1. Overall Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and may fall further, with potential support at 4000 - 4100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures are also under pressure, expected to test 8500 - 8600 yuan for support. Overall, a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [1]. - Soybean oil: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The overall supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, but due to factors such as high Brazilian soybean prices and potential factory shutdowns, the spot basis quote has limited short - term fluctuation space [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: Currently, the supply is abundant, and the price is in a downward channel. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the new - season cost price of 2050 yuan. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance pattern with policy support [2]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2601 has increased slightly, and the market situation is affected by the corn market [2]. 2.3 Meal Products - Meal products: The expectation of China purchasing US soybeans has increased, and the domestic cost support remains. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and poor crushing margins, the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - Live pigs: The market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. There may be short - term support from secondary fattening, but there will be increased supply pressure in November and December, and the futures market is following the spot market down [7]. 2.5 Sugar - Sugar: The expected increase in supply surplus and weak energy prices have led to a weakening of raw sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are also under pressure but have cost support at around 5400 yuan, and the market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [10]. 2.6 Cotton - Cotton: The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [12]. 2.7 Eggs - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually rise, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8400 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8128 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.49%); the basis was 272 yuan, up 40 yuan (17.24%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Guangdong was 8700 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.57%); the futures price of P2601 was 8764 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 0.72%); the basis was - 64 yuan, up 14 yuan (17.95%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.51%); the futures price of O1601 was 9422 yuan, down 107 yuan (- 1.12%); the basis was 328 yuan, up 57 yuan (21.03%) [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On November 3, the flat - hatch price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port was 2130 yuan, up 19 yuan (0.90%); the basis was 0 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 100.00%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 97 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.90%) [2]. - **Corn starch**: On November 3, the price of corn starch 2601 was 2440 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.87%); the basis was 70 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 23.08%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.70%) [2]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3020 yuan, up 50 yuan (1.68%); the futures price of M2601 was 3021 yuan, up 27 yuan (0.90%); the basis was - 1 yuan, up 23 yuan (95.83%) [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.40%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2388 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 82 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.80%) [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of live pigs 2605 was 11895 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of live pigs 2601 was 11815 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.55%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 300.00%) [7]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with the price in Henan at 12500 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price in Shandong at 12550 yuan, unchanged; etc [7]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of sugar 2601 was 5483 yuan, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5413 yuan, up 6 yuan (0.11%); the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan, up 5 yuan (7.69%) [10]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); the Nanning basis was 337 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 1.75%); the Kunming basis was 297 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 5.11%) [10]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of cotton 2605 was 13605 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13595 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 5 - 1 spread was 10 yuan, unchanged [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14674 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.11%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14860 yuan, up 17 yuan (0.11%); the 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1069 yuan, up 21 yuan (2.00%) [12]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3146 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 0.35%); the price of the egg 01 - contract was 3318 yuan, down 35 yuan (- 1.04%); the basis was - 203 yuan, up 21 yuan (9.39%); the 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, up 24 yuan (12.24%) [14]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.80 yuan, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled hen price was 4.11 yuan, down 0.18 yuan (- 4.20%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.35, up 0.04 (1.73%); the breeding profit was - 26.10 yuan, up 2.61 yuan (9.09%) [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to remain weakly volatile, with a chance of a short - term rebound in the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range. Dalian palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish, and the 1 - month contract of Dalian soybean oil may test the 8000 - yuan support and may break it [1]. Meal Products - Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, the cost - side support is strengthening. The trend of domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish as it is difficult to source cheap soybeans in the near term [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and the market supply is relatively loose. Pig prices have weakened from a strong position. In the short term, prices may not fall significantly, but there will be an increase in the number of pigs for sale in November and December, and risks should be monitored around the Winter Solstice [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and raw sugar prices will remain weakly volatile. Domestic sugar prices have limited downward momentum as they approach the production cost, and the current bottom - shock pattern may continue [9]. Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' demand for cotton is resilient, and the rising cost of new cotton provides support. However, cotton prices may face hedging pressure, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. Corn - Due to sufficient grain sources in the Northeast and the behavior of farmers in North China, the overall corn price is stable with limited upside. With the supply pressure remaining, the futures market will maintain a low - level shock in the short term [11]. Eggs - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize, with overall pressure [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8400 yuan, the Y2601 futures price is 8168 yuan, and the basis is 232 yuan. The market is affected by the outcome of the Sino - US summit, and there is a risk of the 1 - month contract testing the 8000 - yuan support [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan. The BMD crude palm oil futures are weakly volatile, and Dalian palm oil may follow the downward trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan, and the OI601 futures price is 9529 yuan [1]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2970 yuan, the M2601 futures price is 2994 yuan, and the basis is - 24 yuan. The cost - side support is strengthening, and the trend is expected to be bullish [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan, the RM2601 futures price is 2401 yuan, and the basis is 79 yuan [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans is 3900 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 1 is 4103 yuan, and the basis is - 203 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3940 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 2 is 3704 yuan, and the basis is 236 yuan [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 11900 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 11880 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan and other regions have different degrees of decline or stability [4]. Sugar - **Futures**: The 2601 contract price is 5472 yuan/ton, the 2605 contract price is 5407 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.25 cents/lb [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning is 5720 yuan/ton, and the basis is 343 yuan [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 13610 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 13600 yuan/ton, and the ICE US cotton main contract is 65.09 cents/lb [10]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 14658 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B is 14843 yuan/ton [10]. Corn - **Corn**: The 2601 contract price is 2111 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2120 yuan/ton, and the basis is 9 yuan [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2601 contract price is 2419 yuan/ton, the Changchun spot price is not provided, and the Weifang spot price is 2750 yuan/ton [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The December contract price is 3157 yuan/500KG, the January contract price is 3353 yuan/500KG, and the 12 - 01 spread is - 196 yuan [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price is 2.93 yuan/T, and the basis is - 224 yuan/500KG [16].

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13620, 13625, and 13780 respectively, with a rise of 55 each; CY01 and CY05 contracts closed at 19865 and 19775, up 100 and 25 respectively, while CY09 remained at 0 [2]. - The trading volume of CF01 contract was 185,465 hands, an increase of 63550, and the open - interest was 578,488, a decrease of 596 [2]. - CCIndex3128B price was 14840 yuan/ton, up 7; Cot A was 75.95 cents/pound [2]. - The 1 - month to 5 - month spread of cotton was - 5, unchanged; the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of棉纱 was 90, up 75 [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - On October 29, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1803 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat, and it's expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - As of October 27, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 82.8%, with different progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang, and the picking is expected to end soon [4]. - In July 2025, the EU's clothing import value was $20.269 billion, up 18.6% year - on - year and 22.45% month - on - month [5]. - The supply - side acquisition is at its peak with stable prices around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the demand - side changes little. After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Cotton Yarn Industry - The Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated at night, with obvious hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market had a tepid transaction, with stable prices, weakening downstream demand, and small and urgent orders [11]. - The cotton grey fabric market was dull, with smooth sales at cost, large losses, and difficulty in order connection [11]. Group 3: Options - On October 28, 2025, the closing price of CF601C13400.CZC was 240, down 10.4%; the closing price of CF601P13000.CZC was 29, down 63.8%; the closing price of CF601P12400.CZC was 8, down 85.2% [13]. - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 8.0835, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.5%, 10%, and 13.5% respectively [13]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7379 for open - interest and 0.6827 for trading volume, and both call and put trading volumes decreased [14]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [15]. Group 4: Related Attachments - There are eight figures including the 1% tariff price difference between domestic and foreign cotton markets, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis of cotton, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1, CF5 - 9 spreads [16][20][26][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish strategy for cotton investment [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zhengzhou cotton continued its weak performance this week. New cotton listing is delayed, and downstream demand shows signs of weakening. With new cotton about to enter the market, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of September 18, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.8%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points from the four - year average. The national delivery rate was 15.8%, up 6 percentage points year - on - year and 7.1 percentage points from the four - year average [1] - **Import**: In August, China's cotton import volume was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. The棉纱 import volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: In August, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 104.5 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.74% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Textile and clothing export volume was $26.539 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1] - **Inventory**: As of September 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.038 million tons, a decrease of 336,000 tons from the end of August. Commercial inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons, and industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons [1] International Market - **US Supply**: As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind year - on - year and the same as the five - year average. The overall good and excellent rate of cotton plants was 47%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 10 percentage points [1] - **US Demand**: From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 25/26 - year - old upland cotton was 19,527 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 54% and a decrease of 54% compared with the four - week average. The shipment of upland cotton was 31,116 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14% and an increase of 6% compared with the four - week average. The net signing of Pima cotton was 1,928 tons, and the shipment was 1,179 tons. There were no new signings for 26/27 - year - old upland and Pima cotton this week [1] - **Southeast Asian Supply**: As of recently, India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from the same period last year. Some southern states had an increase in planting area, but due to rainfall, there are still differences in the market's prediction of India's new - year cotton output [1] - **Southeast Asian Demand**: In August, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was $3.86 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Bangladesh's clothing export volume was $3.17 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, India's clothing export volume was $1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In August, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was $1.524 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 9.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34% [4] Market Outlook - New cotton in Xinjiang may be concentrated on the market during the National Day. Downstream yarn mills maintain stable load and replenish raw materials as needed, but the overall operating rate of fabric mills has slightly decreased, and the off - take speed of finished products has slowed down. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase, but its market expansion faces challenges. Last week, the weekly export volume of US cotton decreased [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 decreased by about 1.0% this week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Attention should be paid to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory. Internationally, the US cotton export signing and shipment volumes decreased significantly. Domestically, the inventory remains low, the market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and the spinning mills' startup rate remains low. [6][7][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Wait and see for the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract in the short - term [6] - Future trading tips: Monitor foreign cotton price changes, demand, and inventory [7] - Market review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 decreased by about 1.0% this week [7] - Market outlook: Internationally, the US cotton export signing and shipment volumes decreased significantly. Domestically, the inventory is low, the market supply is tight, downstream orders increased slightly, and the spinning mills' startup rate remains low [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 US Cotton Market - The price of the US Cotton December contract increased by about 0.75% this week. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,472 lots, an increase of 3,012 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 118,684 lots, an increase of 13,618 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 48,212 lots, an increase of 10,606 lots from the previous week [11] 3.2.2 Foreign Cotton Spot Market - As of September 4, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 129,600 bales, a 47% decrease from the previous week and a 33% decrease from the average of the previous 4 weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 77.85 cents per pound, a 0.35 - cent increase from last week [16] 3.2.3 Futures Market - The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 1.0% this week, and the price of the Cotton Yarn Futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.60%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 29,297 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 288 lots. The number of cotton futures warrants at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 5,017, and that of cotton yarn futures was 90 [21][27][33] 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price index of Cotton 3128B was 15,248 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese Cotton Yarn C32S was 20,745 yuan per ton. The CY index for OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton, and for OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,880 yuan per ton [41][52] 3.2.5 Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of September 11, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 14,176 yuan per ton, a 48 - yuan increase from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 13,319 yuan per ton, a 70 - yuan increase from last week. The price indices of imported cotton yarn (FCY Index) for port pick - up prices of C21S, C32S, and JC32S were 20,180 yuan per ton, 21,235 yuan per ton, and 23,080 yuan per ton respectively [56] 3.2.6 Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit - As of September 11, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 1,110 yuan per ton, a 227 - yuan decrease from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,967 yuan per ton, a 249 - yuan decrease from last week [59] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. As of July 31, the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a 1.85% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a 66.67% increase from the previous month. As of July, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month [62][69] 3.3.2 Mid - end Industry - In July, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.67 days, a 2.43% decrease from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a 2.95% decrease from the previous month [72] 3.3.3 Terminal Consumption - In July 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 11,604.009 million US dollars, a 3.69% decrease from the previous month. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 15,161.759 million US dollars, a 0.69% decrease from the previous month. As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 837.1 billion yuan, a 12.73% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth was 2.9%, a 6.45% decrease from the previous month [78][82] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - related Market - No specific analysis content provided for the options market, only mentioned the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week. For the stock market, only the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was presented [83][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - sentiment was volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined with the market. Xinjiang's new cotton is entering the boll - splitting and boll - opening stage, and most cotton fields may spray defoliants from late August to mid - early September. The downstream is approaching the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, with the load of downstream yarn mills remaining stable and that of fabric mills slightly increasing, and finished products are being destocked, showing signs of the peak season, but the downstream market is generally cautious and current orders are still insufficient. Abroad, the US may further increase tariffs on Indian imports, and India has announced a suspension of about 11% import tariffs on cotton arriving at ports from August 19 to September 30. As of August 19, about 22% of the cotton - planting areas in the US are affected by drought, with the drought area in the central - southern cotton region expanding significantly. Brazil's new cotton picking progress was slow but has recently accelerated. In the short term, the rapid destocking of old cotton and the low - inventory situation still strongly support cotton prices. With the marginal improvement in downstream sales, the operation strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the continuous demand during the peak season and the opening price of new cotton purchases [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of August 14, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.9%, 5.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 8.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - **Import**: In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 150,000 tons from the same period last year; the yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a decrease of 20,000 tons from the same period last year; the cotton fabric import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a 29.16% increase from the previous month and a 10.57% decrease from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In July, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a 24.63% decrease from the previous month and a 1.80% increase from the same period last year; the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.766 billion US dollars, a 2.01% decrease from the previous month and a 0.06% decrease from the same period last year [1]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July. Among them, the commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons from the end of July, and the industrial inventory was 924,200 tons, an increase of 25,800 tons from the end of July [1]. 3.2 International Market 3.2.1 US Market - **Supply**: As of August 17, the budding rate of cotton in the US was 97%, 1 percentage point behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the average of the past five years; the boll - setting rate was 73%, 10 percentage points behind the same period last year and 7 percentage points behind the average of the past five years; the boll - opening rate was 13%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 3 percentage points behind the average of the past five years; the overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, 2 percentage points higher than the previous week and 13 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: From August 8 to 14, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 - season upland cotton was 23,904 tons, a significant 56% decrease from the previous week; the shipment volume of upland cotton was 27,964 tons, a 32% decrease from the previous week; the net signing volume of Pima cotton was 227 tons, and the shipment volume was 1,043 tons. There were no signings of 2026/2027 - season upland cotton and Pima cotton this week [1]. 3.2.2 Southeast Asian Market - **Supply**: As of August 15, the new - season cotton sown area in India reached 10.8 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.9% compared to the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an 8.7% increase from the previous month and a 5.3% increase from the same period last year; in June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a 28.87% decrease from the previous month and a 6.31% decrease from the same period last year; in July, India's clothing export volume was 1.340 billion US dollars, a 2.2% increase from the previous month and a 4.8% increase from the same period last year; in June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a 0.60% decrease from the previous month and a 7.59% increase from the same period last year [1]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Cotton Futures**: The closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 01 was 14,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan and a 0.64% decline; the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 05 was 13,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan and a 0.71% decline; the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan and a 0.54% decline [22][25]. - **Spot**: The price of CC Index 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan and a 0.18% increase; the price of CC Index 2227B was 13,341 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan and a 0.04% increase; the price of CC Index 2129B was 15,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan and a 0.27% increase [25]. - **Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [25]. - **Import Prices**: The price of FC Index M was 13,541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan and a 0.26% decline; the price of FCY Index C32s was 21,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan and a 0.11% decline [25]. - **Yarn**: The closing price of yarn futures was 20,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan and a 0.62% decline; the spot price of yarn was 20,720 yuan/ton, with no change [25].

Group 1: Report Summary - The weekly gain of Zhengzhou Cotton's main 2509 contract was about 1.1%, and the weekly gain of the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract was about 0.43% [6][19] - The USDA lowered the production and inventory estimates of US cotton, which had a bullish impact on cotton and narrowed the decline of US cotton [6] - The consumption off - season characteristics of the textile industry are evident, with poor new orders and some spinning mills having relatively high inventory, affecting raw material procurement [6] - Positive factors such as Sino - US trade talks and the USDA report support the short - term bullish oscillation of cotton prices, but it will return to fundamentals later due to weak downstream demand [6] Group 2: Future Trading Tips - Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices [7] - Monitor macro factors [7] - Keep an eye on trade policies [7] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - The price of the US cotton December contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 0.72% [9] - As of June 3, 2025, non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures decreased by 0.13% week - on - week, non - commercial short positions increased by 3.02%, and net short positions decreased by 9.79% [9] US Cotton Export and International Spot - For the week ending June 5, US cotton export sales increased by 60,200 bales, a 45% decrease from the previous week and a 51% decrease from the four - week average [15] - The international cotton spot price index was 78.5 cents per pound, up 0.64% from last week [15] Domestic Futures Market - Zhengzhou Cotton's main 2509 contract and cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose, with gains of about 1.1% and 0.43% respectively [19] - As of this week, the top 20 net positions in cotton futures were - 39,163, and in cotton yarn futures were - 63 [26] - As of this week, cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10,753, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 2 [32] Futures and Spot Price Differences - The price difference between Zhengzhou Cotton's 9 - 1 contract was 15 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,458 yuan per ton [37] Spot Market - As of June 13, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,842 yuan per ton [41] - As of June 12, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,300 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s was 14,540 yuan per ton, and CY index: JC40 was 23,440 yuan per ton [49] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of June 11, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index): M was 13,656 yuan per ton, down 0.76% month - on - month; the sliding - duty port pick - up price was 14,389 yuan per ton, down 0.48% month - on - month [55] - The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): C32S was 20,989 yuan per ton, up 0.06% month - on - month; C21S was 20,056 yuan per ton, unchanged; JC32S was 22,950 yuan per ton, up 0.04% month - on - month [55] Imported Cotton Cost - Profit - As of June 12, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - duty port pick - up price (M) was 465 yuan per ton, and that of the 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,210 yuan per ton [59] Group 4: Industrial Chain Supply - Side: Inventory - As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6939 million tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3154 million tons or - 8.36% [63] - As of the end of May, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 0.9411 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0131 million tons [63] Supply - Side: Imports - In April 2025, China imported about 60,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 82.5% [67] - From September 2024 to April 2025, China imported about 880,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 64.65% [67] Mid - end Industry: Demand - As of the end of May, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 22.34 days, an increase of 1.36 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.2 days, an increase of 1.72 days from the previous month [71] Terminal Consumption: Demand - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 649.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. Textile exports were 329.17 billion yuan, up 4.9%, and clothing exports were 320.37 billion yuan, down 0.5% [75] - In April 2025, textile and clothing exports were 173.44 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [75] - As of April 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 493.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [79] Group 5: Option and Stock Market Option Market - This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the cotton market was analyzed [80] Stock Market - The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was presented [84]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 13 日 棉花：市场乐观情绪推动棉花期货反弹 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 | 元/吨 | 13,240 | 2.24% | 13310 | 0.53% | | | CY2507 | 元/吨 | 19,620 | 2.08% | 19630 | 0.05% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 66.64 | -0.12% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 493,587 | 281,449 | 776,924 | 19,110 | | | CY2507 | 手 | 6,762 | -1,999 | 22,346 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 ...