| 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 5 | 4139.49 | 22.08 | 0.54% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 1 | 14361.70 | 70.14 | 0.49% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | VW | 3309.77 | 1.51 | 0.05% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | VW | 4725.91 | 18.36 | 0.39% | | 000016 | FJESO | m | 3054.78 | 13.46 | 0.44% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | W | 1791.83 | -6.38 | -0.35% | | 000688 | 科创20 | | 1457.04 | -8.32 | -0.57% | | 899050 | - REFF 0 | | 1531.61 | -3.83 | -0.25% | | 868008 | 万得微盘股指数 ~~ | | 631109.18 | 5154.25 | 0 ...

Group 1 - The long-term trend of A-shares remains stable and positive, with a focus on "quality" over "quantity" in 2026, emphasizing new productive forces and the "anti-involution" theme as the main line for the year [1][4] - The A-share market experienced significant volatility at the end of January, with rapid sector rotation, and the volatility focused on two main lines: AI-driven technology narratives and resource allocation related to geopolitical issues [1] - The combination of AI and precious metals has seen simultaneous price increases since the second half of 2025, leading to strong closing intentions among holders of this hedging combination [2] Group 2 - The new Federal Reserve Chairman nominee, Waller, advocates for a "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts" policy, aiming to restore the market's interest rate discovery mechanism and optimize resource allocation [3] - Market expectations suggest two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each after June 2026, in line with the Trump administration's efforts to alleviate fiscal deficit pressures [3] - The AI sector, particularly investments in upstream hardware related to data centers and grid facilities, is expected to drive economic growth, with supply constraints in storage, chips, and liquid cooling [4]

Group 1 - Energy and raw material prices are experiencing a phase of decline, with January PPI decreasing by 1.4% month-on-month, a reduction of 5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The prices in the oil and gas extraction industry fell by 16.7%, while the prices in the oil, coal, and other fuel processing industries dropped by 11.5% [2][11] - The overall energy-related industries are in a deep negative growth zone, significantly dragging down the PPI. Although some non-energy sectors, such as non-ferrous metals and electronics manufacturing, are seeing price recoveries, the high weight and large declines in the energy sector continue to be a major factor in the year-on-year negative PPI for January [2][11] - The January CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 0.2%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by a high base from last year's Spring Festival and current weak food prices. The core CPI year-on-year growth rate recorded 0.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3][4] Group 2 - The CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to 0.2%, with food prices turning from growth to a decline of -0.7%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points. The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits increased by 6.9% and 3.2%, respectively, while pork and egg prices decreased by 13.7% and 10.6% [4][7] - Non-food prices saw a year-on-year growth rate decrease of 0.4 percentage points to 0.4%. Energy prices fell by 5% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the CPI decline, with gasoline prices down by 11.4% [4][7] - The January PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of narrowing. The prices of production materials recorded a year-on-year growth rate of -1.3%, while living materials saw a decline of -1.7% [11][14]

Industry News - Recent rumors about adjusting the value-added tax rates for the gaming and financial industries have been circulating on some online platforms. Experts confirm that these rumors lack credibility, as the highest VAT rate in China is clearly defined at 13% and a rate of 32% does not exist [24] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the trading margin levels and price fluctuation limits for certain gold and silver contracts. Starting from February 4, 2026, the margin for gold contracts will increase from 16% to 17%, and the price fluctuation limit will rise from 15% to 16%. For silver contracts, the margin will decrease from 26% to 23% [24] - Data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows that in January 2026, there were 4.9158 million new A-share accounts opened, representing a month-on-month increase of 89% and a year-on-year increase of 213% compared to January 2025 [24] Company News - Guizhou Moutai announced that as of the end of January 2026, it has repurchased a total of 416,900 shares, with a total expenditure of 571 million yuan [26] - It was reported that Cambricon's revenue for 2026 is expected to reach 20 billion yuan, although this figure is significantly below expectations. The company stated that it has not organized any small-scale communications recently and has not provided any revenue guidance [26] - One Automobile Liberation announced plans to use no more than 10 billion yuan of its own funds for entrusted wealth management [26] - Hongfu Technology announced a contract worth 480 million yuan with Guangdong Quanxiang to provide robots and other products [26] - CATL reported that as of January 31, it has repurchased 15.9908 million A-shares, with a total transaction amount of 4.386 billion yuan [26]

Group 1 - The Central Government's No. 1 Document for 2026 emphasizes the development of new agricultural productivity and the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, promoting applications of drones, IoT, and robotics [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] - In January 2026, A-share new accounts reached 4.9158 million, a month-on-month increase of 89% and a year-on-year increase of 213% compared to January 2025 [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce reported that the effects of the old-for-new appliance and digital product subsidy policies are becoming evident, with sales of 6 categories of home appliances and 4 categories of digital products exceeding 15 million units and sales revenue nearing 59 billion yuan in January [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in retail prices for gasoline and diesel by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively [5] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including copper concentrate, which has high trade volume and liquidity, in its reserve scope [6] Group 3 - Some rumors regarding adjustments to the value-added tax rates for the gaming and financial sectors have been circulating, but experts and industry insiders have stated that these rumors lack authenticity [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts to 19% and changed the margin requirements for maintaining positions to 20% [8] - Ningde Times announced a share buyback of 15.9908 million A-shares as of January 31, while Kweichow Moutai reported a buyback of 416,900 shares by the end of January 2026 [9] Group 4 - Han Jian He Shan announced plans to acquire 99.9978% of Xingfu New Materials, adding a PEEK business line [10] - Fulin Precision announced a capital increase in its subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua in collaboration with Ningde Times [10] - Hongfu Han announced a contract worth 480 million yuan with Guangdong Quanxiang to provide robotics and other products [10] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures rose by 6.83% to $4,970.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 10.27% to $84.915 per ounce [13] - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill for multiple federal departments, resolving a partial government shutdown that began on January 31 [14] - The U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea [16] Group 6 - WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.72% to $63.21 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.55% to $67.33 per barrel [17] - Major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, Nasdaq down 1.43%, and S&P 500 down 0.83%, while precious metals saw gains [18] - AMD reported fourth-quarter revenue of $10.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and a net profit of $2.52 billion, up 42% year-on-year [19]

以下文章来源于中欧瑞博 ，作者吴伟志 中欧瑞博 . 中欧瑞博，百亿老牌金牛私募，专注于证券二级市场投资，投资理念：坚持与伟大企业共同成长，尊重趋势 策略适配。在这里，读懂股市的春夏秋冬！ 全文字数 | 4538字 阅读时长 | 11分钟 2026年开年仅一个月，全球政经、地缘政治、大宗商品、资本市场便不断上演大戏，很多都是史无前例的，让人目不暇接。面对国际新旧秩序的转换，许 多人迷茫纠结。资本市场历来都有一月预言的说法，其含义就是每一年的第一个月资本市场的表现，往往对这一年有着预示效应。 开年的第一个月，最吸引眼球的是大宗商品，尤其是有色金属出现了暴涨 + 暴跌的行情。 承接2025年强劲的走势，一开年，银、金、铜、铝、 锂等有色金属价格持续走强，多方势如破竹，几乎一路单边上涨，到1月29日最高价，银、金、铜、铝、锂几种商品涨幅分别为69.95%、 29.65%、16.25%、11.9%、55.43%。有色金属的价格上涨速度之快、幅度之大，极为罕见。 北京时间1月31日凌晨，纽约期银主力合约在周四创出121.785美元历史新高后转头向下，最低跌至74美元，日内跌幅35%，现货白银跌破74.6美 元，日内跌幅达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market showed mixed performance on January 30, with the Nikkei 225 index slightly declining by 0.10% while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 0.59% [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 52.75 points at 53,322.85 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index increased by 21.02 points to 3,566.32 points [1] - Early trading saw the Nikkei index fluctuate around the previous day's closing price, reflecting a consolidation phase [1] - The market experienced a significant drop of over 450 points due to increased profit-taking in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, particularly affecting companies like Advantest [1] Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with notable increases in the airline, oil and coal products, and real estate sectors [1] - Conversely, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction, and metal products experienced declines [1] Company Highlights - Companies like Casio and Fujitsu saw substantial gains following the announcement of upgraded earnings forecasts [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Global Market Trends**: The global equity markets performed well in 2025, with a notable bull market in both U.S. stocks and bonds driven by the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and a trend towards de-dollarization. However, market fragmentation risks due to U.S.-China tensions need to be monitored [1][2] - **Japanese Yen Depreciation**: The Japanese yen has depreciated to its lowest level since 1985, with high inflation preventing effective interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. This divergence between nominal and real interest rates may persist until 2026, impacting emerging markets [1][4] - **High Leverage Risks**: The ratio of private sector credit to GDP has reached a new high, posing potential risks that could emerge in emerging markets and drag down developed economies. This high leverage is a significant precursor to cyclical risks [1][5] China Market Insights - **Chinese Stock and Bond Markets**: In 2025, China's stock market showed strength while the bond market was weak, indicating increased economic and social confidence. Large capital inflows suggest a favorable investment environment [1][7] - **Economic Performance**: China's GDP growth rate for 2025 was 5%. Despite moderate domestic demand, significant capital inflows were observed, similar to Japan's past experiences. The strategy of leveraging low-interest debt to invest in high-yield overseas assets is recommended [1][8] - **Government Bond Market**: The three-year government bond market in China has been adjusting, with M1 growth and positive PPI putting pressure on the bond market. The behavior of financial institutions, particularly brokerages, has shifted towards shorting in Q4 2025 [1][9][10] Monetary Policy Changes - **Central Bank Policy Shifts**: The central bank's monetary policy has shifted from emphasizing increased control to focusing on the integrated effects of incremental and stock policies. This indicates a more moderate approach to monetary easing in 2026, with lowered expectations for interest rate cuts [1][11] Commodity Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Gold and copper have shown strong performance, with gold favored as a risk hedge by central banks and sovereign institutions. The demand for copper is influenced by supply-demand structural issues, particularly in the U.S. and China [1][13][14] - **Investment Strategies**: Gold is viewed as a hedge rather than a high-return investment, with attention needed on futures pricing and market limitations. Copper prices are expected to remain strong unless significant negative news arises [1][16][20] Future Projections - **Economic Growth and Interest Rates**: There are differing views on the U.S. economic growth and interest rate outlook for 2026, with some expecting significant rate cuts due to a lack of recovery in traditional industries and others believing that limited cuts will suffice for recovery [1][27][28] - **Gold Market Dynamics**: The gold market is expected to remain bullish, driven by central bank purchases and ETF inflows. The potential for a 10%-15% price correction exists if economic recovery leads to rising real interest rates [1][29][55] Structural Opportunities - **Long-term Gold Demand**: Emerging market countries are increasingly diversifying their reserves into gold, which could significantly impact global demand. The interest from institutional investors in gold is also on the rise [1][23][51] Conclusion - The global economic landscape is characterized by significant fragmentation, high leverage risks, and evolving monetary policies. The Chinese market shows resilience with strong capital inflows, while commodities like gold and copper present both opportunities and challenges. The outlook for 2026 remains cautiously optimistic, with careful monitoring of macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments essential for investment strategies.

凯投宏观英国首席经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示，目前英国经济每季度仅增长0.2%至0.3%，若冲击一次性 到来，可能引发经济衰退。 2026年1月19日，受美欧贸易关系紧张影响，避险情绪大幅升温，资金回流黄金白银等贵金属，金价早 盘触及4698美元后小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货收涨1.77%报4676.7美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)涨1.58%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨2.29%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨0.38%。 有经济学家警告称，如果美国总统特朗普迅速推进新的关税威胁，英国将面临经济衰退风险。根据世界 银行对英国经济增长的评估，如果特朗普将关税自6月起提高至25%，英国经济可能遭受216亿英镑的损 失。据凯投宏观测算，英国GDP将下降0.3%至0.75%。 相关分析指出，特朗普总统任期内，美国的关税政策非常频繁且具有反复性，涉及多个方面，包括与地 缘敏感地区的矿产金属贸易关系。尽管2025年已经表现出紧张和博弈加剧的态势，但预计2026年这些关 系仍将存在反复，需要持续关注。近期华尔街频繁上调黄金目标价，其中美银和摩根大通认为金价有望 最终触及6000美元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillating upwards [2] Core Viewpoints - The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and platinum and palladium prices are maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The prices of GFEX platinum and palladium main contracts dropped on January 15, with platinum down 4.11% and palladium down 4.62% [1] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices may continue to oscillate widely in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa faces risks, while demand in various fields is expanding, and the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] - The short - term palladium price may also oscillate widely. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Summary by Related Aspects Platinum - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram, down 4.11% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks will keep the price in a wide - range oscillation. Investors are advised to manage risks and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: South Africa, the main supplier, faces power supply and extreme weather risks. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] Palladium - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 478.6 yuan/gram, down 4.62% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: The price may oscillate widely. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Commodity Index (January 15, 2026) - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2439.09, down 0.39%; the commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%; the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35% [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index (January 15, 2026) - The index value was 2854.45, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.13%, a 1 - month increase of 12.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.27% [49]