.12.22-2025.12.28 | 分析师： | 蒋开来 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BWL381 | | 联系电话： | 852-6430 1060 | | 邮箱： | jiangkl@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： l 港股市场宏观环境： 2 n 本周市场因圣诞假期仅交易2.5天，交易相对清淡，市场表现为 窄幅震荡上行，市场情绪在流动性宽松预期与产业利好 推动下保持韧性。本周恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别+0.44%/+0.5%/+0.37%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收 涨，仅资讯科技业、电讯业、医疗保健业收跌，分别下跌0.77%、1.09%、1.76%。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点为82.56%，估值水平接近5年均值向上一个标准差。 n 基本面：11月工业企业利润增速进一步回落，主要受消费及地产等内需数据走弱拖累。 n 资金面：美联储2026年1月降息概率不足2成；上周港股仅有2.5个交易日，南向资金环比减少137.13亿元。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：国内经济仍 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，参与阿里巴巴-W(09988)举办的2025年云栖大会(9月24-26日) 后，认为大会进一步印证中国AI及云端产业相关需求持续起量的趋势，产业发展呈现出模型能力持续 提升、基础设施能力持续优化、应用生态逐步繁荣的态势。持续看好阿里云营收增速按季持续加速的趋 势，并建议持续关注中国互联网及软件板块的中长期投资价值。 大会中阿里巴巴共发布及更新7大模型，分为别Qwen3-Max、Qwen3-Next及系列模型，Qwen3-Coder、 Qwen3-VL、Qwen3-Omni、Wan2.5-preview系列模型，语音大模型通义百聆。 整体而言，该行认为所发布的模型在智能水平、Agent工具调用和coding能力、深度推理、多模态等方 面展现出不同程度的提升趋势，更多模型的开源及调用量提升有助于支撑阿里云营收成长率进一步加 速。 阿里发布全新Agent框架推动AI应用进一步繁荣。该行认为此次升级可望推动已有行业的进一步渗透并 拓展新产业用例。截至目前，阿里云百炼平台已有超20万开发者开发80多万个Agent，过去一年，阿里 云百炼平台的模型日均调用量增加15倍。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Internet and Software - **Key Companies**: Tencent, Meituan, Pinduoduo, Beike, Tencent Music, GDS, Tongcheng Yilong Key Points and Arguments Tencent - **AI Investment**: Tencent is increasing its investment in AI, focusing on advertising technology upgrades, Tencent Cloud customer service, and C-end applications like Yubao, which has seen significant user growth, ranking among the top three AIC products in China [1][4] - **Revenue Growth Forecast**: Tencent is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth over the next five years, with a projected growth of over 10% in 2025. Advertising revenue is anticipated to grow by 17%-18%, leading to a 14% increase in gross profit and a 16% increase in operating profit [1][7] - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated to be between 90 billion to 110 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations, although some forecasts are higher [2] - **Shareholder Returns**: Tencent plans to conduct a stock buyback of 81 billion RMB in 2025, a reduction from the previous year's 110 billion, reflecting a balance between AI investment and shareholder returns [8] Meituan - **Performance Expectations**: Meituan is expected to see a 12% growth in takeaway orders by 2025, exceeding market expectations. The in-store business revenue is projected to grow by about 20%, with an operating profit margin slightly increasing to around 34% [1][10] - **New Business Losses**: New business losses are expected to reach 8.5 billion RMB, primarily due to overseas investments [12] Pinduoduo - **Fourth Quarter Performance**: Pinduoduo's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with order management system revenue growth of 17% and profits nearing 30 billion RMB. The profit forecast for 2025 may be adjusted upwards due to strong performance [1][11] - **Investment Appeal**: Pinduoduo is considered an attractive investment due to its low valuation and high cash reserves, with a current stock price of 130 RMB corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 to 11 times [11] Beike - **Profitability Concerns**: Beike's Q4 profits fell short of expectations, attributed to one-time expenses, but the second-hand housing market is recovering, suggesting future profit potential [3][13] - **Market Outlook**: Despite current challenges, optimism remains for Beike's future as the real estate market, particularly the second-hand segment, is expected to continue its recovery [13] Tencent Music - **Revenue Growth**: Tencent Music anticipates a 10% overall revenue growth in 2025, with subscription growth between 15% and 16%. The company aims to balance subscriber growth with ARPU increases [1][16] - **Profit Margin**: By the end of 2025, gross margin is expected to reach around 45% [16] GDS - **Demand Outlook**: GDS expects significant demand in China over the next 2 to 3 years, driven by AI advancements. The company has secured substantial orders, although there are concerns regarding chip bans [17][18] - **Revenue Guidance**: For 2025, GDS projects revenue guidance of 2.5 billion RMB, with additional new orders expected to bring total revenue to approximately 4.5 billion RMB [17] Tongcheng Yilong - **Performance Highlights**: Tongcheng Yilong reported better-than-expected revenue and profit, with a projected revenue growth of 12% to 17% for 2025 [19] Additional Insights - **Online Vertical Industry**: The overall online vertical industry, including companies like Beike and BOSS Zhipin, is performing well, with strong recruitment demand and profit guidance exceeding expectations [3][14] - **Market Valuation**: Companies in the vertical sector are expected to see a revaluation of their price-to-earnings ratios as the economy recovers, with current valuations below 20 times [14]