Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to prepare for the spring season during the winter, highlighting structural changes in the fixed income market for 2025, where macro pricing logic is being restructured and traditional forecasting methods are failing [1][2] Group 1: Structural Changes in the Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market in 2025 will experience four major structural changes: a shift from total to structural macro pricing logic, with fundamental structural changes dominating market pricing [1][2] - More than 70% of market movements are expected to occur within one-third of the time, indicating an increase in the suddenness of market trends [1][2] - The transition from traditional forecasting methods to engineering approaches is becoming essential due to the failure of conventional models in crowded trading environments [1][2] Group 2: Macro Economic and Policy Changes - Income differentiation effects are emerging as certain groups begin to recover, with examples from the South Korean shipbuilding industry demonstrating that reducing competition can promote income growth [2][4] - The current monetary policy environment has not yet entered a truly low-interest rate phase, with policy rates still having significant room to decrease [2][4] - It is anticipated that the cost of liabilities will drop to between 1.5% and 1.7% by year-end, with further declines dependent on the persistence of deflationary trends [2][4] Group 3: Technological Innovations in Investment Strategies - The adoption of quantitative and AI technologies in the fixed income market is expected to deepen, moving from hype to practical application [2][4] - In response to uncertainty, the focus should be on increasing the frequency of judgments, maintaining stable strategies, and leveraging time value [2][4] - Engineering investment management is set to replace subjective judgment with systematic approaches, utilizing standardized yield ranking strategies for layered investments across the market [2][4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 4月全球固收市场"去美元化"更显著 全球资产配置资金流向月报（2025年4月） 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 王胜 A0230511060001 研究支持：涂锦文 A0230123070009 2025.05.08 美国固收基金大幅流出，全球权益基金大幅流入 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 4月3日，特朗普推出"对等关税计划"，对全球贸易伙伴征收10%的最低基准关税，同时给予某些贸易伙伴更高的关税。4月4日，中国 宣布对美国商品加征34%的关税，并同步实施稀土管制等多项措施。4月初全球股市遭遇流动性危机，全球股市大幅下跌。4月9日，特 朗普宣布对大部分国家暂缓90天实施"对等关税"，在这90天里保留10%的所谓基准关税。此后，全球投资者情绪开始逐步修复，全球 股市持续反弹。 ◼ 全球资产价格表现上，4月美元指数显著走弱，10Y美债收益率边际上行。全球股市剧烈波动，先下后上，基本持平于月初。整体上，欧 元和日元计价资产较美元计价资产表现更好。1）权益方面，4月下旬 ...