点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 今 日 聚 焦 【基础化工】美伊冲突升级，化工板块投资机遇解析——基础化工行业跟踪点评 美东时间2月27日深夜至2月28日（伊朗时间2月28日上午），美军与以军联合对伊朗发动代号为"史诗怒火"的 大规模空袭与导弹打击，目标涵盖了伊朗的导弹体系、重要军工与海军设施乃至最高权力中枢，伊朗随即以大 规模导弹和无人机袭击予以回击，地区局势在短短数小时内从"高度紧绷"滑向公开战争。 （赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪）2026-03-02 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【电新】欧洲天然气价格大涨，有望驱动户储需求提升——碳中和领域动态追踪（一百七十七） 3月2日，欧洲Dutch TTF天然气期货价格大幅上涨39%。在能源大宗价格大幅上涨的情况下，户储板块全 面受益。接下来需要重点跟踪欧洲Dutch TTF天然气期货价格以及各厂商的接单排产情况。 （殷中枢/和霖） 2026-03-03 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查 看 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使 ...

国际油价在周一亚洲交易时段盘中一度飙升超12%。此后，在美国交易时段中，国际油价涨幅有所收窄。欧洲能源市场方面，荷兰 TTF天然气主力合约价格周一盘中一度涨超50%。 2日美国三大股指涨跌不一 当地时间周一，中东局势骤然升级引发全球金融市场避险情绪升温，风险资产普遍承压，美股" 恐慌指数" VIX 飙升至去年11月以来 新高，美国三大股指集体低开。因担忧能源价格上涨引发高通胀，进而阻碍美联储再次降息，消费、旅游休闲以及航空等 类别 股票 普 遍下跌。不过，在国防军 工、科技股 上涨 的推动下， 美国三大股指有所反弹，收盘时涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指下跌0.15%， 标普500指数微涨0.04%，纳指上涨0.36%。 2日伯克希尔-哈撒韦A类股股价大跌4.89% 个股方面，知名投资人巴菲特旗下伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司上周六公布的2025财年第四季度财报显示，受保险承保等业务拖累，公司当 季经营利润同比下滑近30%。此外，公司2025财年全年的投资收益也显著低于上一财年。受此影响，伯克希尔-哈撒韦A类股股价周 一大幅收跌4.89%。 2日欧洲三大股指全线收跌 欧洲方面，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡航道引发投资者对能源供应紧缺的 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/3/1 How the U.S.-Iran Conflict Affects the Futures Market 美伊冲突如何影响期货市场？ | 陈冬科 | Chen Dongke | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03124206 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0023470 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 朱善颖 Zhu Shanying | | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03138401 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021426 | | 李云旭 Li Yunxu | | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03141405 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: ...

【芝商所技术故障致天然气与金属期货交易中断 ，周三委托单全数取消】这是CME约一个月内第二次系统性交易中断，周三恰逢3月天然气期货合约到期 日。市场人士称，在市场收盘前出现"冻结"是"极糟糕的时机"，"所有以期货作为定价和对冲工具的参与者都受到了影响"。详见 | DATE/TIME | ISSUE | STATUS | MESSAGE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-02-25 12:40 CT | CME Globex Natural Gas | Update | CME Globex Natural Gas futures and options markets will Pre-open at 12:45 | | | Futures and Options Markets | | and Open at 12:50 Central Time. | | | Opening | | | | | | | All day orders and GTDs with today's date will be cancelled. All GTCs that h | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Sugar: On hold [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2026, with the USD index expected to range between 95 - 102. The RMB may show a stable upward trend with limited depreciation space [7]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on their respective market conditions, such as long LME copper and short SHFE copper for copper futures, and long LME zinc and short SHFE zinc for zinc futures. For most other commodities, a wait - and - see approach is suggested [4][6][37][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference and overseas price difference fluctuated. This week, due to the neutral valuation of the domestic - international price difference and the high - level volatility of the RMB exchange rate, it's recommended to hold off on cross - market arbitrage [13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference first rose and then fell, and the overseas price difference declined. This week, as the domestic - international price difference has returned to a neutral level and the tightness of overseas silver spot has marginally eased, the strategy of shorting the domestic - international price difference should be exited [19]. - **Platinum**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the previous high - premium situation in the domestic market was rectified. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [25]. - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the high - premium state was rectified. This week, cross - border arbitrage should be put on hold [31]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, the LME cancellation warrant ratio was high, the overseas squeeze risk remained, and the import profit of forward contracts was unlocked. This week, it's recommended to focus on taking a long position in LME copper and a short position in SHFE copper in forward contracts [37]. - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to accumulate, while overseas inventories decreased. In the short term, the exchange ratio fluctuated within a range. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [42]. - **Zinc**: Last week, zinc ingot exports gradually decreased, the accumulation speed of LME zinc inventory slowed down, and domestic zinc ingot inventory seasonally accumulated. This week, it's recommended to focus on going long on LME zinc and shorting SHFE zinc [51]. - **Lead**: Last week, LME lead inventory significantly accumulated again, and the domestic lead ingot import window closed. This week, cross - market arbitrage of lead ingots should be put on hold [52]. - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window closed, the nickel balance ratio fluctuated, and domestic and foreign inventories remained at relatively high levels. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [59]. - **Tin**: Last week, the short - term tin balance ratio fluctuated, the inventories of Shanghai tin and LME tin both increased, and the domestic - international price difference was not significant. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [63]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant driving factors. This week, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [67]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent spread fluctuated and rebounded. This week, due to the stability of Middle - East crude oil spot, the large fluctuation of freight rates, and the potential geopolitical risks, it's recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Natural Gas**: Last week, the TFU - HH spread fluctuated widely. This week, it's recommended to reduce positions or exit. In the short term, the trading of overseas gas prices mainly depends on the weather, and in the medium term, the fundamentals may tighten in the US and loosen in Europe, which is negative for the TFU - HH spread [104]. 3.5 Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the soybean crushing profit fluctuated weakly. The US soybean price was strong due to optimistic export expectations, while the domestic market sentiment was weak after the pre - holiday stockpiling ended. This week, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [73]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the domestic - international sugar price difference was at a historically high level and continued to widen. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [78]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there were no major changes, and the price spread was within the non - arbitrage range. With the approaching of the global rubber tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [82]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates decreased, putting pressure on the copper price spread between COMEX and LME. However, the expectation of US copper tariffs limited the downward space. This week, arbitrage between COMEX and LME copper should be put on hold [89]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS fluctuated. This week, as the OPEC+ April production policy is undetermined and the Middle - East geopolitical situation is tense, it's recommended to wait and see [94]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent spread narrowed. This week, although the US refined oil inventory is decreasing, the strengthening of oil freight rates has widened the cross - regional spread, and its sustainability needs further observation. It's recommended to wait and see [100]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: See the content under the "Energy" section [104].

据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月22日，一场大规模冬季风暴正威胁着美国东北部地区，预计将带来数英尺厚的积雪。康涅狄格州、特拉华州、新泽西州和 罗得岛州目前均已发布暴雪警报。 航班追踪网站FlightAware的数据显示，自22日起，美国境内、进出境的航班将有约7500架次被取消。 图：今年1月纽约商品交易所天然气期货区间涨幅超100% 2月初，美国东南部再次遭到一场冬季风暴，寒冷天气和极寒预警影响约1.5亿人，大量航班取消。北卡罗来纳州遇"炸弹气旋"，给多地带来创纪录级别降 雪。有"阳光之州"之称的佛罗里达州现"天降蜥蜴"奇观：不少僵硬的蜥蜴直挺挺地从树上落下。 由于航班取消和延误，美国国会众议院和参议院均将本周的首轮投票推迟至24日。一位共和党消息人士表示，众议院将比原计划晚一天返回国会大厦。参 议院共和党党鞭约翰·巴拉索的办公室当日晚间表示，参议院也将推迟其首轮投票。 今年1月，美国就已经遭到过一轮冬季风暴的侵袭。据报道，该风暴席卷美国大部分地区，一度导致超百万的用户断电，风暴及严寒下，24个州和华盛顿 特区进入紧急状态，数百人死亡。据了解，死者中约一半来自南部的田纳西州、密西西比州和路易斯安那州，死亡原因为 ...

每经编辑｜许绍航 宋思艰 据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月22日，一场大规模冬季风暴正威胁着美国东北部地区，预计将带来数英尺厚的积雪。康涅狄格州、特拉华州、新泽西州和 罗得岛州目前均已发布暴雪警报。 截至22日下午，共有3182架次航班被取消，23日则将有4327架次航班被取消。纽约、波士顿和费城的机场受影响最为严重。预计风暴将在夜间达到顶峰， 未来48小时内将严重影响航空交通。 由于航班取消和延误，美国国会众议院和参议院均将本周的首轮投票推迟至24日。一位共和党消息人士表示，众议院将比原计划晚一天返回国会大厦。参 议院共和党党鞭约翰·巴拉索的办公室当日晚间表示，参议院也将推迟其首轮投票。 今年1月，美国就已经遭到过一轮冬季风暴的侵袭。据报道，该风暴席卷美国大部分地区，一度导致超百万的用户断电，风暴及严寒下，24个州和华盛顿 特区进入紧急状态，数百人死亡。据了解，死者中约一半来自南部的田纳西州、密西西比州和路易斯安那州，死亡原因为车祸、低温等。 航班追踪网站FlightAware的数据显示，自22日起，美国境内、进出境的航班将有约7500架次被取消。 △美国机场（资料图），来源：央视新闻 图：今年1月纽约商品交易 ...

1. WTI原油 期货成交量为1419932手，较上个交易日增加23446手。未平仓合约为2078425手，较上个交 易日减少9068手。2. 布伦特原油期货成交量为240727手，较上个交易日减少32703手。未平仓合约为 269068手，较上个交易日减少3865手。3. 天然气期货成交量为515301手，较上个交易日减少137862手。 未平仓合约为1609110手，较上个交易日减少4446手。 ...

1. WTI原油 期货成交量为1396486手，较上个交易日增加566240手。未平仓合约为2094396手，较上个 交易日增加9924手。2. 布伦特原油期货成交量为273430手，较上个交易日增加132981手。未平仓合约为 273112手，较上个交易日增加2692手。3. 天然气期货成交量为653163手，较上个交易日增加236593手。 未平仓合约为1613746手，较上个交易日增加17096手。 ...

Core Insights - The global commodity market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical easing, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances [15][23]. Market Overview - The overall market is in a fluctuating but strong trend, with the strongest sectors being crude oil, feed, non-ferrous metals, grains, and new energy [22][23]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw a rise of nearly 30% and 70% in January, respectively, before a sharp decline due to selling pressure following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman [20]. Trading Strategies - Key trading commodities include live pigs, fuel, and soybeans, with a focus on maintaining a cautious approach and locking in profits through phased selling strategies [24][25]. - The strategy for live pigs involved a trend-following short position, achieving an 11% profit before gradually reducing exposure [25][26]. Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar is supporting commodity prices, while geopolitical tensions are affecting energy supply chains [23]. - The end of the supercycle is putting pressure on exporting countries' finances, but it provides some relief for global inflation [21].