策略周观点：三季报看点和行业配置启示 20251117 摘要 港股近期疲软受多重因素影响，包括海外 AI 泡沫担忧、全球成长股业绩 分化、海外流动性趋紧（如美国政府关门、中小银行风波）以及南向资 金季节性偏弱，共同导致市场承压。 情绪指标显示市场已进入悲观区间，但未达恐慌程度，胜率有待进一步 调整。预计 12 月美国流动性或将改善，明年春季南向资金有望带来行 情，短期内市场或延续弱势震荡。 当前行业配置缺乏基本面支撑，市场更多受资金行为和预期驱动。建议 采取均衡配置策略，关注服务性消费、建筑、房服、家电及红利方向等 补涨空间行业。 港股三季报显示恒指成分公司盈利增速超预期，但扣除金融后盈利预期 下修。非银、医药、金融红利、新消费等板块盈利预期上修，而房地产、 汽车、科技硬件和互联网等行业下修。 A 股近期走势疲软，防御性价值股跑赢成长股。受降息预期下降、海外 AI 担忧及业绩政策空窗期影响，短期内难以形成上涨合力，或呈现宽幅 震荡，建议均衡配置大盘蓝筹和小盘成长。 Q&A 最近市场波动频繁，成长风格表现不佳，主要原因是什么？ 最近市场波动频繁且成长风格表现不佳，主要受到两个因素的影响。首先是海 外 AI 泡沫 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming tariff "storm" is expected to impact China the most, but the country is also the most prepared for it. The focus of domestic policy in the second quarter is becoming clearer, emphasizing supply control and demand support [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Preparation - The investigation results of the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum are anticipated to lead to the highest tariffs and the broadest scope for China. However, Chinese companies have diversified their global presence over the past few years, making them better prepared compared to the shocks experienced in April 2018 [3]. - As of the end of 2023, 49% of Amazon's best-selling sellers are from China, indicating a strong presence in the U.S. retail market. The diversification of U.S. retail has increased, making it unrealistic for retailers to pass on tariff costs entirely to overseas suppliers [3]. Group 2: Domestic Policy Direction - Fiscal spending in the first two months of the year has shifted towards social welfare, with social-related projects increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, while infrastructure spending decreased by 5.6%. This marks the first negative growth in infrastructure spending since 2021 [5]. - The proportion of infrastructure spending is expected to rise from 22.2% to 23.3% by the end of 2024, while social spending will decrease from 43.7% to 42.1% [5]. - The monetary policy is waiting for synchronization with the U.S. to avoid significant currency fluctuations and financial risks. The central bank has indicated potential interest rate cuts to calm the market [6]. Group 3: Market Recovery Expectations - Following the tariff "storm," A-shares are expected to recover, while Hong Kong stocks may undergo a correction. The overseas market's recent volatility is primarily driven by tariff concerns and recession expectations, rather than actual economic downturns [7][8]. - The core operating indicators of major U.S. companies are showing improvement, suggesting that the market may recover after the tariff situation stabilizes [8]. Group 4: Core Asset Resilience - Core assets have demonstrated strong operational resilience, with many companies in the "new core assets" category showing improved performance. As of March 28, 2025, the revenue growth rate for these companies increased to 13.9% in Q4 2024, up from 8.4% in Q3 2024 [10][12]. - The overall revenue growth for non-financial A-shares was only 2.7%, highlighting the relative strength of core assets [12]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current investment strategy emphasizes technology-driven growth, supply-side initiatives, and consumption recovery. The focus remains on sectors like AI, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [15][16]. - There is a recommendation to maintain positions in technology while also considering sectors that benefit from insurance capital allocation, such as Hong Kong dividend stocks [16].

Key Points - The report from CITIC Securities highlights two critical time points in the year: the first is the external risk landing in early April, which is expected to create trading opportunities, and the second is the synchronization of the economic and policy cycles between China and the U.S. around mid-year, which will provide allocation opportunities for core assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Key Time Points - The first key time point is the external risk landing in early April, including the results of the U.S. trade policy memo and the clarity on "reciprocal tariffs." This is expected to lead to trading opportunities in the technology sector due to its weak macroeconomic correlation and strong industrial catalysts [2][3] - The second key time point is the synchronization of the economic and policy cycles between China and the U.S. in mid-year, which may lead to the fourth round of economic stimulus in China since 2013, as the U.S. faces economic weakening and increased tariff pressures [2][8] Group 2: Trading Opportunities - Following the external risk landing in early April, the technology sector is anticipated to experience new trading opportunities, particularly in the context of the U.S. trade policy developments and the expected adjustments in the macroeconomic environment [3][4] - The report emphasizes that edge AI is likely to be a significant catalyst for market movements, with upcoming product launches, particularly from companies like Xiaomi, expected to boost market sentiment [4][10] Group 3: Investment Focus - The report suggests focusing on core assets in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors such as domestic computing power, edge AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong [10] - Additionally, it recommends paying attention to sectors that may experience potential earnings surprises in Q1, including wind power components, engineering machinery, automotive electronics, and service consumption [10]