煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 2 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 煤焦：预期扰动频繁，宽幅震荡 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 本周主产区煤矿受安全检查及井下工作面条件等因素制约，生产扰动持续存在，导致整体供应量难以充分释放。在多重因素叠加 影响下，煤矿复产整体推进缓慢，供应恢复节奏低于预期，样本煤矿原煤日产环比增加2.9万吨。 ◆ 2、需求： ➢ 焦钢企业补库需求回升，部分优质煤种需求回暖，但整体需求依旧有限。本周铁水产量继续明显下降，环比降2.65万吨至226.55 万吨，此外，周五焦炭开启第三轮提降，预计下周一落地执行。 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 以应对十五五开局之年，国内年底会议相对较为密集，对市场风偏仍能形成一定提振效果，多类风险资产估值显现出一定向上修 复。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 近期盘面的反弹驱动主要来自临交割主力合约盘面的博弈，以及政府干预语调下对市场预期 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤通关高位 盘面偏弱运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 9 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价震荡下行，夜盘价格维持弱势，弱交割逻辑影响 下，焦煤 01 合约跌幅居前。现货市场总体偏弱，国内煤价补跌；钢厂对 焦炭价格完成首轮调降，仍存提降预期。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，预计焦煤供应维持相对稳定格局。国内焦煤矿生产受 保供的提振作用相对有限，在下游需求进入淡季的阶段下，焦煤产量难有 显著增幅；但进口端仍处高位，继续对国内煤价形成压制，其中上周蒙煤 甘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke market in Shanxi is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance in Q4 2023, with prices rising due to limited supply and strong demand, despite some pressure on coke producers from rising raw material costs [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The coal and coke market has shown a "V" shaped recovery since 2025, with a significant rebound in the second half of the year after a period of oversupply and price declines [3]. - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines in Shanxi was 84.53%, down 6.16% year-on-year, indicating reduced production capacity [6]. - Coking coal prices have reached new highs, with Anze low-sulfur coking coal increasing by 40 CNY/ton to 1710 CNY/ton, a total increase of 170 CNY/ton since October [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Downstream demand remains strong, with coal mines reporting full orders and low inventory levels, leading to expectations of stable or rising prices until the end of the year [6][9]. - Trade merchants are actively replenishing inventory, anticipating that coal prices will not decline significantly before year-end [3][9]. - Despite the strong demand, some high-sulfur coking coal prices have seen slight declines due to rapid price increases leading to weakened purchasing demand [6]. Group 3: Challenges for Coking Enterprises - Coking enterprises are facing profit pressures due to the rising costs of raw materials, with coking coal prices increasing significantly while coke price increases lag behind [7][8]. - The price of low-sulfur coking coal has risen from 1144 CNY/ton to 1688 CNY/ton since mid-June, while the price of coke has only increased from 990 CNY/ton to 1440 CNY/ton, indicating a disparity in profit margins [7]. - Some coking enterprises are considering reducing supply to clients who do not accept price increases, as they face challenges in maintaining profitability [4][16]. Group 4: Inventory and Trading Strategies - Current inventory levels are low, with many traders indicating that they will wait for a price correction of 50-100 CNY/ton before increasing purchases [9][19]. - A significant portion of the market is cautious about replenishing inventory due to the rapid rise in coal prices, with many traders preferring to wait for a market pullback [9][19]. - The futures market has shown a divergence from the spot market, with concerns about the quality and pricing of delivery affecting trader confidence [10]. Group 5: Company Insights - Company A, a leading coking coal producer, reports strong sales with no inventory pressure, but production capacity is limited due to aging mines [12][13]. - Company B, a major coking enterprise, is facing profit challenges due to high raw material costs and plans to adjust its purchasing strategy based on coal price movements [15][16]. - Company C, a local coal producer, has a strong order book and expects continued demand through year-end, with prices remaining high [17].

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 19 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价震荡下行，焦煤近月合约跌幅超 4.0%，夜盘延 续弱势，贴水现货运行，弱交割逻辑拖累近月价格。现货市场总体弱稳， 个别煤种价格回调。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：市场情绪偏弱 盘面承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75. ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report: Tight Supply on the Supply Side, Limited Downward Adjustment Space for Coking Coal and Coke" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, market sentiment cooled, and the black chain weakened. Coking coal and coke were relatively strong in the black chain, with a small correction range. The supply of coking coal is tight due to factors such as mine over - production checks and stricter safety supervision policies, but the demand is weak as steel mills' profits are poor, blast furnace maintenance has expanded, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Overall, the short - term weakening of demand puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to the tight supply of coking coal and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Supply**: For coking coal, last week, the coal mine开工率 decreased week - on - week, and coking coal production slightly declined. Factors such as over - production checks, safety, and environmental protection restricted the supply elasticity of coking coal. For coke, the supply was tight, and the capacity utilization rate continued to decline. On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 63.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons [4] - **Demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline. The profit rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and coking profits improved slightly, but most coking enterprises still suffered serious losses. The supply of coke was tight, steel mills' profits were poor, blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory structure of coal mines improved week - on - week. On November 7, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.1924 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123,700 tons. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing was good, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 175,400 tons week - on - week to 10.7002 million tons, while the coking coal inventory of steel mills slightly decreased. For coke, the coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week [4] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term demand weakness puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to tight coking coal supply and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] - **Strategy**: Go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips, with a reference operating range of 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [4] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - No specific content for analysis is provided in the given text 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of coking coal futures contracts (DCE jm2601, jm2605), coke futures contracts (DCE j2601, j2605), the price differences between contracts 1 - 5 for coking coal and coke, as well as the spot prices of coking coal (including Port Mongolian 5 raw coal, Lvliang medium - sulfur main coking coal, etc.) and coke (including Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke, Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke, etc.) through charts [9][13][19][25] 4. Inventory - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The inventory of 523 sample mines decreased week - on - week, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased, and that of steel mills slightly decreased. Charts show the inventory trends of mines, ports, 247 steel mills, and all - sample independent coking enterprises [4][32][38] - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week. Charts show the inventory trends of all - sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, ports, and all - sample coke [4][39] 5. Supply Side - **Coking Coal Import**: No detailed analysis content is provided, only charts of coking coal imports from different regions to China are presented [49] - **Coking Coal Production**: On November 7, the coking coal开工率 of 523 sample mines was 83.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%; the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons [55] - **Coking Output**: On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of national independent coking enterprises was 635,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of 247 steel mills' coke also decreased week - on - week [56][59] 6. Demand Side - **Hot Metal and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline [63] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The report presents the production and consumption trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil through charts [64][66] - **Long - Process and Short - Process Production**: The report presents the production trends of long - process and short - process rebar through charts [73] - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit**: As of November 7, 2025, the profit rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [76]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term coal and coke supply increases while demand decreases, both are at relatively high levels. Attention should be paid to the impact of the increase in imported coal on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by changes in macro - factors, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated weakly, and the night - session prices rebounded slightly with relatively intense overall fluctuations. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend. Some coke enterprises in certain regions have sent letters for the second round of coke price increases, but mainstream coke enterprises have not yet increased prices and are still in the game process [3]. - **Import Data**: China's coking coal imports have been increasing month - by - month. In September, imports were 10.9237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, cumulative imports were 83.5312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline continuing to narrow. In September, imports of Mongolian coal were 6.0005 million tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, imports of Mongolian coal were 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline significantly narrowing. The continuous increase in coking coal imports will put some pressure on coal prices [2][3]. - **High - frequency Data**: Since the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance after the National Day, the daily average coal clearance volume at Ganqimaodu is 151,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons compared to September. The impact of changes in Mongolian coal imports needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - **Later Focus**: Concerns include changes in steel mill blast furnace start - up and coal mine resumption of production [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively high. The peak demand season combined with the downstream's remaining restocking space supports the confidence of the raw material market to hold prices firm. In the short term, the futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Coal and Coke Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded with oscillations and closed in the green. Driven by downstream restocking during the holiday, the first round of coke price increase was completed. The price of tamped dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and tamped wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [2] - After the first - round price increase of coke, the profits of coke enterprises have improved. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner without blockages [2] - Steel mills' operations remain at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintained at around 2.42 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [2] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is generally stable, with individual mine prices adjusting downward from high levels. Currently, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not obvious, supporting relatively firm prices [3] - The fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coking coal at the pithead has increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the warehouse - delivery equivalent price at about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It is rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance will increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, with the daily customs clearance volume increasing from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, and a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needs continuous tracking [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee on September 25 resulted in a decision to raise prices for various types of coke and to recommend a production cut of over 30% across the industry to maintain reasonable profit levels and healthy development [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Effective from September 26, prices for different types of coke will be increased: 50 CNY/ton for solid wet quenching coke, 55 CNY/ton for solid dry quenching coke, 80 CNY/ton for top-loaded wet quenching coke, and 85 CNY/ton for top-loaded dry quenching coke [1]. - Recent days have seen several companies raise prices for coking coal and coke [1]. Group 2: Industry Structure and Production - The coking coal industry is dominated by large state-owned enterprises, with Shanxi Coking Coal Group holding over 50% of the national resources. The projected domestic coking coal production for 2024 is 472 million tons [2]. - The total coking capacity in China is approximately 560 million tons, with independent coking capacity accounting for about 65%. The projected production of coke and semi-coke for 2024 is 489 million tons [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal and coke is tight, with iron water production increasing at a higher rate than coke production. This supports the prices of both coking coal and coke [3][4]. - As of mid-September, the cumulative iron water production from 247 sample steel mills was 630 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while the cumulative coke production was approximately 300 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [2]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a state of "anti-involution" and "weak reality," with expectations of price support due to downstream replenishment before the National Day holiday [4]. - Analysts suggest that the coking coal market has strong cost support, and with sustained high iron water production, there is potential for a price increase in coke, with expectations of 2 to 3 rounds of price hikes [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises support the confidence of the raw material market. The short - term market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices continued to fluctuate. Spot prices of coal in many regions rebounded slightly continuously. Coke enterprises planned to initiate the first round of price hikes due to increased costs [2] - Recently, affected by environmental protection policies in Tangshan, enterprises are required to prepare for strict emission reduction measures before the end of September. However, most of the production restrictions are voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average [2] - Last week, the average daily pig iron output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 million tons [2] Coal Mine Production - In coal mines, the production of previously resumed mines in Linfen, Shanxi has returned to normal, and production has continued to increase. With the production increase of large mining groups in Changzhi Qinyuan, the output has increased significantly. This week, the average daily output of clean coal is 772,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons [2] - It is expected that the coal mine output in the main production areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much next week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [2] Coking Coal Imports - The import volume of coking coal has steadily increased month - on - month. In August, China imported 1.01622 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.02%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 7.26075 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 632,030 tons, a decline of 8.01% [2] - In August, the import volume of Mongolian coal was 601,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.8%. High - frequency data shows that the daily customs clearance volume of the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal in September is still higher than that in August, supporting domestic coal supply [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The downstream starts pre - holiday stockpiling, which supports the confidence of the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly continuously, and some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise coke prices due to rising costs [2] - In August, China's coking coal imports were 1.01622 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.02%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 7.26075 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 632.03 million tons, a decline of 8.01%. In August, Mongolian coal imports were 601.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.8% [2] - Recently, Tangshan has been affected by environmental protection policies, with a planned production restriction from September 15th to September 30th. Most of the production restrictions are voluntary. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 billion tons, and there was no overall production reduction in steel mills [3] Raw Materials - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and output continued to increase. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia caused concerns about coal mine production reduction, the actual reduction in coking coal was limited. In the short term, there is still a slight increase in production space for coal mines in the main production areas, and the market may remain strong before the holiday [3]