文丨卢晓旸 编辑丨吴海珊 随着2025年步入尾声，华尔街的目光不仅停留在新年圣诞假期，更聚焦于那个全球金融市场在年底尤为期待的"圣诞老人行情"（Santa Claus Rally）。与 此同时，2026年的宏观大幕正徐徐拉开，如何在美联储的政策钢丝上寻找确定性，预计将是投资者在新一年必须面对的挑战。 历史的回响与2025年年底的特殊时刻 所谓"圣诞老人行情"， 是指金融界的一种现象：它特指每年的最后五个交易日加上新年的前两个交易日，股市经常会出现的普遍上涨。虽然原因尚未完 全明朗，或综合源自投资者的乐观心理、税务调整、机构资金流入或假期氛围，但历史模式清晰可见。自1950年以来，这一现象一直呈现出令人惊讶的统 计学显著性。 历史数据显示，在过去的75年间，标普500指数（S&P 500）在这个特定的七天窗口期内，平均回报率为1.3%，且正收益的概率接近80%。这一表现远高 于其他任何随机选取的七天交易日，仿佛是市场给予坚持到最后时刻的投资者的一个"年终奖"。 | 过往标普500指数的 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | "圣诞老人行情" | | | | | 平均回报率 正收 ...

每经记者｜杨建 每经编辑｜彭水萍 （一）重要市场新闻 3、2025"智联·未来"脑机接口国际会议暨第二届中国脑机智能大会将于12月11日至12日举行。会上，将 举行浙江省脑机接口重大科技专项与创新联合体启动仪式。启动浙江省脑机接口重大科技专项与创新联 合体，集聚产学研用多方力量，系统攻关关键核心技术，打造具有国际竞争力的脑机接口产业集群；同 时，举行ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 43脑机接口立项国际标准启动仪式。ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 43 脑机接口立项国 际标准正式启动，脑机接口技术全面进入国际标准制定阶段，有助于加快构建全球统一的技术规范与评 价体系，推动该领域健康、有序发展。 点评：脑机接口下游应用市场潜力大，全球脑机接口医疗应用市场规模有望在2030年达到400亿美元， 2040年达到1450亿美元。脑机接口技术在医疗健康领域展现巨大潜力，为庞大的神经系统疾病患者群体 带来了新的治疗希望和康复途径。尤其是针对肢体运动障碍、意识与认知障碍、癫痫和精神性疾病等的 治疗和康复，脑机接口技术取得重要突破和长足进展。概念股包括中科信息、冠昊生物、爱朋医疗等。 （三）避雷针 阳光乳业：公司发布公告， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid advancements in technology expected by 2026, including emotional AI, wearable health devices, renewable energy innovations, and more, which are set to transform daily life and work environments. Group 1: Emotional AI - The next generation of emotional AI assistants is surpassing traditional ones like Siri and Alexa by understanding human emotions through tone, expression, and wording, providing personalized relaxation recommendations and enhancing customer care [2] - Emotional AI is becoming a partner in daily life, playing a significant role in mental health support and personal growth [2] Group 2: Wearable Devices - By 2026, wearable devices are expected to evolve into "life guardians," with smart skin patches monitoring hydration, stress hormones, and nutrition levels, while AI watches can predict heart disease risks days in advance [3] - These innovations are shifting healthcare from reactive treatment to proactive prevention [3] Group 3: Renewable Energy - New night-time solar panels will capture infrared radiation, allowing for continuous power supply even in darkness, while advancements in lithium-sulfur and solid-state battery technologies will enhance energy storage for electric vehicles [4] - 2026 may mark a historical turning point for the decline of fossil fuels as the dominant energy source [5] Group 4: Brain-Computer Interfaces - Brain-computer interface technology is moving from medical applications to everyday use, enabling paralyzed patients to control devices with their thoughts and enhancing work efficiency through instant data retrieval [6] - By 2026, these interfaces will be integrated into daily life, impacting prosthetics, rehabilitation, and augmented reality experiences [6] Group 5: Space Economy - The space economy is set to flourish, with suborbital flight prices dropping below $100,000 and companies developing zero-gravity hotels, indicating a new era of space exploration and commercialization [7] Group 6: AI in Education - AI-driven personalized education is emerging, adapting courses to individual learning styles and helping adults with career transitions, fundamentally reshaping educational approaches [9] Group 7: Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is expected to solve complex problems beyond the capabilities of classical computers, significantly reducing drug development timelines and optimizing supply chains [10] Group 8: Smart Cities - Cities will become smarter by 2026, with AI traffic systems alleviating congestion, IoT-enabled waste management, and predictive security systems enhancing urban living [11] Group 9: Robotics - Robotics will become ubiquitous in households and various work environments, with cooking robots, construction robots, and personal care robots transforming daily tasks [12][13] Group 10: Bioprinting - The bioprinting field is anticipated to achieve significant advancements, enabling the creation of disease models, personalized medicine, and potentially addressing organ donation shortages [14]

Important Market News - Brent crude oil for January closed up $0.21, an increase of over 0.33%, at $63.34 per barrel. WTI crude oil saw a daily increase of 1.00%, closing at $59.23 per barrel [1] - Major European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.31% at 23,767.56 points, the UK FTSE 100 down 0.02% at 9,689.65 points, France's CAC40 up 0.04% at 8,099.47 points, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.06% at 5,652.15 points [1] Industry Insights - The Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission and the Zhongguancun Science City Management Committee released a plan for the construction of a space data center. The plan proposes a centralized large data center system in the 700 to 800 km dawn-dusk orbit, capable of accommodating a million-class server cluster for space-based data relay transmission and computing services [2] - The "Star Eye" space perception constellation plan was officially launched, consisting of 156 satellites aimed at creating a space information analysis platform and space management service platform [2] - The satellite internet industry is becoming a new frontier in global technology competition, with the satellite communication market currently valued at approximately 40-50 billion yuan, expected to exceed 200-400 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 10%-28% [3] - The industry is at a critical turning point from "concept validation" to "scale application," with advancements in technology, cost reductions, and expanded application scenarios expected to create a new communication pattern of "integrated space and ground, interconnected everything" over the next decade [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to promote the healthy and standardized development of the embodied intelligence industry through three main approaches: establishing industry standards, accelerating core technology breakthroughs, and promoting infrastructure construction [3] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth by 2025, driven by leading companies enhancing component performance and reducing costs, with a focus on core supply chains and application scenarios [4] - XREAL officially launched its global headquarters in Shanghai and announced a partnership with Google to develop the "Project Aura" AR glasses, which will integrate Google Gemini AI as its core [5][6]

Core Insights - Italy has attracted over €4 billion in new investments, focusing on key sectors such as life sciences and biotechnology, clean energy and hydrogen, space economy, and blue economy [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The investment event took place from October 16 to 18, 2025, in Washington, aimed at attracting foreign investment [1] - Over 200 Italian and American companies, investment funds, and representatives from nine Italian regions participated in the event [1] Group 2: Collaborative Initiatives - A "Transatlantic Venture Platform" has been launched, consisting of 20 Italian-American venture capital funds, aimed at promoting joint investments and technological cooperation in startups and cutting-edge technology sectors [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Chief Executive's policy address emphasizes the integration of education, technology, and talent development to establish Hong Kong as an international innovation and technology hub [1][2][3] - The report highlights Hong Kong's strong potential in technology development, ranking third globally in digital competitiveness and first in the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou" cluster in the 2025 Global Innovation Index [1] - Key initiatives include enhancing the innovation and technology ecosystem, accelerating new industrialization, and promoting the development of artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy [1][2][3] Group 1: Education, Technology, and Talent Development - The policy report outlines strategies for integrating education, technology, and talent to build a rich resource pool and enhance Hong Kong's competitiveness [1] - Hong Kong ranks fourth globally and first in Asia in the 2025 World Talent Ranking, showcasing its strong education system and talent competitiveness [2] Group 2: Innovation and Technology Initiatives - The report proposes various measures to establish a competitive low-altitude economy ecosystem, positioning Hong Kong as a hub for low-altitude innovation applications in the Asia-Pacific region [3] - The establishment of a guiding fund for innovation and technology will focus on investments in life sciences and artificial intelligence, enhancing Hong Kong's innovation density [3] Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Economic Transformation - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration between academia, government, and industry to strengthen the innovation ecosystem and high-end talent pool [2] - The promotion of AI development and support for small and medium enterprises will bolster Hong Kong's research capabilities and international appeal [2][3]

Core Insights - The release of the "China Listed Companies Building World-Class Enterprises Development Index" and the "China Space Economy Index" reflects a significant step in evaluating and guiding the development of Chinese enterprises and the space economy [1][5]. Group 1: China Listed Companies Development Index - The index is developed by the School of Business and the World-Class Enterprises Research Institute of Renmin University, providing policy recommendations and decision-making references for listed companies in China [3][4]. - It is based on a "SUPER" model framework, focusing on four dimensions: product excellence, brand prestige, innovation leadership, and modern governance, utilizing 38 sub-indicators [4]. - The index aims to help regulators understand the development status of Chinese enterprises, assist managers in identifying shortcomings, and provide investors with insights for strategic investment [4][5]. Group 2: China Space Economy Index - Developed by multiple research centers at Renmin University, the index measures the scale and impact of China's space economy from 2008 to 2024, showing rapid growth and significant cross-industry integration [5][6]. - The index indicates that the development of China's space economy has been accelerating since 2012, with the gap in GDP comparison with the US narrowing [5][6]. - Experts emphasize the strategic importance of the space economy, highlighting its potential as a future growth area and the index's role in guiding resource allocation and industry development [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of safe-haven assets in the context of a complex global economic environment, highlighting the shift from traditional assets like gold to new alternatives such as energy metals and digital currencies [2][3]. Group 1: Evolution of Safe-Haven Assets - Historical evolution of safe-haven tools has undergone three revolutions, indicating a shift from physical assets to digital consensus [2]. - The current market faces a contradiction where the collapse of the old system outpaces the establishment of a new order, forcing capital to seek temporary refuge [2]. Group 2: New Types of Safe-Haven Assets - Energy metals are emerging as hard currencies in the context of green inflation, with global clean energy investment surpassing fossil fuels at $1.8 trillion [3]. - The financial attributes of these metals are strengthening, as evidenced by the correlation of copper inventory to price dropping from 0.68 to 0.21, indicating a shift towards strategic reserve asset logic [3]. - Bitcoin's institutional holding has reached 36%, but its high annual volatility of 48% still deters conservative investors, leading to the emergence of new crypto assets that aim to differentiate between risk and safe-haven assets [3]. Group 3: Alternative Sovereign Assets - The decline of traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc is noted, with small country currencies rising due to resource endowment and digital infrastructure [4]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surpassed $4 trillion, making it comparable to the fourth-largest stock market globally [4]. - The demand for lithium is projected to grow 42 times by 2030, with 70% of reserves concentrated in "lithium triangle" countries [4]. Group 4: Capital Flows and Sovereign Wealth Funds - Tracking global sovereign wealth funds reveals a trend of seeking new frameworks for risk diversification as traditional asset correlations rise above 0.8 [4]. - The Norwegian government pension fund has increased its copper futures allocation from 0.3% to 2.1% [5]. - Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is establishing a $30 billion space technology fund, indicating a strategic shift towards innovative asset classes [5]. Group 5: Survival Strategies in the New Safe-Haven Era - Investors are advised to build a three-dimensional defense system, focusing on risk, time, and space dimensions [5]. - Short-term strategies include increasing exposure to energy metal ETFs and digital stablecoins, while long-term strategies involve investing in disruptive technologies like nuclear fusion and quantum computing [5]. - Geographic safety zones should maintain a minimum of 15% in physical assets, with digital asset wallets diversified across at least three jurisdictions [5].