投资消费方面同样呈现积极变化。1-7月，全省固定资产投资增长1.5%，其中民间投资增长3.9%，今年 以来增速持续高于全部投资，民间投资的活跃反映出市场信心的逐步恢复和营商环境的持续优化。同 时，社会消费品零售总额增长6.2%，比上半年加快0.1个百分点，高于全国1.4个百分点。其中，限上消 费增长8.2%，高于全国2.6个百分点，显示出消费市场的活力不断增强，消费对经济增长的基础性作用 进一步发挥。 央广网太原8月25日消息（记者张洁 见习记者尹琳岑）日前，记者从山西省统计局获悉，1-7月，山西 省主要经济指标稳定增长，工业生产总体平稳，新动能持续培育，投资消费稳步扩大，全省经济运行呈 现积极态势。 在工业生产方面，1-7月，全省规模以上工业增加值增长5.6%。山西作为煤炭资源大省，煤炭工业依然 是经济发展的重要支撑，因此，从主要行业看，煤炭工业增长6.2%，对工业增长的贡献率达68.6%，对 稳定工业基本盘发挥了重要作用。与此同时，山西积极推动非煤工业发展，非煤工业增长4.7%，其中 炼焦（11.3%）、有色（15.2%）、装备制造（8.4%）等行业较快增长。同时，40个行业大类中29个行 业增加值实现增 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 静待 7 月政治局会议 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。国务院总理李强7 月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。 会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。会议强调，有关部 门要进一步优化政策设计，认真听取各方面意见建议，积极帮助地方和企业解决 困难、促进发展，齐心协力推动经济持续向好。 全国政协召开2025年上半年宏观经济形势分析座谈会。政协主席王沪宁表示，今 年以来，面对国际环境复杂多变、不稳定性不确定性增加的复杂局面，以习近平 同志为核心的中共中央加强对经济工作的全面领导，坚持稳中求进工作总基调， 全面贯彻新发展理念，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放， 着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。 美国国会通过"稳定币"法案。当地时间7月17日，美国国会众议院以308票赞 成、122票反对的结果通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（Genius Act），旨在对加密货币监管进行重大立法改革。随后7月18日，美国总统特朗普 在白宫正式签署，标志着 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds across various industries, indicating a significant divergence in market performance among sectors, with non-ferrous metals seeing the highest inflow and electronics experiencing the largest outflow [1][2]. Industry Summary Net Inflow Industries - Non-ferrous metals led with a net inflow of 3.794 billion yuan, a price increase of 2.10%, and a trading volume increase of 50.61% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Other industries with positive net inflows include: - Non-bank financials: 0.897 billion yuan, price increase of 0.33%, trading volume increase of 15.80% [1]. - Food and beverage: 0.605 billion yuan, price increase of 0.73%, trading volume increase of 8.18% [1]. - Transportation: 0.422 billion yuan, price increase of 0.90%, trading volume decrease of 0.19% [1]. - Real estate: 0.248 billion yuan, price increase of 0.48%, trading volume decrease of 9.60% [1]. Net Outflow Industries - The electronics industry faced the largest net outflow of 8.341 billion yuan, with a price decrease of 0.49% and a trading volume decrease of 13.21% [2]. - Other industries with significant net outflows include: - Computer: 4.375 billion yuan, price decrease of 43.75%, trading volume increase of 2.01% [2]. - Communication: 2.701 billion yuan, price decrease of 0.31%, trading volume decrease of 4.02% [2]. - Machinery: 2.451 billion yuan, price decrease of 24.51%, trading volume decrease of 4.02% [2]. - Automotive: 2.389 billion yuan, price decrease of 0.17%, trading volume decrease of 17.13% [2].

Group 1 - A-shares have shown a structural market characteristic, with strong performance in consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and retail, as well as certain technology sectors like AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][4] - The top five performing industries in A-shares include agriculture, media, food and beverage, electrical equipment, and retail, indicating a growing interest in agricultural assets and a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The bottom five performing industries in A-shares are electronics, steel, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and storage chips, with the decline in non-ferrous metals linked to proposed US tariffs on copper [2] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector has seen a rise due to active innovative drug concepts, despite potential US tariffs on pharmaceuticals [3] - The top three performing industries in Hong Kong include healthcare, industrial, and energy, while the bottom three are materials, information technology, and real estate, reflecting external pressures from US tariff policies and global tech supply-demand imbalances [3] - The current market characteristics indicate that A-shares are driven by policy and sectoral improvements, while Hong Kong stocks are more influenced by external factors such as US tariffs and global technology cycles [4] Group 3 - Short-term market hotspots are concentrated around policy-driven sectors and improving industry conditions, with a focus on performance in the upcoming earnings reports [4] - The breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points is expected to further boost market confidence, with potential policy signals from the July Politburo meeting influencing capital flows [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-09 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250603 | 2025/05 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 48.30 | 50.40 | 51.70 | | 20250605 | 2025/05 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 51.10 | 50.70 | 54.00 | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 202505 ...

服务业提速升温，数字赋能增效显著。当前，服务业新动能正加快培育、新业态正蓬勃发展。增值税发 票数据显示，一季度全省信息传输软件和信息技术服务业、租赁和商务服务业、科学研究和技术服务业 等现代服务业快速发展，销售收入同比分别增长34.8%、14.6%、20.4%，特别是受AI产品火爆影响，数 字技术应用、数字产品服务、数字要素驱动等行业销售收入同比增速分别达31.6%、29.7%、20.5%，反 映数字经济与现代服务业正加速融合。与此同时，居民服务等生活性服务业销售收入同比增长15.2%， 较上年全年提高16.2个百分点，呈现出较强活力。 国家税务总局江西省税务局相关负责人表示，税务部门将深入实施数字化转型条件下的税费征管"强基 工程"，精准落实税费政策，持续优化税费服务，不断规范税务执法，维护公平竞争秩序，服务各类经 营主体发展壮大，助推江西经济持续回升向好。(杨夏、艾鋆、杨涛) 税收数据显示，2025年一季度，江西省经营主体开票销售收入同比增长3.4%，反映出全省经济运行起 步平稳、稳中有进，延续回升向好态势。 制造业步伐稳健，实体经济支撑有力。制造业是立国之本、强国之基。增值税发票数据显示，一季度全 省制 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price is volatile, and attention should be paid to correction risks [14] - US Dollar Index: Short - term volatility [18] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term weak and volatile [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [24] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation [28] - Thermal Coal: Price may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] - Iron Ore: Short - term weak and volatile [31] - Edible Oils: Expected to be volatile under the influence of US biofuel policies [35] - Coking Coal/Coke: Weak in the medium - and long - term [36] - Sugar: Second consecutive year of production increase brings little pressure to the market [41] - Corn Starch: CS07 - C07 may remain in low - level oscillation [43] - Cotton: Cautiously optimistic about the future, but short - term may be volatile due to insufficient demand [47] - Corn: Spot and futures prices are expected to rise [48] - Live Pigs: Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [50] - Soybean Meal: Futures prices are temporarily volatile [54] - Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil: Short - term single - side light - position waiting and see, spot hedging on rebounds [59] - Alumina: Suggest waiting and seeing [62] - Lithium Carbonate: Long - term bearish, but short - term decline space is limited [64] - Polysilicon: Uncertain, pay attention to supply - side changes [68] - Industrial Silicon: Spot price may bottom out, but short - side risks exist for futures [70] - Nickel: Short - term range - bound operation, consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term [73] - Lead: Short - term waiting and seeing, start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [75] - Zinc: Short - term shorting on rebounds, consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [77] - Carbon Emissions: Short - term volatility [79] - Crude Oil: Weak short - term rebound drivers [83] - Bottle Chips: Processing fees are expected to remain low, pay attention to supply - side changes [85] - Soda Ash: Short - term support from maintenance, medium - term shorting on rebounds [86] - Float Glass: Prices will remain low, pay attention to real - estate policy changes [88] Core Views - Tariff issues between the US and the EU have a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has triggered market risk - aversion, affecting the prices of gold, the US dollar, and stock index futures. The postponement of tariffs has also changed market sentiment and expectations [12][13][17] - The supply and demand situation in the commodity market is complex. In the coal market, over - supply persists, and prices are under pressure. In the agricultural product market, factors such as production, inventory, and consumption seasons affect prices. In the metal market, factors like production capacity, inventory, and policy adjustments play important roles [29][39][64] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU and 25% tariffs on Apple, which triggered market risk - aversion and pushed up gold prices. Then he postponed the EU tariff deadline to July 9. Short - term gold prices are volatile, and the next wave of increase needs a catalyst [12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump postponed the EU tariff deadline, indicating that the US and the EU have entered a negotiation window. The short - term market risk preference has increased, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US - EU tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the risk of tariff hikes still exists. The market sentiment has weakened, and US stocks are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 1425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market lacks a clear trading theme, and the bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Bank deposit and large - scale certificate of deposit interest rates have been lowered. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has put pressure on global risk assets, and domestic stock index futures suggest balanced allocation [25][28] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - South Korea's coal imports in April decreased by 20.16% year - on - year. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high - cost imported coal has been squeezed out. Coal prices may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in May, but it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The full - production time of the Iron Bridge project has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. Iron ore prices are in an oscillating market, and are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [31] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased in May, and export data varied. The US biofuel policy affects soybean oil prices. The edible oil market is expected to be volatile [34][35] 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is weakly stable. Coking coal prices are falling, and the supply - demand structure is difficult to change without significant supply - side cuts. Coal and coke are expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 24/25 sugar - making season in the country has ended. Yunnan's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. Although the national sugar production has increased, the pressure on the market is not large due to the fast sales progress [39] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start - up rate of starch sugar has increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of starch is expected to improve. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in low - level oscillation [42][43] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - EU clothing imports increased in March, mainly due to price increases. China's cotton exports increased in April. US cotton new - crop signing is sluggish. Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile in the short - term, and the future is cautiously optimistic [44][45][47] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn warehouse receipts reached a high, and the basis turned positive. The new wheat crop may have a reduced yield. Corn supply and demand gap has not been filled, and prices are expected to rise [48] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The market supply of live pigs will continue to be excessive in the future. It is recommended to short on rebounds [50] 2.10 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The drought area in the US soybean - producing area has decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal will gradually increase. Futures prices are temporarily volatile [51][53] 2.11 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The use of special bonds to acquire land has accelerated. Steel production and inventory data show that steel prices are under pressure, and short - term prices are expected to be oscillating [55][59] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Alumina) - National alumina inventory decreased. Prices increased slightly. Alumina production capacity is expected to gradually recover [60][61] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The EU has postponed two matters of the battery bill, giving Chinese lithium - battery enterprises a buffer. The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but the short - term decline space is limited [63][64] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic enterprise plans to invest in Indonesia. Polysilicon prices are slightly falling. The supply - demand situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [65][66] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon technical transformation project has started. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is not improving. Spot prices lack the impetus to rebound [69] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased. The supply - demand situation of nickel is complex, with limited upward and downward space. Short - term range - bound operation and medium - term shorting on rebounds are recommended [71][73] 2.17 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The supply - demand situation of lead is weak in the short - term, but medium - term long opportunities are emerging [74] 2.18 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is at a discount. Zinc mine processing fees are increasing, and supply is expected to be loose. Short - term shorting on rebounds and medium - term long - short spreads are recommended [76][77] 2.19 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are oscillating. Future temperature and wind power generation in Europe will affect carbon prices [78] 2.20 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Iran - US nuclear negotiations are progressing. US oil drilling rigs have decreased. Short - term crude oil price rebound drivers are weak [80][81] 2.21 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, with partial slight decreases. Supply pressure is increasing, and processing fees are expected to remain low [84][85] 2.22 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are falling. Supply is slightly adjusted, and demand is average. Short - term maintenance may support prices, and medium - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [86] 2.23 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are falling. The spot market is stable in some areas and weak in others. Glass prices are expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]

4月份政治局会议落地，加紧加快已有政策中长期应对关税冲击 ——择机改适时宽松落地触发点看国内，短债走势或继续弱于长债 2025 - 4 - 2 7 中泰期货研究所宏观团队 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询从业证书号： Z0015266 TEL：13361063969 01 逻辑与策略（P3-4） 目 录 CONTENTS 02 宏观主要资产资金流向变化（P5-6） 03 近期宏观数据分析与回顾（P7-13） 04 资金面分析与债券期现指标监控（P14-24） 05 权益宽基指数基本面、流动性与期现指标监控（P25-29） 06 宏观经济中期基本面跟踪监控（P30-46） 07 宏观经济长波基本面跟踪监控（P47-48） 逻辑与观点：择机改适时宽松落地触发点看国内，短债走势或继续弱于长债 返回目录 ◆ 宏观数据与逻辑：当周国内公布规上工业企业利润数据，3月份当月同比增速明显回落+1-3月份累计增速回升，贡献项主要是有色金属、专用设备、电气机械和器材，库存形态变化不明显。宏观方 面看企业利润未来会处于缺乏弹性状态，库存形态反映了企业层面补库意愿弱+库存也无力度的结论。海外市场方面，美国经济数据有明显 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights various industry malpractices exposed during the CCTV "3·15" gala, including issues with sanitary products, high-interest electronic loans, and privacy violations [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is intensifying efforts to combat false information in the stock market, focusing on early and severe penalties for violators [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has announced a significant increase in product quality inspections, particularly for items posing safety risks [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the increased openness to foreign investment in China's service sector, with actual foreign investment reaching 120.49 billion yuan in the first two months of the year, accounting for over 70% of total foreign investment [5] - A new national food safety reporting system is set to launch in May, aimed at improving internal reporting channels for food safety violations [5] - The "National Consumer Association Smart 315 Platform" has been launched to enhance consumer engagement and address issues related to smart technology [5] Group 3 - Insurance companies have been actively increasing their stakes in listed companies, with seven companies being targeted this year, primarily in the banking sector [9] - Strategic metals have seen a price surge, particularly antimony and cobalt, leading to significant gains in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector [9] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is conducting targeted visits to listed companies to provide support and address their concerns [9] Group 4 - The article notes that the CSRC has issued administrative penalties for stock manipulation, with fines totaling approximately 2.8 billion yuan for one individual and 1.8 billion yuan for another [10] - Airlines have issued warnings regarding third-party sales practices that violate passenger rights, including excessive fees for ticket changes [10] - The article mentions the exposure of a new financial scam involving mobile phone lotteries, with specific companies being named [10] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is investigating companies involved in illegal marketing practices, particularly those using automated calls for promotions [17] - The Central Internet Information Office is promoting digital rural development to enhance agricultural productivity and digital literacy [17] - The State Administration for Market Regulation reported a significant increase in product recalls, with 1,100 instances in 2024, a 42.7% increase from the previous year [17] Group 6 - The article highlights the successful launch of a large unmanned transport aircraft in China, which is expected to be operational by 2026 [18] - The completion of a major energy storage project marks a significant advancement in the integration of renewable energy sources [18] - The article discusses the investigation into a company involved in the production of substandard sanitary products, leading to regulatory actions [18]