1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have not changed significantly, and cotton prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is likely to move in a range, while the domestic cotton market is expected to show a slightly stronger trend in the short term [1][8][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have not changed much, and it is expected to move in a range. As of the week of March 12, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0482 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The weekly deliverable ratio was 79.9%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year-on-year [8] - **US Cotton Growth Situation**: As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0482 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.9602 million tons, with an inspection progress of 100.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 88,000 tons, with an inspection progress of 104.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [8] - **US Cotton Production Area Weather Situation**: As of March 10, the drought index in the main US cotton production areas (93.0%) was 229, a week-on-week decrease of 3 and a year-on-year increase of 97; the drought index in Texas was 253, a week-on-week decrease of 1 and a year-on-year increase of 65. The drought index in the main US cotton production areas remained basically stable, and the drought levels in the main production areas and Texas were still at relatively high levels in recent years. According to the quarterly outlook, the drought in the main US cotton production areas will continue from March to May, intensify in the central and western regions, and ease in the eastern production areas [8] - **US Cotton Sales Situation**: As of the week of March 12, the weekly contract volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 44,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22% and a 30% decrease from the average level of the previous four weeks; among them, Vietnam signed 17,200 tons and Turkey signed 6,300 tons. The weekly contract volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 27,700 tons, with China signing 11,000 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 62,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 26% and an 8% increase from the average level of the previous four weeks, with Vietnam shipping 22,100 tons and Pakistan shipping 8,300 tons [8] - **CFTC**: As of March 6, the number of unpriced contracts of the seller on the ON - CALL 2605 contract decreased by 3,239 to 17,576, a decrease of 70,000 tons week-on-week. The total number of unpriced contracts of the seller in the 2025/26 season decreased by 1,019 to 32,083, equivalent to 730,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons week-on-week. The total number of unpriced contracts of the seller on ICE increased to 56,853, equivalent to 1.29 million tons, an increase of 1,475 contracts or 30,000 tons week-on-week [8] - **India**: According to the latest report of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), as of February 28, 2026, compared with the previous month, the estimated cotton balance sheet for the 2025/26 season showed an increase of 60,000 tons in production, 170,000 tons in domestic demand, a decrease of 50,000 tons in imports, and a decrease of 160,000 tons in ending inventory. Compared with the previous year, the beginning inventory increased by 360,000 tons, production increased by 140,000 tons, imports increased by 100,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 20,000 tons, exports decreased by 50,000 tons, and ending inventory increased by 640,000 tons [8] - **Global**: According to the latest March global cotton production and sales forecast of the USDA, the global cotton production in March was 26.34 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 250,000 tons, with China's production increasing by 100,000 tons to 7.72 million tons; total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.84 million tons; ending inventory increased by 280,000 tons to 16.63 million tons [8] 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of 24:00 on March 11, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises was 33,290,304 bales, totaling 7,514,731 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.03%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,128,929 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 5.2078 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 59,800 tons (a decrease of 1.14%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.0151 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 85,400 tons (a decrease of 2.08%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 636,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,200 tons (an increase of 1.14%) [26] - **Demand Side**: As of March 19, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.683 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.767 million tons and an increase of 2.16 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 76%, a week-on-week increase of 3.83%. This week, the spinning mills in the inland area continued to resume production, with an operating rate of 60 - 70% in the inland area and over 90% in Xinjiang. As of March 12, the yarn inventory of spinning mills in major areas was 34.8 days, a week-on-week increase of 2.35%. This week, the operating rate of spinning mills increased, but new orders for spinning mills were limited, yarn sales were slow, and finished product inventory accumulated, with an inventory of 18 - 25 days for inland enterprises and 40 - 45 days for enterprises in Xinjiang [26] - **Comprehensive View**: Currently, the market contradictions are not significant, the demand side performs well, and the market has certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". At present, the cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The fundamentals of cotton have certain support [26] 3.3 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - scale duty quotas this time has a relatively small impact on domestic supply. However, the issuance time is very early, leaving room for future policies. It is expected that the issuance of these quotas will likely benefit US cotton, narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, and the Zhengzhou cotton price may also follow the upward trend of US cotton. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen, and cotton prices have been affected by the overall market atmosphere, but considering the current market support, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited [38] - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected that the US cotton price will likely fluctuate in a range in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips and not to chase high prices [38] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [38] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [38] 3.4 Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: The chart shows the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, the price difference under 1% tariff, the domestic cotton price, and the imported cotton price under 1% tariff from 2020 to 2023 [41] - **9 - 1 Spread Trend**: The chart shows the 9 - 1 spread trends of different years, such as CF1909 - 2001, CF2009 - 2101, etc. [42] - **Cotton Inventory**: The table shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton industrial inventory, reserve inventory, and other aspects from 2015 to 2024 [44] - **Basis**: The charts show the basis of cotton in different months (January, May, September), the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton, and the basis between the spot price of C32S cotton yarn and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened again after fluctuations this week. The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran initially suppressed Zhengzhou cotton, but with the weakening of macro - impacts, it chose to rise. Strong export data supports demand, and yarn prices also increased after the rise in cotton prices, indicating a stable cotton market. Attention should be paid to the planting area in major production areas, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas has limited short - term negative impact. The internal - external price difference is expected to narrow [53]. - Internationally, the global cotton production forecast has been raised by over 1.1 million bales due to increased planting in Brazil and improved yields in China, partially offset by reduced production in Argentina. Global consumption is down 140,000 bales, with weak consumption in many countries partially offset by increased consumption in China. The global inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased by 1 percentage point to 64%, showing a pattern of stable supply - demand in US cotton, increased supply and weakening demand globally, and a slight increase in inventory pressure. The rumor of China issuing import quotas has boosted the US cotton market, and official confirmation is awaited [53]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on range - band trading [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton strengthened slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.78%. ICE cotton rebounded, with a weekly increase of 2.88% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 243 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 265 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import - In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [19]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory - In the second half of February, the commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, and the commercial inventory continued to decline [21]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory - In February, the yarn inventory was 21.45 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.87 days. The grey cloth inventory was 33.24 days, a year - on - year increase of 3.81 days [29]. 3.1.6 Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of 10 - count airflow - spun cotton yarn increased by 70 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn increased by 70 yuan/ton [34]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 53. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,325, and the valid forecasts were 446, totaling 12,771 [39]. 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase - Not elaborated in depth in the report, only the price data of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase is presented [42][43]. 3.1.9 US Cotton Export - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of March 5th, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 253,200 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 36,600 bales [47]. 3.1.10 US Weather - The drought situation in the US is as follows: the area with abnormally dry conditions (D0) accounts for 21.0%, moderate drought (D1) accounts for 25.3%, severe drought (D2) accounts for 14.8%, extreme drought (D3) accounts for 5.5%, exceptional drought (D4) accounts for 0.3%, and the total drought - affected area (D1 - D4) accounts for 45.9% [50]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened after fluctuations. The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran initially suppressed the price, but with the weakening of macro - impacts, it chose to rise. Strong export data supports demand, and yarn prices increased. Attention should be paid to the planting area in major production areas, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas has limited short - term negative impact. The internal - external price difference is expected to narrow [53]. - Internationally, the global cotton production forecast has been raised, consumption has decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased. The rumor of China issuing import quotas has boosted the US cotton market, and official confirmation is awaited [53]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on range - band trading [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows a short - term slightly bullish and oscillating trend. The 1 - 2 month textile exports are good, entering the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports [4]. - The ICAC predicts that the global cotton production in 2026/27 will be 2480 million tons, a 4.0% decrease compared to 2025/26, mainly due to the decline in Brazil and the US; consumption will be 2500 million tons, a 0.7% decrease, remaining relatively stable as the decrease in Chinese consumption is offset by the growth in India and Vietnam [13]. - The USDA's February report shows that in the 2025/26 year, the global cotton production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The ICAC predicts that the global cotton consumption in 2026/27 will be 2500 million tons and production will be 2480 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. The USDA's February report shows that in the 2025/26 year, the production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%; cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/26 year shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons. Overall, it is bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,733, and the basis is 1413 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/26 year shows an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The textile exports from January to February are good. Currently, it is the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. The cotton market has a short - term slightly bullish and oscillating trend [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenishment occurred before the Spring Festival. The tariff on exports to the US has been reduced. Sino - US relations have eased. The traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" has arrived [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton has been listed. Currently, it is the traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/26 year, the global cotton production increased by 1% year - on - year to 2609.6 million tons, consumption decreased by 0% year - on - year to 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 2% year - on - year to 1635.3 million tons [11][12]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2026/27 year, the global cotton production is expected to be 2480 million tons, a 4.0% decrease; consumption is 2500 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; the ending inventory is 1660 million tons, a 1.0% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.40%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the trade volume is 960 million tons, a 1.0% decrease; the yield per unit area is 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In the 2025/26 year, the production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [15]. 3.5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton continued to move sideways, digesting the previous gains. In the short - term, the fundamental factors are favorable, and the futures price is slightly bullish with oscillations. Cotton is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term [5][6]. - The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" for cotton have arrived. The US tariffs have been lowered, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial for textile exports [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of Xinjiang cotton planting area by over 10% in 2026, pre - holiday downstream restocking, reduced export tariffs to the US, improved Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" peak seasons. Negative factors include the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Hints No relevant information provided. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Data**: According to ICAC, the global cotton consumption in 2026/27 is expected to be 25 million tons, and the output is 24.8 million tons. The output in 2026/27 is expected to decrease by 4% mainly due to the reduction in Brazil and the US. Consumption remains relatively stable, with the decrease in Chinese consumption offset by the growth in India and Vietnam. The global cotton ending inventory is expected to decline by 1%, and China's inventory is expected to drop by 5% to 7.7 million tons [5][15]. - **USDA February Report**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton output is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In China, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [5]. - **Customs Data**: In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%; cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [5]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market has certain fundamental support, and the cotton price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. The US cotton market is expected to be range - bound, while the Zhengzhou cotton may also have a short - term range - bound trend. Traders can consider building long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton but should avoid chasing high prices. For options, it is recommended to wait and see, and for arbitrage, also wait and see [29][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Domestic and International Market Analysis 3.1.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have changed little, and it is expected to be range - bound. As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0387 million tons, accounting for 100.3% of the estimated annual US cotton production, a 4% year - on - year decline. The weekly deliverable ratio was 71.2%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year - on - year. The final inspection volume is expected to be around 3.05 - 3.07 million tons [9] - **US Cotton Growing Conditions**: As of March 3, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and the drought level in the main producing areas and Texas was at a relatively high level in recent years. According to the quarterly outlook, the drought in the main US cotton - producing areas will continue from March to May, intensify in the central - western regions, and ease in the eastern regions [9] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of February 26, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,100 tons, a 41% weekly decrease and a 50% decrease compared with the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 64,000 tons, a 46% weekly increase and a 43% increase compared with the average of the previous four weeks [9] - **CFTC Data**: As of February 27, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2605 contract increased by 1,563 to 20,815, an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 2025/26 season increased by 2,667 to 35,139, equivalent to 800,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with the previous week [9] - **Brazil**: Reports of excessive rainfall in the main producing state of Mato Grosso were exaggerated. Although many private forecasting agencies' production estimates are slightly lower than the official CONAB's 2.6232 million tons in the February report, nearly 70% of the crops were planted within the ideal sowing window [9] - **Global Situation**: According to the latest USDA February global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in February was 26.09 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. China's total production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.62 million tons. The total consumption was adjusted down by 45,000 tons to 25.84 million tons, and the ending inventory was adjusted up by 140,000 tons to 16.35 million tons [8][9] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of the week of March 5, the operating rate of national ginneries continued to decline to 5.78%, a slight increase of 0.29% compared with before the festival. As of March 4, 2026, the cumulative public inspection was 33,155,737 bales, totaling 7,484,308 tons, a 12.79% year - on - year increase. As of February 27, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2676 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 87,800 tons (a 1.64% decrease) [29] - **Demand Side**: As of February 27, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.146 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.846 million tons and an increase of 2.309 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 5, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 73.2%, a 13.31% increase compared with the previous week [29] - **Overall Situation**: The current market contradictions are not significant. With the resumption of work in the downstream, the market has certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is still fast, at a high level in the same period of previous years. The cotton fundamentals have certain support, but considering that the previous positive factors have been reflected, it is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will be range - bound in the short term [29] 3.1.3 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the US cotton will be range - bound in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton has certain fundamental support, and traders can consider building long positions on dips but should not chase high prices [42] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [42] - **Options**: Wait and see [41] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The document shows the historical data of the internal and external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend [45][46] - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton industrial inventory, reserve inventory, and other aspects [48] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It shows the basis data of cotton in different months and the basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zhengzhou Cotton shows short - term concentrated bullish factors, and the market needs adjustment. In terms of fundamentals, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are approaching, US tariffs are lowered, and Sino - US relations are easing, which is beneficial for textile exports. Cotton will fluctuate and adjust, with the main 05 contract oscillating in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%; and imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The overall situation is bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,591, and the basis is 1336 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China predicts an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons for the 2025/2026 season in February, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but still considered bullish [6]. - **Bullish Factors**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenished stocks before the Spring Festival. Tariffs on exports to the US have been reduced. Sino - US relations are easing. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders are decreasing, and inventory is increasing. A large amount of new cotton is on the market. Currently, it is the traditional off - season for consumption [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In February, the total global cotton output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% or 286,000 tons; consumption is 25.847 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0% or 49,000 tons; the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% or 295,000 tons [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025)**: In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the output is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 7.88 million tons, the sown area is 2.979 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2229 kg/ha, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term bullish factors of Zhengzhou cotton are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. In terms of fundamentals, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced to some extent, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton investors with previous long positions can take profits and reduce their holdings, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the production in the 2025/2026 season is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%; and imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,713 yuan, and the basis is 1318 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory for the 2025/2026 season in February to be 8.29 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The short - term bullish factors of Zhengzhou cotton are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced to some extent, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton investors with previous long positions can take profits and reduce their holdings, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Bullish Factors**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories before the Spring Festival. The export tariffs to the US have been reduced. Sino - US relations have eased. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton has been put on the market. Currently, it is the traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. There are different changes in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory in various countries [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 3041.385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 2539.956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 1583.577 million tons, the import volume is 971.442 million tons, the consumption is 2500.778 million tons, the export volume is 971.412 million tons, the ending inventory is 1622.785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - **Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 7.88 million tons, the sown area is 2.979 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2229 kg/ha, the production is 6.64 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the report

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to result in a reduction of over 10%. The USDA February report shows that for the 25/26 cotton season, the global production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. The rural department's February forecast for the 25/26 season in China indicates a production of 664 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 760 million tons, and an ending inventory of 829 million tons. The overall situation is considered bullish. The basis is positive, with the spot price of 3128b cotton having a basis of 949 (for the 05 contract) against the futures price, indicating a premium over the futures. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it, also suggesting a bullish trend. The main positions are bullish, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear. The US cotton has rebounded from the bottom, and Zhengzhou cotton has reached a new short - term high after the Spring Festival. With the reduction of US tariffs and the improvement of Sino - US relations, textile exports are expected to benefit. However, due to the rapid short - term rise of cotton prices, investors with existing long positions are advised to take profits and reduce positions, and maintain a cautious and bullish trading strategy [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - Bullish factors include the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area with an expected reduction of over 10%, pre - holiday downstream restocking, the reduction of export tariffs to the US, and the improvement of Sino - US relations [5]. - Bearish factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's February report on global cotton supply and demand, the total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. China's production is expected to be 762 million tons, consumption is 849.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 791.7 million tons. Other major cotton - producing countries such as India, the US, and Brazil also have corresponding production, consumption, and inventory data [9][10]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: The rural department's February forecast for the 25/26 season in China shows a production of 664 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 760 million tons, and an ending inventory of 829 million tons. In December, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. Cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and棉纱 imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [4]. 5. Position Data - The main positions in the cotton market are bullish, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Zheng Cotton Turns to Narrow - Range Fluctuation, Funds Flow Out Before the Festival - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report - **Report Date**: February 6, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Domestically, Zheng Cotton showed significantly reduced volatility and narrow - range fluctuations this week. With new cotton processing nearing completion, supply pressure is high. However, yarn prices remained stable or increased while cotton prices fell, and the downstream industry faced limited pressure. Zheng Cotton is expected to maintain short - term fluctuations with a limited range, and it's advisable to exit the market before the Spring Festival [56]. - Internationally, U.S. cotton export data is strong, with stable old - crop exports and record - high new - crop exports. Consumption has overall resilience. But macro factors may have some suppression, such as a weak global economy and a strong U.S. dollar. U.S. cotton is in a weak - range fluctuation, but there is strong support around 60 cents per pound, and low prices may trigger purchases [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Zheng Cotton had a slight weekly decline of 0.61%, and ICE cotton had a weekly decline of 2.09% [12]. - **Spot Prices**: The cotton price index declined this week. The 3128 index dropped 171 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index dropped 158 yuan/ton [17]. - **Import Situation**: In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [22]. - **Inventory Situation**: - In the first half of January, the commercial cotton inventory was 5.8623 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory - building phase [27]. - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [32]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S remained flat, the price of C32S increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of JC40S remained flat [37]. - **Zhengshang Institute Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 410. There were 10,500 warehouse receipts and 1,283 effective forecasts, totaling 11,783 [42]. - **U.S. Cotton Export Situation**: As of January 29, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 248,300 bales, and the net sales in the next year were 114,900 bales [50]. - **U.S. Weather Situation**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 37.4%, with different drought - level percentages in each category [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: Zheng Cotton will maintain short - term fluctuations, and it's advisable to exit the market before the Spring Festival due to high supply pressure but limited downstream pressure [56]. - **International Market**: U.S. cotton will maintain a weak - range fluctuation, but there is strong support around 60 cents per pound, and low prices may trigger purchases despite macro suppression [56].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Overall Changes Are Minimal, Cotton Prices Range-bound [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the cotton market has shown minimal changes, with cotton prices expected to range-bound. The international market anticipates weak and fluctuating trends in US cotton, while the domestic market has certain fundamental support but is also likely to experience range-bound movements in the short term [1][8][28] Summary of Each Section Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The signing situation is average, and the US cotton is expected to trend weakly with fluctuations [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton reached 2.9618 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 6% slower year-on-year. The inspection progress is steadily advancing but slower compared to the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has significantly rebounded, while the quarterly deliverable ratio remains flat [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% weekly increase but a 5% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 53,400 tons, a 9% weekly decrease but a 25% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC**: As of January 30, the number of unsold contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 4,319 to 10,116, a reduction of 100,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unsold contracts in the 2025/26 season decreased by 3,672 to 34,040, equivalent to 770,000 tons, a reduction of 80,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **Brazil**: As of January 31, the cotton planting in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 78.6% complete, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new cotton market volume in Pakistan's 2025/26 season reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases increased, and the unsold inventory decreased due to the rebound in domestic yarn consumption [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest January global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the changes are minimal. The global cotton production in January was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The total production in the US decreased by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons. The total consumption increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons. The ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: New cotton picking is mostly finished, and Xinjiang's ginning factories are in the final stage of processing. As of February 4, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of cotton was 7.340445 million tons, a 14.86% year - on - year increase. As of January 30, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.6487 million tons, a 49,400 - ton (0.87%) decrease from the previous week [28]. - **Demand Side**: The market sales are good, with the cumulative sales of lint cotton as of January 29 reaching 4.772 million tons, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. As of February 5, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 60.5%, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week. The raw material inventory of textile enterprises has been slightly adjusted [28]. - **Comprehensive View**: The current market contradictions are not significant. Although the cotton sales progress is fast, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to have minimal changes. The cotton price has certain fundamental support but is likely to range - bound in the short term [28] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The current market contradictions are not significant. The previous expectation of a decrease in the new - season cotton planting area has been reflected in the market. The demand side is currently strong, but considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to change minimally. The cotton price has certain fundamental support but is likely to range - bound in the short term [40]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [41]. - **Unilateral Trading**: In the short term, US cotton is expected to trend weakly with fluctuations, while Zhengzhou cotton is likely to range - bound [42]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Charts showing the internal and external cotton price difference and the price difference trend between September and January contracts are provided [45][46]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are presented [48]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Charts of the spot - futures basis of cotton, including the basis of different contract months, are provided [51]