Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) in China, focusing on the transition from land finance to new productive forces, emphasizing technological innovation and artificial intelligence, and enhancing consumer roles to address complex international situations [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Target**: The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to set an economic growth target of around 4.5%, aligning with previous five-year plans that typically included specific targets [9]. 2. **Investment Focus**: Key investment areas include promoting price recovery to expand domestic demand, developing emerging industries such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, marine economy, and biomedicine, and addressing "bottleneck" technologies [10][11]. 3. **Real Estate Development Model**: The plan aims to establish a new real estate development model, transitioning from land sales to equity investments, and enhancing the capital market's quality [12][36]. 4. **Banking Sector Reforms**: The banking industry will undergo reforms to strengthen risk control, accelerate digital transformation, and optimize credit structures, with increased support for technological innovation and green sectors [37][38]. 5. **Securities Industry Development**: The securities sector will focus on supply-side optimization, improving service quality, and enhancing capital market system construction to meet the needs of new productive forces [2][50]. Additional Important Content 1. **Consumer Demand Expansion**: Expanding domestic demand is crucial, with a focus on traditional and new consumption areas, including household appliances and emerging sectors like pet economy and domestic beauty products [17][18]. 2. **Fixed Income Market Changes**: The fixed income market will be reshaped due to the decline of land finance and the rise of new productive forces, with potential risks in the municipal bond market and opportunities in technology innovation bonds [20][22]. 3. **New Quality Productive Forces**: This concept encompasses the transformation of traditional industries, the development of strategic emerging industries, and the cultivation of future industries, aiming to enhance overall productivity [15]. 4. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector faces challenges in meeting rigid demand, necessitating a new model that links people, housing, land, and finance [28][30]. 5. **Digital Transformation in Banking**: The banking sector is expected to leverage AI and digital technologies to enhance risk management and operational efficiency, aligning with the trends of the digital economy [40][41]. Conclusion The "15th Five-Year Plan" represents a critical juncture for China's economic development, focusing on innovation, consumer demand, and structural reforms across various sectors, including banking, real estate, and securities. The emphasis on new productive forces and digital transformation indicates a strategic shift towards sustainable and high-quality growth in the coming years.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Previously, the research team suggested paying attention to the opportunities in the bond market in June due to market expectations outpacing reality. Last week, the market's concerns about the capital side faded, leading to a decline in bond market interest rates. The team recommends continuing to focus on the possibility of changes in the curve shape [7]. - Since 2024, the term spreads of treasury bonds and credit bonds have diverged. The core reason lies in the differentiation of institutional behaviors, including banks' unstable liquidity expectations and the preferences of wealth management products [7]. - The shape of the interest rate curve and credit curve in 2024 and 2025 is related to central bank operations and the scale of wealth management products. Looking forward, the central bank's operations may improve banks' expectations of future liquidity, leading to an increase in the purchase of medium - and short - term treasury bonds. Therefore, the report suggests paying attention to the bull - steepening trade of the interest rate bond curve [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking: Consider Bull - Steepening Trade - The research team previously proposed two reports, hinting at bond market opportunities in June. Last week, the easing of capital - side concerns pushed down bond market interest rates, and the team suggests focusing on curve shape changes [7]. - Since 2024, the term spreads of treasury bonds and credit bonds have diverged. Banks' liquidity expectations and the preferences of wealth management products are the main reasons [7]. - The shape of the interest rate and credit curves in 2024 and 2025 is related to central bank operations and wealth management product scale. The central bank's operations may improve banks' expectations, and the report recommends the bull - steepening trade of the interest rate bond curve [8]. 3.2 Fixed Income Market Outlook: Multiple Domestic Data Releases 3.2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Releases - This week, China will release May CPI, export, and financial data, while the US will release May inflation data [14]. - The specific data release schedule includes China's May CPI on Monday, and the US's May unadjusted CPI monthly rate on Wednesday [15]. 3.2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds - This week, it is expected to issue 862.8 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds, at a high level in the same period. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of 655 billion yuan, and local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 107.8 billion yuan [15]. 3.3 Interest - Bearing Bond Review and Outlook: Yield Bull - Steepening 3.3.1 Central Bank's Operations and Capital - Side Situation - At the beginning of the month, the central bank's reverse repurchase volume decreased, with a net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan in open - market operations. However, the early announcement of the outright reverse repurchase boosted market confidence [18]. - The capital - side pressure eased significantly at the beginning of the month. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased, and the capital interest rate declined. The overnight and 7 - day DR and R interest rates all decreased [19]. - The secondary yields of medium - and long - term certificates of deposit (CDs) declined rapidly. The net financing of CDs was - 80.4 billion yuan this week, and the proportion of 9M and 1Y CDs decreased. The issuance and secondary yields of CDs also changed [24]. 3.3.2 Rising Expectations of Easing - Last week, the bond market sentiment recovered due to the central bank's favorable attitude. The easing of capital pressure and the large - scale banks' purchase of short - term bonds led to expectations of further central bank easing [36]. - On June 6, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the yield curve showed a bull - steepening trend [39]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: Significant Negative Year - on - Year Growth in Commercial Housing Sales - On the production side, the operating rates of various industries were differentiated. The operating rates of blast furnaces, semi - steel tires, petroleum asphalt, and PTA changed, and the year - on - year growth rate of daily average crude steel production in late May further declined [48]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales declined from high levels. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area fluctuated greatly, with a - 33% growth rate in the week of June 8. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 8.1% and 3.3% respectively [49]. - On the price side, crude oil prices rose, copper and aluminum prices diverged, coal prices were also differentiated, and the prices of building materials, steel, and downstream consumer products changed to varying degrees [49].