2026 年 03 月 02 日 策略研究团队 美以伊冲突最大的预期差——时长和霍尔木兹海峡 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 斩首行动后，预期差扩大 我们认为，本轮冲突最大的预期差或在于：市场仍线性外推通过"AI 精准斩首" 实现速战速决，却忽视了去中心化防御带来的冲突长尾化，以及海峡封锁后的物 理修复周期对全球能源供应的不可逆性。冲突时长和霍尔木兹海峡，可能是当前 美以伊冲突比较明显的预期差。 当前的三大预期差 （1）从"AI 突袭"到"马赛克泥潭"的久期错位。市场认为哈梅内伊及军政高 层被"一锅端"将导致伊朗政权迅速崩溃，冲突会像"外科手术"一样快速结束。 但 AI 的高效不代表冲突的终结。另一方面，尽管哈梅内伊丧生，但伊朗独特的 "层级化权力结构"和预设的"四级继承人制度"确保了指挥链的瞬间修复。即 便德黑兰指挥中心消失，局部的、非对称的导弹与无人机袭击或许也不会停止。 （2）霍尔木兹海峡封锁的"物理刚性"与"增产幻觉"。基于伊朗外长表态没有 封锁霍尔木兹海峡的计划，特朗普表示对伊朗军事行动可能持续约 4 周，市场认 为霍 ...

作为"箭-2"反导系统的替代者，"箭-4"反导系统专门针对高超声速武器威胁设计，旨在填补以色列现有 反导体系短板。那么，一个关键问题随之出现，"箭-4"反导系统具有哪些独特优势？服役后又将在以色 列反导体系中发挥怎样的作用？ 以色列"箭-4"反导系统试射画面。 高超声速武器催生下的必然选择 上世纪90年代，伊拉克、叙利亚等周边国家陆续列装中近程弹道导弹，以色列面临的导弹威胁日益凸 显。在此背景下，以色列在美国技术支持下启动"箭-2"反导系统研制任务。本世纪初正式服役后，该反 导系统成为以色列首款具备中近程反导能力的核心装备，主要承担大气层内中近程弹道导弹拦截任务， 一度是以色列反导体系的"中坚力量"。 从性能指标看，"箭-2"反导拦截弹全长约7米、直径0.8米，发射重量1300公斤，最大飞行速度可达9倍声 速，射高50公里、射程150公里，配备"绿松"L波段相控阵雷达，探测距离500公里，核心任务是拦截射 程在1500公里以内的来袭弹道导弹。服役初期，该拦截弹有效填补了以色列反导系统领域的空白。 "箭-2"是以色列早期反导系统的中流砥柱。 受限于当时的技术条件，"箭-2"反导系统存在先天缺陷，随着地区局势演变 ...

Core Viewpoint - Germany has activated the "Arrow-3" missile defense system imported from Israel to enhance its air defense capabilities, marking a significant step in its military strategy [1] Group 1: System Deployment - The first "Arrow-3" system is deployed at the Holzdorf Air Base, located approximately 120 kilometers south of Berlin, with plans for two additional deployment sites [1] - The system's radar, launch devices, and trained personnel are ready to perform protective tasks within a limited range [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - German Defense Minister Pistorius stated that this system provides Germany with early warning capabilities against long-range ballistic missiles for the first time, highlighting its unique strategic position among European partners [1] - The deployment of the "Arrow-3" system reinforces Germany's critical role in the European defense landscape [1] Group 3: Contract and Financials - Germany and Israel signed a military sales contract for the "Arrow-3" system in November 2023, which includes launch devices, ammunition, and radar systems, with a total contract value of €4 billion [1] - The "Arrow-3" system is capable of intercepting missiles and other aerial vehicles at altitudes of up to 100 kilometers and has a maximum range of 2,400 kilometers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Pentagon has completed the design of the "Iron Dome" missile defense system, but has not disclosed cost details [2] Group 1: Project Development - The design work for the "Iron Dome" missile defense system has concluded, according to U.S. Space Force General Michael Guetlein [2] - The design is currently under review, and no further information is available for release [2] Group 2: Financial Estimates - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the funding required for the "Iron Dome" will be significantly higher than expected, with the space-based interception component projected to cost $542 billion over the next 20 years [2] - President Trump announced the development plan for the "Iron Dome" in May, stating that the system will integrate with existing U.S. missile defense capabilities and will be able to intercept missiles launched from various locations, including space [2] - The total estimated cost for the entire system is approximately $175 billion, with plans for it to be fully operational within three years [2]

Core Points - The "Iron Dome" missile defense system, a key project for the Trump administration, has been detailed with a complex four-layer interception system, but its transition from concept to reality remains uncertain [1][2] - The system's space-based component will consist of numerous satellites for missile warning, tracking, and interception, integrating various existing satellite systems [1] - The project faces challenges in satellite development and coordination among different defense contractors, with significant uncertainties regarding the system's architecture and required infrastructure [3] Funding and Costs - The estimated cost for the "Iron Dome" system is projected at $175 billion, with Congress allocating $25 billion and an additional $45.3 billion requested in the 2026 budget [3] - Experts predict that the actual costs could exceed initial estimates, with projections indicating that space-based components alone may surpass $500 billion over the next 20 years [3] Contractor Involvement - The system will involve multiple defense contractors, with the need for effective communication between different systems being a critical bottleneck [3] - SpaceX's potential involvement is uncertain, as the company was previously seen as capable of launching the required satellites, but the government is looking to reduce reliance on it following a fallout with its founder [2]

Group 1 - The "Iron Dome" missile defense system proposed by the Trump administration will consist of a four-layer defense system, including one space-based layer and three ground-based layers, with plans to deploy 11 launch systems across the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii [1] - The space-based layer will have missile warning tracking and interception capabilities, while the ground-based layer will include interceptors, radar arrays, and potentially laser weapons [1] - A new large missile base is planned in the Midwest for deploying Lockheed Martin's "next-generation interceptor," which is designed for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, the core of the current U.S. ballistic missile defense system [1] Group 2 - The project is inspired by Israel's "Iron Dome" system but will require a significantly larger number of launch systems, interceptors, and ground stations due to the expanded area to be protected [2] - The Trump administration estimates the project will cost $175 billion, but the Congressional Budget Office warns that total costs could rise to $542 billion [2] - Congress has allocated $25 billion in special funding for the "Iron Dome" project as part of Trump's tax and spending legislation [2]

Core Points - The "Iron Dome" space-based missile defense system, known as "金穹," consists of a four-layer defense architecture, including one space-based layer and three land-based layers, with 11 short-range missile launchers distributed across the U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii [1][3] - The system is projected to cost approximately $175 billion and aims to achieve full operational capability by 2028, integrating with existing U.S. missile defense capabilities [3] - The project faces significant technical challenges and funding issues, with experts expressing concerns about its offensive nature and potential violations of the Outer Space Treaty [3][4] Defense System Structure - The "金穹" system includes a space-based sensor and targeting layer for missile warning and tracking, along with three land-based layers featuring interceptors, radar arrays, and possibly laser weapons [3] - A new large missile launch site is planned in the Midwest to deploy next-generation interceptors, complementing existing systems like THAAD and Aegis [4] Technical Challenges - The system will encounter technical difficulties, particularly regarding communication delays across the entire "kill chain," which poses a significant barrier to effective operation [5] - Major defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Boeing are involved in providing various missile defense systems, but cross-system communication remains a challenge [5] Industry Involvement - The presentation did not mention Elon Musk's SpaceX, despite earlier reports suggesting that the company might secure a key component contract for the "金穹" system [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, adjusted sales reached $21.6 billion, reflecting a 9% increase on both an adjusted and organic basis, driven by growth across all segments [16] - Segment operating profit was $2.7 billion, up 12% year over year, with a consolidated segment margin expansion of 30 basis points [16] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased by 11% to $1.56, influenced by segment operating profit growth and a lower effective tax rate [16] - Free cash flow for the quarter was an outflow of $72 million, impacted by powder metal-related compensation and tariff costs [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Collins reported sales of $7.6 billion, up 9%, with commercial aftermarket sales increasing by 13% and defense sales up 11% [21] - Pratt and Whitney's sales also reached $7.6 billion, up 12%, driven by a 19% increase in commercial aftermarket sales [23] - Raytheon achieved sales of $7 billion, up 6%, supported by higher volume in land and air defense systems [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a book-to-bill ratio of 1.86, with a backlog of $236 billion, up 15% year over year [5] - Global Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) are expected to grow over 5% for the year, supporting strong commercial aftermarket demand [6] - The U.S. defense budget reconciliation includes over $150 billion for additional defense spending, indicating strong demand for defense products [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its backlog, driving cost discipline, and investing in innovation [28] - Strategic partnerships are being formed in Europe to support production ramp-ups, particularly for defense systems [7][12] - The company is leveraging data analytics and AI to enhance productivity and operational efficiency [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand across end markets, with expectations for continued top-line growth [8] - The outlook for adjusted sales for the full year has been increased to a range of $84.75 billion to $85.5 billion, reflecting strong first-half performance [18] - The effective tax rate is expected to remain stable at 19.5%, with improvements in operating performance contributing to EPS growth [19] Other Important Information - The company raised its dividend by 8%, reflecting confidence in long-term cash generation capabilities [14] - The company is maintaining its full-year free cash flow outlook at $7 billion to $7.5 billion, with expected recovery from the work stoppage at Pratt [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss Raytheon's multiyear outlook and the potential for awards flowing from the backlog? - Management highlighted strong demand with a 1.35 book-to-bill ratio and a 25% increase in backlog since the end of 2023, emphasizing the focus on ramping production and forming key partnerships in Europe [34][36] Question: What are the latest developments regarding tariffs and their impact on demand? - Management noted a reduction in tariff cost outlook from $850 million to $500 million, with no current negative impact on demand observed [45][48] Question: Can you clarify the impact of the reconciliation bill on R&D capitalization? - The company expects a moderate cash benefit from the restoration of R&D expensing, which will continue to provide benefits in the coming years [56][57] Question: How do you see the trajectory of Raytheon's margins going forward? - Management expressed optimism about achieving 12% plus margins, driven by improved program mix and productivity [102][105] Question: What is the status of the GTF advantage and supply chain improvements? - Production for the GTF advantage has begun, with deliveries planned for later this year, and overall supply chain stability is improving [110][111]

Group 1 - The upcoming fifth round of Japan-U.S. ministerial talks is focused on U.S. tariff policies, with Japan still not receiving any commitments from the U.S. despite ongoing negotiations [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akira Amari, indicated that the fourth round of talks made progress in understanding each other's positions, but Japan's goal of adjusting U.S. tariffs remains elusive [2] - The U.S. has set a basic tariff rate of 10% and an additional tariff rate of 14% on Japan, with the suspension period for additional tariffs ending on July 9 [2] Group 2 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba plans to meet with President Trump during the G7 and NATO summits to push for tariff negotiations, although he acknowledges the complexity of the situation [3] - The U.S. has recently increased steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which Japan aims to address in negotiations, as maintaining a 25% tariff on automobiles could cost Japanese companies 1 billion yen (approximately $699,000) per hour [2][6] - Japan is considering participating in the U.S. "Iron Dome" missile defense project, which could serve as leverage in tariff negotiations [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Defense Secretary has urged Japan to increase its defense spending, indicating a desire for stronger cooperation in defense and cybersecurity [5] - Japan has proposed various measures to the U.S. to encourage tariff reductions, including investments in U.S. energy and agricultural products, but has faced increased tariffs instead [6] - The Japanese government is exploring ways to increase its financial contribution to the U.S. military presence in Japan, currently estimated at 211 billion yen (approximately $1.47 billion) annually [6] Group 4 - The Japanese government hopes to achieve results in tariff negotiations by June, as the current parliamentary session ends on June 22, which could impact political stability [7] - The U.S. is seeking to share costs for the "Iron Dome" project, which Japan is interested in for enhancing its military capabilities, but there are concerns about the financial implications for Japan [7]

Core Points - The U.S. government is planning to develop the "Iron Dome" missile defense system with a total cost estimated at $175 billion, including $25 billion allocated for its construction [1][7] - The project will involve the construction of a satellite network to detect and track missiles, with plans to launch between 400 to over 1,000 satellites [3] - The Pentagon has set multiple phased task objectives for the project, which will extend from early 2026 to after 2030 [4] Group 1 - President Trump announced the selection of General Michael Guetle to lead the "Iron Dome" project, with participation from Alaska and Georgia [2] - The project has attracted interest from numerous startups in the defense sector, with SpaceX and two Silicon Valley companies potentially winning key procurement contracts [3] - The initial engineering and design costs for the satellite monitoring layer are estimated to be between $6 billion to $10 billion [3] Group 2 - The Pentagon has received interest from over 180 companies regarding the project, with key decision-makers including the current Deputy Secretary of Defense, Steve VanBeek [6] - Traditional defense contractors such as Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and Raytheon are also expected to compete for contracts related to the "Iron Dome" system [5] - The House Armed Services Committee has advanced a $150 billion defense plan that includes funding for the "Iron Dome" missile defense system [6][7]