最近公布的美国部分数据存在韧性，美指出现止跌企稳迹象，贵金属波动加剧，沪铜走势也受到影响， 今日呈现先抑后扬走势，目前期价高位运行，后续仍需关注市场对于海外流动性的预期和中美重要经济 数据表现。 本周沪铜继续上探，国内现货贴水继续扩大，暗示下游需求偏弱。 沪铜早间低开下行，随后不断回暖，收盘上涨1%，期价徘徊在纪录高位附近。沪铜走势受贵金属行情 影响，目前继续高位运行，但国内需求疲弱，现货贴水扩大，社会库存大幅增加。 对于铜价走势，金源期货表示，强劲的美国经济增长数据强化了市场对金属需求向好的信心，美铜维持 较高的关税预期溢价令海外铜持续流向北美导致库存发生严重错配，而全球电气化和人工智能蓬勃发展 为铜提供了广阔的需求前景，美元指数疲软提振金属板块；基本面来看，全球矿端维持紧缺格局，非美 地区库存总体偏低，国内精铜有减产预期，预计铜价短期将维持偏强走势。 （文华综合） ...

12月17日，港股股指止步连跌迎来反弹行情，截止午盘，恒生指数涨0.22%报25291.4点，恒生科技指数 涨0.02%报5403.74点，国企指数涨0.27%报8781.76点，红筹指数跌0.11%报4055.42点。 盘面上，大型科技股走势分化，阿里巴巴涨0.55%，腾讯控股涨0.5%，京东集团涨0.72%，小米集团跌 0.59%，网易跌0.47%，美团涨1.21%，快手涨0.39%，哔哩哔哩跌0.05%；航空股强势，南方航空涨超 7%；黄金股回暖，赤峰黄金涨超2%；HashKey Exchange首日破发；军工股、风电股、燃气股、汽车股 走低。 企业新闻 越秀地产(00123.HK)：获授5亿港元的定期贷款融资。 中国能源建设(03996.HK)：投资建设的中能建松原氢能产业园(绿色氢氨醇一体化)项目一期工程正式投 产运行。 中煤能源(01898.HK)：前11月商品煤销量为约2.34亿吨，同比减少8.7%。11月煤销量为2174万吨，同比 减少15.7%。 中国太保(02601.HK)：前11月，太平洋人寿累计原保险保费收入为人民币2503.22亿元，同比增长 9.4%，太平洋财险累计原保险保费收入为 ...

Market Overview - On December 16, the A-share market opened lower and experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3815 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3824.81 points, down 1.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51% to 12914.67 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,483 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - Consumer, diversified finance, automotive, and real estate sectors performed well, while precious metals, shipbuilding, power equipment, and wind power sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with commercial retail, education, diversified finance, and food and beverage sectors showing the highest gains[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.89 times and 48.54 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] - The current macroeconomic environment is in a mild recovery phase, but the foundation still needs consolidation[3] Future Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point mark, with cyclical and technology sectors likely to perform in rotation[3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments, with short-term focus on aerospace, consumer, automotive, and diversified finance sectors[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas recession impacting domestic economic recovery, domestic policy and economic recovery progress falling short of expectations, and international relations changes affecting the economic environment[4]

风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 我们虽然聚焦港股科技股，但是先说说港股整体，港股很有意思，它是离岸市场，因此既受在港上市中 国企业基本面的影响，也受海外流动性的影响。 我们先分析海外流动性对港股的潜在影响，目前美联储今年已降息两次，市场普遍认为12月份降息概率 较大，但也存在对"鹰派降息"的担忧。所谓"鹰派降息"，就是降得不情不愿，降个息顺便还威胁一下 你，大致就是这种情况。不过我们认为，即便今年12月份是鹰派降息，明年美联储仍大概率有2-3次降 息。因此，从海外流动性对港股的影响来看，这一因素应属利好。 近期港股表现不佳，主要还是受海外流动性影响，美国政府停摆持续时间之长，是以往从未有过的，这 直接导致市场流动性紧张。为什么？因为美国政府一直在发债，发债筹集的资金不断沉淀在账上，而此 前美国政府未能正常运作期间，这些资金花不出去，变相造成了市场资金紧张。因此，近期港股表现不 尽理想，与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Total Return Index is expected to experience its strongest calendar effect from December to mid-January, with a high probability of absolute and excess returns during this period [1]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - The absolute return probability is 90.9%, with median and average gains of 3.4% and 4.6% respectively [3][19]. - The probability of excess returns compared to the CSI 300 Total Return Index is 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 5.6% and 2.1% respectively [3][19]. - The probability of excess returns compared to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index is also 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 3.6% and 3.2% respectively [3][19]. - The probability of excess returns compared to the Hang Seng Index Total Return is 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 1.0% and 1.6% respectively [3][19]. Group 2: Reasons for Calendar Effect - A key reason for the strong year-end effect is the rebalancing of assets by public funds seeking relative returns, leading to a shift from high-valuation growth stocks to high-dividend, high-safety Hong Kong stocks [4]. - December to January is a peak period for insurance premiums, prompting some insurance funds to quickly build positions in high-dividend assets to match liability costs, creating a rigid buying pressure [4]. - Year-end policy catalysts or announcements may also stimulate the Hong Kong dividend market, especially if supportive dividend policies are implemented or if growth stabilization policies fall short of expectations [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Total Return Index has shown strong performance from December to mid-January since 2014, with a win rate of 82% compared to the CSI 300 Total Return, CSI Dividend Total Return, and Hang Seng Index Total Return [15][19]. - The index's trading volume currently represents only 6.1% of the market, indicating a relatively low level of crowding and potential for reallocation [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing signs of bottoming out, with key risks such as US-China trade tensions and the impact of the "takeout war" on internet sector profitability being sufficiently released, indicating limited downside potential for current market levels [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow fluctuations this week, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase. The market is nearing a state where negative factors have been largely priced in, leading to a relatively stable outlook [1]. - The sentiment indicators remain in a pessimistic range, indicating a lack of strong catalysts for market movement, which points towards opportunities for left-side positioning [1]. Key Risk Factors Released - US-China relations have stabilized following recent communications between leaders, reducing short-term uncertainty [2]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts have rebounded, with the probability of a December FOMC rate cut exceeding 80% [2]. - Concerns regarding the impact of the "takeout war" on leading internet companies have peaked, with recent earnings reports from Alibaba and Meituan showing stability and signs of reduced subsidy pressures [2]. Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - Southbound net purchases of Hong Kong stocks decreased to HKD 19.8 billion, down from HKD 38.6 billion the previous week, but seasonal effects suggest potential for increased inflows in December [3]. - Foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks increased to USD 1.43 billion, indicating a positive trend despite seasonal tightening of capital [3]. - The potential unlock amount for December is approximately HKD 120 billion, which is manageable compared to previous months [3]. Earnings Guidance and Sector Focus - The current earnings disclosure period for Hong Kong stocks is nearing its end, with 67% of market capitalization having reported. Focus should be on sectors with improved fundamentals, particularly consumer goods and healthcare, which have shown stable earnings expectations [3]. - Recent adjustments in revenue and earnings forecasts indicate a mixed outlook, with consumer goods showing an upward revision of 2.8% while sectors like automotive and technology hardware have seen significant downward adjustments [3]. Investment Opportunities - Investors with a higher risk appetite may consider gradually building positions in the market, particularly in sectors where earnings expectations have stabilized post-adjustment [3]. - The current market environment suggests that investors should look for opportunities in consumer goods and healthcare sectors, which have shown resilience and potential for growth [3].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and the A-share market (A 股), focusing on their recent performance and outlook. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Weakness Factors** The recent weakness in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over the overseas AI bubble, performance divergence in global growth stocks, tightening global liquidity, and seasonal weakness in southbound capital. These factors collectively exert pressure on the market [1][2][4]. 2. **Sentiment Indicators** Current sentiment indicators suggest that the market has entered a pessimistic zone, with indicators around 40, but have not reached panic levels below 30. This indicates a potential for further adjustments before a recovery [5]. 3. **Future Liquidity Expectations** It is anticipated that liquidity in the U.S. may improve in December, with the potential release of approximately $100 billion from the TGA account and a halt in balance sheet reduction, which could alleviate pressure on reserves [5]. 4. **Sector Performance in Q3 Reports** The Q3 reports for Hong Kong stocks show that around 40% of Hang Seng Index constituent companies have reported earnings, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4%, exceeding expectations by 3%. However, excluding the financial sector, earnings expectations have been revised down by 0.7% [8]. 5. **Sectoral Earnings Adjustments** Earnings expectations have been revised upwards for sectors such as non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, financial dividends, and new consumption, while downward revisions were noted for real estate, automotive, technology hardware, and internet sectors [8]. 6. **A-Share Market Trends** The A-share market has shown a lackluster performance, with defensive value stocks outperforming growth stocks. The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to declining interest rate expectations and concerns over the overseas AI bubble [9]. 7. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors with potential for recovery, such as service consumption, construction, housing services, and home appliances. This approach is suggested due to the lack of strong fundamental support for current market styles [6][7]. 8. **Capacity Cycle Insights** The capacity cycle is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, with a focus on industries that significantly expanded capacity between 2021 and 2023 but currently have low utilization rates. Industries are categorized based on their proximity to capacity cycle inflection points [13]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Behavior Influences** The current market behavior is driven more by capital flows and future expectations rather than fundamental data, indicating a speculative trading environment [6]. 2. **Potential for Small-cap Stocks** There are signs of relaxation in private equity securities registration, which may support small-cap stocks, suggesting a potential area of focus for investors [9][10]. 3. **Trends in Q3 Financial Reports** The Q3 financial reports indicate a positive trend with revenue and profit growth showing upward inflection points, suggesting a recovery trajectory that may continue into the future [12]. 4. **Investment Style Adaptation** Historical data suggests that October is typically a period where performance factors are less effective, indicating that a "barbell" strategy, which includes both dividend and small-cap stocks, may be more suitable during such times [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract price is expected to range between 87,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy - Cost support and supply - demand balance drive the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton. [5] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by macro - level interest - rate cut expectations and LME squeeze risks. However, the supply is relatively loose, and the price may oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply logic. The main contract is expected to range from 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [9] Tin - Strong supply fundamentals support the tin price to oscillate strongly. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [11] Nickel - Macro - level sentiment weakens slightly, but cost support exists. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [13] Stainless Steel - The policy is stable, demand during the peak season is weak, and supply pressure may increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have improved, with a supply - demand gap during the peak season. The short - term price is expected to be strong, with the main focus on whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton. [17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.35% to 87,905 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.22% to 3,975 yuan/ton. [1] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. [1] Weekly Fundamental Data - The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 67.81 million tons. [1] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 1.03% to 13.46 million tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.06% to 34.77 million short tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 21,160 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in Shandong, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased. [3] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. [3] Weekly Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.37% to 53.70%, and the aluminum foil开工率 decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%. [3] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 0.77% to 46.6 million tons. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased. [5] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons. [5] Weekly Fundamental Data - The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 7.73% to 57.54%. [5] Daily Fundamental Data - The daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan decreased by 0.20% to 33,257 tons. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.27% to 22,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 5,294 yuan/ton. [9] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons. [9] Weekly Fundamental Data - The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.57% to 57.48%. [9] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 4.86% to 3.5 million tons. [9] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.28% to 284,300 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 8.14% to - 14,746.45 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons. [11] Inventory Data - SHEF inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons. [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.734% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 18.314% to - 898 yuan/ton. [13] Production and Inventory Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons. [13] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton. [14] Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.22% to 927 yuan/nickel point. [14] Monthly Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. [14] Weekly Fundamental Data - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.37% to 49.49 million tons. [14] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.55% to 78,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 2.10% to 825 dollars/ton. [17] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. [17] Inventory Data - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 84,539 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 60,998 tons. [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that copper prices are experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 88,700 yuan, the highest since late May of the previous year, and closing up by 1.73% [1] - Recent macroeconomic factors have positively influenced copper demand, including the approval of the domestic "14th Five-Year Plan," which has boosted market confidence, and preliminary agreements in the US-China trade negotiations [1] - The lower-than-expected CPI increase in the US for September has intensified market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to an anticipated increase in overseas liquidity and an overall warmer market atmosphere [1] Group 2 - Despite high prices, demand in October has been average; however, as of last Thursday, domestic refined copper social inventories have stopped accumulating [2] - According to Jinrui Futures, the recent marginal improvement in macroeconomic conditions is the main driver for copper prices, which are expected to see an increase in positions and may experience strong fluctuations in the short term [2] - Continuous attention is required on macroeconomic changes, as the fundamental reality remains weak, limiting the support for copper prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite following the Sino - US trade talks. Macro factors like tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and COMEX - LME spread are important. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, but high prices may suppress downstream demand. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. Spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is significant, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to LME zinc market concerns and Sino - US trade talks, zinc prices rebounded. Supply is expected to be loose, and demand has no outstanding performance. Short - term prices may be driven by macro factors, but the upward elasticity is limited, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices continued to oscillate at a high level. Supply is tight, and demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Macro factors are temporarily stable, cost has support, but inventory accumulation exerts pressure [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to weakly oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton. There is cost support at the ore end, but demand during the peak season is not strongly boosted [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 76,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals have improved, with strong demand during the peak season and continued destocking [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85,490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day. The opening discount decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3,366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased to varying degrees [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 6,393 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price fell to 280,000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 16,213.05 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The import loss decreased to 670 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,000 yuan/ton. The futures - spot price difference decreased to 405 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74,800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) decreased to - 1,980 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month. The demand was 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [16].