量化大势研判 202603 3 月核心推荐预期成长风格 glmszqdatemark 执业证书： S0590525110059 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn 相关研究 2026 年 03 月 04 日 [Table_Author] 分析师 叶尔乐 为了解决风格系统化轮动难题，我们开启了自下而上的量化大势研判探究。所谓 风格是资产本身的内在属性，内嵌于其产业生命周期的变化中，存在五种风格阶 段：外延成长、质量成长、质量红利、价值红利、破产价值。全局比较下来的优 势资产其特征属性，即为未来市场的主流风格。可通过 g>ROE>D 的基本优先级 进行考察，分析"有没有（好资产）"和"（好资产）贵不贵"进行优势资产的比 较判断，最后聚焦当下最具有优势的细分板块。 预期增速资产优势差继续回升，实际增速资产优势差变化不大，继续核心推荐预 期成长风格，景气类成长有待财报验证。△gf 继续保持扩张，其主要来自 Top 组 的上升，高预期增速板块依然有表现机会；△g 同样扩张但变化不大，景气类策略 虽缺乏基本面动量优势，看后续财报披露下是否会再次开启上升趋势。 ROE 的优势差回升但幅度走弱，拥挤度较低下，可挑选 ...

证券日报网讯 2月24日，浩物股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年2月13日，公司股东 户数为24832户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Dezhong Automobile and its responsible parties have been disciplined for information disclosure violations by the Beijing Stock Exchange [1][4] - The company disclosed corrections to its financial data for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, including an increase in net profit attributable to the parent company by 770,000 yuan (an increase of 4.39%) for 2023, an increase of 120,000 yuan (an increase of 58.69%) for 2024, and a decrease in total profit of 870,000 yuan (a decrease of 97.70%) for the first half of 2025 [1][4] - The Beijing Stock Exchange has decided to issue a public reprimand to Dezhong Automobile, its chairman and general manager Duan Kunliang, and the board secretary and financial director Yi Jianbo, which will be recorded in the integrity archives of the securities and futures market [4] Group 2 - Dezhong Automobile is expected to report a net profit loss of 30 million to 37 million yuan for the entire year of 2025, representing a year-on-year change of -754.00% to -630.27% [4] - The company attributes this performance change to several factors, including intensified price competition in the domestic automotive industry, a decrease in overall gross margin, increased one-time shutdown costs due to the strategic adjustment of closing some fuel vehicle 4S stores, and an increase in inventory impairment provisions due to lower net realizable value of inventory [4] - As of the latest report, Dezhong Automobile's stock price is 6.67 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 1.193 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hebei Guohe Investment Group Co., Ltd. has been suspended from participating in military procurement activities due to alleged violations of trust in procurement activities [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Hebei Guohe Investment Group Co., Ltd. was established in April 2010 and is funded by the Hebei State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [2] - The company is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kailuan Group Co., Ltd. and was officially managed by the group in December 2014 [2] - As of 2020, the company underwent a merger and reorganization, managing 64 subordinate institutions with an annual revenue of 40 billion yuan and a registered capital of 1.8977 billion yuan [2] - The company employs over 1,400 staff and operates in various sectors including automotive sales and services, international and domestic trade of bulk commodities, IT, and hotel catering [2] Group 2: Legal and Financial Issues - The legal representative of Hebei Guohe Investment Group is Yao Wei, and the registered capital is approximately 189.78 million yuan [3] - On January 22, 2026, the company was listed as an executed party with an execution target of approximately 122.82 million yuan [3]

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]

天眼查显示，近日，武冈市铭益汽车销售服务有限公司成立，法定代表人为成建全，注册资本300万人 民币，由邵阳新金泽汽车销售有限公司全资持股。 来源：市场资讯 经营范围含汽车零配件零售;汽车拖车、求援、清障服务;汽车装饰用品销售;新能源汽车电附件销售;新 能源汽车整车销售;汽车销售;机动车充电销售;机动车鉴定评估;二手车经纪;机动车修理和维护;电车销售; 摩托车及零配件零售;小微型客车租赁经营服务;充电桩销售;新能源汽车换电设施销售;电动汽车充电基 础设施运营;集中式快速充电站;信息咨询服务（不含许可类信息咨询服务）（除依法须经批准的项目 外，自主开展法律法规未禁止、未限制的经营活动） 企业名称武冈市铭益汽车销售服务有限公司法定代表人成建全注册资本300万人民币国标行业居民服 务、修理和其他服务业>机动车、电子产品和日用产品修理业>其他日用产品修理业地址湖南省邵阳市 武冈市水西门街道办事处新东路以北D块企业类型有限责任公司（非自然人投资或控股的法人独资）营 业期限2026-2-2至无固定期限登记机关武冈市市场监督管理局 序号股东名称持股比例1邵阳新金泽汽车销售有限公司100% ...

证券日报网讯1月27日，国机汽车（600335）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司管理层高度重视 市值管理工作，先后制定《市值管理制度》、发布估值提升计划，完成市值管理顶层设计，构建以企业 价值为核心的市值管理体系，推动市值管理"工具箱"各项举措落实落地。未来，公司将聚焦主业，提升 经营质效，持续增强核心竞争力；同时加强与投资者沟通交流，积极向市场传递发展信心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company announced the resignation of its executive vice president, Mo Tonglei, due to work adjustments, while he will continue to serve as a board member [1] Group 1 - Mo Tonglei submitted a written resignation report to the board of directors on January 21 [1] - He applied to resign from his positions as executive vice president and various roles in investment decision-making committees of affiliated companies [1] - The resignation will take effect upon delivery to the board of directors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haowu Co., Ltd., expects a significant decline in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, projecting an income between 2.78 billion to 2.88 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 19.88% to 22.66% [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 42 million to 54 million yuan, a notable recovery from a loss of 20.06 million yuan in the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - Company Guojia Automobile announced that as of December 31, 2025, it has repurchased approximately 2.14 million shares through centralized bidding, accounting for 0.14% of the total share capital [1] - The highest purchase price for the repurchased shares was 6.19 yuan per share, while the lowest was 5.97 yuan per share [1] - The total amount of funds spent on the share repurchase was approximately 13.01 million yuan [1]