Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.49 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.955 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.71% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.32%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 192 million RMB, down 44.68% year-on-year but up 116.45% quarter-on-quarter. The overall project resumption after the Spring Festival has been slow, limiting short-cycle demand for the company's products, but the low base from last year and the gradual reduction of impairment exposure provide operational resilience [1][2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.73%, down 5.95 percentage points year-on-year but up 9.30 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The industry is experiencing ongoing price competition, which has pressured product prices. However, the cost side remains relatively stable, with the average price of waterproof material asphalt at 3,775 RMB per ton, down 1.7% year-on-year and up 1.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's accounts receivable net value was 8.371 billion RMB, down 22.4% year-on-year but up 14.0% quarter-on-quarter. The increase in accounts receivable is attributed to credit issued to distributors, indicating a tightening of credit policies. The operating net cash flow was -813 million RMB, an improvement of 1.076 billion RMB year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 92.9% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects EPS for 2025 to be 0.69 RMB, with projections of 1.03 RMB for 2026 and 1.24 RMB for 2027. The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 25.7 times, but due to slow implementation of new real estate policies and significant pressure on asset disposal, the company is assigned a PE of 21 times for 2025, leading to a target price of 14.49 RMB [5][6]. Market Conditions - The real estate market is showing marginal improvement, with new home transaction volumes in key cities increasing by 7.2% week-on-week but down 19.5% year-on-year. The second-hand housing market is performing better, with a year-to-date increase of 15.0%, which may support demand for the company's products [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 37.37 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.206 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 11.70% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 30.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -40.61 million RMB, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous value of -58.37 million RMB, with a year-over-year improvement of 11.46% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 171.10% [1]. - The company has shown initial success in cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a gross margin of 30.55% in Q1 2025, a slight year-over-year increase of 0.19 percentage points, despite a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.09 percentage points [2]. - The company’s accounts receivable decreased by 6.7% year-over-year, and the operating cash flow improved, with a net cash outflow of 436 million RMB, which is 174 million RMB less than the previous year [3]. - The real estate market is showing signs of marginal improvement, which is expected to positively impact the demand for hardware products, potentially narrowing the decline in sales [4]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 6.613 billion RMB, 7.126 billion RMB, and 7.857 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 194.79 million RMB, 251.81 million RMB, and 314.27 million RMB [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.206 billion RMB, down 11.70% year-over-year and down 30.16% quarter-over-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -40.61 million RMB, showing a year-over-year improvement of 11.46% [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 30.55%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.19 percentage points [2]. - The company’s accounts receivable decreased to 3.004 billion RMB, a 6.7% decline year-over-year [3]. Market Outlook - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with new home sales in key cities increasing by 7.2% week-over-week, which may lead to improved demand for the company's products [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.613 billion RMB, 7.126 billion RMB, and 7.857 billion RMB, with net profits of 194.79 million RMB, 251.81 million RMB, and 314.27 million RMB respectively [5].

证券研究报告 东宏股份发布年报，2024 年实现营收 24.90 亿元（yoy-13.08%），归母净 利 1.69 亿元（yoy+5.03%），扣非净利 1.32 亿元（yoy-10.75%）。略低于 我们此前盈利预测（1.9 亿元），我们认为或主因 24 年地方政府资金面偏紧， 市政类基础设施施工进度放缓，导致公司收入增长承压。1Q25 公司实现收 入 5.21 亿元（yoy-19.1%），实现归母净利 4283 万元（yoy-17.78%），春 节后整体开复工节奏偏慢，收入结算承压。但考虑外部"关税"扰动下，基 建投资有望加码，叠加近年水利投资维持景气旺盛，维持"买入"。 收入规模收缩对制造成本摊薄削弱，24 年综合毛利率略有承压 东宏股份 (603856 CH) 24 盈利修复，1Q25 毛利率企稳 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | 其他建材 | 24 年 PE/钢丝/防腐/保温/PVC 分别实现收入 3.8/2.9/14.0/0.9/0.5 亿元， 同比分别+7.7%/-24.9%/+ ...