Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market, driven primarily by ETF investments, with over 600 billion HKD accumulated this year [1][6] - In March, the net inflow of funds into mainland investable Hong Kong stock ETFs reached a record 23.4 billion HKD, followed by nearly 35 billion HKD in April, indicating strong investor interest [2][6] - The overall scale of Hong Kong stock ETFs reached 178.99 billion HKD by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a 45% increase from the previous quarter [7] Group 2 - Active equity funds have increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with the allocation ratio exceeding 30%, the highest in nearly five years [10] - The top stocks favored by active equity funds include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and Pop Mart, with significant increases in their holdings [11] - The inflow of southbound funds is expected to continue, with estimates suggesting an additional 200 to 300 billion HKD for the year, driven by both active equity funds and insurance capital [14][15] Group 3 - The article discusses the performance of Hong Kong stock ETFs during market fluctuations, noting that despite a decline in indices, ETF investments have remained robust [4][5] - The analysis indicates that the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is attractive compared to A-shares and US stocks, which is a key factor in attracting investment [5][6] - The outlook for the technology sector in Hong Kong remains positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by AI and other technological advancements [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since 2025, driven by the DeepSeek concept and southbound capital, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 40% year-to-date [1] Southbound Capital Flow - As of mid-April, southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of 604.1 billion HKD, nearing 75% of the total inflow for 2024 [3] - The size of mainland investable Hong Kong stock ETFs surged to 179 billion HKD by the end of Q1, a 45% increase quarter-on-quarter, with March alone seeing a net inflow of 23.4 billion HKD [3] - The trend indicates a significant shift towards ETF investments by individual investors, contrasting with the relatively stable growth of active equity public funds [3] Fund Holdings Structure - Public funds are increasingly concentrating on new economy sectors, with their holdings in these areas rising from 71% in Q4 2024 to 79.3% [4] - Key sectors benefiting from increased allocations include e-commerce, semiconductors, biotechnology, and media entertainment, while traditional sectors like consumer services and energy are seeing a decline [4] - The concentration of holdings among public funds has reached a five-year high, with the top three holdings (Tencent, Alibaba, SMIC) accounting for 39.8% of the market value of the top 100 holdings [4] Future Southbound Capital Potential - Projections suggest that total southbound capital inflow for 2025 could reach between 800 billion to 1 trillion HKD, with a certain increase of 200 to 300 billion HKD expected [5] - If the proportion of active equity fund holdings rises to 35-40%, it could contribute an additional 75 to 150 billion HKD [5] - The emotional-driven nature of ETF investments may increase market volatility, making precise predictions challenging [5] Market Outlook - The Hang Seng Index target scenarios include a baseline of 20,500 points, an optimistic scenario reaching 23,000 to 24,000 points, and a pessimistic scenario dropping to 18,000 to 19,000 points [6] - Investment strategies should focus on internet technology stocks with low export exposure, cyclical sectors like consumption and infrastructure if fiscal policies are strengthened, and closely monitor export-related sectors for U.S. tariff policy changes [6]