Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee on September 25 resulted in a decision to raise prices for various types of coke and to recommend a production cut of over 30% across the industry to maintain reasonable profit levels and healthy development [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Effective from September 26, prices for different types of coke will be increased: 50 CNY/ton for solid wet quenching coke, 55 CNY/ton for solid dry quenching coke, 80 CNY/ton for top-loaded wet quenching coke, and 85 CNY/ton for top-loaded dry quenching coke [1]. - Recent days have seen several companies raise prices for coking coal and coke [1]. Group 2: Industry Structure and Production - The coking coal industry is dominated by large state-owned enterprises, with Shanxi Coking Coal Group holding over 50% of the national resources. The projected domestic coking coal production for 2024 is 472 million tons [2]. - The total coking capacity in China is approximately 560 million tons, with independent coking capacity accounting for about 65%. The projected production of coke and semi-coke for 2024 is 489 million tons [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal and coke is tight, with iron water production increasing at a higher rate than coke production. This supports the prices of both coking coal and coke [3][4]. - As of mid-September, the cumulative iron water production from 247 sample steel mills was 630 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while the cumulative coke production was approximately 300 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [2]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a state of "anti-involution" and "weak reality," with expectations of price support due to downstream replenishment before the National Day holiday [4]. - Analysts suggest that the coking coal market has strong cost support, and with sustained high iron water production, there is potential for a price increase in coke, with expectations of 2 to 3 rounds of price hikes [4].

Economic Overview - Shanxi Province's major economic indicators showed stable growth from January to July, with industrial production remaining generally stable and new growth drivers being cultivated [1] - The province's economy is exhibiting a positive trend, supported by steady investment and consumption expansion [1] Industrial Production - From January to July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Shanxi increased by 5.6% [1] - The coal industry, a key sector in Shanxi, grew by 6.2%, contributing 68.6% to overall industrial growth, highlighting its crucial role in stabilizing the industrial base [1] - Non-coal industries also saw growth, with sectors such as coking (11.3%), non-ferrous metals (15.2%), and equipment manufacturing (8.4%) performing well [1] - Out of 40 major industry categories, 29 reported an increase in added value, resulting in a growth coverage of 72.5% [1] New Growth Drivers - The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size grew by 8.4%, with the new energy equipment manufacturing sector experiencing a twofold increase [1] - In high-tech manufacturing, the computer and office equipment manufacturing sector surged by 81.4% [1] - Strategic emerging industries in the industrial sector, particularly the new energy industry, grew by 46.3% [1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Shanxi increased by 1.5% from January to July, with private investment rising by 3.9%, indicating a recovery in market confidence and an improved business environment [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.2%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year and surpassing the national average by 1.4 percentage points [2] - Retail sales in large-scale enterprises increased by 8.2%, exceeding the national growth rate by 2.6%, reflecting the strengthening vitality of the consumption market [2]