日本对抗通缩的实践表明，一旦形成"债务—通缩"恶性循环，长期通缩预期将削弱央行降息（降低 名义利率）的政策效果。 日本CPI自2021年9月开始转正，此后基本稳定在2.5%以上。日本经济走 出通缩的一个重要契机是抓住全球通胀上行形成的输入性通胀窗口期，建立工资与物价同步上涨的良 性循环，并通过货币政策正常化增强长期通胀预期。 房地产投资不振叠加对等关税冲击，中游化工品成为PPI下行的最大拖累因素。中游化工品对PPI降 幅波动的解释程度达到60%以上，是分析PPI整体走势的重要指标。受供给波动和需求收缩影响，下 游必选消费品加大PPI下行压力。 综合整治内卷式竞争初显成效，下游可选消费品对PPI形成支撑。随着《公平竞争审查条例》《全国 统一大市场建设指引（试行）》相继出台，多部门加大力度治理企业低价无序竞争，新能源汽车、锂 电池、光伏等新兴产业价格降幅收窄，缓解企业"增收不增利"的经营压力。 下半年，宏观调控重心是强化财政、货币、产业、就业、社保等各项政策协同发力，促进经济供需平 衡和物价合理回升，避免名义增长偏慢拉大宏微观经济温差。 提振名义经济增长应供需两端"双管齐下"：一方面，将涵盖一般物价（CPI、PP ...

Group 1 - The "Skills Illuminate the Future" summer training program has been launched in Suzhou, focusing on large-scale vocational skills training to support laborers in achieving skill-based employment and income growth [1][2] - The program aims to respond to the needs of various sectors by aligning training with industry demands, involving over 20 departments to create a collaborative training framework [1][2] - The training will target key groups such as rural migrant workers, unemployed graduates, and individuals facing employment difficulties, with ten specialized training plans in advanced manufacturing, modern services, and practical skills for rural areas [2] Group 2 - Suzhou has mobilized resources from 73 universities and vocational schools, along with 194 private vocational training institutions and 102 public training bases, to enhance the scale of socialized training [2] - The launch event included the establishment of a training alliance among industry associations and the awarding of public training bases, promoting collaboration between educational institutions and enterprises [2][3] - A partnership was formed between Changshu Vocational School and Xiaomi Group to develop training programs in artificial intelligence and industrial vision, enhancing employment opportunities for students and talent supply for companies [3]

Core Points - The "2025 Skill Construction Work Plan" for Henan Province aims to train over 2 million individuals in vocational skills, with 650,000 receiving government subsidies [1] - The plan includes ten special training programs focusing on high-quality skilled talent to meet the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading [1] Group 1: Advanced Manufacturing Sector - The plan targets key industrial chains and clusters in advanced manufacturing, including automotive, pharmaceutical, and electrical machinery sectors, with a goal of training 200,000 individuals and adding 60,000 high-skilled talents annually [1] Group 2: Modern Service Sector - The training initiatives will focus on health services for the elderly and children, aiming to train 350,000 individuals and add 100,000 high-skilled talents [1] - Additional training will be provided for cultural restoration, creative design, and rural tourism, targeting 30,000 individuals and adding 10,000 high-skilled talents [1] - The plan also includes training for new business models like live-streaming e-commerce and specialty catering, with a target of 30,000 individuals and 8,000 new high-skilled talents [1] Group 3: Digital Economy Sector - The digital skills training will focus on smart manufacturing, industrial internet, virtual reality, and blockchain, with a target of training 50,000 individuals and adding 15,000 high-skilled talents [2] - Youth skill training will be emphasized, particularly for new-generation migrant workers and veterans, with a target of training 150,000 individuals and adding 10,000 skilled technicians [2] Group 4: Vocational Education - The plan aims to expand enrollment in vocational schools, targeting over 55,000 students annually, and to establish industry-education alliances for practical training [2] - A total of 450,000 individuals are expected to be trained, with 260,000 new high-skilled talents [2] Group 5: Private Sector Involvement - The plan encourages private enterprises to lead or participate in skill ecosystem construction, targeting 150,000 individuals for training and adding 50,000 high-skilled talents [3] - The implementation of the "New Eight-Level Worker" skill grading system is also emphasized, with plans to evaluate 20 enterprises and 30 new top-level technicians [3]

今年，专项培训行动聚焦高校毕业生、农民工、登记失业人员、就业困难人员等重点群体和广大企 业职工，依托十项重点行动开展专项培训，发挥政府、行业、企业、院校四方合力作用，推行"岗位需 要+技能培训+技能评价+就业服务"四位一体项目化培训模式，面向企业新录用职工、转岗职工、新型 学徒和一线高技能人才，开展"技能兴企·强链增收"行动，支持企业分类开展系列项目化培训，逐步扩 大"新八级工"覆盖面，提高一线技能人才待遇，全年培训企业职工20万人次以上。面向重点产业企业一 线职工和高校毕业生等青年群体，实施产业工匠人才培育计划，重点围绕4个万亿级产业基地，数控机 床、船舶与海工装备等12个优势产业集群和新能源汽车、集成电路装备等10个战略性新兴产业集群，在 关键技术升级和高端品牌建设方面的急需紧缺职业（工种）领域，大规模开展高级工、技师、高级技 师、特级技师、首席技师培养。针对大数据、人工智能、智能制造、集成电路、信息技术、数据安全等 新业态新职业，开展"人工智能+"数字技能提升行动，开展数字技术工程师培育项目和数字人才技能提 升工作，支持"智改数转"企业以订单、定制、定向、项目化培训等方式加强数字人才培养。 面向农民工、 ...

4月28日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。这些举措与 去年9月一揽子增量政策、去年12月中央经济工作会议和今年3月全国两会部署任务形成接续，同时也因 应了外部环境最新变化。 同时，围绕康养托育、先进制造、现代服务、新职业等就业容量大、招聘需求旺的领域，加大职业技能 培训力度；强化政策激励，提高企业和劳动者培训的积极性，促进劳动者提升技能，以适应经济结构转 型的劳动力市场需求。 适度宽松的货币政策将为稳就业稳经济护航。包括适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，发挥好货币政策工 具总量和结构双重功能，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长重点领域，精准加力做好 金融支持。包括落实创业担保贷款政策，加力稳外贸、促消费、扩投资等，并将适时推出增量政策。 更好发挥内需主动力作用是稳就业稳经济的主要手段，通过增加中低收入群体收入，大力提振消费，扩 大有效投资，实现做强国内大循环的目标。重点是加大资金支持力度，扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力 实施"两重"建设，以确保继续沿着高质量发展的道路前进。 大力提振消费是关键。除了继续加力以旧换新，会议提出建立实施育儿补贴制度，创设专项再贷款工 ...