Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to prepare for the spring season during the winter, highlighting structural changes in the fixed income market for 2025, where macro pricing logic is being restructured and traditional forecasting methods are failing [1][2] Group 1: Structural Changes in the Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market in 2025 will experience four major structural changes: a shift from total to structural macro pricing logic, with fundamental structural changes dominating market pricing [1][2] - More than 70% of market movements are expected to occur within one-third of the time, indicating an increase in the suddenness of market trends [1][2] - The transition from traditional forecasting methods to engineering approaches is becoming essential due to the failure of conventional models in crowded trading environments [1][2] Group 2: Macro Economic and Policy Changes - Income differentiation effects are emerging as certain groups begin to recover, with examples from the South Korean shipbuilding industry demonstrating that reducing competition can promote income growth [2][4] - The current monetary policy environment has not yet entered a truly low-interest rate phase, with policy rates still having significant room to decrease [2][4] - It is anticipated that the cost of liabilities will drop to between 1.5% and 1.7% by year-end, with further declines dependent on the persistence of deflationary trends [2][4] Group 3: Technological Innovations in Investment Strategies - The adoption of quantitative and AI technologies in the fixed income market is expected to deepen, moving from hype to practical application [2][4] - In response to uncertainty, the focus should be on increasing the frequency of judgments, maintaining stable strategies, and leveraging time value [2][4] - Engineering investment management is set to replace subjective judgment with systematic approaches, utilizing standardized yield ranking strategies for layered investments across the market [2][4]

Report Title - 4月全球固收市场"去美元化"更显著——全球资产配置资金流向月报（2025年4月） [1] Report Core View - In April 2025, the "de-dollarization" trend in the global fixed-income market became more prominent. The global financial market was significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to a sharp decline in the dollar index and increased concerns about the US dollar's credit. Global funds showed a clear shift from the US fixed-income market to other regions, especially emerging markets and European markets. Meanwhile, global funds flowed back into the Chinese equity market [3][8][25]. Market Review: Tariff Shocks Intensify Global Market Volatility - Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff Plan" and China's countermeasures in early April led to a liquidity crisis in the global stock market, which then rebounded after Trump postponed the tariff implementation. The US dollar index weakened significantly in April, while the 10Y US Treasury yield increased marginally. Global stock markets fluctuated sharply, with European and Japanese assets outperforming US dollar-denominated assets. Precious metals rose significantly, while oil and copper prices fell [3][5][8]. - Global funds flowed out of the money market in April, with a net outflow of $31 billion, a significant decline compared to the $35 billion inflow in March. Global funds flowed into developed and emerging stock markets, with inflows of $51 billion and $26 billion respectively. High-yield bonds and emerging market bonds saw outflows [3][18]. Global Asset Classes: Significant Outflow of US Fixed-Income Funds in April - US fixed-income funds experienced a large outflow in April, with a net outflow of $23.234 billion, compared to an inflow of $2.0881 billion in March. In contrast, global equity funds received significant inflows, with China and Europe leading the way [12][25][30]. - The money market saw a large outflow of funds in April, while developed and emerging stock markets continued to attract inflows. The inflow into developed stock markets weakened marginally, while the inflow into emerging stock markets strengthened [18]. - Emerging market equity funds received a large inflow in April, reaching $28.085 billion, a significant increase compared to the $3.22 billion inflow in March. The inflow into the US stock market slowed down [25]. - In April, the inflow into developed and emerging equity markets accelerated. After Trump postponed the tariff implementation, investors' risk appetite increased significantly. The inflow into developed equity markets was $56.47 billion, and the inflow into emerging equity markets was $17.046 billion [39]. Chinese Stocks and Bonds: Global Funds Flow Back into Chinese Equity in April - According to the EPFR fund data, global equity funds flowed into the Chinese market in April, with a net inflow of $20.976 billion, compared to an outflow of $0.895 billion in March. Passive ETFs were the main source of inflow, while active mutual funds continued to outflow [27][60]. - Domestic funds flowed into the Chinese stock market in April, while foreign funds flowed out. Southbound funds continued to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, mainly into the non-essential consumer sector [61][63][70]. - Global funds flowed into the technology, real estate, and telecommunications sectors in the Chinese stock market in April, while the financial and consumer staples sectors saw significant outflows [64]. - The inflow of global funds into the Chinese fixed-income market slowed down in April, with a net inflow of $1.523 billion, compared to an inflow of $3.249 billion in March [71]. Country Allocation: Reduced Allocation to US Stocks and Increased Allocation to European, Japanese, and Chinese Stocks in March - In March 2025, global stock market funds reduced their allocation to US stocks and continued to increase their allocation to European stocks. The allocation ratio of global funds to the US stock market decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 61%, while the allocation to European stocks such as the UK, France, Switzerland, and Germany increased [75][77]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the allocation ratio of global funds to the Chinese stock market has continued to rise, increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1%, which is at the 26.4% percentile of historical levels [77]. - In March, emerging market funds increased their allocation to the Chinese and Indian stock markets, while significantly reducing their allocation to the Taiwanese market [78][80]. - As of March 2025, funds from various regions increased their allocation to the Chinese stock market, including global, global (excluding the US), emerging market, Asia-Pacific, and Asia (excluding Japan) funds [83].