分享时间 C 2026年3月1日 周日 20:00-21:30 分享议题 H 1、如何理解美联储新主席沃什政策预期? 2、如何从6部门T字表跟踪海外流动性变化? 3、前瞻3月美联储议息会议与海外流动性环境 4、展望2026年全球大类资产主线 加入Alpha闭门私享会会员>> 【美联储专题 Alpha闭门会预告】本周日（3月1日）20：00 坦途宏观GMF Research创始人【程坦】闭门分 享如何理解美联储新主席沃什政策预期，前瞻3月美联储议息会议与海外流动性。 本期闭门会上会重点讲解下海外流动性跟踪的6部门T字表框架，对美联储，海外流动性话题感兴趣的朋友 可以报名。本期分享嘉宾程坦，坦途宏观（GMF Research）创始人兼研究总监，北京大学光华管理学院金 融学博士，在《管理世界》等期刊上发表多篇学术论文。GMF Research是专注于海外宏观和大类资产研究 的独立研究机构，机构客户覆盖国内数十家头部资产管理机构和私募基金。 ...

近期，QDII基金的溢价风险频繁暴露。 据21世纪经济报道记者粗略统计，春节假期后两个交易日内，超过30只QDII基金公告提示了溢价风 险，涉及纳指ETF、标普500ETF、标普油气ETF、日经225ETF、原油LOF等产品。 批量提示溢价风险 2月25日午间收盘时段，纳斯达克ETF、标普500ETF、标普油气ETF、日经225ETF、巴西ETF等8只QDII 基金分别公告称，截至当日午间收盘，其二级市场交易价格明显高于基金份额参考净值，出现较大幅度 溢价。 例如，个别产品二级市场价格较基金份额参考净值溢价幅度达到6%。 不仅如此，同一天，另有10只QDII基金通过公告，提示投资者关注其二级市场交易价格溢价风险。 若追溯至2月24日，春节假期后的2个交易日内，超过30只QDII基金发布了溢价风险公告。 其中，个别产品除了提示溢价风险，还同步采取了停牌措施。 2月25日凌晨，易方达基金公告称，为保护投资者的利益，原油LOF易方达于2026年2月25日开市起至当 日10:30停牌，自2026年2月25日10:30复牌。若该基金在公告日当日二级市场交易价格溢价幅度未有效 回落，基金可根据实际情况通过向深圳证券交易所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices rising by 1% and hovering near record highs, influenced by precious metal trends and domestic demand weakness [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Shanghai copper opened lower but rebounded throughout the day, closing up 1% [1] - The current price of copper is affected by the volatility in precious metals and the weak domestic demand, leading to an expansion of the cash discount and a significant increase in social inventory [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. data shows resilience, indicating signs of stabilization, which has impacted the copper market [1] - The expectation of overseas liquidity and key economic data from China and the U.S. will be crucial for future price movements [1] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic cash discounts continue to widen, suggesting weak downstream demand [1] - Strong U.S. economic growth data enhances market confidence in metal demand, while high tariff expectations on U.S. copper lead to significant inventory mismatches [1] - Global electrification and AI development present a broad demand outlook for copper, with a weak U.S. dollar boosting the metal sector [1] - The global mining sector remains tight, with low inventories in non-U.S. regions and expectations of reduced domestic refined copper production, indicating a likely strong short-term price trend for copper [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rebound on December 17, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.22% to 25,291.4 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.02% to 5,403.74 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.27% to 8,781.76 points, while the Red Chip Index fell by 0.11% to 4,055.42 points [1] Company News - China Energy Construction (03996.HK) announced the official production commencement of the first phase of the Zhongnengjian Songyuan Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park project [2] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) reported a total coal sales volume of approximately 234 million tons for the first 11 months, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, with November sales at 21.74 million tons, down 15.7% year-on-year [2] - China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK) disclosed that its cumulative original insurance premium income for Pacific Life reached RMB 250.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while Pacific Property's premium income was RMB 187.68 billion, up 0.3% year-on-year [2] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692.HK) entered into a licensing agreement with Glenmark for Amivantamab, which includes an upfront payment and potential milestone payments exceeding USD 1 billion, along with tiered royalties on net sales in the licensed territory [2] Financing Activities - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) secured a term loan financing of HKD 500 million [3] - China Railway Construction (01186.HK) plans to issue up to HKD 4 billion of perpetual corporate bonds [4] - Genscript Biotech (01672.HK) increased its share buyback fund from a maximum of HKD 300 million to HKD 500 million [5] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.067 million shares for approximately HKD 636 million at prices ranging from HKD 592.5 to HKD 602.5 [6] - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) repurchased 7.2 million shares for approximately HKD 294 million at prices between HKD 40.36 and HKD 41.00 [7] - Kuaishou Technology (01024.HK) repurchased 1.8231 million shares for approximately HKD 116 million at prices from HKD 63.05 to HKD 64.4 [8] - Geely Automobile (00175.HK) repurchased 299,900 shares for approximately HKD 50.54 million at prices between HKD 16.72 and HKD 17.2 [9] Institutional Insights - CMB International noted that the recent weakness in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to southbound capital returning to A-shares due to new public fund benchmark regulations, concerns over IPO financing, and a peak in lock-up expirations, while the market has potential for a year-end recovery [10] - Ping An International observed that the market sentiment index for Hong Kong stocks has been volatile since November, influenced by fluctuating expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and corrections in the U.S. AI sector, with the forward P/E ratio of the Hang Seng Index at 12.7 times, down 5% from its yearly peak [10] - CMB Securities indicated that the Hong Kong market has not stabilized post U.S. rate cuts, primarily due to internal liquidity issues, including the implementation of new public fund regulations and significant demand for capital [10]

Market Overview - On December 16, the A-share market opened lower and experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3815 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3824.81 points, down 1.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51% to 12914.67 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,483 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - Consumer, diversified finance, automotive, and real estate sectors performed well, while precious metals, shipbuilding, power equipment, and wind power sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with commercial retail, education, diversified finance, and food and beverage sectors showing the highest gains[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.89 times and 48.54 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] - The current macroeconomic environment is in a mild recovery phase, but the foundation still needs consolidation[3] Future Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point mark, with cyclical and technology sectors likely to perform in rotation[3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments, with short-term focus on aerospace, consumer, automotive, and diversified finance sectors[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas recession impacting domestic economic recovery, domestic policy and economic recovery progress falling short of expectations, and international relations changes affecting the economic environment[4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is influenced by both the fundamentals of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and overseas liquidity [1] - The recent poor performance of the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to tight liquidity caused by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which has led to funds being trapped and not utilized [1] - Despite concerns about a hawkish interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, it is expected that there will be 2-3 rate cuts in the following year, which could positively impact liquidity in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market features a diverse range of asset types, including major companies in the internet sector and technology sector, with the Hong Kong technology sector covering innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - The Hong Kong technology ETF (513020) and the Hong Kong internet ETF (513723) are recommended for investors looking to capture opportunities in the technology sector amid the AI wave [3] - The energy sector is also highlighted, with a potential linkage between the renewable energy and AI chip industries, especially in light of electricity shortages in the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Total Return Index is expected to experience its strongest calendar effect from December to mid-January, with a high probability of absolute and excess returns during this period [1]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - The absolute return probability is 90.9%, with median and average gains of 3.4% and 4.6% respectively [3][19]. - The probability of excess returns compared to the CSI 300 Total Return Index is 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 5.6% and 2.1% respectively [3][19]. - The probability of excess returns compared to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index is also 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 3.6% and 3.2% respectively [3][19]. - The probability of excess returns compared to the Hang Seng Index Total Return is 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 1.0% and 1.6% respectively [3][19]. Group 2: Reasons for Calendar Effect - A key reason for the strong year-end effect is the rebalancing of assets by public funds seeking relative returns, leading to a shift from high-valuation growth stocks to high-dividend, high-safety Hong Kong stocks [4]. - December to January is a peak period for insurance premiums, prompting some insurance funds to quickly build positions in high-dividend assets to match liability costs, creating a rigid buying pressure [4]. - Year-end policy catalysts or announcements may also stimulate the Hong Kong dividend market, especially if supportive dividend policies are implemented or if growth stabilization policies fall short of expectations [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Total Return Index has shown strong performance from December to mid-January since 2014, with a win rate of 82% compared to the CSI 300 Total Return, CSI Dividend Total Return, and Hang Seng Index Total Return [15][19]. - The index's trading volume currently represents only 6.1% of the market, indicating a relatively low level of crowding and potential for reallocation [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing signs of bottoming out, with key risks such as US-China trade tensions and the impact of the "takeout war" on internet sector profitability being sufficiently released, indicating limited downside potential for current market levels [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow fluctuations this week, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase. The market is nearing a state where negative factors have been largely priced in, leading to a relatively stable outlook [1]. - The sentiment indicators remain in a pessimistic range, indicating a lack of strong catalysts for market movement, which points towards opportunities for left-side positioning [1]. Key Risk Factors Released - US-China relations have stabilized following recent communications between leaders, reducing short-term uncertainty [2]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts have rebounded, with the probability of a December FOMC rate cut exceeding 80% [2]. - Concerns regarding the impact of the "takeout war" on leading internet companies have peaked, with recent earnings reports from Alibaba and Meituan showing stability and signs of reduced subsidy pressures [2]. Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - Southbound net purchases of Hong Kong stocks decreased to HKD 19.8 billion, down from HKD 38.6 billion the previous week, but seasonal effects suggest potential for increased inflows in December [3]. - Foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks increased to USD 1.43 billion, indicating a positive trend despite seasonal tightening of capital [3]. - The potential unlock amount for December is approximately HKD 120 billion, which is manageable compared to previous months [3]. Earnings Guidance and Sector Focus - The current earnings disclosure period for Hong Kong stocks is nearing its end, with 67% of market capitalization having reported. Focus should be on sectors with improved fundamentals, particularly consumer goods and healthcare, which have shown stable earnings expectations [3]. - Recent adjustments in revenue and earnings forecasts indicate a mixed outlook, with consumer goods showing an upward revision of 2.8% while sectors like automotive and technology hardware have seen significant downward adjustments [3]. Investment Opportunities - Investors with a higher risk appetite may consider gradually building positions in the market, particularly in sectors where earnings expectations have stabilized post-adjustment [3]. - The current market environment suggests that investors should look for opportunities in consumer goods and healthcare sectors, which have shown resilience and potential for growth [3].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and the A-share market (A 股), focusing on their recent performance and outlook. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Weakness Factors** The recent weakness in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over the overseas AI bubble, performance divergence in global growth stocks, tightening global liquidity, and seasonal weakness in southbound capital. These factors collectively exert pressure on the market [1][2][4]. 2. **Sentiment Indicators** Current sentiment indicators suggest that the market has entered a pessimistic zone, with indicators around 40, but have not reached panic levels below 30. This indicates a potential for further adjustments before a recovery [5]. 3. **Future Liquidity Expectations** It is anticipated that liquidity in the U.S. may improve in December, with the potential release of approximately $100 billion from the TGA account and a halt in balance sheet reduction, which could alleviate pressure on reserves [5]. 4. **Sector Performance in Q3 Reports** The Q3 reports for Hong Kong stocks show that around 40% of Hang Seng Index constituent companies have reported earnings, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4%, exceeding expectations by 3%. However, excluding the financial sector, earnings expectations have been revised down by 0.7% [8]. 5. **Sectoral Earnings Adjustments** Earnings expectations have been revised upwards for sectors such as non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, financial dividends, and new consumption, while downward revisions were noted for real estate, automotive, technology hardware, and internet sectors [8]. 6. **A-Share Market Trends** The A-share market has shown a lackluster performance, with defensive value stocks outperforming growth stocks. The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to declining interest rate expectations and concerns over the overseas AI bubble [9]. 7. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors with potential for recovery, such as service consumption, construction, housing services, and home appliances. This approach is suggested due to the lack of strong fundamental support for current market styles [6][7]. 8. **Capacity Cycle Insights** The capacity cycle is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, with a focus on industries that significantly expanded capacity between 2021 and 2023 but currently have low utilization rates. Industries are categorized based on their proximity to capacity cycle inflection points [13]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Behavior Influences** The current market behavior is driven more by capital flows and future expectations rather than fundamental data, indicating a speculative trading environment [6]. 2. **Potential for Small-cap Stocks** There are signs of relaxation in private equity securities registration, which may support small-cap stocks, suggesting a potential area of focus for investors [9][10]. 3. **Trends in Q3 Financial Reports** The Q3 financial reports indicate a positive trend with revenue and profit growth showing upward inflection points, suggesting a recovery trajectory that may continue into the future [12]. 4. **Investment Style Adaptation** Historical data suggests that October is typically a period where performance factors are less effective, indicating that a "barbell" strategy, which includes both dividend and small-cap stocks, may be more suitable during such times [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract price is expected to range between 87,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy - Cost support and supply - demand balance drive the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton. [5] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by macro - level interest - rate cut expectations and LME squeeze risks. However, the supply is relatively loose, and the price may oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply logic. The main contract is expected to range from 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [9] Tin - Strong supply fundamentals support the tin price to oscillate strongly. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [11] Nickel - Macro - level sentiment weakens slightly, but cost support exists. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [13] Stainless Steel - The policy is stable, demand during the peak season is weak, and supply pressure may increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have improved, with a supply - demand gap during the peak season. The short - term price is expected to be strong, with the main focus on whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton. [17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.35% to 87,905 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.22% to 3,975 yuan/ton. [1] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. [1] Weekly Fundamental Data - The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 67.81 million tons. [1] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 1.03% to 13.46 million tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.06% to 34.77 million short tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 21,160 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in Shandong, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased. [3] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. [3] Weekly Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.37% to 53.70%, and the aluminum foil开工率 decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%. [3] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 0.77% to 46.6 million tons. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased. [5] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons. [5] Weekly Fundamental Data - The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 7.73% to 57.54%. [5] Daily Fundamental Data - The daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan decreased by 0.20% to 33,257 tons. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.27% to 22,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 5,294 yuan/ton. [9] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons. [9] Weekly Fundamental Data - The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.57% to 57.48%. [9] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 4.86% to 3.5 million tons. [9] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.28% to 284,300 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 8.14% to - 14,746.45 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons. [11] Inventory Data - SHEF inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons. [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.734% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 18.314% to - 898 yuan/ton. [13] Production and Inventory Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons. [13] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton. [14] Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.22% to 927 yuan/nickel point. [14] Monthly Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. [14] Weekly Fundamental Data - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.37% to 49.49 million tons. [14] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.55% to 78,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 2.10% to 825 dollars/ton. [17] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. [17] Inventory Data - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 84,539 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 60,998 tons. [17]