Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In Q4 2025, the cotton market faces significant pressure, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The international market will remain weak in the short - term, while the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton, will face seasonal supply pressure. However, in the long - run, the prospects for both markets are more positive [1][105]. - For the international market, short - term supply pressure is high due to harvests and slow US cotton export sign - ups. But long - term, cost support and potential changes in trade policies are favorable. For the domestic market, the large expected Xinjiang cotton production in Q4 2025 will test downstream demand, and there is a risk of the price breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton, but there are also factors supporting a rebound [105][106]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Cotton Market Review - **Domestic Market**: Cotton prices first rose and then fell, shifting from trading the "tight reality" to the "loose expectation". In July, prices rose due to low commercial inventories and market sentiment. From late July to August, prices fluctuated due to hedging pressure. In September, prices declined as the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production grew [4]. - **International Market**: It remained weak in the low - level range of 65 - 70 cents/pound. Normal weather during the US cotton growing season and slow export sign - ups due to trade policies led to limited upward movement [5]. 2. Domestic Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory Situation**: As of the end of August, national commercial cotton inventories were 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease. Xinjiang and inland commercial inventories were at multi - year lows. However, cotton textile enterprises had relatively high industrial inventories, which could meet needs until mid - October when new cotton is expected to be available in large quantities. There were reports of inventory shortages in some inland textile enterprises and a prominent shortage of high - quality cotton [12]. - **New Cotton Yield Estimation**: Domestic institutions expect significant increases in Xinjiang and national cotton production in the 2025/2026 season. The report estimates that Xinjiang's cotton production is likely to reach around 7.5 million tons. If so, the supply of about 8.4 million tons (including import quotas) can basically cover demand. The high - yield expectation has already led to a significant decline in the futures price, and attention should be paid to the actual yield [17][18][19]. - **New Cotton Purchase Expectations**: Ginning mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, with most expecting an opening price below 6.3 yuan/kg. Cotton farmers' psychological price is around 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is expected to decline to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg during the peak purchase period, still higher than last year. The large pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton and high pre - sale basis still exist. There is a possibility of a negative feedback loop between the futures price and the seed cotton purchase price, with the purchase price potentially dropping below 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to the futures price possibly breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Import Situation**: In the 2024/2025 season, cotton imports were 1.05 million tons, a 68% year - on - year decrease.棉纱 imports were 1.41 million tons, a 15.6% year - on - year decrease. In the 2025/2026 season, the import volume of cotton and棉纱 is uncertain, depending on trade negotiations. If the current tariff level between China and the US remains, it will continue to suppress imports [29]. - **Downstream Market**: The downstream textile industry had a lackluster peak season, with low profits for spinning enterprises. Although the profit margin improved in September, it remained low overall. Orders improved seasonally in August but were still weaker than in previous years. The inventory structure of downstream棉纱 was healthy, with continued inventory reduction in September. The load of downstream textile enterprises increased seasonally but was still lower than in previous years [33][40]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel Market**: In August, textile and apparel exports declined year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative exports decreased slightly. However, China's textile and apparel exports showed resilience, with exports to the Belt and Road countries and the European Union playing important roles. Exports to the US declined significantly. Domestic demand for textile and apparel showed mild growth in the first eight months of 2025, but the growth rate was still relatively low, and the recovery of domestic demand was slow [50][52][66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The 2024/2025 season had a supply - demand gap of about 600,000 - 700,000 tons. The 2025/2026 season may be a balanced or inventory - accumulating year. The large expected production will test downstream demand in Q4 2025, but the pressure may ease later [69]. - **Future Xinjiang Cotton Production**: There is uncertainty about whether Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production will continue to increase next year. Policy adjustments may occur, and the report believes that production may slightly decline next year due to factors such as possible reduced farmer income and government regulation [73]. 3. International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Situation**: The USDA September report maintained the previous forecast for US cotton supply and demand in the 2025/2026 season, with a tight - balance situation. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening and harvesting progress was slightly behind last year but in line with the five - year average. Hurricane threats were low, and the weather was favorable for later growth and harvest. US cotton new - crop export sign - ups were slow, and the export demand may remain weak due to trade policy uncertainties [80][84][91]. - **Global Supply - Demand**: The 2025/2026 global cotton supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. The USDA September report adjusted the supply and demand estimates, narrowing the supply - demand gap. The global market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and future focus will be on trade policies and demand prospects [95]. 4. Market Outlook - **International Market**: In Q4 2025, the international market will remain weak, with the price likely to test the 65 - cent support level. However, in the long - term, the outlook is not pessimistic, as there is cost support and potential positive changes in trade policies [105]. - **Domestic Market**: In Q4 2025, Zhengzhou cotton faces seasonal supply pressure, with a risk of breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton. But after the release of negative factors, downstream restocking may support the price. The long - term outlook is cautiously optimistic [106]. 5. Strategy - Short - and medium - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to buy at low levels below 13,000 yuan/ton, while closely monitoring macro - level and industrial drivers [108].

Group 1 - Cotton futures are experiencing low volatility, with the main contract reported at 13,980.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.96% [1] - As of the end of July, China's cotton commercial inventory stands at 2.19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 588,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 640,000 tons, indicating a low level compared to recent years [2] - The average price of 3128 cotton arriving at factories was 15,590 CNY/ton, an increase of 170.00 CNY/ton, while the price of 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 21,555 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the speed of cotton inventory reduction and the operating rates of yarn and weaving factories have not shown significant improvement, indicating weak terminal demand [3] - The domestic cotton market is facing tight supply, with the cash basis remaining strong despite recent increases in sliding tax quota issuance, while the textile market is still in the off-season with insufficient new orders [3] - Short-term expectations for Zheng cotton indicate a potential slight decline next week, with a focus on the range of 14,000 to 14,500 CNY/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the US cotton planting intention report was bearish as the USDA's estimated cotton planting area in the US for 2025 was higher than market expectations. Domestically, the expected positive outcome of the China - US negotiations at the end of June supported cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, the rapid strengthening of the basis was unfavorable for downstream consumption, the inventory reduction speed slowed down, and import quotas might be issued in the future. Overall, short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be focused on the implementation of the China - US negotiation results [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: In June, US cotton futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. As of June 30, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 68.04 cents per pound, up 0.23 cents per pound from the previous month, a rise of 0.34%. The USDA's planting intention report showed that the estimated cotton planting area in the US for 2025 was 10.12 million acres, higher than the market's previous estimate of 9.735 million acres, and the actual planting area in 2024 was 11.183 million acres. As of June 29, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, exceeding the level of the same period last year [9]. - **Domestic Market Review**: In June, Zhengzhou cotton prices rebounded. As of June 30, the closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,740 yuan per ton, up 465 yuan per ton from the previous month, a rise of 3.5%. In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons. As of the end of May in the 2024/25 season (from August to the following July), China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86 million tons. On June 27, the Chinese and US sides further confirmed the details of the framework, and the US would cancel a series of restrictive measures against China [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: The US cotton planting intention report in June was bearish. Domestically, the expected positive outcome of the China - US negotiations supported cotton prices, but the rapid strengthening of the basis was unfavorable for downstream consumption, and import quotas might be issued. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the China - US negotiation results [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: As of June 30, 2025, the basis was 1,421 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan per ton, the spinning spot profit was - 1,762 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 245 yuan per ton, the FC index M 1% was 14,021 yuan per ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty was 14,637 yuan per ton. The short - term cotton price may continue the rebound trend, and attention should be paid to the China - US negotiation results [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Not provided [11] 3.2 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: Relevant data on China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and national cotton processing volume are presented in figures [38][39] - **Cotton Imports**: In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons. As of the end of May in the 2024/25 season, cumulative imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86 million tons [9][40] - **US Exports to China**: Data on the US's cumulative and weekly export contract volumes to China are provided in figures [42][43] - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: Data on China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes are presented in figures [44][45] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Data on the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories are provided in figures [46][47] - **Cotton Sales and Transactions**: Data on the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are presented in figures [48] - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the combined monthly commercial and industrial inventory are presented in figures [49][50] - **Spinning Mill Inventories**: Data on the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills are presented in figures [51][52] 3.3 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Data on CFTC fund and commercial net positions are presented in figures [55][56] - **US Planting Situation**: Data on the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - to - excellent rate are presented in figures [57][58] - **US Production Situation**: Data on the bi - weekly and cumulative cotton processing volumes in the US are presented in figures [59][60] - **US Yield and Planting Area**: Data on the estimated US cotton yield and planting area are presented in figures [61][63] - **US Export Contract Progress**: Data on the US's current - year cumulative and weekly cotton export contract volumes are presented in figures [66][67] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: Data on the US's annual cumulative cotton export shipment volume and progress are presented in figures [68][69] - **US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Data on the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [70] - **Brazil Yield and Planting Area**: Data on Brazil's cotton planting area and yield are presented in figures [71][72] - **Brazil Export Volume**: Data on Brazil's cotton export volume are presented in figures [74][75] - **Brazil Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Data on Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [77] - **India Yield and Planting Area**: Data on India's cotton planting area and yield are presented in figures [79][80] - **India Consumption and Imports/Exports**: Data on India's cotton consumption, import, and export volumes are presented in figures [82][83] - **India Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Data on India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [85] 3.4 Spread Trend Review - **China Cotton Price Index and Basis**: Figures show the China cotton price index and the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - **Import Profit**: Figures show the price differences inside and outside the country under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: Figures show the spreads of Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 and 9 - 1 [31] - **Regional Spread and Spinning Mill Profit**: Figures show the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's spot profit [32] - **US Cotton Spread**: Figures show the spreads of US cotton 12 - 3 and 7 - 12 contracts [34] - **External Market Spread**: Figures show the US - Brazil spread and the difference between FCindexM1% and CotlookA index 1% tariff [35]

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, cotton prices showed a volatile trend. Abroad, the weather in US cotton - growing areas has been favorable recently, with increased rainfall alleviating the poor soil moisture in the western regions. As of June 17, the drought - affected area in US cotton - growing areas dropped to 3%, lower than last year. Last week, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 48%, at the average level of previous years. US cotton export net sales reached 358,100 bales last week, a significant increase. The external market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with US crude oil rebounding after a decline due to geopolitical factors and the US dollar index stabilizing as the Fed maintains the interest rate. In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and cotton imports are scarce. The downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a lackluster cotton price under the situation of weak supply and demand. The new cotton sowing in Xinjiang is completed, and the weather in the growing areas is normal, with good cotton growth. The strategy is that with the mix of bullish and bearish factors, US cotton prices continue to decline. Currently, the new cotton sowing in China is completed, the weather in growing areas is favorable, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and cotton imports are low. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the cotton price remains stable. Waiting for new guidance, the Zhengzhou cotton will continue to move in a volatile manner in the short term [6]. Group 2: Market Performance Review - As of the close on June 20, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 66.76 cents per pound, down 1.14 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 1.68%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,495 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Cotton Sowing and Growth - As of the week of June 15, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 48% (49% the previous week, 54% in the same period last year), the planting rate was 85% (76% the previous week, 89% last year, with a five - year average of 90%), the boll - setting rate was 3% (5% last year, five - year average of 3%), and the budding rate was 19% (12% the previous week, 21% last year, five - year average of 17%) [16]. US Cotton Exports - As of the week of June 12, the net export sales of US 2024/2025 upland cotton were 83,000 bales (60,000 bales the previous week), the net sales of 2025/2026 upland cotton were 275,000 bales (36,000 bales the previous week), and the export shipments were 205,000 bales (236,000 bales the previous week) [21]. Domestic Spinning Mills' Operation - As of June 19, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 71.7%, a 0.69% decline from the previous week. Spinning mills have limited new orders. Small and medium - sized spinning mills in the inland areas often operate in staggered shifts, with the operating rate reduced to 50% - 60%. The operation of Xinjiang spinning mills is basically stable, maintaining at 80% - 90% [25]. Domestic Spinning Mills' Inventory - As of the week of June 19, the inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of cotton storage days was 28.2 days. As of June 19, the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.5 days, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Currently, the operating rate of Foshan grey fabric factories is 20% - 30%, and the overall raw material procurement is cautious. The raw material inventory of yarn enterprises has accumulated, with the inventory of some large factories in Xinjiang around 35 - 40 days and that of inland enterprises around 17 - 28 days [28]. Domestic Cotton Inventory - As of June 20, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.9915 million tons, a decrease of 106,500 tons (3.44% decline) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 87,100 tons (3.95% decline) from the previous week, and the commercial cotton in inland areas was 447,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (0.22% decline) from the previous week. As of June 19, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 4.15% from the previous week, with a total inventory of 424,700 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [30].