Core Viewpoint - China has officially announced an expansion of its zero-tariff policy, providing more export facilitation to African countries, particularly benefiting agricultural exports from nations like Kenya and Ethiopia [1][2][6]. Group 1: Zero-Tariff Policy Impact - The zero-tariff policy will cover 100% of product categories for 53 African countries, enhancing trade relations and economic partnerships [1]. - Kenya's avocado exports to China have significantly increased, with expectations that exports could account for 40% of the country's avocado production due to the zero-tariff policy [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China imported approximately 6,892.5 tons of Kenyan avocados, valued at around 90 million RMB, making Kenya the third-largest avocado supplier to China [1]. Group 2: Tea and Coffee Exports - Kenya's tea exports to China are expected to quadruple by 2030, with a 175.2% year-on-year increase in tea imports from Kenya in the first quarter of 2025 [2]. - Ethiopia's coffee exports to China reached $102 million in 2024, a 377.67% increase compared to 2020, benefiting from the zero-tariff access [2][3]. Group 3: Other Agricultural Products - Rwanda's chili pepper exports have gained momentum since 2021, with a significant project initiated in 2024 to enhance production and export capabilities [4][5]. - The collaboration between Chinese and Rwandan companies has improved infrastructure and quality in the chili pepper supply chain, leading to increased exports [5]. - Cocoa from West African countries like Togo and Côte d'Ivoire is also expected to benefit from the new zero-tariff policy, as they seek to expand their market share in China [6]. Group 4: Trade Growth Statistics - The trade volume between China and Africa surpassed 2 trillion RMB in 2024, with agricultural imports from Africa reaching 158.3 billion RMB in the first five months of the current year [6]. - The zero-tariff policy has led to a notable increase in the export scale and variety of African agricultural products entering the Chinese market [6].

智通财经APP获悉，市场再次担忧全球最大产糖国巴西的甘蔗减产可能引发供应紧张，纽约原糖期货价 格连续第三日上涨，创下自2月21日以来的最长连涨纪录。据贸易公司Meir Commodities India Pvt.董事 总经理拉希尔·谢赫分析，2025-26年度巴西糖产量预计将降至3900万至4000万吨区间，低于此前市场普 遍预期的4100万吨。这一调整主要基于作物生长初期遭遇大面积干旱天气，导致单产水平出现下滑。 报告同时指出，若要推动糖价形成持续上行趋势，市场需要看到确凿证据证明巴西实际产量远低于巴西 蔗糖产业协会(Unica)当前公布的数据水平。目前市场正密切关注产区天气变化与作物生长进度，任何 产量不及预期的信号都可能加剧价格波动。 截至发稿，纽约原糖价格上涨 1.9%，至每磅 16.81 美分。伦敦白糖价格上涨1.6%;纽约可可价格上涨， 阿拉比卡咖啡价格下跌。 谢赫特别指出，当前市场价格还受到巴基斯坦实物采购需求的支撑。此外，作为全球第二大产糖国，印 度2024-25年度的糖出口政策备受关注——本年度出口窗口将于9月30日关闭，而新产季出口预计最早明 年2月才能启动，这意味着未来五个月全球贸易流将 ...

中国外交部非洲事务司司长杜晓晖5月表示，今年第一季度非洲对华咖啡出口增长了70.4%。 根据中国海关数据，今年上半年，中国从埃塞俄比亚进口的咖啡增长了近五倍，达到30621吨。同期， 中国从乌干达的进口量增长了一倍多，从2660吨增至6150吨。 近年来，中国人对咖啡的需求不断增加。2023年中国咖啡行业市场规模达6178亿元，预计2025年有望突 破万亿元。在如此强大的需求面前，这一政策很好地为中国咖啡企业锁定了供应，并减少了对某些市场 的过度依赖。 自去年以来，全球最大的咖啡豆生产国和出口国巴西遭遇了持续的干旱，导致阿拉比卡咖啡产量下降。 每天一杯咖啡现在已经成了很多国人的习惯，这些咖啡除了来自中国最大的咖啡产地云南外，大部分主 要从巴西、 哥伦比亚、 越南等国家进口，其中巴西是中国最大的咖啡进口来源国，占进口总量的30% 以上。 不过，随着中国陆续对53个非洲国家的产品实施新的零关税政策，非洲咖啡在中国市场上也更具竞争 力。消息显示，中国正与非洲主要咖啡生产国接洽，拓展海外供应链。 非洲咖啡生产商都主要出口到欧洲和北美的传统市场。例如，乌干达、埃塞俄比亚和科特迪瓦等咖啡出 口国仍然与欧洲和中东的传统市场 ...

Group 1: Coffee Industry - As of June 30, there are over 246,000 coffee-related enterprises in China, with approximately 26,000 new registrations in 2025 [1] - The registration of coffee-related enterprises has shown a yearly growth trend until 2023, peaking in that year, followed by a slight decline in 2024 [1] - Guangdong, Yunnan, and Jiangsu provinces account for over 86,000 coffee-related enterprises, representing 35.1% of the total [1] - About 1.86% of coffee-related enterprises are involved in judicial cases [1] - Recent studies indicate that the way coffee is consumed significantly affects health outcomes, with black coffee reducing cancer and mortality risks, while sugary coffee may increase them [1][2] - Drinking coffee in the morning is linked to a significant reduction in cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality risk [1] Group 2: Dairy Industry - Universal Dairy Limited (UDL), the controlling shareholder of New Hope Dairy, plans to reduce its stake, leading to an 8.79% drop in the company's stock price on June 30 [4] - New Hope Dairy's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 10.665 billion yuan, a 2.93% decrease, marking the first revenue decline since 2015 [4] - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 538 million yuan, a 24.80% increase [4] - In Q1 2025, New Hope Dairy's revenue reached 2.625 billion yuan, a 0.42% increase, with a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 48.46% [4] Group 3: Tea Industry - FamilyMart in Japan is recalling approximately 2.27 million bottles of jasmine tea due to potential contamination with metal fragments [3] - The recalled product, "Guangqing Baorun Jasmine Tea," is sold in 1L bottles at a price of 149 yen (160 yen including tax) [3] - The recall affects about 14,499 stores across Japan, excluding the Kyushu and Okinawa regions [3] Group 4: Pu'er Tea Market - The price of ancient tree tea from Menghai County in Yunnan has dropped by 19.66% over the past eight weeks, with current prices at 108.00 yuan per jin [5] - Other varieties from Yunnan's Lianghe County also saw a significant price decline of 16.47% [5] Group 5: Coffee Futures Market - Arabica coffee futures prices have fallen to their lowest level since December, primarily due to increased supply from Brazil [6] - The most active futures contract dropped 4.1%, falling below $3 per pound for the first time in over six months [6] - The ongoing harvest season in Brazil is alleviating short-term supply issues that had persisted due to low domestic inventory levels [6]

Core Insights - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.37%, closing at 15.88 cents per pound on Friday, June 27 [1] - ICE white sugar futures increased by 1.89% during the same period [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures decreased by 5.19%, while coffee "C" futures dropped by 3.95% [1] - Robusta coffee futures also saw a decline of 2.11% [1] - New York cocoa futures rose by 9.52%, reaching $8,947 per ton, continuing an upward trend [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 6.88% [1] - ICE cotton futures experienced a rise of 3.93% [1]

Group 1: Coffee Price Trends - The International Coffee Price Index (I-CIP) fell to a four-month low in May, averaging 334.41 cents per pound, the lowest since January 2025 [1] - The increase in global certified coffee stocks by 28.1% month-on-month in May, reaching 9.27 million tons, indicates a boost in market liquidity as producers and traders accelerate shipments [3] - Coffee exports showed a positive trend, with April 2025 green coffee exports totaling 10.2 million bags, despite a 6.8% month-on-month decrease [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Multiple factors are influencing coffee price trends, including improved supply from major producers like Brazil and Colombia, better climate conditions, and eased global logistics pressures [5] - Consumer confidence remains strong despite high debt levels, with households showing a willingness to spend, which supports stable demand for coffee [5] - The USDA projects a slight increase in Brazil's coffee production by 0.2% for the 2024/25 season, while Peru is expected to see an 8% rise in production for 2025/26 [5] Group 3: Export Performance - Colombia's washed coffee exports reached 896,000 bags in April 2025, a 1.1% year-on-year increase, while Brazil's natural green bean exports fell by 14.4% [11] - The overall export volume of all forms of coffee in April 2025 was 11.43 million bags, a 5.5% year-on-year decline, primarily due to weak performance from South America [12] - The share of Arabica beans in total global exports increased from 59.9% to 63.3% year-on-year, reflecting a structural preference for higher-quality beans [11] Group 4: Market Structure and Pricing - The price gap between Colombian washed coffee and other washed coffees widened from 1.30 cents per pound to 2.25 cents per pound, indicating a recovery in quality premiums [6] - The arbitrage spread between London and New York futures markets increased by 6.6% to 143.58 cents per pound in May [8] - The price difference between Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Milds-Robustas expanded to 17.83 cents per pound, reflecting a structural preference for quality supply [7]