Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has significant differences in views on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for cotton will be prosperous. The 14,000 mark is crucial. If it holds above, there is upward momentum; if it falls below, there is further downside potential [5]. - The overall assessment of the cotton market is neutral, with both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year, while bearish factors include postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The previous day, Zhengzhou cotton quickly broke below the 14,000 mark and then recovered. There are large differences in views among the long and short sides on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's August 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,240 yuan, with a basis of 1,185 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, with an increase in net long positions, and the main trend is bullish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for "Today's Focus" is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption was 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrowing year - on - year fluctuation [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Forecast**: In the 2025/26 period, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for "Position Data" is provided in the report.

棉系周报：下游稳定为主 棉价震荡略偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton entered a narrow - range oscillation. The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the downstream sales have not recovered, resulting in insufficient driving force for cotton prices. In the short term, it may maintain an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking and the adjustment of the next week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of July 31, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - **Import**: In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and flat year - on - year. The cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, an increase of 4.08% month - on - month and 3.10% year - on - year. In July, the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and 0.06% year - on - year [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. Among them, the commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [1]. International Market - **US Supply**: As of August 3, the cotton budding rate in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 3 percentage points behind the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, flat month - on - month and 10 percentage points higher year - on - year [1][2]. - **US Demand**: From July 25 - 31, the net signing of US 24/25 - year - old upland cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment of upland cotton was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment of Pima cotton was 2,041 tons. 135,715 tons of cotton were carried over to the 25/26 season, with a net signing of 24,789 tons of 25/26 - year - old upland cotton and 1,202 tons of Pima cotton. The shipment for the 25/26 season has not started [2]. - **Southeast Asia Supply**: As of August 1, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.6 million hectares, a decrease of about 1.9% year - on - year [2]. - **Southeast Asia Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year. In June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year. India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year. Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [2]. Market Trends and Forecast - **Domestic**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing fast with good overall growth, but pest and disease problems in some cotton fields have intensified. The downstream spinning mills' profits are poor, with the overall load further declining. The fabric mill load has increased slightly, with a slight increase in sample - making orders, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products are slightly accumulating. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream restocking willingness is expected to improve marginally [4]. - **International**: As of August 2, Brazil's national cotton picking progress was about 29.7%, relatively slow. In India, the national cotton sowing progress is still slower than last year, and as of August 5, the cumulative rainfall of the southwest monsoon was 508mm, 3.4% higher than the annual average. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall on India's new cotton area [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall cotton market shows a trend of slight strength in a volatile pattern. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend. The main influencing factors include the supply - demand relationship, policy environment, and weather conditions [8][22][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and little change in the fundamentals, the growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, but the excellent - good rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The excellent - good rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. The main producing areas are hot and dry, but the drought degree is low [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week ending July 31, the net cancellation of US cotton contracts was 0.39 tons, a decrease of 1.28 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative contract volume was 267.39 tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease. The shipment volume was 4.14 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative shipment volume was 253.82 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of August 1, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 2,841 to 22,767, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,574 to 44,397, equivalent to 1.01 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers on ICE increased to 50,228, equivalent to 1.14 million tons, a decrease of 2,640 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **India**: As of August 1, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year. The cotton planting target is 12.95 million hectares, and it is difficult to achieve this target. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 19mm, 45.5mm lower than the normal level and 51.9mm lower than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 6 was 493.1mm, 22.4mm higher than the normal level. This week, the precipitation in India decreased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in precipitation in central India [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending August 2, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 29.7%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the previous week, but 8% slower than the same period last year. The harvesting is slower than usual, mainly because the planting progress in Mato Grosso was affected by rain during the planting stage, resulting in a delay in harvesting. However, the cotton is reported to be in good growth condition, and it is expected that the quality of the cotton on the market will be good in the later stage. With the completion of corn and wheat harvesting, it is expected that the cotton supply on the market will accelerate [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Overall Situation**: The market's focus has gradually shifted to the demand side. The current commercial inventory on the supply side is still at a low level in the same period over the years, and the cotton supply may be slightly tight at the end of the year. On the demand side, as the off - season gradually transitions to the peak season, the current downstream demand shows no obvious changes. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the short term [22]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - July, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 28,740 tons compared to the previous period, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of July 24, the cumulative sales volume of cotton in the 2024 season was 6.44 million tons, 1.026 million tons higher than the five - year average. As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.1571 million tons, a decrease of 148,500 tons (a decrease of 6.44%) compared to the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.4111 million tons, a decrease of 132,200 tons (a decrease of 8.57%) compared to the previous week, and the commercial cotton in the inland areas was 410,600 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons (an increase of 0.39%) compared to the previous week [22]. - **Demand Side**: Currently in the off - season of market consumption, as of mid - July, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises in China was 882,100 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons compared to the previous period. The yarn inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 28.36 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 37.24 days. As of August 7, the operating load of spinning enterprises in the mainstream areas was 65.7%, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the previous week. The operating rate continued to decline. Although the cotton price decreased, the inland spinning enterprises still had no profit, and the situation of shutdown and reduction of shifts continued to increase. The profit of conventional yarn in Xinjiang was meager, and the operation was temporarily stable. The operating rate in the inland areas was 40 - 50%, and that in Xinjiang was maintained at 80 - 90% [22]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Trend Judgment**: On August 8, 2025, the 10 - day historical volatility of cotton was 10.1107, and the volatility decreased compared to the previous day. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: On August 8, 2025, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to sell put options [34][36]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend [40]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [40]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report provides the historical data of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 - month price difference trend [43][44]. - **Mid - end Situation**: It includes the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [47]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [49]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis of US cotton [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, due to the commodity price increase caused by anti - involution, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Futures long - positions are shifting, and the confrontation between long and short positions in the main contract has eased. However, inland losses are severe, the consumption rate of commercial inventory has slowed down, and finished - product inventory is accumulating. In August, the cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends. - In the international market, the global cotton market remains under pressure as the USDA July report increased global supply. The excellent - good rate of U.S. cotton in the main producing areas is rising, and U.S. cotton exports are significantly affected. U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [1][26][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton first broke through and then fluctuated at a high level. Supported by tight supply and delayed issuance of import quotas, bulls actively attacked, pushing the price above 14,000 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 14,375 yuan/ton. Subsequently, bulls reduced positions, the basis was adjusted downwards, and the market entered a high - level oscillation. - In July, the international cotton market fluctuated widely. Uncertainty about trade agreements, high excellent - good rates of U.S. cotton, and weak exports suppressed cotton prices, but the low - level dollar and interest - rate cut expectations limited the downside space [4]. 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Commercial Inventory Consumption Slowdown - As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons (10.16%) from the end of June. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 242,000 tons, the inland inventory decreased by 36,400 tons, and the bonded inventory of imported cotton decreased by 9,000 tons. The decline in inventory continued to slow down, mainly due to significant losses of inland textile enterprises, reduced operating rates, and a significant contraction in cotton consumption [6]. 2.2 Decline in Downstream Operating Rates and Accumulation of Finished - Product Inventory - As of July 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises dropped from 51.2% at the end of June to 48.3%, and that of weaving enterprises dropped from 45.3% to 44.3%, reaching the lowest level in five years. The number of inland enterprises shutting down or suspending production increased. - By July 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises increased by 3.5 days compared to the end of June, and the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 0.8 days. After the increase in raw material prices, the acceptance of price increases for yarn and grey cloth by downstream sectors was low, leading to continuous accumulation of finished - product inventory [9][11]. 2.3 Both Spot and Futures Show Signs of Retreat - On July 16, Zhengzhou cotton started to rise rapidly, accompanied by an increase in positions and trading volume. It reached a phased high of 14,375 yuan/ton on July 18. During the futures price increase, the basis in eastern Xinjiang and inland warehouses did not rise but decreased, indicating a strong willingness of the spot market to sell. - After July 18, the futures market entered a high - level oscillation, the positions of the 2509 contract continued to decline, and long - position holders in the main contract showed a willingness to leave [14]. 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Increase in Global Supply and Ending Inventory - The USDA July cotton supply - demand report showed increases in both supply and demand. Global production increased by 1.43 million bales, mainly due to increases in China, the U.S., and Mexico. Global consumption increased by 365,000 bales. Global exports decreased by 100,000 bales. The beginning inventory for the 2025/26 season decreased by 510,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by 520,000 bales [18]. 3.2 Higher - than - Expected Planting Area and Rising Excellent - Good Rate - The USDA reported that the actual planted area of U.S. cotton in the new season was 10.12 million acres, a 10% decrease compared to 2024. The growth in the actual planted area compared to the March assessment was mainly due to an increase in the planted area of upland cotton in Texas. - As of July 20, the squaring rate of U.S. cotton was 71%, the boll - setting rate was 33%, and the excellent - good rate was 57%. The growth progress was behind the same period last year, but the excellent - good rate continued to rise [21]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors: Trade Negotiations and Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The change in U.S. tariff policies is still unclear, which may affect the import strategies of major textile and clothing exporting countries for U.S. cotton. The probability of an interest - rate cut in the U.S. in July was extremely low, but the expectation of a future interest - rate cut increased, and the trend of the dollar index will also affect cotton prices [25]. 4. Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - The domestic cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends in August, and attention should be paid to changes in positions on the futures market. - The international cotton market remains under pressure, and U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New cotton listing, domestic cotton inventory shortage will support cotton prices, but high - cost old cotton may enter the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is a high - yield expectation for the far - month, so the upside of cotton prices is limited [4] - Pay attention to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, off - season cotton inventory reduction speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market 3.1.1 Supply - As of July 17, the national new cotton sales rate was 95.8%, up 8.3 percentage points year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1] 3.1.2 Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1] 3.1.3 Demand - In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, a 4.08% increase from the previous month and a 3.10% increase year - on - year; textile and clothing export volume was 27.315 billion US dollars, a 4.22% increase from the previous month and a 0.13% decrease year - on - year [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - As of July 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, including 2.5424 million tons of commercial inventory (a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June) and 882,100 tons of industrial inventory (a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June) [1] 3.2 International Market 3.2.1 US Supply - As of July 20, the cotton budding rate in the US was 71%, 8% behind the same period last year and 4% behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7% behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the overall excellent rate of cotton plants was 57%, 3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 4 percentage points higher year - on - year [1] 3.2.2 US Demand - From July 11 - 17, the net signing of US 24/25 annual upland cotton was - 7,416 tons, a significant decrease compared with last week and the four - week average; the shipment of upland cotton was 41,912 tons, an 18% increase from the previous month and a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average; the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,247 tons, and the shipment was 1,134 tons; the signing of new - season upland cotton was 30,073 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 3,946 tons [1] 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Supply - As of July 18, the new - season cotton sown area in India was 9.86 million hectares, a decrease of about 3.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2.4 Southeast Asian Demand - In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, a 9.45% increase from the previous month and a 13.86% increase year - on - year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a 28.87% decrease from the previous month and a 6.31% decrease year - on - year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a 13.30% decrease from the previous month and a 1.23% increase year - on - year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a 0.60% decrease from the previous month and a 7.59% increase year - on - year [1] 3.3 Market Trends and Expectations - Last week, domestic cotton prices were strong, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened significantly. This week, some long - positions shifted, the near - month contract fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month contract was strong, with the spread quickly repaired [4] - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak boll - forming period. Although pests are more severe than last year, they are generally controllable, and the overall development progress is fast with good growth. The temperature in Xinjiang may drop next week, and the new - season output is still expected to be optimistic [4] - Mainland spinning mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, but Xinjiang spinning mills have a high operating rate, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Recently, the downstream finished product inventory has decreased slightly, but there is still some pressure [4] - As of the week of July 19, Brazil's cotton picking progress was about 16.7%, with faster progress in Bahia. The Brazilian industry association expects the new - season cotton output to increase by 7% year - on - year to 3.96 million tons [4] - India's overall cotton planting progress is behind schedule, and the monsoon rainfall in central and north - western India is significantly higher than the historical average. Attention should be paid to possible pest impacts under heavy rainfall [4]

Report Title - "Fund Game Escalates, Zhengzhou Cotton Accelerates Upward - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [2] Core Views - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton broke through and rose this week. Without additional quotas or state reserve sales, the supply shortage intensified as the basis continued to rise. With rising cotton prices, yarn quotes also increased significantly. Short - term supply shortage is difficult to resolve without external supply increase, and price rise is a reasonable outcome. The upward trend depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation, and a significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - Internationally, the US initiated a new round of tariff hikes, and negotiations are ongoing. US cotton weekly export data remained weak, with this - year's signing declining seasonally and next - year's signing lackluster. US main growing areas, especially Texas, saw a drop in the drought index and a continuous rise in the good - to - excellent rate. US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose strongly this week, with a weekly increase of 2.77%. ICE cotton futures were strong, with a weekly increase of 2.24% [9]. Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 255 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index increased by 242 yuan/ton [14]. Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17]. Inventory Situation - In June, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 443,700 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 903,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,500 tons [25]. Downstream Inventory - In June, the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.71 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.61 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.58 days [30]. Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S increased by 160 yuan/ton, C32S by 240 yuan/ton, and JC40S by 280 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 276. There were 9,585 warehouse receipts and 223 valid forecasts, totaling 9,808 [38]. US Cotton Export - As of July 10, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 5,500 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 73,000 bales [41]. Market Outlook - Domestic: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation. A significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - International: US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term trading is recommended [52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This month, cotton prices fluctuated and rose. The June USDA report was bullish, but the planting area report and growth conditions were bearish, causing U.S. cotton to fluctuate monthly [6]. - In the domestic market, the decrease in cotton imports and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory led to a relatively fast de - stocking speed, supporting the futures market to fluctuate strongly. However, downstream demand remained weak, and the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton is expected to keep Zhengzhou cotton prices bottoming out at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report raised this year's exports, reducing the ending inventory by 400,000 bales to 4.4 million bales; it also lowered the next - year's harvested area and yield, with the new - year's production decreasing by 500,000 bales to 14 million bales and the ending inventory decreasing by 400,000 bales to 4.3 million bales [6]. - As of June in the U.S., cotton sowing was completed. The USDA expected the 2025 U.S. cotton area to be 10.12 million acres, higher than expected. The weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the cotton quality rate remained at a normal level. Meanwhile, the net export sales of U.S. cotton this month were relatively low [6]. - In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory was continuously consumed, and imported cotton was scarce. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and under the situation of weak supply and demand, cotton prices were hard to improve [6]. - The new - season cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the soil moisture was acceptable. Domestic surveys showed that the national cotton area in 2025 was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 30, ICE Cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents per pound, up 0.23 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly increase of 0.34%. CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan per ton, up 465 points from the opening, with a monthly decrease of 3.50% [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Balance Sheet**: For the 2025/26 season, the expected harvested area was 8.19 million acres, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 acres; the expected yield per acre was 820 pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 12 pounds; the expected ending inventory was 4.3 million bales, a month - on - month decrease of 900,000 bales [12][14]. - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Sowing Progress**: As of the week of June 22, the sowing rate was 92%, the previous week was 85%, the same period last year was 93%, and the five - year average was 95%. The cotton quality rate was 47%, the previous week was 48%, and the same period last year was 56% [12][17]. - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Exports**: As of the week of June 19, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2024/2025 season were 27,000 bales, compared with 83,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 9.94 million bales, accounting for 86.43% of the June USDA report [12][21]. - **Domestic Demand - Spinning Mills**: As of June 26, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 71.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%. New orders for spinning mills were few, and orders generally lasted about 15 days [25]. - **Domestic Spinning Mill Inventory**: As of the week of June 26, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.2 days of storage. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.98% [28]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 111,600 tons (a decrease of 3.73%). As of June 26, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.00% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 412,000 tons [31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking There is no specific content provided for spread tracking other than the data sources and spread types.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern this week, and the market will maintain an interval oscillation pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather in cotton - producing areas on new cotton output and changes in the macro - policy aspect [3][36] - The cotton textile industry is facing dual pressures of insufficient demand and high costs, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [11][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Basic Data of Domestic and Foreign Cotton Markets - **One - week Data Overview**: As of June 20, the CRB commodity price index rose to 312.53 points, a 0.85% increase from June 13. The ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound, a 1.68% decline. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 09 closed at 13,495 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from June 13, with a cumulative decrease of 0.8 million lots in positions to 5.25 million lots [2][10][35] - **Demand - side Situation**: The cotton yarn futures market showed a high - level oscillation pattern. The downstream orders were weak, and enterprises generally adopted a de - inventory strategy. The market operating rate remained low, and small and medium - sized textile enterprises faced great operating pressure [11][34] Part 2: Domestic Market Basic Situation - **Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends**: On June 20, the raw material price center rose compared with June 13, while the yarn price center showed mixed changes, and the foreign yarn price remained unchanged. The RMB - denominated foreign yarn price increased [15][18][22] - **Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices vs. International Cotton Price Index (Tax - included)**: On June 20, the difference between the domestic cotton spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty expanded, while the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty narrowed [23] - **Domestic and Foreign Cotton and Yarn Price Differences**: On June 20, the domestic - foreign yarn price difference expanded, and the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and ICE cotton was 2,967 yuan/ton (without considering the trade premium) [24][27] Part 3: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of June 20, the total of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 466,000 tons, a decrease from June 13 [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis**: On June 20, the futures - spot price difference of Zhengzhou cotton expanded compared with June 13 [31] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and China's economy continued to recover. In terms of supply, the cotton growth in Xinjiang was good, but attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather. In terms of demand, it was in the off - season, and the industry faced dual pressures. Technically, the technical indicators were strong [32][33][38] Part 4: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From June 6 - 12, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton increased by 38% compared with the previous week. The net signing of Pima cotton was - 431 tons. New - year contracts were also signed. As of June 10, the CFTC fund's net long position decreased by 5,999 lots compared with the previous week [41][43] - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On June 20, the ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound compared with June 13, and the technical indicators were weak [44] Part 5: Operation Suggestions - The Zhengzhou cotton price should be treated with an oscillatory view. Downstream textile enterprises can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton [46]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Weakening Consumption, Lackluster Rebound of Zhengzhou Cotton - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" and was released on June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Domestically, this week Zhengzhou cotton oscillated within a narrow range, and the market trend was indecisive. The basis in Xinjiang continued to strengthen, with a supply shortage in some areas. Consumption pressure remained high, with a decline in the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises, an accumulation of finished - product inventories, and a lack of new orders. The impact of high - temperature forecasts in southern Xinjiang on cotton growth was expected to be limited. Internationally, in the short term, cotton prices were affected by oil price fluctuations due to the international situation. The war situation would continue to disrupt the market. Fundamentally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Precipitation increased recently, and the drought index in most areas dropped to 0. There were few catalysts for U.S. cotton. China's procurement of U.S. cotton was at a standstill. Overall, there were no major fundamental contradictions, and prices might fluctuate following macro - events [52] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated within a narrow range this week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%. ICE cotton futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [11] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 59 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 37 yuan/ton [15] Cotton Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17] Cotton Inventory Situation - In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [26] Downstream Inventory Situation - In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [31] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices remained stable. The prices of OE 10s, Combed 32s, and Combed 40s cotton yarns were the same as last week [34] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 161. There were 10,607 warehouse receipts and 308 valid forecasts, totaling 10,915 [38] U.S. Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of June 5, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current market year increased by 60,200 bales, and the net sales for the next market year were 36,100 bales [41] U.S. Weather Situation - The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Recently, precipitation increased in the main producing areas, and the drought index in most areas except Texas and Arizona dropped to 0 [52] Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, the market was in a stalemate, with supply shortages in some areas and high consumption pressure. The impact of high - temperature forecasts on cotton growth needed further monitoring. Internationally, the market was affected by the international situation and war. Fundamentally, U.S. cotton lacked catalysts, and China's procurement was at a standstill. Overall, prices might fluctuate with macro - events [52]