要点 随着中东和非洲（MEA）消费科技市场从硬件转向服务，媒体和娱乐支出正快速增长，预计到2027年将达 到360亿美元。在这一趋势推动下，生态系统合作正成为驱动市场增长的关键框架。 Omdia在本文中探讨了厂商、电信运营商和零售商如何成为服务提供商不可或缺的合作伙伴 ，共同推动捆 绑订阅模式（bundled subscription models）的兴起，使区域价值链从一次性设备销售转向长期、可持续的 收入模式。 硬件依然是中东非消费科技生态的基石。智能手机和个人电脑是用户进行连接、流媒体观看、游戏娱乐和交易 活动的核心载体。Omdia的数据显示，硬件收入预计将从2020年的329亿美元增长至2027年的约419亿美元，但 服务和订阅业务的增长速度更快。媒体和娱乐支出——涵盖OTT（在线视频）、音乐和游戏等领域——预计将 在同期几乎翻倍，从180亿美元增至360亿美元。 从全球范围来看，在部分市场，服务收入已经超过设备销售。例如，在西欧，媒体与娱乐支出已高于消费设备 销售。中东非地区虽尚未达到这一水平，但增长趋势十分明显。以海湾合作委员会（GCC）市场为例，当地 电信运营商的平均每用户收入（ARPU）超过2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market rally is driven by strong corporate earnings rather than liquidity, indicating a shift from a "liquidity bull market" to an "earnings bull market" [3][6][20] - Corporate earnings have stabilized for three consecutive quarters, with the "Earnings Revision Breadth" indicator turning positive for the MSCI China Index in August, signaling a recovery in companies' profit-generating capabilities [4][25] - The market is experiencing significant internal differentiation, with hot sectors like technology, internet, finance, and biotechnology showing strong earnings growth, while traditional sectors like consumer goods and real estate are facing downward revisions [7][11][29] Group 2 - AI is not a bubble; leading companies in China are significantly undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts, with the potential for substantial profit contributions from AI integration into their existing businesses [12][13][25] - The market is witnessing a fundamental shift in foreign investment, with over 90% of U.S. investors expressing plans to increase exposure to Chinese stocks, particularly in sectors where China has established global leadership [14][30] - Key sectors attracting foreign investment include humanoid robotics, automation, and biotechnology, indicating a strategic shift in how foreign investors view China from a mere emerging market to a core asset in the global tech race [15][16][30]

Group 1 - Core Point 1: The current market rally is not merely driven by liquidity but is supported by improving corporate earnings fundamentals, as indicated by the positive Earnings Revision Breadth for the MSCI China Index in August [4][5][6][27]. - Core Point 2: Identifying the right sectors is crucial, with strong performance expected in technology, internet, finance, and biotechnology, while traditional sectors like consumer goods and real estate are facing downward revisions in earnings expectations [7][9][10][11][31]. - Core Point 3: AI is not a bubble; leading companies in China are significantly undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts, with the potential for substantial growth as they leverage AI for business enhancement [12][13][14][15]. Group 2 - Core Point 4: Foreign investment interest in the Chinese stock market is increasing, particularly among U.S. investors, with over 90% expressing plans to increase their exposure to Chinese equities, focusing on sectors where China has established global leadership [16][17][18][32][33]. - Core Point 5: The market dynamics are shifting towards a more structured environment, emphasizing the need for investors to focus on companies with core competitiveness that can withstand economic cycles, rather than relying on macroeconomic trends [20][21][22][23][24].

国庆假期深度研读了摩根士丹利首席中国股票策略师 Laura Wang 的最新访谈， 这不仅仅是一次采访 ， 更像是一份来自华尔街顶级投行的 " 牛 市说明书 " 。 本文把其中的四大核心观点 ， 用最简单方式为你拆解 ， 相信一定能帮你看清前路 。 01 核心观点一 ： 这不是 " 水牛 " ， 是 " 业绩牛 " 很多人将这轮上涨归因于美联储的降息预期 ， 认为是全球 " 放水 " 导致的 " 水牛行情 " ， 根基不稳 ， 来得快去得也快 。 但Laura Wang用 一个关键数据直接戳破了这个普遍的误解 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：憨憨的禅兄 来源：雪球 她指出 ， 作为股市的 " 心脏 " ， 企业盈利的基本面 ， 已经连续三个季度企稳了 。 更重要的是一个专业指标 —— " 盈利修正广度 " （ Earnings Revision Breadth ） 。 这词听着专业 ， 其实很好理解 ， 你可以把它想像成全市场所有分析师的一次 " 集体投票 " 。 如果上调A公 司盈利预期的分析师 ， 比下调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming market trends will be driven by improving corporate earnings, with a focus on AI and overseas expansion as key investment themes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The liquidity-driven market rally is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and positive sentiment from potential U.S.-China meetings at the APEC summit [2][4]. - In September, external risks eased, leading to a rebound in Chinese stocks listed abroad, with the MSCI China Index rising by 6.1% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 7.8% [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to perform well in the fourth quarter due to reduced uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations and strong inflows from foreign and southbound capital [4]. Group 2: Earnings Outlook - Corporate earnings are expected to become the main driving force for the market, with major Chinese stock indices' earnings growth projected to reach double digits next year [5]. - After significant downward adjustments, earnings expectations for the MSCI China Index and the Hang Seng Index have stabilized, indicating that previous negative impacts have been accounted for [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on AI and overseas expansion, as these areas are likely to yield better returns amidst the ongoing market rotation [2][6]. - Recent market behavior shows a rotation of funds from crowded sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals to undervalued technology sectors related to AI, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [6].

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业、公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,128 | -1.35 | 30.25 | | 恒生国企 | 9,303 | -1.49 | 27.62 | | 恒生科技 | 6,195 | -2.89 | 38.65 | | 上证综指 | 3,828 | -0.65 | 14.21 | | 深证综指 | 2,471 | -1.54 | 26.22 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,152 | -2.60 | 47.16 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,247 | 0.65 | 8.70 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,644 | 0.59 | 12.96 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,484 | 0.44 | 16.43 | | 德国 DAX | 23,739 | 0.87 | 19.24 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong stocks in H1 2025 have stabilized and achieved positive growth, with net profit margins and ROE remaining at high levels, indicating robust operational efficiency [1][5] Group 1: Overall Performance - Hong Kong stocks in H1 2025 recorded revenue and profit growth rates of 1.9% and 4.6% respectively, despite facing significant pressure [1] - The overall net profit margin has increased quarter-on-quarter, while ROE has slightly decreased year-on-year to 5.2%, reflecting stable operational efficiency [1] - Among the 107 stocks with effective mid-year reports, nearly 50% exceeded profit expectations, indicating better-than-expected performance in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-growth sectors include technology, healthcare, and materials, while energy, public utilities, real estate, and most consumer sectors continue to face performance pressures [2][3] - The technology sector's profit growth remains strong at 11.2%, outperforming stagnant growth in the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [1] - The materials and industrial sectors are experiencing upward profit growth, while energy-related sectors are under pressure due to low demand and falling prices [2] Group 3: Defensive and Financial Sectors - Public utilities are under pressure, particularly electricity companies facing demand shortages and price declines, while telecommunications maintain around 5% profit growth [3] - The financial sector shows steady growth, with non-bank financials performing well due to a booming stock market and specific asset restructuring [3] - Insurance sector growth remains moderate, while banks continue to experience low single-digit growth due to narrowing net interest margins [3] Group 4: Growth Sectors - The technology sector benefits from hardware and semiconductor demand, with gaming and software companies also showing positive growth [4] - The healthcare sector is seeing steady growth, particularly in medical devices and services, while biotech is entering a performance realization phase [4] - Consumer sectors are mixed, with home appliances and media entertainment showing growth, while other consumer segments face profit pressures [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Full-year performance expectations have improved post-earnings reports, with upward revisions in most sectors, particularly in materials, healthcare, and finance [5] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a rebound in performance growth, especially in real estate, essential consumption, public utilities, and energy sectors [5] - The focus for investment strategies should be on sectors with high or improving growth prospects, such as metals, retail, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market indices reached all-time highs, driven by economic data that met expectations and initial jobless claims indicating a cooling job market, which investors interpreted as a signal for potential continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed in the U.S., saw a significant increase of 2.89%, largely due to Alibaba's strong performance, which surged by 8% [2][4] Group 2: Commodity and Bond Market Movements - Industrial metals and agricultural commodities experienced widespread price increases, influenced by the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in 2025, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond briefly fell below the 4% mark [4] - Despite the positive sentiment in other commodities, gold prices fluctuated and closed lower, reflecting a complex relationship with interest rate expectations [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Microsoft and OpenAI announced a non-binding agreement that allows OpenAI to advance its restructuring plans, with OpenAI's non-profit parent company retaining significant equity [7] - Warner Bros. Discovery's market capitalization exceeded $30 billion, with potential acquisition costs exceeding $60 billion when factoring in debt, as the Ellison family considers a full acquisition [8] - Apple faced a significant downgrade from two investment banks, marking the largest cold reception from Wall Street in five years, with its recommendation consistency dropping to 3.9, the lowest since early 2020 [9]

美股周四盘中，美国大型媒体集团华纳兄弟探索公司股价异动拉升，一度涨超30%。市场消息称，上个月才刚 完成派拉蒙并购交易的埃里森家族，将财大气粗地发起另一项巨额收购交易。 但要收购华纳兄弟探索，牵涉到的资金得多出一个量级。在最新消息出炉前，华纳兄弟探索的市值就已经超过 300亿美元，再加上300多亿美元的债务，完全收购所需资金可能会超过600亿美元。 据悉，派拉蒙天空之舞此时提出收购是为了先发制人，争取在苹果、亚马逊等财力雄厚的科技巨头出手前搞定 交易。 作为背景，派拉蒙天空之舞背后站着的正是地球第二大富豪、昨日一度登顶世界首富的拉里·埃里森。根据统 计，昨日收盘时埃里森的身家高达3830亿美元，比马斯克只少10亿。 经过一连串的交易后，由埃里森之子大卫·埃里森领导的天空之舞财团8月初刚完成对派拉蒙的收购，将哥伦比 亚广播公司（CBS）、音乐电视网（MTV）、尼克儿童频道、喜剧中心等电视网络，以及派拉蒙影业及同名流 媒体服务收入囊中。 据爆料，埃里森家族为这笔交易掏出60亿美元，另外20亿美元由红鸟资本提供。 不过考虑到报价尚未正式提出，交易的前景依然存疑。据一位熟悉内情的人士透露，华纳兄弟首席执行官大卫· 扎 ...

Core Insights - Larry Ellison, co-founder of Oracle, briefly became the world's richest person due to a 43% surge in the company's stock price, increasing his wealth by nearly $90 billion in one day, reaching a total of $383 billion, just $10 billion behind Tesla's CEO Elon Musk [1] - The surge in Oracle's stock price was driven by the announcement of over $450 billion in cloud service reserve orders and multi-billion dollar computing contracts with Nvidia and OpenAI, with expectations of signing additional contracts exceeding $10 billion in the coming months, potentially pushing total orders beyond $500 billion [1] - Ellison's family business interests have expanded, including an $8 billion acquisition of Paramount Global, funded partly by family wealth, and a collaboration with SoftBank's Masayoshi Son and OpenAI's Sam Altman on a $500 billion data center project utilizing Oracle technology [1] Company Overview - Oracle's market capitalization is approaching $1 trillion, reflecting its significant growth and investor interest [2]