Q&A 2026 年机械行业的主要投资主线是什么？ 机械团队 26 年年度策略：重点推荐装备出海+AI 设备高 景气机会 20251214 摘要 工程机械行业性价比高，利润增长依赖海外市场，国内市场困境反转。 三一重工和徐工机械估值分别为 16 倍和 10 倍出头，增长潜力可观，建 议超配。 叉车市场前景广阔，欧美降息刺激需求，无人叉车技术成熟。推荐关注 中力、杭叉和合力，受益于无人叉车产业趋势和欧美市场人力成本优势。 出口链受益于美国降息和欧美制造业复苏预期，光伏设备行业关注硅料 公司收储和下游整合，新技术可能引发扩产需求。 纽威股份具有高性价比，订单增速快，平台化布局潜力大，重点发力水 阀门和电力阀门，未来估值有望提升。 看好北方华创、中微公司、微导和迈为，受益于存储扩产预期和国产化 率提高，头部厂商订单有望大幅增长。 光伏设备行业关注迈为出海战略和奥特维的技术创新带来的资本开支机 会，一旦市场修复，奥特维可能率先反应。 PCB 板块钻孔环节存在历史性机遇，下游资本支出增速高，进口替代逻 辑强，技术迭代速度快，看好大族数控。 哪些细分方向和个股在 2026 年最值得关注？ 在工程机械领域，我们最看好头部主 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of unmanned forklifts, highlighting their integration of traditional forklift and AGV technologies, which enhances automation in logistics and reduces labor costs and safety risks [1][2] - The industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by factors such as rising labor costs, policy support for smart manufacturing, and advancements in technology [2] Group 1: Technology and Market Trends - Unmanned forklifts have become essential in smart logistics, featuring automatic navigation, obstacle avoidance, and path planning, making them suitable for standardized and repetitive tasks [1] - The market for unmanned forklifts in China has expanded significantly, with shipments increasing from 2,700 units in 2019 (0.44% penetration rate) to 19,500 units in 2023 (1.66% penetration rate), and projected to reach 39,000 units by 2025 (3.17% penetration rate) [2] - The global market size for unmanned forklifts in China reached $2.385 billion in 2023, accounting for 45% of the global market, with Asia's overall share at 47% [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by a shift from traditional forklift modifications to specialized designs and autonomous systems, with a dual architecture of local controllers and cloud-based scheduling platforms [2] - Key players include Linde (China), Hangcha Intelligent, Toyota Material Handling, and Geek+, with the latter achieving the highest market share in global warehouse robotics by 2021 [2] - The global robotics control system market is expected to reach approximately 80 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 84.4% from 2020 to 2024 [2]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to September. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% during the week [1][15][17] - The ISM services PMI returned above the expansion line, reflecting strong economic data, while the unemployment rate decreased, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][15][17] - The signing of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) increased the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading pattern [1][15][17] Fixed Income - In the week of June 30 to July 4, 12 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 34.961 billion yuan, an increase of 3.531 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 56.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Industry Analysis Robotics and Automation - The report highlights that the human-like robot sector is entering a year of mass production, with supply chain adjustments and component innovations being crucial. Tesla's Musk has set a production target of 5,000 to 10,000 units for the year [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of component innovations such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials in enhancing robot capabilities [7][8] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is expected to see improvements on both the liability and asset sides, with low valuations and low holdings providing a balanced risk-reward profile. The estimated valuation for the insurance sector is between 0.61-0.96 times PEV and 0.98-2.21 times PB, indicating historical lows [9] REITs - The report discusses the potential of REITs in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the importance of policy support and structural optimization to enhance investment value. The diversification of asset types is expected to accelerate, with new assets like data centers and wind power emerging [10] Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with a projected demand growth of 0-3% for the year. The report notes that the export market remains strong, contributing to high industry sentiment [11] Unmanned Forklift Industry - The report suggests that the unmanned forklift sector is poised for rapid growth driven by AI technology and smart logistics. It recommends investing in leading companies in the smart forklift space [12] Consumer Services - The analysis of consumer spending in China indicates that the overall consumption rate is low, with both service and goods consumption needing improvement. The service consumption rate in China was 21.1% in 2019, compared to an average of 28.4% across 43 countries [20][21]