在经历了围绕生成式人工智能的数年（Generative AI）的狂热喧嚣后，全球科技产业正站稳了一个关键的十字路口。根据德勤（Deloitte）最新发布的 《2026科技、传媒和电信行业预测》报告，2026年将引发人工智能从"令人惊叹"的实验阶段转向"务实"德勤预测，随着AI规模化应用的持续推进，其理想 与现实之间的差距将明显缩小，但不会完全消失：未来的进展将更多地来自于基础能力的夯实与跨行业的深度整合，而非依赖于发布的新模型 。 这份重量级报告详细剖析了从计算基础设施、软件服务模式到物理世界机器人及数字媒体形态的深刻变革。报告指出，科技、传媒和电信（TMT）行业 剧烈增长的重要性已超越了芯片和代码本身，它们正成为其他所有行业实现增长、效率和创新的根本驱动力 。 从"主动炫技"到"被动服务"：AI与SaaS的范式转移 在德勤的预测中，一个显着的趋势是生成式AI使用方式的根本性转变。虽然ChatGPT等独立AI应用关注了当前的媒体头条，但德勤敏锐地指出，未来的主 战场出现"椅子式AI"。德勤预测，到2026年及以后，使用内嵌于现有主流应用（如搜索引擎、办公软件）中的生成式AI的用户数量，将超过使用独立生成 式A ...

Core Insights - The global retail consumption market is projected to double by 2035, reaching $110-120 trillion, with China expected to contribute $18-26 trillion, becoming a key growth engine [8][10] - Eight economic models are identified as drivers of this growth, including creator economy, new family economy, new silver economy, big health economy, healing and self-care economy, population migration economy, sustainable economy, and smart economy [10][12] Economic Models - **Creator Economy**: Characterized by independence and extraordinary creativity, where consumers become producers and sellers, driven by advanced production tools and digital platforms [10][16] - **New Family Economy**: Reflects the diversification of family structures beyond the traditional "nuclear family," leading to unique consumption needs [37][39] - **New Silver Economy**: Focuses on the changing perceptions of the elderly, who are expected to maintain active lifestyles and diverse consumption patterns [57][59] - **Big Health Economy**: Emphasizes the rising health consciousness among consumers, leading to increased demand for preventive healthcare and wellness products [12][13] - **Healing and Self-Care Economy**: Addresses the growing need for emotional support and community connection among consumers facing loneliness and mental health issues [13][14] - **Population Migration Economy**: Driven by cultural integration and consumption migration due to demographic shifts and urbanization [14][15] - **Sustainable Economy**: Reflects the increasing environmental awareness among consumers and the rise of sustainable business practices [14][15] - **Smart Economy**: Involves the integration of AI and big data into daily life, enhancing efficiency and decision-making in consumption [14][15] Market Opportunities - Companies must adapt their strategies according to the four-layer framework of "setting tone, clarifying direction, building advantages, and strengthening capabilities" to succeed in the evolving consumption landscape [10][12] - The creator economy is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5%, reaching a market size of $5.8 trillion by 2035, driven by lower barriers to entry and diverse monetization channels [32][33] - The new family economy presents opportunities for products and services tailored to various family structures, such as single-person households and multi-generational families [51][52] - The new silver economy offers potential for businesses to cater to the needs of an aging population, focusing on both care and lifestyle enhancement [68][69]