大摩闭门会：原材料、金融、交运行业更新 260114 航空业正处于上行周期，供给侧飞机交付延迟导致供给紧张，需求侧中 国航空出行渗透率提升空间大。政策鼓励文旅消费和基建投入增加，出 境游和入境游恢复强劲，都将支撑航空业发展。 预计 2026 年光伏组件和电池出口大幅增加，导致上半年电解铝市场淡 季不淡。由于没有新增产能叠加抢出口因素，整体需求旺盛，供需平衡 紧张。碳酸锂市场受环保检查和复产推迟影响，期货价格上涨。 提高透明度。这些措施都表明贷款定价将更加理性。此外，如果 PPI 持续回升， 对降低利率的社会舆论压力也会减小，从而推动贷款利率略有反弹。 摘要 贷款利率预计逐渐回升，受监管政策变化、合理定价认知提升及供需平 衡影响。央行已引导综合融资成本维持低位，并提高贷款成本透明度， PPI 回升也将减小降息压力，推动利率小幅反弹。 资本市场活跃利好金融业，促进家庭金融资产增长，资金流入保险、私 募基金等领域。新科技发展和经济企稳使资本市场成为重要抓手，对手 续费收入贡献巨大，基建需求增加为整体经济托底。 2026 年保险行业负债端新单保费和新业务价值预计强劲增长，得益于 产品吸引力提升和银保渠道大公司扩张。资 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Market Outlook**: The stock market is expected to accelerate in the short term, with a positive outlook for technology and non-bank sectors. Opportunities in cyclical and consumer goods are also worth noting. The impact of institutional profit protection and reduced positions on the market has been largely digested, with the ChiNext showing strong performance, indicating that the technology market is far from over [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategy**: The focus remains on technology and non-bank sectors, while also considering transformation opportunities in cyclical and consumer goods. The liquidity aspect suggests that the market's adjustment is more about liquidity than value judgment [3][4]. - **Economic Policy**: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing investment and reducing inventory in real estate, aiming to address the negative growth in investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) [4][5]. - **Market Style Prediction for 2026**: The market is expected to favor quality growth or a return to fundamental strategies, with opportunities in both technology and non-technology sectors, as well as large-cap and small-cap stocks [5][6]. Sector-Specific Insights Aviation Industry - **Investment Logic**: The aviation sector's investment logic for the next two years is based on favorable oil prices, exchange rates, and national policies to boost consumption. High passenger load factors are expected to shift towards price increases, improving supply-demand dynamics and profitability [8][9]. Oil Shipping Industry - **Current Fundamentals**: The oil shipping industry remains robust, with crude oil freight rates maintaining high levels. The fourth quarter and annual profits are expected to reach a ten-year high. The supply-demand relationship in the compliant market continues to improve, with optimistic expectations reflected in rising one-year charter rates [10]. Chemical Industry - **Market Performance**: The chemical market is showing strength, particularly in new energy chemical materials. The spandex sector is expected to see a turning point, with companies like Huafeng Chemical showing potential due to cost advantages [11][12]. Metal Industry - **Future Outlook**: The metal industry is expected to be in a bull market phase, with optimism driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to perform well, with strong demand driven by AI trends [14][15]. Petrochemical Industry - **Oil Price Predictions**: Oil prices are expected to face pressure in the first half of the year but may recover in the second half due to improving supply-demand dynamics. Companies like CNOOC and PetroChina are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [16][17]. Coal Market - **Short-Term and Long-Term Predictions**: The coal market is currently experiencing a price correction but is expected to stabilize between 650-670 RMB. Long-term, coal prices may enter a new upward cycle, with companies like China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal Mining recommended for their production capacity [22]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **Investment Recommendations**: Specific companies and sectors are highlighted for potential investment, including technology stocks, financial services, and cyclical consumer goods that can successfully transition [6][7][27]. - **Public Utilities Concerns**: The public utilities sector faces concerns regarding electricity prices, but companies with strong dividend commitments are recommended for investment [26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations across various sectors.