格隆汇1月8日｜美国天然气期货走低，市场正等待美国能源情报署(EIA)于美东时间上午10:30公布的每 周库存报告。《华尔街日报》(WSJ)调查的分析师预测，截至1月2日当周的天然气库存将减少1,200亿立 方英尺。EBW Analytics的Eli Rubin在一份报告中称："除非出现重大意外，否则市场可能会忽略这份不 稳定的假日周EIA报告，转而关注1月下旬不断变化的天气预报。"天然气价格昨日因天气预报趋冷而上 涨，但Rubin补充说："在过去一个月天气预报屡次失准、预期的寒冷天气未能持续推进之后，市场可能 在等待更高的确定性，然后才会完全反映1月下旬寒流来袭的预期。"纽约商交所(Nymex)天然气价格下 跌1.8%，报每百万英热单位3.461美元。 ...

【内容摘要】1月7日，资金面继续维持宽松格局；债市继续承压走弱；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要 欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【2025年12月外储规模小幅上升，央行连续14个月增持黄金】国家外汇管理局1月7日发布的数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美 元，较11月末上升115亿美元，升幅为0.34%。国家外汇管理局表示，2025年12月，受主要经济体货币政策、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全 球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，环比增加3万 盎司，为我国央行连续第14个月增持黄金。 【央行将开展1.1万亿元买断式逆回购操作】1月7日，央行发布公告称，1月8日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1.1万亿元买断式逆回购操 作，期限为3个月（90天）。鉴于月内有同等规模的到期量，本次操作后将实现3个月期买断式逆回购等量续作。这也是央行连续第三个月等量续做3个月期 买断式逆回购。另外，本月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Potential [4] - Silver: Potential [4] - Lead: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Platinum: On hold [4] - Palladium: On hold [4] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative, with the USD index ranging between 95 - 102, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend, ranging from 6.8 - 7.2 [6]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on market conditions such as price differences, inventory changes, and exchange rate expectations [4][5]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread declined. This week, given the relatively high valuation of the price difference and the expected RMB appreciation, it is recommended to go long COMEX and short SHFE [12][13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - foreign silver price difference rose and then fell, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread decreased. This week, due to the high - level price difference, the tight overseas spot market, and the expected RMB appreciation, it is recommended to go long COMEX and short SHFE [19][20]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Last week, the price gap between platinum and palladium narrowed significantly, and the previous high premium was largely restored. This week, it is recommended to close the long/short positions and take profits, and put the positions on hold [26][33]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In the off - season of demand, domestic copper inventory is still accumulating, and the copper import window remains in a loss state. Cross - market arbitrage is recommended to be on hold [40]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingots are accumulating, while LME aluminum inventory is decreasing. The short - term exchange ratio fluctuates within a range, and cross - market arbitrage is on hold [45]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, priced - locked zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and domestic zinc inventory has room to decline, while LME zinc inventory is rising. It is recommended to go long SHFE and short LME [54]. - **Lead**: Domestic lead ingot social inventory may rise, LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the lead ingot import window is open. It is recommended to go long LME lead and short SHFE lead [60]. - **Nickel**: The import window remains open, the balance ratio has slightly declined, and domestic and foreign inventories are at relatively high levels. Cross - market arbitrage is on hold [61]. - **Tin**: The domestic - foreign tin price ratio fluctuated, the spot tin import window is closed, and the import loss is 15,368 yuan/ton. Cross - market arbitrage is on hold [65]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [69]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The SC - Brent price spread has been fluctuating. Due to the weakening of Middle - East crude oil spot, high geopolitical uncertainties, and the significant decline in freight rates, it is recommended to wait and see [73][74]. - **Natural Gas**: The price difference between Europe and the US fluctuated. With expected mild temperatures in January, gas prices in Europe and the US are weak. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the opportunity of spread narrowing when the US gas price rebounds [109]. Agriculturals - **Soybean**: The crushing profit has been fluctuating at the bottom. Due to the slow progress of Chinese purchases, US soybeans showed a weak downward trend, promoting the recovery of profit levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Sugar**: Both the domestic and foreign markets rebounded at low levels, and the price difference fluctuated within a narrow range. In the short term, due to the difficulty in increasing imports, the driving force for spread convergence is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. - **Natural Rubber**: There were no major changes last week, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage range. Supply is expected to increase, but demand has not improved. It is recommended to wait and see [88]. Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: The negative impact of the Fed's hawkish stance in December has been digested. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair and the strengthening of gold and silver prices, the COMEX - LME copper spread may rise. Also, the expected US copper tariff limits the spread's downside. It is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: The Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS has been fluctuating. Due to the weakening of Middle - East crude oil spot and the resilient US production, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100]. - **WTI - Brent**: The WTI - Brent spread has been fluctuating. Although freight rates have declined significantly, the high - level operation of US refineries, stable US crude oil production, and high geopolitical uncertainties limit the spread's driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [105][106]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: The price difference has been fluctuating. With expected mild temperatures in January, gas prices in Europe and the US are weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of spread narrowing when the US gas price rebounds [109].

南华期货（603093）： 原油端，市场依然对地缘风险给与了一定的溢价，对比美委冲突，伊朗的风险对于lpg市场来说更为直 接。丙烷方面，在过去一周中东发运依然偏低，但美国库存出现了逆季节性上涨仍给价格带来一些压 力。从国内本期基本面来看，供应端本期依然偏紧，港口到港量低点，港库连续去化。需求端整体变动 不大，化工需求依然持稳，PDH端虽维持亏损状态，但开工仍上行至76.36%，短期依然没有检修反 馈。短期关注下海外事件的后续以及国内PDH可能的检修。 瑞达期货（002961）： 短期地缘局势、OPEC+暂停增产及对未来供应过剩担忧等多空交织，国际油价震荡。LPG国际方面， 中东供应较为有限而远东需求旺季，仍对液化气价格起支撑作用。供应方面，部分炼厂装置运行不稳定 及部分炼厂外放增加，整体供应出现回升。短期港口到船量减少，叠加气温下降促使燃烧需求增强，港 口库存呈下降趋势，但本周预计码头到船有增量，港口库存有增加预期。需求方面，临近元旦民用气有 补库意愿，但预计跟进有限。综合来看，短期整体供需压力不大，但库存增加预期，原油走势反复，液 化气预计震荡为主。从技术面看，PG主力合约隔夜震荡收涨，上方关注4250附近 ...

2026 年天然气价格如何展望？20251230 摘要 2025 年全球 LNG 市场呈现西强东弱格局，欧洲 LNG 进口量同比增长 26%，达 1.19 亿吨，主要来自美国，而中国及其他亚洲国家需求相对 疲软，中国天然气表观消费量同比增长仅 1.5%，约为 4,360 亿立方米。 2025 年中国天然气市场整体低迷，进口 LNG 总量同比下降 13%，至 6,700 万吨，主要受贸易摩擦和产业政策影响，工业用气需求疲软，且 对美国 LNG 加征关税导致进口量大幅减少。 2025 年全球 LNG 供应增长主要来自美国，其 LNG 出口量首次突破 1 亿吨，同比增长 30%以上，主要得益于 VG 公司的 Black Liquor Gas 等大型项目投产，全球液化厂利用率达 91%。 2025 年全球新签 LNG 长协合同规模显著提高，同比增长 27%，总计 8,000 多万吨，表明各国对未来天然气需求看好，并增加对能源安全的 重视，合同期限普遍较长，部分甚至达到 30 年。 展望 2026 年，全球天然气市场预计进入宽松期，价格呈下行趋势，新 增 LNG 产能将超过 5.1 亿吨，其中一半增量来自美国，可能导致 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum, Palladium, Lead, Zinc: Potential [4] - Natural Gas (TFU - HH): On hold [4] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2026, with the US dollar index expected to range between 95 - 102, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend, ranging from 6.8 - 7.2 [6] - For some commodities, due to factors such as price differences, inventory changes, and import - export windows, specific cross - market arbitrage strategies are recommended, including holding or adding positions for some, and observing for others [4][5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the domestic - foreign price difference fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread trended higher. This week, with a neutral valuation of the price difference, short - term observation is recommended [12] - **Silver**: Last week, the price fluctuated sharply, and the domestic - foreign price difference rose and then fell. This week, due to short - term sentiment - driven and increased risk of irrational fluctuations, short - term observation is recommended [18] - **Platinum**: Last week, the domestic - foreign price difference was still high, much higher than the import cost. This week, continue to hold or add long NYMEX, short GFEX positions [24] - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic - foreign price difference narrowed, but the domestic premium was still higher than the import cost. This week, continue to hold or add long NYMEX, short GFEX positions [31] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, domestic copper inventory accumulated in the off - season, and the import window was in loss. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [38] - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingots started to accumulate, and LME aluminum inventory continued to decline. The short - term price ratio oscillated. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [43] - **Zinc**: Last week, early - locked zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and domestic inventory has room to decline while LME inventory is rising. This week, roll in short LME zinc, long SHFE zinc [52] - **Lead**: Last week, domestic lead inventory may accumulate, LME lead inventory decreased, and the import window opened. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [53] - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window opened, the balance ratio dropped, and inventories were relatively high. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [58] - **Tin**: Last week, the domestic - foreign price ratio rebounded, the import window was closed, and the import loss was 14,018 yuan/ton. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [65] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the price difference oscillated narrowly with no obvious driver. This week, observation is recommended [70] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price difference oscillated. This week, due to stable Middle - East crude oil spot, falling freight, and uncertain Russian supply, observation is recommended [74] Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit oscillated at the bottom, and US soybeans declined weakly. This week, short - term observation is recommended [80] - **Sugar**: Last week, both domestic and foreign markets rebounded from low levels, and the price difference oscillated narrowly. This week, short - term observation is recommended [83] - **Natural Gas (20 - rubber)**: Last week, the price difference was in a no - arbitrage state, and supply may increase without a demand surge. This week, observation is recommended [88] Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the market digested the Fed's hawkish stance, and the price difference may rise. This week, arbitrage is on hold [94] - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the EFS oscillated. This week, due to stable Middle - East crude oil spot and US production resilience, observation is recommended [99] - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the price difference oscillated. This week, with high US refinery operation and stable US production, the price difference driver is limited, so observation is recommended [105] - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Last week, the price difference oscillated and rebounded weakly. This week, due to large holiday fluctuations, temporary exit for observation is recommended. After the holiday, pay attention to the opportunity of price difference narrowing [110]

资金面继续保持宽松；债市延续暖意 【内容摘要】12 月 19 日，资金面继续保持宽松；受 LPR 降息预期提振，债市延续暖意；转债 市场跟随权益市场延续上行，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济 体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【国常会：对贯彻落实中央经济工作会议决策部署作出安排】国务院总理李强 12 月 19 日主 持召开国务院常务会议，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上的重要讲话精神， 对贯彻落实中央经济工作会议决策部署作出安排。会议强调，国务院各部门要切实把思想和行 动统一到党中央对形势的科学判断和决策部署上来，全面贯彻明年经济工作的总体要求和政 策取向，进一步增强责任感、紧迫感，认真对标对表，主动认领任务，结合职能逐项细化实化， 加快制定具体实施方案，推动各项工作落地见效。对涉及面广、综合性强的重要任务，牵头部 门要主动担当，相关部门要密切配合，加强跨部门协同攻坚，形成促发展的合力。要靠前发力 抓落实，以扎实有效的工作不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步。 【沪深交易所联合中国结算发布通知，支持境外机构投资者开展债券 ...

高盛发布最新预测称，其基准情景下黄金价格到2026年12月将上涨14%至每盎司4900美元，且该预测存 在上行风险[1]。 来源：喜娜AI 一、贵金属期货 市场方面，12月19日纽约期金价格持续走高，先后突破4380美元/盎司（日内涨0.14%）、4390美元/盎 司（日内涨0.37%），最终突破4400美元/盎司，日内涨幅达0.60%[2][3][4]；现货黄金同步上涨，依次突 破4350美元/盎司（日内涨0.29%）、4360美元/盎司（日内涨0.55%），并进一步升至4370美元/盎司，日 内涨幅0.74%[5][6][7]。 不过此前一日（12月18日），贵金属价格曾出现回调，纽约期金失守4340美元/盎司（日内跌0.78%）， 现货黄金失守4310美元/盎司（日内跌0.65%）[8][9]；白银表现更弱，纽约期银失守65美元/盎司，日内 跌2.85%，现货白银同步失守65美元/盎司，日内跌1.84%[10][11]。 二、基本金属期货 高盛在最新报告中重申，2035年铜价将达到15,000美元/吨，并持续推荐做多铜、做空铝的交易策略 （2027年12月到期合约）[12]。 此外，高盛预测到2026年 ...

【内容摘要】12月16日，虽然适逢税期，但资金面仍偏宽松；市场情绪有所修复，债市小幅回暖；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限 美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【前11个月全国城镇新增就业1210万人】据人力资源和社会保障部12月16日消息，1-11月，全国城镇新增就业1210万人，城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%。人 力资源和社会保障部就业促进司有关负责人表示，下一步，将实施稳岗扩容提质行动，全力以赴稳定就业大局；聚焦就业重点群体，精准施策稳定和扩大就 业；强化职业技能培训，更好提升劳动者就业能力；优化就业公共服务，更好促进人岗高效匹配。 【中央财办：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务】据新华社，中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神指出，扩大内需是明年排在首位的 重点任务，要从供需两侧发力提振消费，统筹提振消费和扩大投资。明年要从供需两端发力稳定房地产市场。供给端要严控增量、盘活存量，加快消化库 存。需求端要采取更多针对性措施，充分释放居民刚性和改善性需求。展望明年，活跃的要素流动和创新为发展持续注入新动能，人流、物流 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc is rated as "Potential" with a strategy of "Long SHFE, Short LME" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the forex market, the overall monetary policy will remain accommodative due to the persistently weak labor market. The USD index is expected to range between 95 - 102 in 2026, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend with a range of 6.8 - 7.2, indicating limited depreciation space and opportunities for appreciation [6] - For zinc, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, domestic inventory pressure has eased, and LME zinc inventory is gradually increasing. It is recommended to roll - participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the internal - external price difference of gold fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference also fluctuated. This week, the gold price is expected to rise oscillatingly, the internal - external price difference valuation is neutral, and there is a lack of short - term drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Silver**: Last week, the internal - external price difference of silver fell and then rebounded, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference oscillated and declined. This week, the short - squeeze trading of silver has eased, the risk of high - level price fluctuations has increased, and there is a lack of price difference drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [19] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, LME copper inventory increased, and the copper import window remained in a loss state. The cross - market strategy is recommended to wait and see [25] - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingots started to accumulate, LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, and the short - term internal - external ratio oscillated within a range. Cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [30] - **Zinc**: Currently, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, domestic zinc ingot social inventory is decreasing, and LME zinc inventory is rising. It is recommended to roll - participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [36] - **Lead**: Last week, many domestic primary and secondary lead smelters were under maintenance, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises remained high, domestic lead ingot social inventory remained low, LME lead inventory accumulated again, and the domestic lead ingot import window opened. Cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [42] - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window was closed, the price difference extreme situation improved significantly, and cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [48] - **Tin**: Last week, the internal - external ratio of tin increased, the tin spot import window remained closed, the import loss was 15,206 yuan/ton, and the driving force for the tin price difference was not obvious. Cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [52] 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the internal - external price difference of iron ore oscillated within a narrow range without obvious drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [56] 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price difference oscillated. Due to the stability of Middle - East crude oil spot, high - volatility freight, and uncertainty in Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see [60] - **Natural Gas**: Last week, the price difference (TFU - HH) rebounded slightly. The cold - wave trading ended, US production continued to rise, exports temporarily declined, and prices fell back; import costs supported European gas prices to stop falling. In the future, the US temperature is expected to be warmer, and the US dry gas production has reached a high level. The European price is approaching the import cost, and the bottom is strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of price difference narrowing after the rebound [95] 3.5 Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit oscillated at the bottom. Due to the slow progress of Chinese purchases, US soybeans showed a weak downward trend, which promoted the further recovery of profit levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [66] - **Sugar**: Last week, the internal - external price difference increased slightly. As the year - end approached, the marginal import volume decreased, and the driving force for the convergence of the internal - external price difference was weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [69] - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there was little change, and the price difference remained in the non - arbitrage range. Globally, it is gradually entering the tapping season, with an expected increase in supply, but no improvement on the demand side. It is recommended to wait and see [78] 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the negative impact of the Fed's hawkish stance in December has been digested by the market. With the upcoming change of the Fed chairman and the strengthening of gold and silver prices, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper may rise. The market also expects a high probability of the US imposing tariffs on copper, so the downward space of the price difference is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [79] - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS oscillated. Due to the weak operation of Middle - East crude oil spot, the resilience of US production, and limited short - term guidance, it is recommended to wait and see [84] - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent price difference oscillated. With the US refinery operating rate returning to a high level, the pressure of refined oil inventory increasing year - on - year, and stable crude oil production, the price difference driver is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [90] - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: As mentioned above, after the cold - wave trading ended, the price difference rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of price difference narrowing after the rebound [95]