证券研究报告 | 2026年02月24日 2025 年四季度保险业资金运用情况点评 压实固收底仓，增持权益有空间 |  行业研究·行业快评 | |  | 非银金融·保险Ⅱ  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | | 证券分析师： | 王京灵 | 0755-22941150 | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525070007 | 事项： 国家金融监督管理总局发布保险业 2025 年 4 季度资金运用情况及相关数据。截至 2025 年四季度末，我国 保险资金运用余额达 38.5 万亿元，同比增长 15.7%。 国信非银观点：2025 年四季度，保险资金权益占比创近四年新高（占行业规模比例为 9.7%，不含公募基 金基金占比），债券配置维持高位（占行业规模 48.6%），存款与非标持续压降。在长端利率中枢下移与 "资产荒"延续的背景下，险企主动 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the strong performance in the first three quarters lays a solid foundation for the annual results, with a high growth trend in NBV expected to continue into 2025 [1][2] - It is projected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of A-share insurance companies will increase by 22.7% year-on-year to 426.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a decrease in growth rate of 10.9 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - Specific companies are expected to show significant growth in net profit, including China Taiping (215%-225%), China Life (45.8%), and New China Life (43.0%) [1] Group 2 - The liability side of life insurance is expected to maintain a high growth trend, with projected NBV growth rates for various companies such as PICC Life (60.2%) and Sunshine Insurance (49.9%) [2] - The property insurance sector is expected to see a year-on-year premium income increase of 3.9% to 1.76 trillion yuan in 2025, with claims expenses rising by 1.6% to 1.17 trillion yuan [3] - The impact of Typhoon "Maitai" in October 2025 is expected to cause a temporary effect on the combined ratio (COR) performance, with significant economic losses reported [3] Group 3 - The strategy for insurance capital entering the market is continuously advancing, with the scale and proportion of investments in the secondary market increasing significantly [4] - By the end of September 2025, the balance of insurance funds in the secondary market reached 5.59 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.9% of total investments, an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan and 2.6 percentage points from the end of 2024 [4] - Market fluctuations are anticipated to exert pressure on investment performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, with various indices showing mixed performance [4]

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 2026 年 02 月 10 日 预计 NBV 增速亮眼，市场波动阶 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《资、负两端均表现亮眼，3Q25A 股险企 利润大增 68%——保险行业 2025 年三季 报业绩综述》 2025/11/05 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 联系人 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 看好 ——保险行业 2025 年年报前瞻 风险提示：长端利率下行、权益市场波动、大灾频发、监管政策影响超预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 预计 A 股险企 2025 年归母净利润 yoy+22.7%至 4264 亿元。4Q25 资本市场 阶段性波动叠加 2H2 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) achieved a significant victory in the recent elections, gaining over 20% more seats in the House of Representatives, which is unprecedented since World War II. This victory is expected to facilitate the implementation of loose monetary and fiscal policies, as well as a "Japan First" foreign policy [2][3] - The global manufacturing PMI rose for the sixth consecutive month in January, indicating ongoing recovery in the manufacturing sector. Developed countries showed more significant improvements compared to emerging markets, with new orders and export orders also improving [3] Group 2: Fixed Income and Market Trends - The A-share market experienced a decline due to macroeconomic fluctuations, with net outflows of financing funds exceeding 50 billion. The pricing power is shifting towards institutional funds, with a notable increase in the positions of active equity funds [4][5] - The liquidity tracking report indicated a marginal easing in the funding environment, with DR007 averaging 1.48%, down 9 basis points from the previous week. The overall net injection in the open market was -6,560 billion [5] Group 3: Real Estate and Commercial Property - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with residential prices experiencing the largest monthly increase since April 2025. The inventory of unsold new homes is decreasing, and rental prices have reached historical highs [8] - The introduction of REITs in commercial real estate is progressing rapidly, with 10 projects successfully submitted for approval. This development is expected to enhance asset liquidity and drive value re-evaluation for related companies [12] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - Enphase Energy reported a revenue of $343 million for Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.3%. However, the company anticipates a recovery in performance due to new product launches and favorable market conditions [19] - The domestic chemical industry is expected to see improved profitability as the price spread between raw materials and products has widened, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [10] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for companies like Minshi Group, which is expanding its robotics business in the U.S. and Europe, indicating a strong growth trajectory in traditional and new business segments [18] - The approval of D-allohexose enzyme preparations in China is expected to benefit Baolong Chuangyuan, a leader in functional sugars, as it accelerates the application of allulose in the market [20]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several insurance companies, including China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance [5]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to see significant growth in investable funds, with estimates of 3.1 trillion yuan in 2026, driven by strong premium growth and a balanced allocation between equities and bonds [6][31]. - The secondary equity investment is projected to reach 0.9 trillion yuan in 2026, slightly lower than the previous year, while bond investments are expected to increase significantly [6][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend stocks as a key investment strategy for insurance companies, aiming to secure cash dividends to offset declining interest income [7][48]. Summary by Sections Investment Scale and Growth - In 2025, the insurance sector is estimated to have an additional investable fund of 2.3 trillion yuan, with secondary equity investments around 1 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase from previous years [12][36]. - By 2026, the total investment scale in the insurance industry is projected to reach 42 trillion yuan, with a secondary equity allocation expected to rise to 18% [30][35]. Premium and Fund Sources - The total premium for the insurance industry is expected to reach 6.9 trillion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 13% [31][34]. - New single premiums are projected to be 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a 25% increase, while renewal premiums are expected to grow by 11% to 3 trillion yuan [31][34]. Asset Allocation and Strategy - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation, with a decrease in non-standard, deposit, and alternative assets, while equities and bonds are expected to see increased investment [30][41]. - The focus on dividend stocks is highlighted as a strategy to stabilize cash flow and reduce profit volatility, with an anticipated annual increase in high-dividend stock allocations of 300 to 500 billion yuan [7][55]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the insurance sector's secondary equity position reached a historical high of 16% by the end of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions and policy support [12][20]. - The anticipated regulatory changes in asset-liability management are expected to further influence investment strategies within the insurance industry [6][30].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is experiencing a significant rebound at the beginning of 2026, with insurance stocks rising sharply and sales of insurance products improving due to low deposit rates and favorable market conditions [1][19]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Insurance stocks have seen substantial gains, with New China Life leading with a 17.78% increase as of January 16, 2026. The top five listed insurance companies have all recorded double-digit growth over the past three months, with increases ranging from 10.32% to 23.83% [2][20]. - Historical data indicates that since 2014, there have been five notable bullish trends in the insurance sector, with stock market performance being a key catalyst for these trends [2][20]. Group 2: Sales Performance - The insurance industry is witnessing a resurgence in sales, with reports of significant premium collections, such as one company surpassing 3 billion yuan in first-year premium within four days after New Year [5][23]. - The total insurance premium income in China reached 5.76 trillion yuan by November 2025, marking an increase of 400 billion yuan from the previous year [5][23]. Group 3: Product Trends - The rise in sales is attributed to the popularity of participating insurance products, which combine protection and investment features. These products have become attractive due to their lower guaranteed rates and the current low-interest environment [6][24]. - Major insurance companies are focusing on participating insurance products, with new offerings featuring guaranteed rates around 1.75% and projected returns between 3.5% and 3.9% [7][25]. Group 4: Investment Performance - The total investment income of listed insurance companies reached 887.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.64% [10][28]. - The investment strategies of insurance companies have shifted towards equities, with significant increases in stock and equity fund investments, particularly for companies like China Life and Ping An [12][30]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts express optimism about the continued strength of insurance stocks in 2026, driven by robust premium growth and improved business quality, alongside favorable investment conditions [16][34]. - However, challenges remain, particularly regarding the long-term risks associated with interest rate spreads and the need for insurance companies to diversify their product offerings and improve customer satisfaction [16][35].

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (CPIC Life) has increased its stake in Shanghai International Airport Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Airport) to 5.00%, triggering a regulatory notification due to the acquisition of 72.424 million A-shares through block trading [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Details - CPIC Life and its affiliates now hold a total of 124 million A-shares of Shanghai Airport, representing 5.00% of the company's A-share capital, up from 51.9917 million shares (2.09%) prior to the acquisition [1][4]. - The market value of CPIC Life's holdings in Shanghai Airport is approximately 4.067 billion yuan, accounting for 0.15% of CPIC Life's total assets as of Q3 2025 [4][5]. Group 2: Company Background - Shanghai Airport was established in May 1997 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in February 1998. The company underwent a significant asset restructuring in 2022, unifying the management of its air transport business [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shanghai Airport reported total revenue of 9.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, and a net profit of 1.634 billion yuan, up 35.98% [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The insurance sector has seen a significant increase in equity market participation, with 20 instances of stake acquisitions in 2024 and 36 in 2025, marking a new high since 2016 [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that insurance companies are motivated by two main factors for these acquisitions: stable dividend cash flows and investments in companies with strong return on equity (ROE) and market positions [6][7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the financial, insurance, and transportation industries, with a focus on market trends and investment opportunities for 2026 [1][2][19]. Financial Industry Insights - **Loan Rates**: Loan rates are expected to gradually rebound due to regulatory changes, improved pricing awareness, and a balance in supply and demand. The central bank has shifted its focus from lowering financing costs to maintaining them at low levels, which will reduce pressure for rate cuts [3][4]. - **Market Activity**: An active capital market is beneficial for the financial sector, leading to increased household financial asset growth and significant contributions to fee income from new technologies and economic stabilization [6]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Preferred banks include Ningbo Bank and Minsheng Bank, with strong growth potential. In the insurance sector, China Life Insurance and regional insurers are highlighted as having significant growth potential [5][9]. Insurance Sector Projections - **Premium Growth**: The insurance industry is expected to see strong growth in new premiums and business value in 2026, driven by improved product attractiveness and the expansion of major companies in the bancassurance channel [9]. - **Investment Trends**: In 2025, insurance capital is projected to enter the market at approximately 1.8 trillion RMB, with about 1 trillion RMB flowing into the stock market. A shift from high-dividend stocks to growth stocks is anticipated [11]. Brokerage Industry Outlook - **Operating Environment**: The brokerage industry is expected to have a favorable operating environment in 2026, with active trading and a more friendly regulatory environment. Firms like Dongfang Caifu are expected to perform well due to high trading volumes [12]. - **IPO Activity**: The IPO market is anticipated to remain active, with a significant recovery in financing volumes expected in 2026, benefiting brokers with strong underwriting capabilities [13][14]. Transportation Industry Analysis - **Airline Sector**: The airline industry is in an upward cycle, with supply constraints due to delayed aircraft deliveries and increased demand for air travel in China. Policies promoting tourism and infrastructure investment are expected to support growth [19][20]. - **Shipping and Express Delivery**: The oil shipping sector is poised for growth due to increased demand for compliant vessels, while the express delivery market is expected to consolidate, with leading players gaining market share [19][21]. Market Risks and Challenges - **Risk Management**: The financial sector is effectively managing risks, particularly in manufacturing and small enterprises. Real estate risks are being closely monitored by authorities [7][8]. - **Economic Outlook**: The macroeconomic environment is stable, which is favorable for the financial sector's development. However, the shipping industry faces risks related to macroeconomic demand outlooks [20]. Additional Insights - **Commodity Markets**: The export of photovoltaic components and batteries is expected to increase significantly, impacting the electrolytic aluminum market. The lithium carbonate market is experiencing price increases due to environmental inspections and production delays [22][23]. - **Copper and Aluminum Supply**: The copper market is facing supply constraints, while aluminum prices are supported by strong demand from the photovoltaic sector [25][26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the financial, insurance, and transportation industries' dynamics and investment opportunities for 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing trend of insurance capital actively increasing their equity investments, with significant recent activities including the acquisition of shares in Shanghai Airport by Taibao Life Insurance, indicating a robust wave of insurance capital entering the market in 2026 [2][3][5]. Group 1: Recent Acquisitions - On January 9, Taibao Life Insurance increased its stake in Shanghai Airport by acquiring 72.424 million shares, raising its total holdings to 124 million shares, which constitutes approximately 5.00% of the company's A-share capital [2][3]. - Prior to this acquisition, Taibao Life Insurance and its asset management subsidiary held 51.9917 million shares, representing a 2.09% stake [3]. - The total value of Taibao Life Insurance's holdings in Shanghai Airport is approximately 4.067 billion yuan, accounting for 0.15% of the company's total assets as of Q3 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Insurance Capital Trends - In December 2025, Ping An Life Insurance also made significant acquisitions, reaching a 20% stake in Agricultural Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, triggering mandatory disclosure [5]. - The frequency of insurance capital triggering the 5% disclosure threshold has become a notable trend in 2025, with a total of 36 instances recorded, surpassing previous highs [5][6]. Group 3: Equity Asset Allocation - As of Q3 2025, the total equity asset allocation by life and property insurance companies reached 5.59 trillion yuan, marking a 35.92% increase year-on-year [7]. - The equity asset allocation ratio for insurance companies has reached a historical high, with stock allocations accounting for 10% of total assets and combined stock and fund allocations exceeding 15% [7]. - Ping An Life Insurance reported an equity asset balance of 1.5 trillion yuan, which is 27.00% of its total assets, up from 19.81% in the previous year [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Investment Sentiment - The article notes that insurance capital is motivated by a low interest rate environment and new accounting standards, leading to a greater need for equity asset allocation [8]. - A survey of insurance investment officers indicates a prevailing sentiment that opportunities in the market outweigh risks, with over 70% planning to continue increasing equity allocations [8][9]. - The trend of reallocating assets in a declining interest rate environment is expected to further drive insurance capital towards equity investments, fostering a positive cycle of market recovery [9].

Group 1 - The insurance industry reported a significant performance with a net premium income of approximately 3.7 trillion yuan after deducting claims, indicating a strong financial position despite market anxieties [1] - Financial institutions are preparing for an influx of 50 trillion yuan in maturing deposits, with bank wealth management being the primary investment tool for the public, although its contribution to the stock market remains minimal, with equity allocation below 2% [3] - Insurance companies are expected to have a substantial and long-term impact on the A-share market, with some already holding 20% in stocks and bond funds, while others maintain a 10% allocation [5] Group 2 - A long-term allocation of 15%-20% in stocks is deemed appropriate for insurance companies, as high-dividend stocks provide yields significantly higher than bond rates, thus helping to cover liabilities [7] - The current low-interest-rate environment necessitates a shift from traditional high-yield bonds to equities, as the latter can better cover the rigid costs associated with long-term liabilities [10] - High-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector, are favored by insurance companies, which can classify these dividends as profits while stock price fluctuations do not affect their profit statements [11] Group 3 - By Q3 2025, insurance companies' stock investments reached 3.6 trillion yuan, indicating a significant presence in the market, comparable to the scale of actively managed public funds [13] - The stability of insurance capital is crucial for the stock market, as it provides long-term support and helps stabilize investor sentiment, especially in the context of technology sector investments [13] - Insurance companies are positioned to benefit from high-quality development and are expected to reflect this in dividend payouts, enhancing returns for policyholders [10]