本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者周梦婷 北京报道 2025年，实体零售业态持续快速演变。近日，扎根在一线城市的折扣品牌好特卖被传出在广州、长沙、 杭州、北京等核心城市陆续关店的信息，并且放缓了开店节奏，部分城市不接受新加盟商加入。今年以 来，折扣业态迅速崛起并成为实体零售的焦点。美团、京东、盒马等互联网与零售巨头纷纷入局，物 美、中百集团等传统商超也加速切入赛道。在愈发激烈的市场竞争中，以临期商品起步的好特卖，正面 临多方挤压，增长压力日益凸显。 好特卖"困局"显现 新零售专家鲍跃忠对《华夏时报》记者分析认为，"好特卖的商业模式存在结构性矛盾。其主打临期商 品，以极低价格吸引价格敏感型消费者，主营品类多为日常快消品。这类消费需求通常集中在社区、写 字楼周边等注重便利性与性价比的场景。然而，好特卖却将门店大量开设在租金昂贵的购物中心，这导 致了显著的经营矛盾：高租金成本与低价薄利模式难以持续兼容。初期为建立品牌声量和市场认知，选 择购物中心或许是一种战略投入，但若长期依赖此种选址模式，成本压力将严重侵蚀其本已微薄的利润 空间，商业模式将面临严峻考验。" 饱受夹击之痛 这边好特卖被曝多地闭店，另一边 ...

Core Insights - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher as stocks tend to continue in their established direction [1] - TJX currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics, supported by price changes and earnings estimate revisions [2][3] Company Performance - TJX shares have increased by 2.46% over the past week, while the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry has risen by 6.21% during the same period [5] - Over the last quarter, TJX shares have gained 13.76%, and over the past year, they have increased by 22.2%, outperforming the S&P 500, which moved 6.14% and 15.41% respectively [6] - The average 20-day trading volume for TJX is 4,638,315 shares, indicating a bullish sentiment when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, 7 earnings estimates for TJX have been revised upwards, increasing the consensus estimate from $4.48 to $4.64 [9] - For the next fiscal year, 6 estimates have also moved higher, with no downward revisions noted [9] Conclusion - Given the strong performance metrics and positive earnings outlook, TJX is rated as a 2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A, making it a promising investment opportunity [10]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart hosted its 2025 "Employee Week" event on June 5 and 6, with store tours and management meetings, leading Goldman Sachs to issue a "Buy" rating with a target price of $101 for Walmart (WMT.US) [1] Financial Summary - Current Price: $97.47, Target Price: $101.00, Upside: 3.6% [2] - Market Cap: $780.4 billion, Enterprise Value: $816.2 billion [2] - Revenue Forecasts: - 2025: $680.99 billion - 2026: $706.10 billion - 2027: $735.97 billion - 2028: $767.74 billion [2] - EBITDA Forecasts: - 2025: $42.48 billion - 2026: $44.79 billion - 2027: $49.07 billion - 2028: $53.83 billion [2] - EBIT Forecasts: - 2025: $29.50 billion - 2026: $30.71 billion - 2027: $34.49 billion - 2028: $38.63 billion [2] - Dividend Yield: 1.1% [2] Business Growth Drivers - The grocery segment has been a key growth driver, with a 70% increase over the past 9-10 years and a 50% increase since 2020 [3] - Walmart plans to add 150 new items to its Better Goods brand, focusing on high-quality products, with 70% priced below $5 [3] - The company is capturing market share from both retailers and restaurants [3] Digital Business Insights - One-third of Walmart's orders are for "fast delivery" within three hours, indicating a shift towards delivery services over in-store pickup [4] Consumer Impact of Tariffs - Consumers have not significantly felt the impact of tariffs, with no signs of supply chain congestion reported by Walmart [5] Product Variety Enhancement - Walmart is improving the quality of its everyday products and negotiating with higher-quality brands, despite challenges due to consumer spending constraints [6] - The company is enhancing its clothing and home goods categories, with notable changes including the introduction of domestic brands and a focus on a department store atmosphere [6][7] Advertising and Revenue Sources - Walmart's advertising revenue is still low compared to Amazon, with a focus on promoting unsold products through VIZlO [8] Digital Label Implementation - By 2026, Walmart plans to roll out digital labels to all stores, which will help improve inventory turnover and display both discount and regular prices [9] Pharmacy Business Performance - The pharmacy segment is performing well, with GLP-1 drugs contributing 100 basis points to overall performance, and the company has launched a pharmacy delivery service [10] Sam's Club Growth - Sam's Club has seen a 7% increase in membership fee income and a 160% growth in delivery services, with 35% of members using the "Scan & Go" service [11]

作者： 贺晓青，科尔尼全球合伙人，大中华区总裁 王娅欣，科尔尼董事 李古岳，科尔尼项目经理 全文首发于《中欧商业评论》 2025 年 4 月 2 日 本文是 " 科尔尼深度 ——2024 中国消费市场大洗牌：五大趋势洞察新拐点 " 系列文章的渠道话题延伸。 如果说以卖场为代表的现代渠道是中国零售渠道变革的第一波浪潮，百花齐放的线上化是第二波浪潮，那 么在线上获客成本上升的当下，我们看到了 第三波渠道变革的趋势。无论是电商还是线下渠道，新零售业 态的发展都吸引了市场的目光。 值得注意的是，线下实体渠道虽然在过去被电商遮掩了光芒，但是随着会员店、折扣店等新兴渠道的兴 起， 线下渠道这个最贴近消费者、最具温度的渠道正在重新回到市场的聚光灯下 —— 未来或成为渠道组合 中的独特机会点。 前言 随着中国宏观经济环境变化，消费者心态也在悄然变化，由从前的" 任性消费 "向" 理性消费 "回归。 消费者并非"断舍离"式的节衣缩食，而是不再被漫天的营销噱头和品牌溢价所裹挟。 反观供应端，零售业在经历过疫情前围绕"场"和"货"的迭代与试错后，围绕" 人 "的消费趋势也在变化 ——即重构"货场"价值链，以更有的放矢地搭配满足消费 ...