华西证券（002926）发布研报称，看好证券行业为新质生产力融资、为耐心资本长期配置服务的中介功 能，建议关注：1)有同业并购预期的证券公司。2)在境外业务布局较为充分的，头部券商。3)在中长期 资金入市的背景下，零售经纪业务突出及财富管理转型较有成效的公司。该行预计上市险企2025年全年 净利润将继续保持两位数增速，资负同步改善叠加开门红或超预期，保险板块估值或迎来持续修复。 华西证券主要观点如下： 非银行情复盘 2025年初至12月28日，非银金融上涨12.12%，在31个申万一级行业中排第19;跑输上证指数6.13个百分 点。非银市盈率11.62倍，在一级行业中排第23;加权市净率1.79倍，为过去十年最低37%分位。 2025年4月25日，中共中央政治局会议提出，"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，释放了明确的积极信号。 2026年，各监管部门的"十五五"规划和各省市金融业"十五五"规划，对证券行业的政策将逐步明晰、落 地。多部门多项举措推动中长期资金入市，畅通社保、保险、理财等资金入市堵点，促进实现"长钱长 投"。 风险提示：宏观经济持续下行风险;国内流动性宽松进程不及预期等风险;长期利率超预期下行风险。人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the historical trend of deposit migration, highlighting a shift from resident fixed deposits to non-bank and corporate demand deposits, driven by a loose monetary policy environment and the recovery of the real economy [4][12] - The report identifies two significant periods of deposit migration in the past 20 years, occurring from January 2009 to August 2011 and from March 2015 to January 2018, where the proportion of resident fixed deposits decreased significantly [12][35] - Future deposit migration trends will depend on the pace of economic recovery, with current indicators showing initial signs of deposit migration as resident demand deposits and M1 growth rates increase [4][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Decline in Resident Fixed Deposit Proportion - Recent months have seen a decline in resident fixed deposits, with a corresponding increase in non-bank deposits, indicating a potential shift in deposit behavior [4][10] - As of November 2025, the proportion of resident fixed deposits is 36.98%, down 0.56 percentage points from the peak in April 2025, while non-bank deposits have increased by 1.13 percentage points to 10.68% [10][11] Section 2: Historical Review of Deposit Migration - The report reviews the historical context of deposit migration, noting two major phases: the first from January 2009 to August 2011, and the second from March 2015 to January 2018, where fixed deposit proportions fell significantly [12][35] - During these periods, the share of corporate demand deposits and non-bank deposits increased markedly, indicating a structural shift in deposit behavior [21][35] Section 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of deposit migration is contingent on the recovery of the real economy, with current monetary policy supporting a favorable environment for such shifts [4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators and the impact of monetary policy on deposit behavior, suggesting that the current trends may lead to sustained changes in deposit structures [4][12]

Group 1 - The national general public budget revenue for the first 11 months of the year reached 20.05 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.8%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous 10 months [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 16.48 trillion yuan, growing by 1.8%, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first 10 months [1] - The domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax grew by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively, while personal income tax increased by 11.5%, consistent with the growth rate from the first 10 months [1] Group 2 - The performance of personal income tax has been notably strong, likely due to the active capital market and increased wealth effect, with capital market-related tax revenues also seeing significant growth [2] - Corporate income tax revenue reached 402.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, indicating a recovery in corporate earnings supported by various factors [2] - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with the computer and communication equipment manufacturing sector growing by 14.1% and the electrical machinery sector by 7.9% [2] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector continues to play a stabilizing role, with tax revenue from manufacturing maintaining a stable share of around 30% [3] - High-tech industry sales revenue increased by 14.7%, with smart device manufacturing sales growing by 28.2%, reflecting rapid growth in innovation-driven sectors [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first 11 months reached 24.85 trillion yuan, growing by 1.4%, with significant spending in social security and employment, education, and health sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first 11 months of 2025 indicates stable growth in public budget revenue, with tax revenues from key sectors like equipment manufacturing and modern services performing well [1][2]. Revenue Summary - Total public budget revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous 10 months [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 16.48 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first 10 months [2]. - Key tax categories showed positive growth: domestic VAT increased by 3.9%, domestic consumption tax by 2.5%, and personal income tax by 11.5% [2]. - The active capital market contributed to the notable performance of personal income tax, with significant increases in capital market-related tax revenues, including a 70.7% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [2][3]. Corporate Income Tax Insights - Corporate income tax revenue reached 402.34 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [2]. - The recovery in corporate income tax is attributed to economic recovery, policy effects, and a low base from previous years [3]. - The manufacturing sector continues to play a stabilizing role, with tax revenue from this sector maintaining around 30% of total tax revenue [3]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern services sectors showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific growth rates: computer and communication equipment manufacturing at 14.1%, electrical machinery at 7.9%, and scientific research and technical services at 14.6% [3]. - High-tech industries reported a sales revenue increase of 14.7%, with smart device manufacturing sales growing by 28.2% [3]. Expenditure Summary - Total public budget expenditure reached 24.85 trillion yuan, growing by 1.4%, with significant spending in social security and employment (8.1% growth), education (4.4% growth), and health (4.7% growth) [4]. - Expenditures related to infrastructure showed a declining trend, with urban and rural community spending and agricultural spending decreasing year-on-year [4]. - Government fund budget revenue was 4.03 trillion yuan, down by 4.9%, while expenditures increased by 13.7%, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [4]. Fiscal Policy Impact - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan to support local government debt, which is expected to inject new momentum into economic development and assist localities in achieving their annual economic and social development goals [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stable growth of China's fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first 11 months of 2025, highlighting the performance of various tax revenues and the focus on social welfare spending. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - In the first 11 months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous 10 months [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 16.48 trillion yuan, growing by 1.8%, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first 10 months [1] - Major tax categories showed positive growth, with domestic VAT and consumption tax increasing by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively, while personal income tax rose by 11.5% [1][2] Group 2: Personal Income Tax and Corporate Tax - The performance of personal income tax has been notably strong, attributed to the active capital market and increased wealth effect, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3% driven by stock transfers and related income [2] - Corporate income tax revenue reached 402.34 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, indicating a recovery in the economy supported by policy effects and improved corporate profitability [2] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries demonstrated strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like computer communication equipment manufacturing and scientific research services growing by 14.1% and 14.6% respectively [2][3] - The manufacturing sector continues to play a stabilizing role, with tax revenue from this sector maintaining around 30% of total tax revenue [3] Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure for the first 11 months was 24.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4%, with significant spending in social welfare areas [3] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 8.1%, education spending increased by 4.4%, and health spending rose by 4.7%, while infrastructure-related expenditures showed a declining trend [3] Group 5: Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue was 4.03 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.9%, while expenditures increased by 13.7% to 9.21 trillion yuan, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [4] - Central government allocated 500 billion yuan to support local government debt, which is expected to inject new momentum into economic development [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the stability in China's fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first eleven months of 2025, with a slight increase in tax revenues and a focus on social welfare spending [1][3][4] - National general public budget revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous ten months [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 16.48 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 1.8%, with domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax increasing by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - Personal income tax showed a notable increase of 11.5%, attributed to the active performance of the capital market and the resulting wealth effect [2] - Corporate income tax revenue reached 402.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, indicating a recovery in corporate earnings supported by various economic factors [2][3] - The manufacturing sector continues to play a crucial role, with tax revenue from this sector stabilizing around 30% of total tax revenue, and high-tech industries experiencing a sales revenue growth of 14.7% [3] Group 3 - General public budget expenditure for the first eleven months was 24.85 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with significant allocations towards social security, education, and health care [3] - The government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% to 4.03 trillion yuan, while expenditures increased by 13.7% to 9.21 trillion yuan, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [3] - Central government allocated 500 billion yuan to support local government debt, which is expected to inject new momentum into economic development [4]

Core Insights - The personal income tax revenue in China reached 1.3363 trillion yuan from January to October 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, with a significant increase in October at 27.3% [2][3] Tax Revenue Performance - Domestic value-added tax grew by 4% year-on-year, while domestic consumption tax reached 1.439 trillion yuan, increasing by 2.4%. Corporate income tax amounted to 3.9182 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.9% [2] Factors Driving Growth - The high growth in personal income tax is attributed to improved tax administration efficiency and diversification of tax sources, reflecting significant progress in tax governance capabilities [3] - Enhanced tax collection measures, particularly for overseas income, have contributed to the increase, with a notable rise in compliance among high-net-worth individuals [4][6] Overseas Income Management - The tax administration system has been refined, leading to better monitoring of previously unregulated tax sources, with tax authorities actively reaching out to taxpayers regarding overseas income reporting [4][5] - The implementation of the "Golden Tax Phase IV" has improved the accuracy of identifying cross-border income and hidden income [4] Capital Market Influence - The active capital market has led to a surge in capital income, which, along with resilient income among high-income groups and a low base effect, has supported the growth of personal income tax [7] - The capital market's performance is expected to contribute approximately 330 billion yuan to personal income tax in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 40 billion yuan [7] Economic Recovery and Base Effect - Economic recovery since the third quarter of 2025 and a low base from the previous year have amplified the growth rate of personal income tax [8] - The transition from a "coarse" to a "fine" tax governance model is expected to ensure stable growth in personal income tax revenue in the future [8]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported an increase in national general public budget revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% in October, reaching 2.26 trillion yuan [1] - Tax revenue showed a significant increase of 8.6% in October, indicating strong economic support for tax sources [1] - The overall fiscal performance for the first ten months reflects gradual improvement in revenue, strong expenditure support, and continuous structural optimization [3] Revenue Performance - In the first ten months, national general public budget revenue totaled 18.65 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the previous nine months [1] - Major tax categories such as domestic VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax saw growth rates of 4%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 11.5% respectively, with notable increases in personal income tax [1][2] - Stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, up 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty growing by 88.1%, reflecting an active capital market [2] Expenditure Trends - Total national general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion yuan, a 2% increase, with significant growth in social security and employment (9.3%), education (4.7%), and environmental protection (7%) [2] - The government is focusing on enhancing fiscal policy and increasing expenditure intensity to support key areas such as education, science and technology, and social security [2][3] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% to 3.45 trillion yuan, while expenditure increased by 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [3] - The expenditure of 4.54 trillion yuan from various bond sources is aimed at stabilizing investment and growth [3] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain an active fiscal policy, ensuring strong support for key expenditures and expanding effective demand [3] - The recent Party Congress emphasized the importance of fiscal policy in achieving economic and social development goals [3]

Core Viewpoint - The securities sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, driven by significant inflows into leading securities ETFs, particularly the Securities ETF Leader (560090) [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 29, the Securities ETF Leader (560090) saw a sharp increase of over 2%, with trading volume reaching 240 million yuan [1]. - The leading stocks within the Securities ETF index all experienced gains, with notable performances from Huazhong Securities and Northeast Securities hitting the daily limit, and others like Dongxing Securities and GF Securities rising over 5% and 4% respectively [3]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the Securities ETF Leader (560090) include Dongfang Wealth (15.30% weight), CITIC Securities (13.68% weight), and Huatai Securities (5.22% weight) [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Ten listed companies in the securities sector reported third-quarter results, with a collective surge in net profit, the highest growth reaching 191% [4]. - CITIC Securities reported a net profit exceeding 20 billion yuan, leading the sector in profitability [4]. - Huazhong Securities disclosed a third-quarter revenue of 4.423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.32%, with a net profit of 1.883 billion yuan, up 64.71% [3][5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The securities sector is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, with projected adjusted revenue for 45 listed securities firms reaching 158.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50% [6]. - The overall revenue for these firms in the first three quarters of 2025 is anticipated to be 398.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 44% increase compared to the previous year [6]. - Despite strong performance metrics, the sector's stock price growth has lagged, with a cumulative increase of only 7% in the first three quarters, ranking 22nd among 34 industry indices [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Securities ETF Leader (560090) offers a strategic investment option, encompassing 49 listed securities firms, with the top five stocks accounting for approximately 48% of its holdings [7]. - The ETF has outperformed 56% of its constituent stocks with a 20% increase over the past six months, making it a viable choice for investors looking to capitalize on the securities sector's performance [7][8].

Group 1 - A-shares continued to rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3900 points, closing up 1.36% at 3916.33 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.02% [1] - The overall market showed a broad-based increase, with over 4600 stocks rising, accounting for more than 80% of the total [1] - Key sectors leading the market included telecommunications, electronic components, shipbuilding, and semiconductors, while coal and daily chemicals declined [1] Group 2 - The stability of the stock market is crucial for injecting capital into the real economy and enhancing consumer confidence through wealth, psychological, and expectation effects [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.39%, indicating increasing foreign investment interest in Chinese stocks [2] - Short-term market fluctuations are expected due to profit-taking and market sentiment, but favorable policies and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China may support the market [2]