Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In Q4 2025, the cotton market faces significant pressure, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The international market will remain weak in the short - term, while the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton, will face seasonal supply pressure. However, in the long - run, the prospects for both markets are more positive [1][105]. - For the international market, short - term supply pressure is high due to harvests and slow US cotton export sign - ups. But long - term, cost support and potential changes in trade policies are favorable. For the domestic market, the large expected Xinjiang cotton production in Q4 2025 will test downstream demand, and there is a risk of the price breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton, but there are also factors supporting a rebound [105][106]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Cotton Market Review - **Domestic Market**: Cotton prices first rose and then fell, shifting from trading the "tight reality" to the "loose expectation". In July, prices rose due to low commercial inventories and market sentiment. From late July to August, prices fluctuated due to hedging pressure. In September, prices declined as the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production grew [4]. - **International Market**: It remained weak in the low - level range of 65 - 70 cents/pound. Normal weather during the US cotton growing season and slow export sign - ups due to trade policies led to limited upward movement [5]. 2. Domestic Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory Situation**: As of the end of August, national commercial cotton inventories were 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease. Xinjiang and inland commercial inventories were at multi - year lows. However, cotton textile enterprises had relatively high industrial inventories, which could meet needs until mid - October when new cotton is expected to be available in large quantities. There were reports of inventory shortages in some inland textile enterprises and a prominent shortage of high - quality cotton [12]. - **New Cotton Yield Estimation**: Domestic institutions expect significant increases in Xinjiang and national cotton production in the 2025/2026 season. The report estimates that Xinjiang's cotton production is likely to reach around 7.5 million tons. If so, the supply of about 8.4 million tons (including import quotas) can basically cover demand. The high - yield expectation has already led to a significant decline in the futures price, and attention should be paid to the actual yield [17][18][19]. - **New Cotton Purchase Expectations**: Ginning mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, with most expecting an opening price below 6.3 yuan/kg. Cotton farmers' psychological price is around 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is expected to decline to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg during the peak purchase period, still higher than last year. The large pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton and high pre - sale basis still exist. There is a possibility of a negative feedback loop between the futures price and the seed cotton purchase price, with the purchase price potentially dropping below 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to the futures price possibly breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Import Situation**: In the 2024/2025 season, cotton imports were 1.05 million tons, a 68% year - on - year decrease.棉纱 imports were 1.41 million tons, a 15.6% year - on - year decrease. In the 2025/2026 season, the import volume of cotton and棉纱 is uncertain, depending on trade negotiations. If the current tariff level between China and the US remains, it will continue to suppress imports [29]. - **Downstream Market**: The downstream textile industry had a lackluster peak season, with low profits for spinning enterprises. Although the profit margin improved in September, it remained low overall. Orders improved seasonally in August but were still weaker than in previous years. The inventory structure of downstream棉纱 was healthy, with continued inventory reduction in September. The load of downstream textile enterprises increased seasonally but was still lower than in previous years [33][40]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel Market**: In August, textile and apparel exports declined year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative exports decreased slightly. However, China's textile and apparel exports showed resilience, with exports to the Belt and Road countries and the European Union playing important roles. Exports to the US declined significantly. Domestic demand for textile and apparel showed mild growth in the first eight months of 2025, but the growth rate was still relatively low, and the recovery of domestic demand was slow [50][52][66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The 2024/2025 season had a supply - demand gap of about 600,000 - 700,000 tons. The 2025/2026 season may be a balanced or inventory - accumulating year. The large expected production will test downstream demand in Q4 2025, but the pressure may ease later [69]. - **Future Xinjiang Cotton Production**: There is uncertainty about whether Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production will continue to increase next year. Policy adjustments may occur, and the report believes that production may slightly decline next year due to factors such as possible reduced farmer income and government regulation [73]. 3. International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Situation**: The USDA September report maintained the previous forecast for US cotton supply and demand in the 2025/2026 season, with a tight - balance situation. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening and harvesting progress was slightly behind last year but in line with the five - year average. Hurricane threats were low, and the weather was favorable for later growth and harvest. US cotton new - crop export sign - ups were slow, and the export demand may remain weak due to trade policy uncertainties [80][84][91]. - **Global Supply - Demand**: The 2025/2026 global cotton supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. The USDA September report adjusted the supply and demand estimates, narrowing the supply - demand gap. The global market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and future focus will be on trade policies and demand prospects [95]. 4. Market Outlook - **International Market**: In Q4 2025, the international market will remain weak, with the price likely to test the 65 - cent support level. However, in the long - term, the outlook is not pessimistic, as there is cost support and potential positive changes in trade policies [105]. - **Domestic Market**: In Q4 2025, Zhengzhou cotton faces seasonal supply pressure, with a risk of breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton. But after the release of negative factors, downstream restocking may support the price. The long - term outlook is cautiously optimistic [106]. 5. Strategy - Short - and medium - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to buy at low levels below 13,000 yuan/ton, while closely monitoring macro - level and industrial drivers [108].

每经AI快讯，百隆东方（SH 601339，收盘价：5.45元）9月19日晚间发布公告称，郑亚斐以协议转让方 式向杨燿斌转让其所持有公司全部股份7500万股（占公司总股本5%），股份转让价格为4.27元/股，转 让总价约为3.2亿元。本次协议转让交易于2025年9月3日取得上海证券交易所的合规确认；于2025年9月 19日取得中国证券登记结算有限责任公司出具的《证券过户登记确认书》。 （记者 曾健辉） 2024年1至12月份，百隆东方的营业收入构成为：棉纺行业占比92.26%，其他业务占比7.74%。 截至发稿，百隆东方市值为82亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"25基点太少，50基点太多"：美联储降息"走钢丝"，"特朗普代言人"投下唯 一反对票 ...

2024年1至12月份，百隆东方的营业收入构成为：棉纺行业占比92.26%，其他业务占比7.74%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 百隆东方（SH 601339，收盘价：5.59元）8月14日晚间发布公告称，公司第五届第十八次董事会会议于 2025年8月14日在公司总部会议室以通讯表决结合现场表决方式召开。会议审议了《关于2025年度中期 分红的议案》等文件。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 2024年1至12月份，百隆东方的营业收入构成为：棉纺行业占比92.26%，其他业务占比7.74%。 百隆东方（SH 601339，收盘价：5.47元）8月6日晚间发布公告称，公司第五届第十七次董事会会议于 2025年8月6日在公司总部会议室以通讯表决结合现场表决方式召开。会议审议了《关于修订的议案》等 文件。 ...