棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13645 | 60 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20065 | -10 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -97326 | -7854 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -949 | -445 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 552401 | 486 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 18640 | -3060 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 2319 | 79 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 14 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 14832 | 39 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20660 | 70 | | /吨) | 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 | | ...

棉系周报：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 ...

棉系周报：采摘进入尾声 棉价震荡为主 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 第二部分 周度数据追踪 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 基 础 色 辅 助 色 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/8 ...

棉系周报：收购进入高峰 棉价震荡略偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 137/137/137 246/206/207 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the macro - situation of the US cotton market shows no significant changes. With a high - quality rate at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, the US cotton is expected to show a volatile trend. In the domestic market, as new cotton is being acquired and the acquisition price stabilizes while downstream demand remains unchanged, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][25]. - As new cotton is increasingly on the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand on the demand side is general, with limited improvement, so its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [25][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no obvious changes in the macro - situation and a high - quality rate at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, the US cotton is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 269,100 tons, accounting for 8.6% of the estimated annual US cotton output, 27% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of US upland cotton was 9.57%, 27% slower year - on - year, and the inspection of Pima cotton had not started. The weekly deliverable ratio was 69.2%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 80.6%, 7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 4 percentage points lower quarter - on - quarter [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of September 18, 2025, the weekly contract signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease; the weekly shipment volume was 31,100 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 23, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 23.65% (a 0.34 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease) [8]. - **Brazil**: The 2024/25 annual cotton output in Brazil is expected to be 4.077 million tons, a 16,000 - ton increase from the previous month. The 2025/26 annual output is expected to be 4.031 million tons, a 46,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 472,000 tons, a 49% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a 230,000 - ton month - on - month increase; the total consumption was 25.68 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The domestic new cotton harvesting is in a high - incidence period. The harvesting progress in northern Xinjiang is nearly 80%, and about 30% in southern Xinjiang. The market speculates on the production reduction in southern Xinjiang, driving up the seed cotton price. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rate of national ginneries increased to 76.9%, a 62.5% increase from the previous week. As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection volume was 491,499 tons, a 113.21% year - on - year increase. As of October 10, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.1554 million tons, a 174,600 - ton (17.80%) increase from the previous week [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, a 0.20% increase from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills decreased by 1% month - on - month [25]. 3.3 Option Strategy - Volatility Trend: The HV on the previous day was 8.4519, with a slight decrease in volatility. - Option Strategy Recommendation: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7661, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.8549. Both call and put trading volumes increased. It is recommended to wait and see [39]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: During the holiday, as new cotton is being acquired, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. With a high cotton output in Xinjiang and general acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries, there is no large - scale rush for acquisition. As new cotton is increasingly on the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand is general, with limited improvement, so its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [42]. - **Single - Side Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time [42]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [42]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Information on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days is presented through historical data charts [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory from 2015 to 2024 are provided [51]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: Information on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the average basis of US upland cotton in seven major markets, and the basis between the spot price of C32S cotton yarn and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn is presented through historical data charts [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08%. The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.16%. The price of the main contract of cotton yarn futures 2601 increased by about 0.49% [5][12][23]. - In the domestic market, the estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 727,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, and an upward adjustment of 62,000 tons from the previous period. The current mainstream price of new cotton is around 6.1 yuan/kg, and the cost is still generally supported. The operating rate of textile enterprises is still low, and the peak season continues to show weak performance. It is expected that the replenishment enthusiasm of textile enterprises will be low in the later period. In the new year, the centralized acquisition and processing of cotton will bring a large number of hedging needs, with significant upward pressure and cost support below. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract [6]. - Future trading should pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the domestic market, supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.16%. As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 69,367 lots, a decrease of 751 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 114,787 lots, an increase of 2020 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 45,420 lots, an increase of 2771 lots from the previous week [12]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The current international cotton spot price is 74.85 cents/lb, a decrease of 1.2 cents/lb from the previous week [16]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract increased by about 0.49%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 82,062 lots, and those in cotton yarn futures were - 447 lots. The warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures were 2653 lots, and those of cotton yarn futures were 0 lots [23][29][35]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,679 yuan/ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,440 yuan/ton [41][51]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of October 16, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,851 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan/ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 786 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week [56][59]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. The industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was stable with a slight decrease. In August 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6% [62][68]. - **Demand Side**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days; the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 days. In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [71][76][80]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: There is information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week, but no specific data is given [81]. - **Stock Market**: There is a graph of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa (600359), but no specific analysis is provided [84].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton Under Pressure, New Cotton Gradually Coming to Market - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: October 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Domestically, after the National Day holiday, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded with fluctuations, reaching a maximum of 13,420 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton increased slightly. As the purchase of seed cotton fully unfolds, the supply pressure gradually increases, and hedging currently has a small profit, significantly suppressing Zhengzhou cotton. Technically, Zhengzhou cotton tried to rebound but was pressured around 13,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is support around 13,000 yuan/ton and significant pressure around 13,500 yuan/ton [53]. - Internationally, due to the U.S. government shutdown and data suspension, the market sentiment is cautious, and market fluctuations may be limited before data resumes. Fundamentally, countries such as India, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh face significant resistance in exporting cotton products and clothing to the U.S. due to substantial tariff increases. As a countermeasure, they will increase purchases of Brazilian cotton, and U.S. cotton exports face certain challenges. It is expected that U.S. cotton will be under pressure and remain weak [53]. Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Prices - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. ICE cotton futures continued to be weak, with a weekly decline of 1.45% [9]. Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index increased. The 3128 index rose by 17 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 4 yuan/ton [13]. Import Situation - In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons [18]. Inventory Situation - As of the first half of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons compared to the second half of August [19]. Downstream Inventory - In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year-on-year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year-on-year increase of 4.11 days [26]. Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices decreased. The price of 10 - count air - spun cotton yarn decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn decreased by 155 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn decreased by 150 yuan/ton [31]. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 554. The number of warehouse receipts was 3,030, and the valid forecasts were 11, totaling 3,041 [37]. Seed Cotton Purchase - The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased slightly compared to the previous week [42]. U.S. Cotton Exports - As of September 11, the current - year net export sales of U.S. upland cotton increased by 186,100 bales, and the next - year net export sales were 19,000 bales [44][47]. U.S. Weather - The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 34.2%, with different drought levels having varying proportions [50]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton has support around 13,000 yuan/ton and significant pressure around 13,500 yuan/ton in the short term [53]. - Internationally, the market may have limited fluctuations before data resumes, and U.S. cotton exports face challenges and are expected to remain weak [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In Q4 2025, the cotton market faces significant pressure, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The international market will remain weak in the short - term, while the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton, will face seasonal supply pressure. However, in the long - run, the prospects for both markets are more positive [1][105]. - For the international market, short - term supply pressure is high due to harvests and slow US cotton export sign - ups. But long - term, cost support and potential changes in trade policies are favorable. For the domestic market, the large expected Xinjiang cotton production in Q4 2025 will test downstream demand, and there is a risk of the price breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton, but there are also factors supporting a rebound [105][106]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Cotton Market Review - **Domestic Market**: Cotton prices first rose and then fell, shifting from trading the "tight reality" to the "loose expectation". In July, prices rose due to low commercial inventories and market sentiment. From late July to August, prices fluctuated due to hedging pressure. In September, prices declined as the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production grew [4]. - **International Market**: It remained weak in the low - level range of 65 - 70 cents/pound. Normal weather during the US cotton growing season and slow export sign - ups due to trade policies led to limited upward movement [5]. 2. Domestic Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory Situation**: As of the end of August, national commercial cotton inventories were 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease. Xinjiang and inland commercial inventories were at multi - year lows. However, cotton textile enterprises had relatively high industrial inventories, which could meet needs until mid - October when new cotton is expected to be available in large quantities. There were reports of inventory shortages in some inland textile enterprises and a prominent shortage of high - quality cotton [12]. - **New Cotton Yield Estimation**: Domestic institutions expect significant increases in Xinjiang and national cotton production in the 2025/2026 season. The report estimates that Xinjiang's cotton production is likely to reach around 7.5 million tons. If so, the supply of about 8.4 million tons (including import quotas) can basically cover demand. The high - yield expectation has already led to a significant decline in the futures price, and attention should be paid to the actual yield [17][18][19]. - **New Cotton Purchase Expectations**: Ginning mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, with most expecting an opening price below 6.3 yuan/kg. Cotton farmers' psychological price is around 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is expected to decline to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg during the peak purchase period, still higher than last year. The large pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton and high pre - sale basis still exist. There is a possibility of a negative feedback loop between the futures price and the seed cotton purchase price, with the purchase price potentially dropping below 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to the futures price possibly breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Import Situation**: In the 2024/2025 season, cotton imports were 1.05 million tons, a 68% year - on - year decrease.棉纱 imports were 1.41 million tons, a 15.6% year - on - year decrease. In the 2025/2026 season, the import volume of cotton and棉纱 is uncertain, depending on trade negotiations. If the current tariff level between China and the US remains, it will continue to suppress imports [29]. - **Downstream Market**: The downstream textile industry had a lackluster peak season, with low profits for spinning enterprises. Although the profit margin improved in September, it remained low overall. Orders improved seasonally in August but were still weaker than in previous years. The inventory structure of downstream棉纱 was healthy, with continued inventory reduction in September. The load of downstream textile enterprises increased seasonally but was still lower than in previous years [33][40]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel Market**: In August, textile and apparel exports declined year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative exports decreased slightly. However, China's textile and apparel exports showed resilience, with exports to the Belt and Road countries and the European Union playing important roles. Exports to the US declined significantly. Domestic demand for textile and apparel showed mild growth in the first eight months of 2025, but the growth rate was still relatively low, and the recovery of domestic demand was slow [50][52][66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The 2024/2025 season had a supply - demand gap of about 600,000 - 700,000 tons. The 2025/2026 season may be a balanced or inventory - accumulating year. The large expected production will test downstream demand in Q4 2025, but the pressure may ease later [69]. - **Future Xinjiang Cotton Production**: There is uncertainty about whether Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production will continue to increase next year. Policy adjustments may occur, and the report believes that production may slightly decline next year due to factors such as possible reduced farmer income and government regulation [73]. 3. International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Situation**: The USDA September report maintained the previous forecast for US cotton supply and demand in the 2025/2026 season, with a tight - balance situation. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening and harvesting progress was slightly behind last year but in line with the five - year average. Hurricane threats were low, and the weather was favorable for later growth and harvest. US cotton new - crop export sign - ups were slow, and the export demand may remain weak due to trade policy uncertainties [80][84][91]. - **Global Supply - Demand**: The 2025/2026 global cotton supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. The USDA September report adjusted the supply and demand estimates, narrowing the supply - demand gap. The global market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and future focus will be on trade policies and demand prospects [95]. 4. Market Outlook - **International Market**: In Q4 2025, the international market will remain weak, with the price likely to test the 65 - cent support level. However, in the long - term, the outlook is not pessimistic, as there is cost support and potential positive changes in trade policies [105]. - **Domestic Market**: In Q4 2025, Zhengzhou cotton faces seasonal supply pressure, with a risk of breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton. But after the release of negative factors, downstream restocking may support the price. The long - term outlook is cautiously optimistic [106]. 5. Strategy - Short - and medium - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to buy at low levels below 13,000 yuan/ton, while closely monitoring macro - level and industrial drivers [108].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Cotton Prices Fluctuate Weakly as New Cotton Approaches the Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As new cotton gradually enters the acquisition phase, the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. With the arrival of the peak season in September, the improvement in downstream demand is relatively limited. It is expected that the cotton market will show a short - term weak and volatile trend. The increase in Xinjiang cotton production and the general acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries may lead to selling hedging pressure on the market. [26][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton market is expected to move in a range - bound manner. As of September 14, the boll opening rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 50%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The harvest rate was 9%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 52%, 13 percentage points higher than last year and 10 percentage points higher than the five - year average. [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: In the week ending September 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts reached 42,200 tons, a 44% weekly increase and a 13% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. Vietnam contracted 17,500 tons and India contracted 9,500 tons. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 27,300 tons, an 8% weekly decrease and an 8% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. [8] - **CFTC Position**: As of September 12, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 986 to 19,135, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 283 to 43,577, equivalent to 990,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. [8] - **Brazil**: Brazil's cotton harvest is basically completed. The processing progress as of September 11 was 36%. Due to the slow harvest, the processing was behind schedule, and the short - term export of new Brazilian cotton declined. According to the quality report in August, indicators such as micronaire and strength declined compared to last year. [8] - **India**: In the week from September 11 to September 17, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 44.1 mm, 11.3 mm higher than the normal level and 33.4 mm higher than last year. From June 1 to September 17, 2025, the cumulative rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas was 893.1 mm, 147.6 mm higher than the normal level. [8] - **Global Situation**: According to the latest USDA September global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. Total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons. [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The new - season cotton is at the end of the boll - opening stage. In some areas of northern Xinjiang, seed cotton has been sporadically listed, with the purchase price at 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg. In southern Xinjiang, the price of seed cotton for wadding is 7.45 - 7.5 yuan/kg, and in inland areas, the price of hand - picked seed cotton is 7.35 - 7.4 yuan/kg. The purchase price is slightly weak, and the new cotton is expected to have a good harvest. The supply of high - quality old cotton is limited, and the price is firm. As of September 12, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.2718 million tons, a decrease of 143,800 tons (a decrease of 10.16%) compared to last week. [26] - **Demand Side**: In the pure - cotton yarn market, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline this week, and cotton yarn futures followed suit. In the spot market, the trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and the atmosphere was not as good as in previous peak seasons. The price of cotton yarn followed the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, and the price center shifted downward. The inventory of yarn decreased this week, but the decline rate slowed down. [26] Option Trading Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR was 0.7569, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 1.0303. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today, indicating obvious bearish sentiment in the market. It is recommended to wait and see. [40] Futures Trading Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton market will mostly move in a range - bound manner in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. [44] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic - International Price Difference**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic - international cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend. - **Mid - end Situation**: Information on the operating loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and full - cotton fabric mills, as well as the inventory days of yarn and fabric, is presented. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report provides data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory over different time periods. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton.

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Attention to USDA Report Adjustment [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Jianing (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0020097) [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the inventory of old cotton is low, new cotton is mostly pre - sold, and the downstream maintains a de - stocking state, which supports cotton prices. However, the spinning profit of yarn mills is poor, and the hedging pressure is large under the expectation of a bumper harvest, which may limit the upside of cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may fluctuate within the previous range. Attention should be paid to the listing situation of new cotton and the adjustment of the USDA's September supply - demand forecast report [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market Supply - As of September 4, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.1%, the same as the same period last year (neutral) [2]. Import - In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons; the cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons; the cotton cloth import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.57% (neutral) [2]. Demand - In July, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.63% and a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In August, the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.539 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% (bearish) [2]. Inventory - As of the end of August, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in China was 2.374 million tons, a decrease of 714,200 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 622,000 tons. Among them, the commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July, and the industrial inventory was 892,300 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from the end of July (bullish) [2]. International Market US Supply - As of September 7, the boll - setting rate of cotton in the US was 97%, 1 percentage point behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the lint - opening rate was 40%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the overall good - to - excellent rate of cotton plants was 54%, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 14 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year (neutral) [2][3]. US Demand - From August 29 to September 4, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 upland cotton was 29,393 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47% and a 33% decrease from the four - week average; the shipment volume of upland cotton was 29,529 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% and a 2% decrease from the four - week average; the net signing volume of Pima cotton was 272 tons, and the shipment volume was 1,315 tons. There were no signings of 2026/2027 upland cotton and Pima cotton this week (bearish) [3]. Southeast Asian Supply - As of August 29, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.88 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.3% (bullish) [3]. Southeast Asian Demand - In August, the export volume of textile and clothing in Vietnam was 3.86 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%; the export volume of clothing in Bangladesh was 3.17 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, the export volume of clothing in India was 1.34 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export volume of textile and clothing in Pakistan was 1.68 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 10.37% and a year - on - year increase of 32.13% (bearish) [3]. Market Situation - This week, Zhengzhou cotton further tested the lower limit of the oscillation range. New cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be harvested about 10 days earlier than usual. Next week, there may be a new round of cooling in Xinjiang, and there may be precipitation in northern Xinjiang. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the lint - opening and harvesting progress of new cotton. Downstream, in the seasonal peak season, the overall load of gauze mills has been further increased, and the finished - product inventory has continued to decline. Recently, the profit of yarn mills has been repaired, but the amplitude is limited. Spinning enterprises in the inland still face great operating pressure, and the replenishment intensity of yarn mills is weak, with insufficient market confidence. Abroad, as of September 6, the harvesting progress of new cotton in Brazil has reached 86.9%. CONAB's latest forecast for the new - season cotton output in Brazil is 4.061 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase and a 9.7% year - on - year increase, with the expectation of a bumper harvest remaining unchanged. As of September 4, the cumulative signed export volume of US 2025/2026 cotton was 882,000 tons, reaching 33.74% of the annual expected export volume. Recently, India has accelerated the signing and import of US cotton under the extension of the import tariff exemption period, but the overall export progress of US cotton has been continuously slow [5]. Data Overview Futures Data - Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,860 yuan, down 140 yuan or 1% from the previous week; Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 13,820 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.86%; Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13,380 yuan, down 200 yuan or 1.47% [7]. Spot Data - CC Index 3128B was priced at 15,248 yuan, down 198 yuan or 1.28%; CC Index 2227B was priced at 13,379 yuan, down 159 yuan or 1.17%; CC Index 2129B was priced at 15,526 yuan, down 168 yuan or 1.07% [7]. Spread Data - The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan, down 20 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 440 yuan, up 80 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 480 yuan, down 60 yuan [8]. Import Price - FC Index M was priced at 13,371 yuan, up 96 yuan or 0.72%; FCY Index C32s was priced at 21,249 yuan, down 48 yuan or 0.23% [8]. Cotton Yarn Data - The futures price of cotton yarn closed at 19,845 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.6%; the spot price was 20,745 yuan, down 15 yuan or 0.07% [8].