公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 经营筑底中，紧盯调整进展 事项： 公司发布 2025 年三季报。25 年前三季度实现总营收 40.49 亿元，同比-12.88%； 归母净利润 2.98 亿元，同比-31.49%；扣非归母净利润 2.89 亿元，同比-30.33%。 单 Q3 实现营收 14.37 亿元，同比-11.64%；归母净利润 0.94 亿元，同比-35.05%； 扣非归母净利 0.94 亿元，同比-30.96%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6087 | 5415 | 5641 | 5928 | | 同比增速(%) | -9.9% | -11.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 522 | 379 | 430 | 470 | | 同比增速(%) | -9.1% | -27.4% | 13.4% | 9.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.9% year-on-year [1][5]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.118 billion yuan, a 22.0% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 65 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.046 billion yuan, up 14.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, reflecting a 15.1% increase [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue growth was driven by significant increases in the cream segment, which saw a 61.8% year-on-year increase, while other segments like frozen baking and sauces experienced declines [1][5]. - The revenue distribution across channels in 2024 was 57% from circulation, 25% from supermarkets, and 18% from catering, with circulation and catering channels showing growth of approximately 15% and 20% respectively [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.5%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net profit margin improved to 6.9%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 2025, driven by clear growth drivers such as cream products, Sam's Club, and catering [1][5]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to be 1.97 yuan, with further increases to 2.26 yuan in 2026 and 2.59 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][5]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 49.5 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times for 2025 [1][5].