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棉花(纱)市场周报-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 09:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 decreased by about 1.0% this week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Attention should be paid to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory. Internationally, the US cotton export signing and shipment volumes decreased significantly. Domestically, the inventory remains low, the market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and the spinning mills' startup rate remains low. [6][7][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Wait and see for the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract in the short - term [6] - Future trading tips: Monitor foreign cotton price changes, demand, and inventory [7] - Market review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 decreased by about 1.0% this week [7] - Market outlook: Internationally, the US cotton export signing and shipment volumes decreased significantly. Domestically, the inventory is low, the market supply is tight, downstream orders increased slightly, and the spinning mills' startup rate remains low [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 US Cotton Market - The price of the US Cotton December contract increased by about 0.75% this week. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,472 lots, an increase of 3,012 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 118,684 lots, an increase of 13,618 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 48,212 lots, an increase of 10,606 lots from the previous week [11] 3.2.2 Foreign Cotton Spot Market - As of September 4, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 129,600 bales, a 47% decrease from the previous week and a 33% decrease from the average of the previous 4 weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 77.85 cents per pound, a 0.35 - cent increase from last week [16] 3.2.3 Futures Market - The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 1.0% this week, and the price of the Cotton Yarn Futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.60%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 29,297 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 288 lots. The number of cotton futures warrants at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 5,017, and that of cotton yarn futures was 90 [21][27][33] 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price index of Cotton 3128B was 15,248 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese Cotton Yarn C32S was 20,745 yuan per ton. The CY index for OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton, and for OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,880 yuan per ton [41][52] 3.2.5 Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of September 11, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 14,176 yuan per ton, a 48 - yuan increase from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 13,319 yuan per ton, a 70 - yuan increase from last week. The price indices of imported cotton yarn (FCY Index) for port pick - up prices of C21S, C32S, and JC32S were 20,180 yuan per ton, 21,235 yuan per ton, and 23,080 yuan per ton respectively [56] 3.2.6 Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit - As of September 11, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 1,110 yuan per ton, a 227 - yuan decrease from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,967 yuan per ton, a 249 - yuan decrease from last week [59] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. As of July 31, the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a 1.85% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a 66.67% increase from the previous month. As of July, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month [62][69] 3.3.2 Mid - end Industry - In July, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.67 days, a 2.43% decrease from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a 2.95% decrease from the previous month [72] 3.3.3 Terminal Consumption - In July 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 11,604.009 million US dollars, a 3.69% decrease from the previous month. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 15,161.759 million US dollars, a 0.69% decrease from the previous month. As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 837.1 billion yuan, a 12.73% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth was 2.9%, a 6.45% decrease from the previous month [78][82] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - related Market - No specific analysis content provided for the options market, only mentioned the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week. For the stock market, only the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was presented [83][86]
期货市场护航粮油企业破浪前行
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-25 17:41
Group 1 - The futures market plays an increasingly important role in serving the real economy and managing price risks, with the Dalian Commodity Exchange's "Enterprise Risk Management Plan" successfully assisting hundreds of companies in their initial engagement with futures tools [1] - Companies like Fuxi Grain and Oil have transitioned from initial trials to regular application of futures tools, marking a significant step in their risk management strategies [1][4] - The plan provides a valuable "testing ground" for enterprises to learn and implement futures trading, enhancing their understanding and capabilities in risk management [1][4] Group 2 - Fuxi Grain and Oil, located in Inner Mongolia, faced significant price volatility in raw material procurement and product sales, prompting them to explore futures trading for risk management [2][3] - The company initially had limited knowledge of futures trading but began participating in the Enterprise Risk Management Plan in 2022, which allowed them to hedge against price fluctuations effectively [2][3] - By utilizing futures contracts for soybean procurement, Fuxi Grain and Oil managed to lock in prices and improve capital efficiency, resulting in a risk management gain of 58,790 yuan [3] Group 3 - Beijing Jingliang Biological Technology Group, a subsidiary of Beijing Shou Nong Food Group, also faced challenges with raw material cost fluctuations and sought to enhance its risk management through the Enterprise Risk Management Plan [5][6] - The company successfully executed its first futures transaction for corn starch, effectively hedging against price declines and establishing a dedicated team for futures operations [6] - Over the past two years, Jingliang Biological has accumulated a hedging scale exceeding 100,000 tons, demonstrating the effectiveness of the plan in expanding their risk management capabilities [6][8] Group 4 - Futures companies like Guotou Futures and CITIC Futures play a crucial role as "guides" for industry clients, helping them navigate the futures market through the Enterprise Risk Management Plan [8][9] - These firms emphasize "accompaniment-style growth," providing ongoing support and training to enhance clients' understanding and use of futures and options [9][10] - The plan targets a diverse range of enterprises, from large corporations to small businesses, facilitating their entry into futures trading and reducing trial-and-error costs [10] Group 5 - The successful experiences of companies like Fuxi Grain and Oil and Jingliang Biological highlight the expanding role of the futures market in supporting the real economy, with expectations for further growth in participation and application of futures tools [11]