分红方面，巨星科技A股上市后累计派现25.24亿元。近三年，累计派现14.23亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，巨星科技十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股2867.88万股，相比上期增加896.13万股。睿远成长价值混合A（007119）位居第四大流通 股东，持股2373.11万股，相比上期减少144.50万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第八大流通股 东，持股1047.28万股，为新进股东。 资料显示，杭州巨星科技股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市上城区九环路35号，成立日期2001年8月9日， 上市日期2010年7月13日，公司主营业务涉及手工具、手持式电动工具等工具五金产品,以及智能产品的 研发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：手工具65.74%，工业工具23.23%，电动工具10.56%，其他 (补充)0.47%。 巨星科技所属申万行业为：机械设备-通用设备-其他通用设备。所属概念板块包括：激光雷达、户外露 营、激光概念、出海概念、油气勘探等。 截至9月30日，巨星科技股东户数3.63万，较上期减少25.35%；人均流通股31637股，较上期增加 33. ...

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 1 月 6 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、产业综合组： 1 月 5 日美国 CES 展开始举行，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋在 CES 演讲上展示了英伟达新一 代 AI 平台 Rubin，其中 Rubin GPU 芯片搭载第三代 Transformer 引|擎，FP4 推理 算力 50PFLOPS，是 Blackwell 的 5 倍。黄仁勋表示 Rubin 平台已进入全面生产阶 段，产品将于 2026 年下半年面市，表明下一代的 AI 芯片进展正常。除了 AI 芯片 外，本届 CES 展的主要技术动态还包括英伟达、高通都发布了机器人芯片套件， 谷歌下属的 Deep Mind 公司也与波士顿动力的 Atlas 人型机器人合作，因此我们 认为黄仁勋所说的机器人领域已经迎来"ChatGPT"时刻的正确性很高，继续看好 今年芯片、人工智能和机器人的产业景气度提升。 1 月 5 日中国证监会召开资本市场财务造假综合惩防体系跨部门工作推进座谈会。 证监会主席、最高人民法院、最高人民检察院、国家发展改革委、公安部、司法 部、财政部、中国人民银行、国务院国资委 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer goods export chain is expected to face multiple external disturbances in 2025, leading to structural differentiation in market conditions, with motorcycles and ATVs remaining strong while other segments see declining growth rates [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Review - The consumer goods export chain encompasses a wide range of industries with varying growth drivers, resulting in a bottom-up driven market where individual stock logic is relatively independent, and sector effects are weak [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue and net profit growth rates for export chain companies showed a declining trend, primarily due to tariff impacts and early inventory stocking by overseas clients [2]. - Despite the overall decline, certain segments like motorcycles and ATVs continue to outperform expectations, leading to sustained high growth in related companies' performance and stock prices [2]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in 2026, with easing tariff issues and low freight costs, alongside the Federal Reserve initiating a new round of interest rate cuts, which will stimulate U.S. consumer and investment activities [3]. - The recovery of the U.S. real estate cycle is anticipated to benefit the tool industry, with continued attention recommended for the bathroom pump sector and domestic motorcycle exports [3]. Group 3: Tool Industry - Tool demand is directly correlated with the real estate industry's conditions, which are highly sensitive to mortgage rates currently suppressed by high rates, placing the real estate cycle at its lowest since 1999 [4]. - As the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts take effect, mortgage rates are expected to decline, leading to a recovery in new and existing home sales, which will subsequently drive tool demand [4]. Group 4: Plastic Bathroom Pump Industry - The plastic bathroom pump sector, used in facilities like massage bathtubs and swimming pools, sees strong demand in Europe and North America [5]. - This sector is linked to new construction projects and also benefits from upgrades in existing facilities, with demand likely to increase following interest rate cuts [5]. Group 5: Motorcycle Industry - The global motorcycle market is vast and resilient, with 2023 sales reaching 54.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%, and a market size of $139.6 billion, up 2.72% year-on-year [6]. - The competitive landscape features Japanese brands leading, Indian brands in the second tier, and Chinese brands breaking through, while European and American brands maintain a presence in high-end segments [6]. - Domestic brands are gradually moving away from reliance on low-end commuter models, shifting towards high-value segments like large displacement and electric motorcycles, aiming to increase market share in Europe and the U.S. [6]. - Key recommendations include companies like Juxing Technology (hand tools + power tools) and Quan Feng Holdings (power tools + garden tools), with additional attention suggested for Lingxiao Pump Industry, Chunfeng Power (small and mid-cap), Longxin General (automotive), and Taotao Industry (automotive & home appliances) [6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Industry**: Outbound Supply Chain, E-commerce Logistics, Manufacturing, Home Appliances, Cement, Pet Food - **Companies**: Financial Securities, Jitu Express, Beibu Gulf Port, Xiaogoods City, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. Core Points and Arguments - **Outbound Supply Chain Growth**: Financial Securities recommends leading companies in the outbound supply chain due to benefits from U.S. fiscal expansion, capital inflow from emerging markets, and a shift in policy focus towards manufacturing, which will drive growth through increased industry concentration and global demand recovery [1][3][4] - **"Running Horse 50" Portfolio**: The portfolio is constructed using the RCA competitive advantage index to select export-advantaged products, resulting in an excess return of approximately 4% since its launch [1][5] - **Jitu Express Performance**: Jitu Express is experiencing significant growth in Southeast Asia and Latin America, particularly driven by e-commerce platforms like TikTok, with package growth rates reaching 79% in Q3 [1][6][7] - **Beibu Gulf Port Growth**: The port has seen a 22.7% increase in cargo throughput and double-digit growth in container throughput, benefiting from trade with ASEAN countries [1][7] - **Focus on Mechanical Products**: In the current interest rate cut cycle, attention is drawn to mechanical products with significant alpha attributes, particularly tools and pet sales, which are showing signs of recovery [1][8][9] - **Home Appliance Export Trends**: The home appliance export chain is expected to show a trend of internal stability and external strength by 2026, with emerging markets projected to achieve double-digit growth [1][13][14] - **Xiaogoods City Export Performance**: Xiaogoods City reported a 26% year-on-year increase in import and export scale, with exports reaching 550 billion yuan [1][19][21] - **Cement Industry Opportunities**: The cement industry is focusing on overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where per capita cement demand is still low [1][16][17] - **Zhongchong Co., Ltd. Global Supply Chain**: The company has established factories in various countries, benefiting from tariff exemptions under trade agreements, and is expected to see significant production value growth in the coming years [1][22][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Adjustment Factors**: The market is experiencing adjustments due to unresolved overseas liquidity issues and uncertainties regarding future monetary policy, with the Shanghai Composite Index seen as a potential bottoming point around 3,800 [2] - **Emerging Market Investment**: Emerging markets like Mexico are benefiting from capital outflows from the U.S., leading to increased local employment and consumption [1][4] - **Pet Food Market Growth**: The global pet food market is valued at $150 billion, with significant growth potential for Chinese brands in overseas markets [1][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Juxing Technology's stock has seen a significant increase, with a rise of 5.15% to 31.45 CNY per share, and a total market capitalization of 37.566 billion CNY [1] - Juxing Technology, established on August 9, 2001, and listed on July 13, 2010, is based in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and specializes in the research, production, and sales of hand tools, power tools, and smart products [1] - The company's main business revenue composition is as follows: hand tools 65.74%, industrial tools 23.23%, power tools 10.56%, and others 0.47% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Hengyue Fund has a significant position in Juxing Technology, with its Hengyue Research Selected Mixed A/B fund (006049) reducing its holdings by 59,000 shares in the third quarter, now holding 330,400 shares, which accounts for 5.06% of the fund's net value [2] - The Hengyue Research Selected Mixed A/B fund was established on July 4, 2018, with a current scale of 116 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 27.46% [2] - The fund's performance ranks 2608 out of 8134 in its category for the year, and it has a cumulative return of 87.67% since inception [2]

Core Viewpoint - On November 17, Juxing Technology experienced a decline of 1.98% with a trading volume of 273 million yuan, indicating a challenging market environment for the company [1]. Financing Summary - On November 17, Juxing Technology had a financing buy-in amount of 16.63 million yuan and a financing repayment of 17.57 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 0.94 million yuan [1]. - As of November 17, the total financing and securities lending balance for Juxing Technology was 359 million yuan, with a financing balance of 339 million yuan, representing 0.92% of the circulating market value, which is below the 40th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing level [1]. - In terms of securities lending, Juxing Technology repaid 2,700 shares and sold 4,200 shares on November 17, with a selling amount of 129,100 yuan, while the securities lending balance was 19.95 million yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level [1]. Business Performance - As of September 30, Juxing Technology reported a total of 36,300 shareholders, a decrease of 25.35% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 33.96% to 31,637 shares [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Juxing Technology achieved an operating income of 11.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.35% [2]. Dividend and Shareholding Structure - Since its A-share listing, Juxing Technology has distributed a total of 2.524 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.423 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Juxing Technology included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the second-largest shareholder with 28.6788 million shares, an increase of 8.9613 million shares from the previous period [3]. - The fourth-largest circulating shareholder, Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed A (007119), held 23.7311 million shares, a decrease of 1.445 million shares from the previous period, while the eighth-largest shareholder, Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500), entered as a new shareholder with 10.4728 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.3 yuan, compared to the current price of 31.64 yuan [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.16 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.155 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.13 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit was 880 million yuan, up 19.0% year-on-year [2][9]. - The decline in Q3 revenue is attributed to macroeconomic challenges, particularly weak demand in the European market and a slowdown in consumer demand in the U.S. due to inflation and tariff policies [9]. - The company's gross margin reached a historical high of 33.1% for the first three quarters, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3, the gross margin was 35.0%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from product structure upgrades and successful price transmission amid industry inflation [9]. - The net profit margin significantly improved, with a net profit margin of 21.4% in Q3, an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year. This growth was supported by strong gross margin improvement and a one-time non-operating gain of approximately 84 million yuan from asset disposals [9]. - The company's operational capabilities remain stable, with a net operating cash flow of 579 million yuan in Q3, an increase of 325 million yuan year-on-year [9]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 14.795 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 35.4%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 15.771 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.6% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.304 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 36.2%, and is expected to reach 2.496 billion yuan in 2025, with an 8.3% growth rate [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.93 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.09 yuan in 2025 [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - On November 11, Juxing Technology's stock increased by 0.73% with a trading volume of 385 million yuan, indicating a relatively stable market performance despite fluctuations in financing activities [1]. Financing Summary - On November 11, Juxing Technology had a financing buy-in amount of 27.01 million yuan and a financing repayment of 47.51 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 20.50 million yuan [1]. - The total financing and securities balance as of November 11 is 348 million yuan, with the current financing balance at 330 million yuan, accounting for 0.87% of the circulating market value, which is below the 40th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing position [1]. - In terms of securities lending, 21,000 shares were repaid, and 2,500 shares were sold on November 11, with a selling amount of 79,100 yuan, while the securities lending balance is at 18.56 million yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high position [1]. Business Performance Summary - As of September 30, Juxing Technology reported a total of 36,300 shareholders, a decrease of 25.35% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 33.96% to 31,637 shares [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Juxing Technology achieved an operating income of 11.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.35% [2]. Dividend and Shareholding Summary - Since its A-share listing, Juxing Technology has distributed a total of 2.524 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.423 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 28.6788 million shares, an increase of 8.9613 million shares from the previous period [3]. - The fourth-largest circulating shareholder is Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed A (007119), holding 23.7311 million shares, a decrease of 1.445 million shares from the previous period, while the eighth-largest shareholder, Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500), is a new entrant with 10.4728 million shares [3].

Group 1: E-commerce Growth - In October, U.S. consumer online spending increased by 8.2% year-over-year, reaching $88.7 billion [1] - Mobile devices dominated online spending, accounting for 51.4% of total sales, up 11.6% from the previous year [1] - The "buy now, pay later" model contributed $7.1 billion in spending, reflecting a 7.6% increase as consumers seek greater budget flexibility [1] Group 2: Seasonal Sales Trends - During Amazon's "Prime Day" event on October 7-8, online spending surged, with total consumer spending reaching $9.1 billion due to competitive discounting, with discounts up to 18% [1] - Holiday decorations saw a significant online sales increase of 130%, while home goods also experienced substantial growth as consumers upgraded their items [2] Group 3: Product Category Performance - Online sales of hand tools rose by 83%, and power tools increased by 62%, indicating a rise in DIY projects, which may benefit companies like Home Depot and Lowe's [2] - Sales of refrigerators and freezers grew by 55%, potentially aiding appliance-related companies such as Whirlpool and Best Buy [2] - Other strong-performing categories included e-readers (up 81%), headphones and speakers (up 52%), mobile accessories (up 51%), and video games (up 41%) [2] Group 4: Impact of Generative AI - Traffic from generative AI channels increased by 1200% year-over-year, with a 16% higher conversion rate compared to non-AI-driven traffic [3] - Shoppers from generative AI channels showed 13.6% more engagement, browsing more content and exhibiting a 31% lower bounce rate [3] - The report is positive news for many retailers, including Amazon, eBay, Walmart, Target, Dick's Sporting Goods, Macy's, Wayfair, and Etsy [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to recover its revenue due to anticipated interest rate cuts, despite short-term revenue pressure [5] - The company has shown a significant improvement in profitability, with a historical high gross margin of 35% in Q3 2025 [4][5] - The electric tools segment is emerging as a crucial growth driver, supported by the company's global expansion strategy [5] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.155 billion yuan, up 11.35% year-on-year [4] - Q3 2025 revenue was 4.129 billion yuan, down 5.80% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 882 million yuan, an increase of 18.96% year-on-year [4] - The company forecasts revenues of 15.750 billion, 17.535 billion, and 20.120 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.554 billion, 3.060 billion, and 3.540 billion yuan [5][6] Growth Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 6.45% in 2025, followed by 11.33% in 2026 and 14.74% in 2027 [6][12] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.14 yuan in 2025, 2.56 yuan in 2026, and 2.96 yuan in 2027 [5][12] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a 52-week increase of 45.68%, with a market capitalization of approximately 37.29 billion yuan [4]