Group 1 - The People's Bank of China is expected to release financial statistics for September, including M2 growth, new RMB loans, and social financing scale, with M2 expected to grow by 8.5% year-on-year, down from 8.8% [1] - New RMB loans for September are anticipated to be 1.375 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 590 billion yuan [1] - The expected increase in social financing scale for September is 3.45 trillion yuan, compared to 2.5668 trillion yuan in the previous month [1] Group 2 - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) is set to publish a global metal supply and demand report, which will be closely monitored for its impact on metal futures prices [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, with attention on how the results may influence related futures prices [3] Group 4 - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to announce September retail sales data, with a month-on-month increase forecasted at 0.4%, down from 0.6% [4] - Core retail sales for September are projected to rise by 0.3%, a decrease from the previous 0.7% [4] - A slight decline in retail sales data could moderately suppress the prices of commodities, excluding gold and silver [4] Group 5 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report on crude oil inventory changes for the week ending October 10, with the previous increase recorded at 3.715 million barrels [5] - An increase in crude oil inventory could hinder the rise in oil and related commodity futures prices [5] Group 6 - The U.S. Department of Commerce will release data on new housing starts and building permits for September, with new housing starts expected to total 1.31 million units, slightly up from 1.307 million units [6] - Building permits are anticipated to be 1.343 million units, an increase from the previous 1.33 million units [6] - A slight increase in new housing starts and building permits could support basic metal futures prices but may suppress gold and silver futures prices [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on September 16, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows data on the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each sector, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8]. II. Stock Index Plate - On September 16, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 869.549 billion yuan, a +21.91% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1384.757 billion yuan, a +5.50% change; the trading - holding ratio was 62.40% [1]. - There are also data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][11][13]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - On September 16, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 574.17 billion yuan, a +56.80% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 767.467 billion yuan, a +4.46% change; the trading - holding ratio was 76.10% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18][23][22]. IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On September 16, 2025, the basic metals plate had a trading volume of 396.256 billion yuan, a +23.43% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 523.156 billion yuan, a - 0.65% change; the trading - holding ratio was 92.22%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 411.974 billion yuan, a +22.96% change; the holding amount was 512.779 billion yuan, a +1.64% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.16% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [32][21][22]. V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On September 16, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 429.819 billion yuan, a +2.24% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 431.891 billion yuan, a - 1.40% change; the trading - holding ratio was 88.26% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [36][27][28]. VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On September 16, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 306.461 billion yuan, a - 11.36% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 559.628 billion yuan, a +1.77% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.84% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][42][35]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On September 16, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 383.711 billion yuan, a +24.29% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 388.441 billion yuan, a +1.89% change; the trading - holding ratio was 95.71% [2]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content in the provided documents. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint On June 26, 2025, equity index futures declined, while 30 - year CGB rose; metal futures trended strongly, and agricultural product futures fell. The top three gainers were coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal, and the top three decliners were rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview On June 26, equity index futures declined, 30 - year CGB rose, metal futures were strong, and agricultural product futures fell. Coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal were the top gainers, with coking coal rising 3.6% and positions increasing 7.7% month - on - month, poly - silicon rising 3.5% and positions decreasing 3.7% month - on - month, and silicon metal rising 2.7% and positions increasing 4.8% month - on - month. Rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean were the top decliners, with rapeseed meal falling 2.7% and positions increasing 8.9% month - on - month, soybean meal falling 2.4% and positions decreasing 0.8% month - on - month, and No.2 Soybean falling 1.6% and positions decreasing 12.0% month - on - month [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise - **Silicon Metal**: On June 26, it increased by 2.7% to 7720 yuan/ton. There was news of a furnace shutdown at an enterprise, but the supply - demand contradiction remained unrelieved, keeping silicon prices under pressure. On the supply side, northern large - scale manufacturers resumed production, and southwest China entered the wet season with reduced electricity prices and new capacity launches. On the demand side, downstream demand was weak, with polysilicon producers cutting output. Social inventories continued to accumulate, but futures prices made the market more cost - effective, and warehouse receipt inventory was liquidated faster, supporting near - month contracts [16][17][18]. - **TSR20**: On June 26, it increased by 2.6% to 12145 yuan/ton, and natural rubber increased by 2.1% to 14040 yuan/ton. External shocks subsided, and prices may follow overall commodity volatility. The trading focus may return to fundamentals, but rubber's fundamentals had limited short - term variables. Supply was affected by the rainy season, and demand was relatively stable in the short - term but weak in expectation. In the third quarter, de - stocking trades may prevent a deep decline [23][24][25]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Rapeseed Meal**: On June 26, it decreased by 2.7% to 2550 yuan/ton, and soybean meal decreased by 2.4% to 2936 yuan/ton. Domestically, soybean meal had both supply and demand growth, while rapeseed meal faced weakening in both. In the short - to - medium term, soybean arrivals were expected to increase, oil mill operating rates would remain high, and soybean meal inventories were rising seasonally. In the long term, breeding sow inventory growth indicated stable and increasing rigid demand for soybean meal, and there were expected supply gaps in the fourth quarter [31][32][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News The Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports to the EU and will strengthen approval work. The NDRC will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in program in July and will launch and intensify the implementation of the equipment renewal loan interest discount policy [38]. 3.2.2 Industry News The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government issued the "Hong Kong Policy Declaration on Digital Asset Development 2.0". The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to list offset printing paper futures and options [39][40].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/05/28 Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观方面：1—4 月份全国规模以上工业企业利润总额同比增长 1.4%。 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 A ...

Group 1: Futures Market Overview - The article provides updated basis data for various domestic futures as of April 14, highlighting the current spot prices, futures prices, and basis values across different commodities [1][2][4][6][8]. - Notable commodities include stainless steel with a basis of 1045 Yuan/ton (7.5%), coking coal at 344.5 Yuan/ton (27.6%), and iron ore at 20 Yuan/ton (7.7%) [2][4]. Group 2: Agricultural Futures - Agricultural futures show varied performance, with cotton priced at 14,293 Yuan/ton and a basis of -1,303 Yuan/ton (9.1%), while live pigs are at 14,870 Yuan/ton with a basis of 400 Yuan/ton (2.7%) [4][5]. - The price of eggs is reported at 3,403.8 Yuan/500g, with a basis of 264.8 Yuan (7.8%) [4]. Group 3: Energy and Chemical Futures - Energy and chemical futures indicate significant basis values, with pulp at -960 Yuan/ton (15.1%) and PX at 788 Yuan/ton (11.6%) [6][7]. - LPG is priced at 5,200 Yuan/ton with a basis of 713 Yuan/ton (13.7%) [6]. Group 4: Financial Futures - Financial futures data shows the Shanghai Composite Index futures (IH) at 2,628.21 points with a basis of -21.61 points (-0.8%) [8]. - The CSI 300 index futures are at 3,759.14 points with a basis of -64.34 points (-1.7%) [8].