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科技行业周报:算力景气持续,关注产业链延伸机会-20250811
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-08-11 15:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong positive outlook on the AI application-driven demand for computing power, indicating a sustained high growth trajectory in the industry [2]. Core Insights - The computing power industry is experiencing a resonance between domestic and international supply chains, with a continuous high demand for computing power from overseas [2]. - The report highlights that the domestic computing power supply chain is in a tight balance, with key bottlenecks gradually being addressed over time, leading to ongoing positive catalysts in the market [2]. - Investment opportunities in domestic computing power are expected to emerge in the second half of the year and into the next year [2]. Summary by Sections Overseas Computing Power Supply Chain Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-end PCB, optical modules, and server ODM sectors, which are expected to maintain high profitability and a tight supply-demand balance [3]. High-end PCB Industry Opportunities - The report discusses the transition from copper cable solutions to orthogonal backplane solutions in NVIDIA's Rubin series, which is expected to enhance design and operational efficiency [6]. - The orthogonal backplane solution involves three 26-layer PCB boards, with a single cabinet requiring approximately four backplanes, valued at 200,000 to 300,000 yuan each [6]. - Domestic manufacturers with capabilities in copper paste sintering are likely to become core suppliers, with recommendations to focus on companies like Shenzhen South Circuit (002916), Jingwang Electronics (603228), and Dongshan Precision (002384) [6]. Liquid Cooling Industry Opportunities - Domestic liquid cooling leader Y Company has entered Meta's supply chain, providing key components with an initial market share of approximately 5-8% [5]. - The report anticipates accelerated penetration of liquid cooling in AI servers, driven by the promotion of NVIDIA's Rubin series and Google's TPU servers [5]. - Companies such as Invec (002837) and Chuanhuan Technology (300547) are recommended for investment [5]. Domestic Computing Power Supply Chain - The report emphasizes investment in core computing hardware companies like Cambricon (688256) and foundries like SMIC (0981.HK) [7]. - The report notes that due to geopolitical considerations, ByteDance has paused its ASIC chip design project with Broadcom and is now working with domestic design service providers [7]. Traditional Analog Chip Recovery Opportunities - The analog chip sector is benefiting from domestic substitution and local-for-local demand, with wafer fab utilization rates remaining high and terminal prices increasing by 10-20% [9]. - Companies such as Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK), Naxin Micro (688052), and Sireen (688536) are highlighted for investment opportunities [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) and Cambricon (688256), among others, while noting that several companies remain unrated [10][12].
摩根士丹利:中国的新兴前沿-投资于不断变化的趋势
摩根· 2025-05-14 05:24
Investment Rating - The report provides an "In-Line" investment rating for the Chinese industrial sector, indicating a balanced outlook on investment opportunities within the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in emerging industries in China that possess structural competitive advantages, particularly in the context of challenges such as debt, deflation, demographic changes, and global multipolarity [3][8]. - It identifies significant opportunities in advanced supply chains and manufacturing, highlighting the potential for growth in sectors such as machinery, automotive, new energy, semiconductors, aerospace, artificial intelligence, software, pharmaceuticals, humanoid robotics, and eVTOL [4][30]. - The report outlines a framework consisting of six key elements that support industry upgrades, which include R&D investment, talent development, capital influx, government policy support, market demand, and supply chain robustness [31][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the Chinese industrial sector as "In-Line," suggesting a cautious but optimistic view on investment prospects [10]. Key Industry Opportunities - The report identifies 28 stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing industrial upgrades and emerging trends in China, focusing on companies that are either upstream in the supply chain or are key enablers in sectors like automation and AI [4][42]. Six Key Elements Framework 1. **R&D Investment**: China’s R&D expenditure is primarily concentrated in manufacturing, with a notable increase in investment in technology and emerging industries [15][31]. 2. **Talent Pool**: China produces the largest number of engineering graduates globally, with a focus on strategic emerging fields such as AI and data science [31][32]. 3. **Capital Influx**: Significant capital has flowed into advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly semiconductors and machinery, with a total of approximately RMB 20 trillion from 2021 to 2024 [32][33]. 4. **Government Support**: The Chinese government has implemented various strategic initiatives to support key industries, including AI, semiconductors, and aerospace, enhancing the investment landscape [33][34]. 5. **Market Demand**: The report highlights a positive feedback loop between rising demand and innovation, particularly in consumer electronics, automotive, and electrical machinery [34]. 6. **Supply Chain Development**: The report discusses the importance of moving up the value chain, particularly in sectors with low localization rates and strong downstream demand [34][35]. Emerging Industry Focus - The report underscores the potential of artificial intelligence to drive significant economic value in China, projecting that AI could contribute RMB 11 trillion to the labor value by 2035, representing 5.5% of nominal GDP [37][38]. - It also notes the expected growth in sectors such as autonomous vehicles and industrial AI applications, which are anticipated to enhance productivity and operational efficiency across various industries [39].