本周，受巴西咖啡供应趋紧担忧、关税政策影响及获利了结行为推动，咖啡价格出现大幅震荡，纽约咖 啡期货波动率已升至四年高点。 阿拉比卡咖啡(Arabica)是星巴克等连锁品牌制作特色咖啡的首选品种。本周初，因全球最大咖啡产国巴 西遭遇干旱天气，且美国对来自这一南美国家的咖啡征收关税，阿拉比卡咖啡价格一度逼近历史高点。 此次涨势不仅可能进一步推高咖啡烘焙商与消费者的成本，还使期货价格进入超买区间。 随后，算法交易商开始获利了结，加之交易所上调了持仓维持成本，咖啡价格随之回落。周三，阿拉比 卡咖啡价格单日最大跌幅达9.1%，创下2008年以来的最大单日跌幅纪录。 本周的震荡交易使得60天历史波动率指标升至2021年10月以来的最高水平。周四，咖啡价格一度上涨 1.5%，触及每磅3.8135美元，随后涨幅收窄。 大宗商品研究公司Commtrendz Research主管格纳纳塞卡·蒂亚加拉扬(Gnanasekar Thiagarajan)表示，周三 咖啡价格受获利了结拖累走低，同时市场预期巴西主要咖啡种植区将迎来降雨。他指出，本周初价格逼 近历史高点后，从技术面来看，当前市场易出现回调，可能下探每磅3.45美元至3.2 ...

巴西副总统：巴西将不得不寻找其他咖啡市场，或者与美国合作解决关税问题。 ...

Core Insights - Coffee is the second largest beverage globally, with an average daily consumption of approximately 2.25 billion cups, playing a significant role in the world economy [1] Group 1: Origin and Historical Context - The origin of coffee traces back to ancient Ethiopia, where a shepherd named Kaldi discovered the energizing effects of a plant with red fruits [2] - Coffee spread to the Arab world in the 6th century, where it was cultivated and named "qahwa," meaning "Arabian wine" [2] - A theft of coffee seeds in the late 17th century led to the establishment of coffee plantations in the Netherlands, marking the beginning of global coffee trade [3] Group 2: Brazil's Dominance in Coffee Production - Brazil is the largest coffee producer and exporter, expected to produce 58.81 million bags (each bag weighing 60 kg) in the 2024-2025 season, accounting for 33.3% of global production [4] - The introduction of coffee to Brazil in the early 18th century led to its rapid expansion, with the first Brazilian coffee entering the European market in 1818 [4][5] - Brazil's favorable climate and government support have significantly contributed to its coffee industry's growth, making it a key player in the global market [5] Group 3: Economic Challenges and Coffee Crisis - The coffee industry in Brazil has faced crises due to price volatility influenced by international factors, leading to significant economic challenges [6] - The "coffee crisis" in the late 19th and early 20th centuries saw Brazil's overproduction lead to a market collapse, prompting government intervention to stabilize prices [7] - The outbreak of World War I and the rise of coffee production in Central America further exacerbated Brazil's coffee market struggles, resulting in a decline in its market share in the U.S. [8]