全球阿拉比卡咖啡市场的结构性矛盾持续凸显。拉长周期来看，虽然价格创出历史新高，但是阿拉比 卡咖啡产量仍低于历史最高产量，阿拉比卡咖啡产量占比逐年下降的趋势更加明显。USDA 预计 25/26 年 全球阿拉比卡咖啡产量较历史最高产量 630 万吨（18/19 年）低 47 万吨（-7.53%），罗布斯塔咖啡产量 则创出历史新高。从消费结构来看，近年现磨咖啡消费快速增长，对阿拉比卡咖啡的需求旺盛。一方面是 产量下降，另一方面是需求增长，阿拉比卡咖啡市场的结构性矛盾持续凸显。 2025 年 10 月 10 日 咖啡：结构性矛盾凸显 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 尹恺宜 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 | yinkaiyi@gtht.com | | 李隽钰 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 | lijunyu@gtht.com | 报告导读： 2023 年 4 季度以来，在全球农产品价格震荡下行至生产成本附近的大背景下，ICE 美国咖啡价格逆势 大幅上涨并创出历史新高，目前仍处于历史 ...

Core Insights - The price of coffee cherries in Yunnan has increased nearly threefold over the past year, reaching around 11 yuan per pound, leading many farmers to switch from corn to coffee cultivation [1] - Climate change has significantly impacted the production of Arabica coffee, causing a reduction in suitable growing areas and driving up prices [2][12] - The coffee industry faces challenges from climate instability, which affects both production and the economic viability of smallholder farmers [8][17] Price Dynamics - Coffee cherry prices have surged from 3-5 yuan to approximately 11 yuan per pound within a year, prompting a shift in crop cultivation among farmers [1] - The price of raw coffee beans has also increased, with some reports indicating prices reaching 70-100 yuan per kilogram, compared to 35-40 yuan previously [14] - Despite rising coffee prices, consumers continue to purchase coffee at lower prices due to the relatively small proportion of coffee bean costs in the final product [14][16] Climate Change Impact - Arabica coffee is highly sensitive to climate conditions, with optimal growth requiring average temperatures around 20°C and annual rainfall exceeding 1200mm [8] - Extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts and excessive rainfall, have led to significant production challenges, particularly in major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam [8][12] - Predictions indicate that by 2050, suitable areas for coffee cultivation could decrease by approximately 50% due to climate change [12][18] Smallholder Farmers - Approximately 95% of the world's coffee farms are operated by smallholders, many of whom live below the international poverty line [9][10] - Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as their primary income source is threatened by reduced yields and increased production costs [17] - The coffee value chain is heavily reliant on these small farmers, who contribute about 80% of global coffee production [9][10] Industry Response - Companies like Starbucks are taking steps to ensure sustainable sourcing and reduce their carbon footprint, recognizing the risks posed by climate change [21] - There is a growing need for the coffee industry to adapt by developing more resilient coffee varieties and implementing sustainable agricultural practices [19][20] - The shift towards higher altitude coffee cultivation may become necessary as lower altitude areas become less suitable for Arabica coffee production [18][19]

智通财经APP获悉，由于降雨充沛，越南咖啡产量有望达到四年来的最高水平，这可能有助于缓解供应 紧张的局面，并对全球咖啡价格产生下行压力。根据Bloomberg News的调查，2025-26年度咖啡产量预 计将增至176万吨，比去年增长6%，相当于约2940万袋(每袋60公斤)。 越南最大咖啡产区多乐省邦美蜀咖啡协会主席Trinh Duc Minh表示："咖啡树目前长势良好，收获季将于 下个月开始。近期天气条件对咖啡作物十分有利，降雨量充沛。" 越南是世界上最大的罗布斯塔咖啡豆生产国，这种咖啡豆常用于制作速溶咖啡和意式浓缩咖啡。随着更 多咖啡豆流入市场，这将有助于缓解因前两个季节收成不佳而导致的全球咖啡豆短缺问题，并有助于压 低上个月飙升42%的咖啡价格。 罗布斯塔咖啡价格上个月因供应担忧而上涨 本周咖啡价格再次出现大幅波动。由于对巴西供应紧张状况的担忧、美国的关税政策以及获利回吐等因 素的影响，纽约阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格接近历史最高水平，随后回落，导致市场波动幅度达到四年来的 最高水平。罗布斯塔咖啡在伦敦的价格也在本周初大幅上涨，随后出现下滑。 Hedgepoint Global Markets 分析师Lal ...

本周，受巴西咖啡供应趋紧担忧、关税政策影响及获利了结行为推动，咖啡价格出现大幅震荡，纽约咖 啡期货波动率已升至四年高点。 阿拉比卡咖啡(Arabica)是星巴克等连锁品牌制作特色咖啡的首选品种。本周初，因全球最大咖啡产国巴 西遭遇干旱天气，且美国对来自这一南美国家的咖啡征收关税，阿拉比卡咖啡价格一度逼近历史高点。 此次涨势不仅可能进一步推高咖啡烘焙商与消费者的成本，还使期货价格进入超买区间。 随后，算法交易商开始获利了结，加之交易所上调了持仓维持成本，咖啡价格随之回落。周三，阿拉比 卡咖啡价格单日最大跌幅达9.1%，创下2008年以来的最大单日跌幅纪录。 本周的震荡交易使得60天历史波动率指标升至2021年10月以来的最高水平。周四，咖啡价格一度上涨 1.5%，触及每磅3.8135美元，随后涨幅收窄。 大宗商品研究公司Commtrendz Research主管格纳纳塞卡·蒂亚加拉扬(Gnanasekar Thiagarajan)表示，周三 咖啡价格受获利了结拖累走低，同时市场预期巴西主要咖啡种植区将迎来降雨。他指出，本周初价格逼 近历史高点后，从技术面来看，当前市场易出现回调，可能下探每磅3.45美元至3.2 ...

Group 1 - Futures are contracts that allow parties to agree on a price for a future transaction, providing certainty in volatile markets [1][4] - The modern futures market began in the mid-19th century with the establishment of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in 1848, which standardized contracts and rules for trading [6][8] - Futures markets have expanded beyond agriculture to include a wide range of assets such as crude oil and cryptocurrencies, maintaining the core purpose of locking in prices [9] Group 2 - The primary purpose of futures is to manage risk through hedging, allowing parties to lock in prices and reduce potential losses from market fluctuations [10]

Core Insights - Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) has revised its coffee production forecast for 2025 to 55.2 million bags, a decrease of approximately 500,000 bags from the May estimate [1] - Despite being in a relatively low production "biennial cycle," overall coffee production is expected to increase, with a projected average yield increase of 3% and a planting area increase of 0.9% [1] - Arabica coffee production is forecasted at 35.1 million bags, down from the previous estimate of 37 million bags, while Robusta production is expected to reach 20 million bags, up from the earlier forecast of 18.7 million bags [1] Industry Overview - Brazil remains the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, making Conab's regular forecasts significant for the international market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the agricultural production in Guangdong is advancing towards digitalization, intelligence, and intensification, moving away from traditional reliance on weather conditions [1] - Smart irrigation systems have significantly improved efficiency, increasing productivity by over five times compared to traditional manual irrigation methods [1] - The introduction of LED night lighting technology in dragon fruit cultivation has led to an increase in yield, with an additional four fruits per year and an increase of 4000 jin per mu [1] Group 2 - The Southern Power Grid in Guangdong plans to invest 56.84 million yuan this year for major repair projects and has established a customer service team to address electricity issues for agricultural clients [2] - The electricity consumption in Guangdong's livestock industry has increased by 17.33% year-on-year, indicating a growing reliance on stable electricity supply for modern agricultural practices [2] - The establishment of a comprehensive industrial chain for Qingyuan chicken, including breeding, ecological farming, processing, and cold chain logistics, highlights the importance of electricity in enhancing traditional farming operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Arabica coffee prices remain near two-month highs as traders assess frost-related damage, while limited hedging by roasters drives hedge funds to increase long positions [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The most active contract rose by 0.8% at one point but later retraced gains, with futures prices accumulating a rise of approximately 6% due to frost affecting coffee-producing regions last week [1] - Roasters' hedging activities are at historically low levels, which typically increase from August to October, further fueling bullish market sentiment [1] Group 2: Weather Impact - Meteorologist Dayana Figueiredo from Climatempo indicates that while weather conditions have improved this week, rising temperatures in the coming days may affect the quality of next season's coffee beans [1] - The current weather may positively impact crop management and harvest completion but increases the risk of fires, necessitating caution among producers to minimize environmental damage and crop loss [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Quantitative trader Ilya Bizov from commodity trader Sucafina reports that roasters may need to purchase December futures contracts in the next eight weeks, providing speculators with more reasons to continue pushing coffee futures prices higher [1]

Core Viewpoint - China has officially announced an expansion of its zero-tariff policy, providing more export facilitation to African countries, particularly benefiting agricultural exports from nations like Kenya and Ethiopia [1][2][6]. Group 1: Zero-Tariff Policy Impact - The zero-tariff policy will cover 100% of product categories for 53 African countries, enhancing trade relations and economic partnerships [1]. - Kenya's avocado exports to China have significantly increased, with expectations that exports could account for 40% of the country's avocado production due to the zero-tariff policy [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China imported approximately 6,892.5 tons of Kenyan avocados, valued at around 90 million RMB, making Kenya the third-largest avocado supplier to China [1]. Group 2: Tea and Coffee Exports - Kenya's tea exports to China are expected to quadruple by 2030, with a 175.2% year-on-year increase in tea imports from Kenya in the first quarter of 2025 [2]. - Ethiopia's coffee exports to China reached $102 million in 2024, a 377.67% increase compared to 2020, benefiting from the zero-tariff access [2][3]. Group 3: Other Agricultural Products - Rwanda's chili pepper exports have gained momentum since 2021, with a significant project initiated in 2024 to enhance production and export capabilities [4][5]. - The collaboration between Chinese and Rwandan companies has improved infrastructure and quality in the chili pepper supply chain, leading to increased exports [5]. - Cocoa from West African countries like Togo and Côte d'Ivoire is also expected to benefit from the new zero-tariff policy, as they seek to expand their market share in China [6]. Group 4: Trade Growth Statistics - The trade volume between China and Africa surpassed 2 trillion RMB in 2024, with agricultural imports from Africa reaching 158.3 billion RMB in the first five months of the current year [6]. - The zero-tariff policy has led to a notable increase in the export scale and variety of African agricultural products entering the Chinese market [6].

Group 1 - Concerns are rising over potential supply tightness due to reduced sugarcane production in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, leading to a third consecutive day of rising New York raw sugar futures prices, marking the longest streak since February 21 [1] - The projected sugar production in Brazil for the 2025-26 season is expected to fall to a range of 39 to 40 million tons, down from the previously anticipated 41 million tons, primarily due to widespread drought affecting early crop growth [1] - Current market prices are also supported by physical procurement demand from Pakistan, while India's sugar export policy for the 2024-25 season is under scrutiny, with the export window closing on September 30 and new season exports not expected to start until February next year, indicating potential short-term trade tightness [1] Group 2 - As of August 31, Brazil's sugar inventory stood at 9.3 million tons, an 8% decrease from 10.1 million tons in the same period last year, indicating no surplus in the current sugar stock [1] - For sustained upward momentum in sugar prices, the market requires clear evidence that Brazil's actual production is significantly lower than the current data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring weather changes and crop growth progress in production areas, as any signals of lower-than-expected yields could exacerbate price volatility [2]