Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to show a strong and volatile trend driven by macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Information**: For rebar contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan or 1.00%, with a trading volume of 1,239,602 lots, a position of 1,894,007 lots, and a position change of - 36,350 lots. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2601, the closing price was 3,345 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.21%, with a trading volume of 573,794 lots, a position of 1,461,059 lots, and a position change of - 12,738 lots [1]. - **Spot Price Information**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan, 10 yuan, 30 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively. Hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan, 20 yuan, 20 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet rose by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Information**: The basis of RB2601 decreased by 22 yuan to 107 yuan, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 20 yuan to 15 yuan. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 increased by 10 yuan to - 53 yuan, and the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 2 yuan to 13 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Policy News**: Five - department offices including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan", supporting eligible commercial real estate projects to issue real estate investment trust funds (REITs). The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry, such as promoting the quality improvement of key industries and enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial chain [2][3]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: In the week of October 23, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 8.37 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.94 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.27 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 27.41 tons [3]. - **Output Data**: In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The daily output was 244.97 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel was 746 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [3]. - **Inventory Data**: In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 121 million tons or 8.2% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3][4].