Export Performance in 2025 - In 2025, China's exports are expected to grow by 5.0% (in USD), demonstrating strong resilience despite significant tariffs imposed by the US[2] - The decline in exports to the US is projected to narrow, with a drop of 18.9% in the first 11 months of 2025, impacting overall export growth by approximately 2.8 percentage points[11] - Exports to non-US markets contributed about 6.0 percentage points to overall export growth, offsetting the decline in US exports[11] Outlook for 2026 - For 2026, China's export growth is anticipated to slow to around 4%, still outperforming the global average of approximately 0.5%[14] - China's share of global exports is expected to rise to 15.5% in 2026, up from 15.0% in 2025 and 14.6% in 2024[22] - The export structure is shifting from low-end consumer goods to mid-to-high-end intermediate and capital goods due to global supply chain restructuring[2] Key Drivers of Export Resilience - Demand from emerging markets such as Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America is expected to drive the demand for industrial and intermediate goods, supporting Chinese exports[2] - China's competitive advantage in key segments of the supply chain continues to attract imports of essential intermediate and capital goods from countries like ASEAN[2] - Expansion in global AI computing power investments is likely to boost exports of Chinese electrical equipment and data center products[2] Risks and Policy Recommendations - Potential risks include the escalation of the US-China tariff war and increasing trade barriers from other economies[5] - Policy recommendations suggest enhancing domestic reforms and technological upgrades to strengthen export competitiveness[4] - Expanding high-level international openness is advised to provide stable support for enterprises' export and globalization efforts[4]