新股方面，轩竹生物-B（02575.HK）于10月6日至10月10日招股，该公司拟全球发售6733.35万股，其中香港发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另有15%超额配 股权，每股发售价11.6港元。该股每手500股，预期股份将于10月15日在联交所开始买卖。 轩竹生物是一家以创新为驱动的中国生物制药公司，凭借对中国医药行业的理解和对其独特临床需求的洞察，改善患者健康和生活。公司有超过十种药物资 产在积极开发中，涵盖消化系统疾病、肿瘤和非酒精性脂肪性肝炎(NASH)，包括三项NDA批准资产，一个药物项目处于NDA注册阶段，一个药物项目处于 III期临床试验阶段，四个药物项目处于I期临床试验阶段，五个已获IND批准。 今日（10月6日），港股市场小幅低开。截至发稿，恒生指数报27003点，下跌137点，跌幅0.50%。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股普跌，网易低开超2%，随后回升。哔哩哔哩、联想、阿里巴巴、京东、百度跌超1%。腾讯逆势走强，一度涨超1%。黄金股普 涨，中国白银集团涨超10%、珠峰黄金涨超5%；芯片股活跃，宏光半导体涨超1%；汽车股走弱，小鹏汽车跌超4%。 国信证券最新研报指出，由于美联储的态度已经事实上 ...

Market Performance - On September 23, the market experienced a rebound after a significant drop, with the ChiNext index rising by 0.21% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.29% [2] - Over 4,200 stocks declined in the market, with a total trading volume of 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The market saw a brief moment where the number of declining stocks exceeded 5,000, indicating high volatility [2] Technical Indicators - The Wind data indicated that the market indices, including the Wind All A Index and average stock price, approached the 30-day moving average, suggesting a weakening trend for most stocks [4] - The recent strong indices, such as the Shenzhen and ChiNext, experienced downward breaks of their 5-day or 10-day moving averages before slightly recovering [2][4] Market Sentiment and Expectations - There is a belief that a rebound is likely following the significant drop, supported by historical patterns of recovery after sharp declines [5] - The upcoming anniversary of the "9·24" market event is seen as a potential catalyst for market recovery, which could boost investor confidence [10] Fund Flows and External Influences - There were signs of capital inflow towards the end of the trading day, indicating a possible anticipation of market recovery [11] - External factors, such as the performance of US tech stocks, have influenced the A-share market, with some domestic tech stocks opening high but closing lower [11] Market Dynamics and Risks - Analysts suggest that the market's recent downturn may be attributed to profit-taking behavior ahead of the long holiday, particularly among leveraged funds [12] - The current financing balance stands at 2.4 trillion yuan, which, while not excessively high relative to market capitalization, indicates a significant amount of capital that could be affected by risk factors [12] Future Outlook - According to research from Huajin Securities, the market may see stronger performance in October and December due to potential policy shifts and expectations of liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced adjustments after reaching new highs, but it remains in a consolidation phase since September, with a positive outlook on liquidity and market sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The current market's sustainability is heavily influenced by the liquidity situation, which appears to be positive [1] - There is a focus on the direction of market profitability moving forward, with ongoing improvements in overseas liquidity and geopolitical issues [1] - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing upward momentum, supporting a mid-term bullish outlook for the market [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a high position in the market, with an emphasis on balanced sector selection [1] - Attention should be given to the continuation of the positive trends indicated in the third-quarter reports [1] - Specific sectors to focus on include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer goods companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that after reaching a new high, the A-share market has experienced some adjustments but remains in a consolidation phase since September. The sustainability of the current market trend is largely dependent on the positive feedback from the liquidity situation [1] Market Conditions - The current liquidity environment is viewed as positive, with ongoing improvements in overseas liquidity and geopolitical issues. The domestic economic fundamentals are also showing upward momentum, supporting the mid-term outlook for the market [1] Investment Strategy - The company recommends maintaining a high position in the market and emphasizes the importance of balanced sector selection. Attention should be paid to the continuation of profitability trends as reflected in the upcoming third-quarter reports [1] Sector Focus - Specific sectors to watch include: - Domestic computing power chain - Innovative pharmaceuticals - Robotics - Chemicals - Batteries - Leading consumer goods companies [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - In August, the Hong Kong stock market experienced an overall increase, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech rising by 25.0% and 27.0% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached HKD 279.1 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 192.1% [1] - Northbound trading ADT was HKD 322.8 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 45.2% and 204.9% respectively, while southbound trading ADT was HKD 155.2 billion, with increases of 7.4% and 448.3% [1] Group 2: Derivatives Market - In August, the average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 627,000 contracts, showing month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 9.6% and 5.3% respectively [1] - The ADV for options was 962,000 contracts, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 2.1% and 34.5% [1] - As of the end of August, the ADT for structured products such as bull and bear certificates and derivative warrants was HKD 17.5 billion, reflecting increases of 11.9% and 58.6% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) - In August, there were 6 new IPOs in Hong Kong, with a total scale of HKD 5.4 billion, representing a month-on-month decrease of 73% but a year-on-year increase of 189% [2] - The number of newly listed derivative warrants and bull and bear certificates was 941 and 2,386 respectively, with year-on-year increases of 75% and 40% [2] Group 4: Investment Income and Economic Environment - As of the end of August, the HIBOR rates for 6 months, 1 month, overnight, and the US overnight bank funding rate were 3.27%, 3.30%, 4.00%, and 4.33% respectively, with month-on-month increases across the board [2] - The domestic economic environment showed signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.40%, indicating a slight improvement [3] - The overseas economic outlook suggests a strengthening of interest rate cut expectations, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 [3] Group 5: Valuation and Future Outlook - As of the end of August, the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio was 37.02x, positioned at the 52nd percentile historically since 2016, indicating potential value for investors [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 30.3 billion, HKD 33.2 billion, and HKD 35.6 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 19.4 billion, HKD 20.6 billion, and HKD 22.3 billion [4] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 29.3x, 27.7x, and 25.4x respectively, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's technology sector is experiencing a divergence, with some companies like SMIC and Xiaopeng Motors performing well, while others like Xiaomi and Tencent are declining [1][2]. Company Performance - Xiaomi reported impressive Q2 results with revenue of 116 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 10.83 billion RMB, up 75.4% year-on-year, marking a historical high [2]. - Tencent's Q2 revenue grew by 15% and net profit increased by 17%, indicating strong performance among leading tech companies [3]. Market Trends - Despite recent market weaknesses attributed to concerns over e-commerce price wars and economic recovery, there is a significant influx of capital into Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, with net purchases exceeding 940 billion HKD this year [3][9]. - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF has seen a net inflow of over 180 million RMB in the past 14 trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3]. Valuation Insights - The current valuation of the Hong Kong technology index is at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.48, suggesting a high safety margin for investors [7]. - The ETF covering major tech companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi accounts for over 30% of its holdings, providing comprehensive exposure to the sector [6]. Future Outlook - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to perform even better in the second half of the year, driven by performance expectations and valuation restructuring [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in April, with active trading and positive expectations for continued growth in the exchange's performance [1][2]. Market Segments Cash Market - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 10% and 14% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 274.7 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% but a year-on-year increase of 144.7% [1]. - Northbound capital's monthly ADT was HKD 973.2 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 20% and a year-on-year increase of 20%. Southbound capital's monthly ADT was HKD 191.1 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 145% [1]. Derivatives Market - Futures trading volume increased month-on-month, while options trading volume decreased. The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 841,000 contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.6% and a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. The ADV for options was 1,003,000 contracts, showing a month-on-month decrease of 6.0% but a year-on-year increase of 14.0% [1]. Commodity Market - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw an increase in trading volume both month-on-month and year-on-year, with an average daily trading volume of 880,000 contracts, up 10.6% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [2]. Primary Market - The IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with two new stocks listed in April, totaling HKD 2.9 billion, down 73% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year [2]. Investment Income - Investment income rates related to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. As of the end of April, the 6-month HIBOR was 4.03%, the 1-month HIBOR was 3.95%, the overnight HIBOR was 4.50%, and the US overnight bank funding rate was 4.33% [2]. Macroeconomic Environment Domestic Factors - The overall economic sentiment in China declined, with both supply and demand weakening. The manufacturing PMI for April was 49.0%, down 1.50 percentage points month-on-month. New orders and new export orders indices were 49.2% and 44.7%, down 2.60 and 4.30 percentage points respectively [3]. International Factors - The pause in interest rate cuts has led to tightening liquidity overseas, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%. The market expects no rate cuts until June 2025, with a projected 25 basis point cut in September 2025 and a total of 50 basis points for the year [3]. Investment Recommendations - As of the end of April, the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio was 30.52x, indicating a high cost-performance ratio. The company is expected to see revenue and other income of HKD 29.1 billion, 30.6 billion, and 32.1 billion for 2025-2027, with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 17.3 billion, 18.2 billion, and 19.2 billion respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 29.2x, 27.7x, and 26.2x [4].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive time this year that rates have remained unchanged [1] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is closely linked to global liquidity, particularly U.S. dollar liquidity, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, dollar exchange rates, and U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] Group 2 - Changes in U.S. Treasury yields significantly impact cross-border capital flows and the valuation of Hong Kong stocks, with rising yields leading to reduced investment in Hong Kong assets [3] - The monetary policy cycle of the Federal Reserve affects the Hong Kong stock market differently, with initial rate cuts improving liquidity and benefiting the market, while rate hikes can complicate market dynamics [5][4] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index influences international capital allocation preferences, with a stronger dollar increasing the cost of holding non-dollar assets, thereby pressuring Hong Kong stocks [8][9] - Fluctuations in the exchange rate, particularly the USD/CNY rate, affect the earnings of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, indirectly impacting stock valuations [9][10] Group 4 - The Hong Kong-Macau interest rate differential directly affects local liquidity, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority managing the exchange rate through an automatic interest rate adjustment mechanism [14][15] - Changes in the Libor-Hibor spread influence local liquidity conditions, with widening spreads leading to increased financing costs and pressure on high-valuation growth stocks [15][16] Group 5 - The overall impact of overseas liquidity on Hong Kong stocks can be summarized as follows: U.S. Treasury yields, U.S.-China interest rate differentials, and Hong Kong-Macau interest rate differentials drive style shifts through valuation and capital flow effects, while the dollar index and exchange rate fluctuations influence market preferences [19]