截至发稿，薛良辰累计任职时间189天，现任基金资产总规模2.39亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 16.17%， 任职期间最差基金回报10.39%。 数据显示，恒越基金旗下1只基金重仓巨星科技。恒越研究精选混合A/B（006049）三季度减持5.9万 股，持有股数33.04万股，占基金净值比例为5.06%，位居第七大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约 50.88万元。 恒越研究精选混合A/B（006049）成立日期2018年7月4日，最新规模1.16亿。今年以来收益27.46%，同 类排名2608/8134；近一年收益22.32%，同类排名3612/8056；成立以来收益87.67%。 恒越研究精选混合A/B（006049）基金经理为薛良辰。 11月26日，巨星科技涨5.15%，截至发稿，报31.45元/股，成交2.03亿元，换手率0.57%，总市值375.66 亿元。 资料显示，杭州巨星科技股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市上城区九环路35号，成立日期2001年8月9日， 上市日期2010年7月13日，公司主营业务涉及手工具、手持式电动工具等工具五金产品,以及智能产品的 研发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：手工具65. ...

11月17日，巨星科技跌1.98%，成交额2.73亿元。两融数据显示，当日巨星科技获融资买入额1663.25万 元，融资偿还1757.13万元，融资净买入-93.88万元。截至11月17日，巨星科技融资融券余额合计3.59亿 元。 融资方面，巨星科技当日融资买入1663.25万元。当前融资余额3.39亿元，占流通市值的0.92%，融资余 额低于近一年40%分位水平，处于较低位。 融券方面，巨星科技11月17日融券偿还2700.00股，融券卖出4200.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 12.91万元；融券余量64.88万股，融券余额1995.11万元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 截至9月30日，巨星科技股东户数3.63万，较上期减少25.35%；人均流通股31637股，较上期增加 33.96%。2025年1月-9月，巨星科技实现营业收入111.56亿元，同比增长0.65%；归母净利润21.55亿元， 同比增长11.35%。 分红方面，巨星科技A股上市后累计派现25.24亿元。近三年，累计派现14.23亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，巨星科技十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.3 yuan, compared to the current price of 31.64 yuan [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.16 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.155 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.13 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit was 880 million yuan, up 19.0% year-on-year [2][9]. - The decline in Q3 revenue is attributed to macroeconomic challenges, particularly weak demand in the European market and a slowdown in consumer demand in the U.S. due to inflation and tariff policies [9]. - The company's gross margin reached a historical high of 33.1% for the first three quarters, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3, the gross margin was 35.0%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from product structure upgrades and successful price transmission amid industry inflation [9]. - The net profit margin significantly improved, with a net profit margin of 21.4% in Q3, an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year. This growth was supported by strong gross margin improvement and a one-time non-operating gain of approximately 84 million yuan from asset disposals [9]. - The company's operational capabilities remain stable, with a net operating cash flow of 579 million yuan in Q3, an increase of 325 million yuan year-on-year [9]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 14.795 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 35.4%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 15.771 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.6% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.304 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 36.2%, and is expected to reach 2.496 billion yuan in 2025, with an 8.3% growth rate [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.93 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.09 yuan in 2025 [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - On November 11, Juxing Technology's stock increased by 0.73% with a trading volume of 385 million yuan, indicating a relatively stable market performance despite fluctuations in financing activities [1]. Financing Summary - On November 11, Juxing Technology had a financing buy-in amount of 27.01 million yuan and a financing repayment of 47.51 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 20.50 million yuan [1]. - The total financing and securities balance as of November 11 is 348 million yuan, with the current financing balance at 330 million yuan, accounting for 0.87% of the circulating market value, which is below the 40th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing position [1]. - In terms of securities lending, 21,000 shares were repaid, and 2,500 shares were sold on November 11, with a selling amount of 79,100 yuan, while the securities lending balance is at 18.56 million yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high position [1]. Business Performance Summary - As of September 30, Juxing Technology reported a total of 36,300 shareholders, a decrease of 25.35% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 33.96% to 31,637 shares [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Juxing Technology achieved an operating income of 11.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.35% [2]. Dividend and Shareholding Summary - Since its A-share listing, Juxing Technology has distributed a total of 2.524 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.423 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 28.6788 million shares, an increase of 8.9613 million shares from the previous period [3]. - The fourth-largest circulating shareholder is Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed A (007119), holding 23.7311 million shares, a decrease of 1.445 million shares from the previous period, while the eighth-largest shareholder, Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500), is a new entrant with 10.4728 million shares [3].

Group 1: E-commerce Growth - In October, U.S. consumer online spending increased by 8.2% year-over-year, reaching $88.7 billion [1] - Mobile devices dominated online spending, accounting for 51.4% of total sales, up 11.6% from the previous year [1] - The "buy now, pay later" model contributed $7.1 billion in spending, reflecting a 7.6% increase as consumers seek greater budget flexibility [1] Group 2: Seasonal Sales Trends - During Amazon's "Prime Day" event on October 7-8, online spending surged, with total consumer spending reaching $9.1 billion due to competitive discounting, with discounts up to 18% [1] - Holiday decorations saw a significant online sales increase of 130%, while home goods also experienced substantial growth as consumers upgraded their items [2] Group 3: Product Category Performance - Online sales of hand tools rose by 83%, and power tools increased by 62%, indicating a rise in DIY projects, which may benefit companies like Home Depot and Lowe's [2] - Sales of refrigerators and freezers grew by 55%, potentially aiding appliance-related companies such as Whirlpool and Best Buy [2] - Other strong-performing categories included e-readers (up 81%), headphones and speakers (up 52%), mobile accessories (up 51%), and video games (up 41%) [2] Group 4: Impact of Generative AI - Traffic from generative AI channels increased by 1200% year-over-year, with a 16% higher conversion rate compared to non-AI-driven traffic [3] - Shoppers from generative AI channels showed 13.6% more engagement, browsing more content and exhibiting a 31% lower bounce rate [3] - The report is positive news for many retailers, including Amazon, eBay, Walmart, Target, Dick's Sporting Goods, Macy's, Wayfair, and Etsy [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to recover its revenue due to anticipated interest rate cuts, despite short-term revenue pressure [5] - The company has shown a significant improvement in profitability, with a historical high gross margin of 35% in Q3 2025 [4][5] - The electric tools segment is emerging as a crucial growth driver, supported by the company's global expansion strategy [5] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.155 billion yuan, up 11.35% year-on-year [4] - Q3 2025 revenue was 4.129 billion yuan, down 5.80% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 882 million yuan, an increase of 18.96% year-on-year [4] - The company forecasts revenues of 15.750 billion, 17.535 billion, and 20.120 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.554 billion, 3.060 billion, and 3.540 billion yuan [5][6] Growth Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 6.45% in 2025, followed by 11.33% in 2026 and 14.74% in 2027 [6][12] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.14 yuan in 2025, 2.56 yuan in 2026, and 2.96 yuan in 2027 [5][12] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a 52-week increase of 45.68%, with a market capitalization of approximately 37.29 billion yuan [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.156 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.155 billion yuan, up 11.35% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin reached a historical high of 35% in Q3 2025, reflecting continuous improvement in profitability [2] - The company is expanding its global footprint and product categories, with electric tools becoming a significant growth driver [3] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.80%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 882 million yuan, an increase of 18.96% year-on-year [1] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.613 billion yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 92.10% [1] - The company’s operating profit margin reached 19.6% in Q3, up 2.5% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] Market Conditions - The decline in Q3 revenue is attributed to weak demand in the U.S. real estate market, with mortgage rates remaining above 6%, which suppresses housing demand [1] - There is an expectation of recovery in tool demand if U.S. mortgage rates decrease, similar to the trends observed during the 2009-2013 rate cut cycle [1] Growth Drivers - The electric tools segment is emerging as a crucial growth area, with the company increasing manufacturing capacity in Southeast Asia [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in the electric tools business, supported by a global layout and breakthroughs in orders from large retail clients [2] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.750 billion, 17.535 billion, and 20.120 billion yuan, with net profits of 2.554 billion, 3.060 billion, and 3.540 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company is rated "Buy" with a projected PE ratio of 14, 12, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Juxing Technology is a leading manufacturer in the global tools and hardware industry, showcasing strong research and development capabilities along with extensive sales channels, resulting in top rankings in revenue and net profit within the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Juxing Technology achieved a revenue of 11.156 billion yuan, ranking first among 51 companies in the industry, significantly surpassing the industry average of 1.351 billion yuan and the median of 739 million yuan [2]. - The company's net profit for the same period was 2.211 billion yuan, also ranking first in the industry, with the industry average at 141 million yuan and the median at 57.334 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Financial Health - As of Q3 2025, Juxing Technology's debt-to-asset ratio was 17.28%, a decrease from 27.35% in the previous year, which is well below the industry average of 38.24%, indicating strong solvency [3]. - The gross profit margin for the same period was 33.08%, slightly up from 32.39% year-on-year, and higher than the industry average of 26.36%, reflecting robust profitability [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 25.35% to 36,300, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 33.96% to 31,600 [5]. - The top circulating shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, increased its holdings by 8.9613 million shares to 28.6788 million shares [5]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - Juxing Technology has transformed into a diversified enterprise through a series of mergers and acquisitions, establishing a global multi-tiered sales network [5]. - The company reported over 30% growth in cross-border e-commerce revenue in the first half of 2025 and is investing in new manufacturing facilities in Vietnam and Thailand [5][6]. - The company is recognized as a leading exporter of hand tools in China, with a dual-driven transformation strategy focusing on mergers and acquisitions and brand development [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Juxing Technology's stock has experienced a decline of 5.03%, with a current price of 28.91 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 34.532 billion CNY [1] - Juxing Technology, established on August 9, 2001, and listed on July 13, 2010, specializes in the research, production, and sales of hand tools, power tools, and smart products [1] - The revenue composition of Juxing Technology is as follows: hand tools account for 65.74%, industrial tools for 23.23%, power tools for 10.56%, and other products for 0.47% [1] Group 2 - Hengyue Fund has a significant holding in Juxing Technology, with its Hengyue Research Selected Mixed A/B fund reducing its stake by 5,900 shares, now holding 330,400 shares, which represents 5.06% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has reported a floating loss of approximately 505,500 CNY due to the recent decline in Juxing Technology's stock price [2] - Hengyue Research Selected Mixed A/B fund was established on July 4, 2018, with a current size of 116 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 30.16% [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The hand tools sector is currently at a cyclical low in valuation, with companies like Juxing Technology expected to have a net profit of approximately 3.1 billion RMB in 2026, corresponding to a valuation of about 11 times earnings, indicating medium to long-term investment value [1][2] - The North American real estate cycle is closely linked to the demand for tools, particularly influenced by Federal Reserve interest rates. A decline in interest rates is expected to boost transaction volumes in real estate, subsequently increasing demand for hand and power tools [1][4] Market Dynamics - The global tools market is substantial, estimated at around 110 billion USD, with a fragmented competitive landscape where leading companies hold only 15% market share. Domestic firms like Juxing Technology and Quanfeng Holdings have potential to increase market share by expanding product categories [1][3][6] - The tool industry supply chain shows a progressive increase in profit margins from upstream manufacturers to downstream distributors, with terminal profits being relatively high. The primary demand comes from residential, commercial construction, industrial, and automotive repair sectors, closely tied to real estate and construction market conditions [1][7][8] Demand Influencers - The downstream demand for tools is significantly influenced by the real estate market, with 44% of demand directly linked to housing activities. Historical data shows a strong correlation between real estate sales and the 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the U.S. [8] - The inventory cycle among distributors plays a crucial role in the tool industry. After a period of destocking from 2021 to 2022, a weak replenishment phase is expected to begin post-2024, which could enhance demand as the North American real estate market improves [9] Company Insights - Juxing Technology and Quanfeng Holdings are identified as key players poised to benefit from the upcoming North American real estate recovery, with low current valuations of approximately 12 times and 7-8 times earnings, respectively [5][18] - Juxing Technology has transitioned to an OBM (Own Brand Manufacturer) model, with over 50% of its revenue coming from this segment, while Quanfeng Holdings has an even higher OBM revenue share of 80-90% [15][21] - Both companies are relocating some production to Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff risks, which is expected to attract more orders and expand their product offerings [17] Financial Performance - Juxing Technology's projected profits for 2025 are around 2.7 billion RMB, increasing to approximately 3.3 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding valuations of 14 times and 12 times earnings [20] - Quanfeng Holdings anticipates net profits of 150 million USD in 2025, rising to between 170 million and 180 million USD in 2026, with a PE ratio of less than 10 times [21] Long-term Outlook - The tool industry presents a significant growth opportunity, with a market space exceeding 100 billion USD and a diverse product range. Companies like Juxing Technology and Quanfeng Holdings are expected to see substantial growth in revenue and market share as the North American market improves [14][18] - The success of companies like Chuangke Industrial, which has effectively navigated the market through strategic decisions and product innovation, serves as a model for domestic firms aiming to replicate similar success [14]