2026年展望：宏观环境改善，基本面向好 宏观环境方面，2026年，关税问题缓和，运费处于较低位置，美联储已经开启新一轮降息周期，将刺激 美国消费和投资活动，促进美国地产周期触底回暖，首推受益于美国地产复苏的工具行业，其次建议持 续关注卫浴泵行业、国产摩托车出海。 工具行业 工具需求与美国地产行业景气度直接相关，地产行业对房贷利率高度敏感，目前受高利率压制，地产周 期处于1999年以来的底部区域。随着美联储降息落地，房贷利率下降，新房/二手房销量有望恢复增 长，进而带动工具需求恢复。 塑料卫浴泵行业 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，2025年，消费品出口链的外部扰动因素较多，景气度呈现结 构性分化，摩托车和全地形车持续景气，其他细分方向增速逐季度下降。2026年，关税问题缓和，运费 处于较低位置，美联储已经开启新一轮降息周期，将刺激美国消费和投资活动，促进美国地产周期触底 回暖，首推受益于美国地产复苏的工具行业，其次建议持续关注卫浴泵行业、国产摩托车出海。 招商证券主要观点如下： 2025年回顾：外部扰动因素较多，景气度结构性分化 消费品出口链公司所处的行业较广泛，增长的动因各不相同，因此行情多由自下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for the industry, highlighting specific companies such as Juxing Technology, QuanFeng Holdings, Jack Technology, and Honghua Digital Science as key investment opportunities [4][9]. Core Insights - The overall revenue growth rate for the sample companies in the first half of 2025 was 15.04%, while the net profit growth rate was 23.34%, indicating that profit growth outpaced revenue growth [3][15]. - The average gross margin for the sample companies in the first half of 2025 was 30.95%, a slight decrease of 0.53 percentage points year-on-year, while the average net margin increased by 0.96 percentage points to 14.15% [3][21]. - Cash flow conditions improved significantly, with operating net cash flow rising from 5.384 billion in the first half of 2024 to 6.978 billion in the first half of 2025 [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Consumer Goods Export Chain Companies - The report analyzes 21 companies in the mechanical industry that primarily serve the C-end consumer market or manufacture products for C-end consumption, with a significant portion of their revenue coming from overseas markets [2][12]. 2. Stock Performance - Stock performance showed significant differentiation, with companies in the garden tools and two-wheeler sectors performing well. Notable performers in Q1 2025 included Jiexing Technology and QuanFeng Holdings, driven by the robotics sector [7][13]. 3. Profit Growth Outpacing Revenue Growth - The report notes that several companies experienced revenue growth exceeding 20%, including Daya Co. with a 132.3% increase in revenue due to seasonal demand and acquisitions [15][16]. 4. Profitability Improvement - Most sample companies demonstrated strong profitability, with net profit margins increasing year-on-year. Companies like Yindu Co. and Honghua Digital Science reported high net margins of 24.3% and 25.47%, respectively [21][22]. 5. Cash Flow Status - The cash flow situation for the sample companies is reported to be good, with a net cash ratio consistently above 1, indicating healthy cash flow management [3][21]. 6. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff and interest rate changes, which could catalyze demand in certain sub-industries. The anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. are expected to enhance demand elasticity for related products [8][9]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with advanced global layouts that are likely to gain market share amid tariff changes. Specific recommendations include Juxing Technology, QuanFeng Holdings, and Jack Technology [8][9].