棉花市场分析

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25Q4展望:四季度棉市压力大,长期不悲观
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 09:05
Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In Q4 2025, the cotton market faces significant pressure, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The international market will remain weak in the short - term, while the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton, will face seasonal supply pressure. However, in the long - run, the prospects for both markets are more positive [1][105]. - For the international market, short - term supply pressure is high due to harvests and slow US cotton export sign - ups. But long - term, cost support and potential changes in trade policies are favorable. For the domestic market, the large expected Xinjiang cotton production in Q4 2025 will test downstream demand, and there is a risk of the price breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton, but there are also factors supporting a rebound [105][106]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Cotton Market Review - **Domestic Market**: Cotton prices first rose and then fell, shifting from trading the "tight reality" to the "loose expectation". In July, prices rose due to low commercial inventories and market sentiment. From late July to August, prices fluctuated due to hedging pressure. In September, prices declined as the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production grew [4]. - **International Market**: It remained weak in the low - level range of 65 - 70 cents/pound. Normal weather during the US cotton growing season and slow export sign - ups due to trade policies led to limited upward movement [5]. 2. Domestic Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory Situation**: As of the end of August, national commercial cotton inventories were 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease. Xinjiang and inland commercial inventories were at multi - year lows. However, cotton textile enterprises had relatively high industrial inventories, which could meet needs until mid - October when new cotton is expected to be available in large quantities. There were reports of inventory shortages in some inland textile enterprises and a prominent shortage of high - quality cotton [12]. - **New Cotton Yield Estimation**: Domestic institutions expect significant increases in Xinjiang and national cotton production in the 2025/2026 season. The report estimates that Xinjiang's cotton production is likely to reach around 7.5 million tons. If so, the supply of about 8.4 million tons (including import quotas) can basically cover demand. The high - yield expectation has already led to a significant decline in the futures price, and attention should be paid to the actual yield [17][18][19]. - **New Cotton Purchase Expectations**: Ginning mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, with most expecting an opening price below 6.3 yuan/kg. Cotton farmers' psychological price is around 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is expected to decline to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg during the peak purchase period, still higher than last year. The large pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton and high pre - sale basis still exist. There is a possibility of a negative feedback loop between the futures price and the seed cotton purchase price, with the purchase price potentially dropping below 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to the futures price possibly breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Import Situation**: In the 2024/2025 season, cotton imports were 1.05 million tons, a 68% year - on - year decrease.棉纱 imports were 1.41 million tons, a 15.6% year - on - year decrease. In the 2025/2026 season, the import volume of cotton and棉纱 is uncertain, depending on trade negotiations. If the current tariff level between China and the US remains, it will continue to suppress imports [29]. - **Downstream Market**: The downstream textile industry had a lackluster peak season, with low profits for spinning enterprises. Although the profit margin improved in September, it remained low overall. Orders improved seasonally in August but were still weaker than in previous years. The inventory structure of downstream棉纱 was healthy, with continued inventory reduction in September. The load of downstream textile enterprises increased seasonally but was still lower than in previous years [33][40]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel Market**: In August, textile and apparel exports declined year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative exports decreased slightly. However, China's textile and apparel exports showed resilience, with exports to the Belt and Road countries and the European Union playing important roles. Exports to the US declined significantly. Domestic demand for textile and apparel showed mild growth in the first eight months of 2025, but the growth rate was still relatively low, and the recovery of domestic demand was slow [50][52][66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The 2024/2025 season had a supply - demand gap of about 600,000 - 700,000 tons. The 2025/2026 season may be a balanced or inventory - accumulating year. The large expected production will test downstream demand in Q4 2025, but the pressure may ease later [69]. - **Future Xinjiang Cotton Production**: There is uncertainty about whether Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production will continue to increase next year. Policy adjustments may occur, and the report believes that production may slightly decline next year due to factors such as possible reduced farmer income and government regulation [73]. 3. International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Situation**: The USDA September report maintained the previous forecast for US cotton supply and demand in the 2025/2026 season, with a tight - balance situation. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening and harvesting progress was slightly behind last year but in line with the five - year average. Hurricane threats were low, and the weather was favorable for later growth and harvest. US cotton new - crop export sign - ups were slow, and the export demand may remain weak due to trade policy uncertainties [80][84][91]. - **Global Supply - Demand**: The 2025/2026 global cotton supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. The USDA September report adjusted the supply and demand estimates, narrowing the supply - demand gap. The global market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and future focus will be on trade policies and demand prospects [95]. 4. Market Outlook - **International Market**: In Q4 2025, the international market will remain weak, with the price likely to test the 65 - cent support level. However, in the long - term, the outlook is not pessimistic, as there is cost support and potential positive changes in trade policies [105]. - **Domestic Market**: In Q4 2025, Zhengzhou cotton faces seasonal supply pressure, with a risk of breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton. But after the release of negative factors, downstream restocking may support the price. The long - term outlook is cautiously optimistic [106]. 5. Strategy - Short - and medium - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to buy at low levels below 13,000 yuan/ton, while closely monitoring macro - level and industrial drivers [108].
棉系周报:临近新棉上市,棉价震荡偏弱-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:10
Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Cotton Prices Fluctuate Weakly as New Cotton Approaches the Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As new cotton gradually enters the acquisition phase, the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. With the arrival of the peak season in September, the improvement in downstream demand is relatively limited. It is expected that the cotton market will show a short - term weak and volatile trend. The increase in Xinjiang cotton production and the general acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries may lead to selling hedging pressure on the market. [26][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton market is expected to move in a range - bound manner. As of September 14, the boll opening rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 50%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The harvest rate was 9%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 52%, 13 percentage points higher than last year and 10 percentage points higher than the five - year average. [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: In the week ending September 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts reached 42,200 tons, a 44% weekly increase and a 13% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. Vietnam contracted 17,500 tons and India contracted 9,500 tons. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 27,300 tons, an 8% weekly decrease and an 8% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. [8] - **CFTC Position**: As of September 12, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 986 to 19,135, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 283 to 43,577, equivalent to 990,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. [8] - **Brazil**: Brazil's cotton harvest is basically completed. The processing progress as of September 11 was 36%. Due to the slow harvest, the processing was behind schedule, and the short - term export of new Brazilian cotton declined. According to the quality report in August, indicators such as micronaire and strength declined compared to last year. [8] - **India**: In the week from September 11 to September 17, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 44.1 mm, 11.3 mm higher than the normal level and 33.4 mm higher than last year. From June 1 to September 17, 2025, the cumulative rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas was 893.1 mm, 147.6 mm higher than the normal level. [8] - **Global Situation**: According to the latest USDA September global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. Total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons. [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The new - season cotton is at the end of the boll - opening stage. In some areas of northern Xinjiang, seed cotton has been sporadically listed, with the purchase price at 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg. In southern Xinjiang, the price of seed cotton for wadding is 7.45 - 7.5 yuan/kg, and in inland areas, the price of hand - picked seed cotton is 7.35 - 7.4 yuan/kg. The purchase price is slightly weak, and the new cotton is expected to have a good harvest. The supply of high - quality old cotton is limited, and the price is firm. As of September 12, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.2718 million tons, a decrease of 143,800 tons (a decrease of 10.16%) compared to last week. [26] - **Demand Side**: In the pure - cotton yarn market, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline this week, and cotton yarn futures followed suit. In the spot market, the trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and the atmosphere was not as good as in previous peak seasons. The price of cotton yarn followed the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, and the price center shifted downward. The inventory of yarn decreased this week, but the decline rate slowed down. [26] Option Trading Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR was 0.7569, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 1.0303. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today, indicating obvious bearish sentiment in the market. It is recommended to wait and see. [40] Futures Trading Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton market will mostly move in a range - bound manner in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. [44] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic - International Price Difference**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic - international cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend. - **Mid - end Situation**: Information on the operating loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and full - cotton fabric mills, as well as the inventory days of yarn and fabric, is presented. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report provides data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory over different time periods. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton.
南华期货棉花棉纱周报:关注USDA报告调整-20250912
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 13:22
Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Attention to USDA Report Adjustment [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Jianing (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0020097) [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the inventory of old cotton is low, new cotton is mostly pre - sold, and the downstream maintains a de - stocking state, which supports cotton prices. However, the spinning profit of yarn mills is poor, and the hedging pressure is large under the expectation of a bumper harvest, which may limit the upside of cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may fluctuate within the previous range. Attention should be paid to the listing situation of new cotton and the adjustment of the USDA's September supply - demand forecast report [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market Supply - As of September 4, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.1%, the same as the same period last year (neutral) [2]. Import - In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons; the cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons; the cotton cloth import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.57% (neutral) [2]. Demand - In July, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.63% and a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In August, the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.539 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% (bearish) [2]. Inventory - As of the end of August, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in China was 2.374 million tons, a decrease of 714,200 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 622,000 tons. Among them, the commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July, and the industrial inventory was 892,300 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from the end of July (bullish) [2]. International Market US Supply - As of September 7, the boll - setting rate of cotton in the US was 97%, 1 percentage point behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the lint - opening rate was 40%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the overall good - to - excellent rate of cotton plants was 54%, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 14 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year (neutral) [2][3]. US Demand - From August 29 to September 4, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 upland cotton was 29,393 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47% and a 33% decrease from the four - week average; the shipment volume of upland cotton was 29,529 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% and a 2% decrease from the four - week average; the net signing volume of Pima cotton was 272 tons, and the shipment volume was 1,315 tons. There were no signings of 2026/2027 upland cotton and Pima cotton this week (bearish) [3]. Southeast Asian Supply - As of August 29, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.88 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.3% (bullish) [3]. Southeast Asian Demand - In August, the export volume of textile and clothing in Vietnam was 3.86 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%; the export volume of clothing in Bangladesh was 3.17 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, the export volume of clothing in India was 1.34 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export volume of textile and clothing in Pakistan was 1.68 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 10.37% and a year - on - year increase of 32.13% (bearish) [3]. Market Situation - This week, Zhengzhou cotton further tested the lower limit of the oscillation range. New cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be harvested about 10 days earlier than usual. Next week, there may be a new round of cooling in Xinjiang, and there may be precipitation in northern Xinjiang. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the lint - opening and harvesting progress of new cotton. Downstream, in the seasonal peak season, the overall load of gauze mills has been further increased, and the finished - product inventory has continued to decline. Recently, the profit of yarn mills has been repaired, but the amplitude is limited. Spinning enterprises in the inland still face great operating pressure, and the replenishment intensity of yarn mills is weak, with insufficient market confidence. Abroad, as of September 6, the harvesting progress of new cotton in Brazil has reached 86.9%. CONAB's latest forecast for the new - season cotton output in Brazil is 4.061 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase and a 9.7% year - on - year increase, with the expectation of a bumper harvest remaining unchanged. As of September 4, the cumulative signed export volume of US 2025/2026 cotton was 882,000 tons, reaching 33.74% of the annual expected export volume. Recently, India has accelerated the signing and import of US cotton under the extension of the import tariff exemption period, but the overall export progress of US cotton has been continuously slow [5]. Data Overview Futures Data - Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,860 yuan, down 140 yuan or 1% from the previous week; Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 13,820 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.86%; Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13,380 yuan, down 200 yuan or 1.47% [7]. Spot Data - CC Index 3128B was priced at 15,248 yuan, down 198 yuan or 1.28%; CC Index 2227B was priced at 13,379 yuan, down 159 yuan or 1.17%; CC Index 2129B was priced at 15,526 yuan, down 168 yuan or 1.07% [7]. Spread Data - The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan, down 20 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 440 yuan, up 80 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 480 yuan, down 60 yuan [8]. Import Price - FC Index M was priced at 13,371 yuan, up 96 yuan or 0.72%; FCY Index C32s was priced at 21,249 yuan, down 48 yuan or 0.23% [8]. Cotton Yarn Data - The futures price of cotton yarn closed at 19,845 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.6%; the spot price was 20,745 yuan, down 15 yuan or 0.07% [8].
棉花早报-20250821
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:18
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has significant differences in views on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for cotton will be prosperous. The 14,000 mark is crucial. If it holds above, there is upward momentum; if it falls below, there is further downside potential [5]. - The overall assessment of the cotton market is neutral, with both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year, while bearish factors include postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The previous day, Zhengzhou cotton quickly broke below the 14,000 mark and then recovered. There are large differences in views among the long and short sides on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's August 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,240 yuan, with a basis of 1,185 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, with an increase in net long positions, and the main trend is bullish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for "Today's Focus" is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption was 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrowing year - on - year fluctuation [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Forecast**: In the 2025/26 period, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for "Position Data" is provided in the report.
棉系周报:下游稳定为主,棉价震荡略偏强-20250819
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:09
Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Downstream Market Remains Stable, Cotton Prices Fluctuate Slightly Higher [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the US cotton market will fluctuate slightly higher due to a significant reduction in US cotton production and a high good - rate. The Zhengzhou cotton market is also expected to show a similar trend as the trading logic shifts to the demand side, with supply remaining tight and demand expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season [8][23][39] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no obvious macro - changes, the US cotton production is significantly reduced, and the good - rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, so the US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly higher [8] - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 10, the budding rate, boll - setting rate, and flocculation rate of US cotton are slower than last year and the five - year average, but the good - rate is 7 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: In the week ending August 7, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 54,900 tons, and 2026/27 contracts were 200 tons. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 32,300 tons [8] - **CFTC Position**: As of August 8, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 1,344 to 21,423, and the total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 892 to 43,505, equivalent to 990,000 tons [8] - **Brazil**: As of the week of August 9, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 39%, with a month - on - month increase of 9.3 percentage points and 16.3% slower than last year [8] - **India**: From July 31 to August 13, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - producing areas (93.6%) was 39.4mm, 22mm lower than the normal level and 5mm higher than last year [8] - **Global**: According to the latest August global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global cotton production in August is 25.39 million tons, a month - on - month reduction of 391,000 tons. The consumption is reduced by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory drops by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of mid - July, China's national commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of August 8, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.0067 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,400 tons [23] - **Demand Side**: Currently in the off - season, as of mid - July, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 882,100 tons, and the yarn and grey fabric inventory days were 28.36 days and 37.24 days respectively. As of August 14, the mainstream spinning mills' operating rate was 65.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.30% [23] - **Comprehensive View**: After the recent China - US talks, the short - term tariff impact may weaken, and domestic policies have a positive impact on commodities. The supply is tight, and whether to issue sliding - scale duty quotas will be a major factor. Demand is expected to improve, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly higher [23] Option Trading Strategy - The 120 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.7815, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.5520. It is recommended to sell put options [37] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly higher in the future [41] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [41] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating rate of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days are presented in the form of charts [48] - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory from 2015 to 2024 are presented in a table [50] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Data on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis of US upland cotton are presented in the form of charts [53]
南华期货棉花棉纱周报:棉价窄幅震荡,关注下游货-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton entered a narrow - range oscillation. The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the downstream sales have not recovered, resulting in insufficient driving force for cotton prices. In the short term, it may maintain an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking and the adjustment of the next week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of July 31, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - **Import**: In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and flat year - on - year. The cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, an increase of 4.08% month - on - month and 3.10% year - on - year. In July, the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and 0.06% year - on - year [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. Among them, the commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [1]. International Market - **US Supply**: As of August 3, the cotton budding rate in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 3 percentage points behind the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, flat month - on - month and 10 percentage points higher year - on - year [1][2]. - **US Demand**: From July 25 - 31, the net signing of US 24/25 - year - old upland cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment of upland cotton was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment of Pima cotton was 2,041 tons. 135,715 tons of cotton were carried over to the 25/26 season, with a net signing of 24,789 tons of 25/26 - year - old upland cotton and 1,202 tons of Pima cotton. The shipment for the 25/26 season has not started [2]. - **Southeast Asia Supply**: As of August 1, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.6 million hectares, a decrease of about 1.9% year - on - year [2]. - **Southeast Asia Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year. In June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year. India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year. Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [2]. Market Trends and Forecast - **Domestic**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing fast with good overall growth, but pest and disease problems in some cotton fields have intensified. The downstream spinning mills' profits are poor, with the overall load further declining. The fabric mill load has increased slightly, with a slight increase in sample - making orders, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products are slightly accumulating. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream restocking willingness is expected to improve marginally [4]. - **International**: As of August 2, Brazil's national cotton picking progress was about 29.7%, relatively slow. In India, the national cotton sowing progress is still slower than last year, and as of August 5, the cumulative rainfall of the southwest monsoon was 508mm, 3.4% higher than the annual average. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall on India's new cotton area [4].
棉系周报:需求变化不大,棉价震荡为主-20250809
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-09 07:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall cotton market shows a trend of slight strength in a volatile pattern. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend. The main influencing factors include the supply - demand relationship, policy environment, and weather conditions [8][22][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and little change in the fundamentals, the growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, but the excellent - good rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The excellent - good rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. The main producing areas are hot and dry, but the drought degree is low [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week ending July 31, the net cancellation of US cotton contracts was 0.39 tons, a decrease of 1.28 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative contract volume was 267.39 tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease. The shipment volume was 4.14 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative shipment volume was 253.82 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of August 1, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 2,841 to 22,767, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,574 to 44,397, equivalent to 1.01 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers on ICE increased to 50,228, equivalent to 1.14 million tons, a decrease of 2,640 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **India**: As of August 1, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year. The cotton planting target is 12.95 million hectares, and it is difficult to achieve this target. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 19mm, 45.5mm lower than the normal level and 51.9mm lower than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 6 was 493.1mm, 22.4mm higher than the normal level. This week, the precipitation in India decreased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in precipitation in central India [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending August 2, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 29.7%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the previous week, but 8% slower than the same period last year. The harvesting is slower than usual, mainly because the planting progress in Mato Grosso was affected by rain during the planting stage, resulting in a delay in harvesting. However, the cotton is reported to be in good growth condition, and it is expected that the quality of the cotton on the market will be good in the later stage. With the completion of corn and wheat harvesting, it is expected that the cotton supply on the market will accelerate [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Overall Situation**: The market's focus has gradually shifted to the demand side. The current commercial inventory on the supply side is still at a low level in the same period over the years, and the cotton supply may be slightly tight at the end of the year. On the demand side, as the off - season gradually transitions to the peak season, the current downstream demand shows no obvious changes. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the short term [22]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - July, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 28,740 tons compared to the previous period, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of July 24, the cumulative sales volume of cotton in the 2024 season was 6.44 million tons, 1.026 million tons higher than the five - year average. As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.1571 million tons, a decrease of 148,500 tons (a decrease of 6.44%) compared to the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.4111 million tons, a decrease of 132,200 tons (a decrease of 8.57%) compared to the previous week, and the commercial cotton in the inland areas was 410,600 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons (an increase of 0.39%) compared to the previous week [22]. - **Demand Side**: Currently in the off - season of market consumption, as of mid - July, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises in China was 882,100 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons compared to the previous period. The yarn inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 28.36 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 37.24 days. As of August 7, the operating load of spinning enterprises in the mainstream areas was 65.7%, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the previous week. The operating rate continued to decline. Although the cotton price decreased, the inland spinning enterprises still had no profit, and the situation of shutdown and reduction of shifts continued to increase. The profit of conventional yarn in Xinjiang was meager, and the operation was temporarily stable. The operating rate in the inland areas was 40 - 50%, and that in Xinjiang was maintained at 80 - 90% [22]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Trend Judgment**: On August 8, 2025, the 10 - day historical volatility of cotton was 10.1107, and the volatility decreased compared to the previous day. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: On August 8, 2025, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to sell put options [34][36]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend [40]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [40]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report provides the historical data of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 - month price difference trend [43][44]. - **Mid - end Situation**: It includes the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [47]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [49]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis of US cotton [52].
棉花月报:期现均有退意,郑棉阶段性高点或现-20250727
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-26 23:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, due to the commodity price increase caused by anti - involution, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Futures long - positions are shifting, and the confrontation between long and short positions in the main contract has eased. However, inland losses are severe, the consumption rate of commercial inventory has slowed down, and finished - product inventory is accumulating. In August, the cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends. - In the international market, the global cotton market remains under pressure as the USDA July report increased global supply. The excellent - good rate of U.S. cotton in the main producing areas is rising, and U.S. cotton exports are significantly affected. U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [1][26][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton first broke through and then fluctuated at a high level. Supported by tight supply and delayed issuance of import quotas, bulls actively attacked, pushing the price above 14,000 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 14,375 yuan/ton. Subsequently, bulls reduced positions, the basis was adjusted downwards, and the market entered a high - level oscillation. - In July, the international cotton market fluctuated widely. Uncertainty about trade agreements, high excellent - good rates of U.S. cotton, and weak exports suppressed cotton prices, but the low - level dollar and interest - rate cut expectations limited the downside space [4]. 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Commercial Inventory Consumption Slowdown - As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons (10.16%) from the end of June. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 242,000 tons, the inland inventory decreased by 36,400 tons, and the bonded inventory of imported cotton decreased by 9,000 tons. The decline in inventory continued to slow down, mainly due to significant losses of inland textile enterprises, reduced operating rates, and a significant contraction in cotton consumption [6]. 2.2 Decline in Downstream Operating Rates and Accumulation of Finished - Product Inventory - As of July 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises dropped from 51.2% at the end of June to 48.3%, and that of weaving enterprises dropped from 45.3% to 44.3%, reaching the lowest level in five years. The number of inland enterprises shutting down or suspending production increased. - By July 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises increased by 3.5 days compared to the end of June, and the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 0.8 days. After the increase in raw material prices, the acceptance of price increases for yarn and grey cloth by downstream sectors was low, leading to continuous accumulation of finished - product inventory [9][11]. 2.3 Both Spot and Futures Show Signs of Retreat - On July 16, Zhengzhou cotton started to rise rapidly, accompanied by an increase in positions and trading volume. It reached a phased high of 14,375 yuan/ton on July 18. During the futures price increase, the basis in eastern Xinjiang and inland warehouses did not rise but decreased, indicating a strong willingness of the spot market to sell. - After July 18, the futures market entered a high - level oscillation, the positions of the 2509 contract continued to decline, and long - position holders in the main contract showed a willingness to leave [14]. 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Increase in Global Supply and Ending Inventory - The USDA July cotton supply - demand report showed increases in both supply and demand. Global production increased by 1.43 million bales, mainly due to increases in China, the U.S., and Mexico. Global consumption increased by 365,000 bales. Global exports decreased by 100,000 bales. The beginning inventory for the 2025/26 season decreased by 510,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by 520,000 bales [18]. 3.2 Higher - than - Expected Planting Area and Rising Excellent - Good Rate - The USDA reported that the actual planted area of U.S. cotton in the new season was 10.12 million acres, a 10% decrease compared to 2024. The growth in the actual planted area compared to the March assessment was mainly due to an increase in the planted area of upland cotton in Texas. - As of July 20, the squaring rate of U.S. cotton was 71%, the boll - setting rate was 33%, and the excellent - good rate was 57%. The growth progress was behind the same period last year, but the excellent - good rate continued to rise [21]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors: Trade Negotiations and Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The change in U.S. tariff policies is still unclear, which may affect the import strategies of major textile and clothing exporting countries for U.S. cotton. The probability of an interest - rate cut in the U.S. in July was extremely low, but the expectation of a future interest - rate cut increased, and the trend of the dollar index will also affect cotton prices [25]. 4. Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - The domestic cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends in August, and attention should be paid to changes in positions on the futures market. - The international cotton market remains under pressure, and U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [26][27].
南华期货棉花棉纱周报:差有所修复,库存盾未变-20250725
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 10:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New cotton listing, domestic cotton inventory shortage will support cotton prices, but high - cost old cotton may enter the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is a high - yield expectation for the far - month, so the upside of cotton prices is limited [4] - Pay attention to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, off - season cotton inventory reduction speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market 3.1.1 Supply - As of July 17, the national new cotton sales rate was 95.8%, up 8.3 percentage points year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1] 3.1.2 Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1] 3.1.3 Demand - In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, a 4.08% increase from the previous month and a 3.10% increase year - on - year; textile and clothing export volume was 27.315 billion US dollars, a 4.22% increase from the previous month and a 0.13% decrease year - on - year [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - As of July 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, including 2.5424 million tons of commercial inventory (a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June) and 882,100 tons of industrial inventory (a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June) [1] 3.2 International Market 3.2.1 US Supply - As of July 20, the cotton budding rate in the US was 71%, 8% behind the same period last year and 4% behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7% behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the overall excellent rate of cotton plants was 57%, 3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 4 percentage points higher year - on - year [1] 3.2.2 US Demand - From July 11 - 17, the net signing of US 24/25 annual upland cotton was - 7,416 tons, a significant decrease compared with last week and the four - week average; the shipment of upland cotton was 41,912 tons, an 18% increase from the previous month and a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average; the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,247 tons, and the shipment was 1,134 tons; the signing of new - season upland cotton was 30,073 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 3,946 tons [1] 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Supply - As of July 18, the new - season cotton sown area in India was 9.86 million hectares, a decrease of about 3.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2.4 Southeast Asian Demand - In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, a 9.45% increase from the previous month and a 13.86% increase year - on - year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a 28.87% decrease from the previous month and a 6.31% decrease year - on - year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a 13.30% decrease from the previous month and a 1.23% increase year - on - year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a 0.60% decrease from the previous month and a 7.59% increase year - on - year [1] 3.3 Market Trends and Expectations - Last week, domestic cotton prices were strong, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened significantly. This week, some long - positions shifted, the near - month contract fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month contract was strong, with the spread quickly repaired [4] - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak boll - forming period. Although pests are more severe than last year, they are generally controllable, and the overall development progress is fast with good growth. The temperature in Xinjiang may drop next week, and the new - season output is still expected to be optimistic [4] - Mainland spinning mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, but Xinjiang spinning mills have a high operating rate, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Recently, the downstream finished product inventory has decreased slightly, but there is still some pressure [4] - As of the week of July 19, Brazil's cotton picking progress was about 16.7%, with faster progress in Bahia. The Brazilian industry association expects the new - season cotton output to increase by 7% year - on - year to 3.96 million tons [4] - India's overall cotton planting progress is behind schedule, and the monsoon rainfall in central and north - western India is significantly higher than the historical average. Attention should be paid to possible pest impacts under heavy rainfall [4]
棉花周报:资金博弈升级,郑棉加速上行-20250720
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 11:32
Report Title - "Fund Game Escalates, Zhengzhou Cotton Accelerates Upward - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [2] Core Views - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton broke through and rose this week. Without additional quotas or state reserve sales, the supply shortage intensified as the basis continued to rise. With rising cotton prices, yarn quotes also increased significantly. Short - term supply shortage is difficult to resolve without external supply increase, and price rise is a reasonable outcome. The upward trend depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation, and a significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - Internationally, the US initiated a new round of tariff hikes, and negotiations are ongoing. US cotton weekly export data remained weak, with this - year's signing declining seasonally and next - year's signing lackluster. US main growing areas, especially Texas, saw a drop in the drought index and a continuous rise in the good - to - excellent rate. US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose strongly this week, with a weekly increase of 2.77%. ICE cotton futures were strong, with a weekly increase of 2.24% [9]. Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 255 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index increased by 242 yuan/ton [14]. Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17]. Inventory Situation - In June, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 443,700 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 903,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,500 tons [25]. Downstream Inventory - In June, the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.71 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.61 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.58 days [30]. Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S increased by 160 yuan/ton, C32S by 240 yuan/ton, and JC40S by 280 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 276. There were 9,585 warehouse receipts and 223 valid forecasts, totaling 9,808 [38]. US Cotton Export - As of July 10, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 5,500 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 73,000 bales [41]. Market Outlook - Domestic: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation. A significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - International: US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term trading is recommended [52]