↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 治雨 来源：雪球 01 引言 本文将以更详实的数据和更底层的逻辑 ， 为您补全今年玉米行情的分析拼图 。 为何饲料对玉米品质要求高 我觉得这个题目就和一句废话一样 ， 似乎讲了些啥 ， 似乎又啥也没讲 。 因为饲料对玉米品质高太天经地义了 ， 他就该品质高 ！ 养殖业 的动物和我们人类一样 ， 吃五谷杂粮长大 ， 就如同我们人类重视食品安全一样 ， 这就是本应该的事儿 。 如果非要阐述具体原因 ， 那就是长期受潮发霉的玉米 ， 产生的一些毒素 ， 会影响动物的健康 、 生长速度 、 料肉比 。 屠宰后的肉类人类食 用以后 ， 也会有健康安全隐患 ， 所以饲料对玉米品质要求高 ， 没毛病 ！ 本节讨论真正重要的问题点是 ： 为何以前这都不是问题 ， 而今年却是玉米供应的大事儿呢 ？ 显而易见 ， 虽然我们2025年秋收以来算玉米总 产量是维持基本平衡的 ， 甚至还略有增加 ， 但由于在秋收季节持续40余天的连续烂场雨导致的霉变问题 ， 使得饲料玉米的 " 有效供给 " 出现 了坍缩 ...

9月以来，河南、山东、河北和陕西、山西、安徽、江苏部分夏播玉米主产区迎来持续降雨，新季玉米 产量、质量受到一定影响。同时，国产小麦价格不断走高，且今年我国进口玉米及替代品数量降幅较 大。笔者调研发现，未来东北玉米可能承担满足国内饲料加工及养殖企业原料需求的"重任"。 夏播玉米主产区"旱涝急转" 对河南、山东、河北等夏播玉米主产区的广大农民来说，今年种植玉米的过程可以用一个字来形容，就 是"难"。 今年6月至9月下旬，期货日报记者数次深入河南、山东、河北等地对玉米生长情况进行调研。从调研情 况看，今年6月至9月初，河南、山东和河北、陕西部分地区出现持续干旱天气，河南的旱情较为严重， 特别是驻马店、南阳、周口等地，当地农民不得不想尽办法抗旱保苗。 "今年夏季，我们这里遭遇了持续高温干旱天气，尤其是在7月至8月玉米生长旺季和抽雄结穗期，38℃ 左右的高温成了'家常便饭'。有水源的地方，农民浇水四五遍才能保证玉米生长对水分的需求，但缺少 水源的地方，就不能保证了。"河南泌阳县双庙乡农民刘兴业说，他今年承包了100多亩地种植玉米和花 生，旱死或大幅减产的田块占比不小。 河南省气象局公布的统计数据显示，今年7月，河南全省 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If the estimated increase in corn production in the US, Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina is realized, the global corn market will remain relatively loose, and international corn prices will continue to trade at low levels [2][34]. - In China, the area of new - season corn is slightly increasing, and the weather has been generally favorable so far, but there are concerns about drought in some regions. The supply of old - season corn is tight, but there are supplements from wheat and imported corn auctions. The price of domestic corn is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations in the short term, but its medium - term trend will face pressure due to the approaching new - season corn harvest and lower production costs [2][34]. - In terms of operation, the old - season contracts should be treated with a range - bound approach, while a bearish view is recommended for the new - season contracts [2][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Since July, domestic corn futures and spot prices have declined. The start of the auction of imported corn by Sinograin loosened the expectation of a tight supply pattern, leading to a wave of selling by spot grain holders. Later in the month, the market sentiment stabilized, and the spot price showed a certain rebound. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts first declined and then rebounded [4]. 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 Strong Expectation of New - Season Corn Yield Increase in the US - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated that the US corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 95.2 million acres, with a yield per acre of 181 bushels and a total output of 15.705 billion bushels. The year - end carry - over inventory is 1.66 billion bushels, higher than the previous year but lower than last month's estimate. The expansion of the planting area provides a large margin of safety for supply, and the current trend of yield per acre is in a good state, with favorable weather outlook, resulting in significant pressure for a bumper harvest [6]. 2.2 Steady - to - Increasing Future Yields in Brazil and Argentina - According to the USDA's July estimate, Brazil's corn output in 2024/25 was 132 million tons, with exports of 43 million tons and domestic consumption of 91 million tons. For 2025/26, the output is predicted to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. Argentina's output in 2024/25 was 50 million tons, and in 2025/26, it is predicted to be 53 million tons. Overall, the total output of Brazil and Argentina in South America increased significantly in 2024/25, and the export supply capacity has recovered. The predicted output for 2025/26 is expected to increase slightly, but this prediction is still early and needs continuous tracking [9]. 2.3 Expected Recovery and Increase in New - Season Corn Yield in Ukraine - The USDA estimates that Ukraine's corn output in 2025/26 will be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons (13.8%) compared to the previous year, mainly due to a slight increase in area and recovery of yield per acre. The final year - end carry - over inventory is 60,000 tons, recovering from the previous year. Since June, precipitation in major producing areas has been low, and the NDVI index has been slightly lower, so future weather changes need to be monitored [11]. 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 Slight Increase in New - Season Planting Area and Steady - to - Increasing Production - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs estimates that China's corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 44,873 thousand hectares (673 million mu), an increase of 132 thousand hectares (1.98 million mu) or 0.3% compared to the previous year. The yield per hectare is expected to be 6,600 kg (440 kg per mu), and the total output will be 296.16 million tons, an increase of 0.4%. Overall, domestic corn production is expected to increase slightly. Since sowing, the climate suitability for corn has been generally good, but since July, precipitation has been low in the core producing areas in the Northeast and the Huang - Huai region, and drought pressure has emerged in some areas, so the impact of weather on yield per acre needs to be monitored [16]. 3.2 Decrease in Direct Corn Imports and Sinograin's Imported Corn Auction as an Important Supplement - China's corn imports have remained at a low level for several consecutive months. In the 2024/25 market year, the cumulative corn imports were 1.68 million tons, a significant decrease compared to 21.63 million tons in the same period of the previous year. It is expected that imports will increase in the second half of 2025, but the arrival may be after September. Since July 1st, Sinograin has started the auction of reserve imported corn, with a total turnover of less than 1 million tons, and the future supply is uncertain [18][20]. 3.3 Recovery and Expansion of the Breeding Scale and Increase in Feed Output - In the first half of 2025, the total output of industrial feed in China was 158.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased, while that of concentrated feed decreased. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding scales is expected to support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [23]. 3.4 Weak Downstream Consumption and Sluggish Deep - Processing Demand - Due to weak macro - economic growth and low consumer confidence, the consumption of downstream products of deep - processing enterprises has been sluggish, resulting in a significant reduction in the use of corn in the deep - processing sector. Since 2024/25, the corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises has decreased by about 4% compared to the previous year. In the corn starch production, which accounts for the largest proportion of corn consumption in the deep - processing sector, the consumption of corn starch has decreased significantly, leading to high inventory, poor processing profit, and low operating rate. It is expected that the deep - processing of corn starch will not improve significantly [24][27]. 3.5 Wheat Still Has an Advantage over Corn, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Auction of Feed Rice - Since March, wheat has shown an advantage in substituting for corn, and feed enterprises in North and Central China have adjusted their formulas. The import of substitute grains such as sorghum and barley has decreased significantly, and it is unlikely to increase suddenly in the future. However, the auction of aged rice is an uncertain factor [29].