- The report tracks industry prosperity signals for sectors such as coal, livestock farming, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining based on recent industry operating indicators[9] - **Coal Industry Model**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price factors and production capacity factors. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the following month[10][14] - **Livestock Farming Factor**: The "outbound coefficient method" is used to calculate the supply-demand gap for pigs six months in advance. The formula is: $ \text{Outbound Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Pig Outbound}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory lag6m}} $ $ \text{6-month Potential Production Capacity} = \text{t-month Breeding Sow Inventory} \times (\text{t+6-month Last Year Outbound Coefficient}) $ $ \text{6-month Potential Pig Demand} = \text{t+6-month Last Year Single Quarter Pig Outbound} $ This method effectively identifies pig price upward cycles[15][16] - **Steel Industry Model**: Monthly profit growth and per-ton profit are predicted using a model that incorporates comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[18] - **Structural Materials and Construction Engineering Model**: Profit changes in the glass and cement manufacturing industries are tracked using price and cost indicators. Configuration signals are designed based on profitability changes. Manufacturing prosperity and real estate sales data are analyzed to assess the likelihood of infrastructure investment expectations[25] - **Fuel Refining and Oil Services Model**: Industry profit growth and cracking spreads are calculated using changes in fuel oil prices and crude oil prices. Configuration signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling changes[27] Backtesting Results - **Coal Industry**: Profit growth is predicted to continue declining in November 2025 due to coal prices being lower than the previous year[14] - **Livestock Farming Factor**: The breeding sow inventory at the end of September 2025 was 40.35 million heads, slightly down month-on-month. The potential pig supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19.347 million heads, with demand forecasted at 19.476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight supply-demand balance[17] - **Steel Industry**: Profit growth for October 2025 is predicted to be negative. The rolling 12-month PMI average decreased month-on-month, maintaining a neutral configuration view for the steel industry[23] - **Structural Materials and Construction Engineering**: Flat glass profitability continued to grow year-on-year in October 2025, maintaining a positive signal for the glass industry. Cement industry profits turned negative year-on-year in October 2025, with no positive signals from new housing starts, maintaining a neutral view. Manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data suggest potential infrastructure investment expectations, leading to a positive signal for the construction decoration industry[26] - **Fuel Refining and Oil Services**: Fuel refining industry profits are predicted to grow slightly year-on-year in October 2025. Oil prices were lower than the previous year, maintaining a neutral view for the fuel refining and oil services industries[34][35]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] 2. The model incorporates year-over-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it relies heavily on the accuracy of price and capacity factor inputs[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[15] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] 3. The potential supply and demand six months later are calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $ $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, Previous Year)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upcycles, making it a valuable tool for forecasting[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model uses comprehensive steel prices and considers the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[18] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures the dynamics of the steel industry effectively, but its accuracy depends on the reliability of input data[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends in the glass and cement industries[25] 2. It incorporates economic data such as manufacturing PMI and real estate sales to analyze potential infrastructure investment expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability and its drivers, but it is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations[29] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices and crude oil prices[30] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[30] 2. Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the profitability dynamics of the refining industry, but its performance is influenced by oil price volatility[37] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry index achieved a cumulative excess return of 0.3% in July 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a potential supply of 18,249,000 hogs and a demand of 18,226,000 hogs for Q4 2025, indicating a roughly balanced market[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts positive year-over-year profit growth for July 2025, with improved per-ton profitability[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: The model indicates that glass industry gross profit remains in a year-over-year decline, but the rate of decline has narrowed[29] - **Cement Industry**: The model predicts a slight year-over-year profit growth for the cement industry in July 2025[29] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts slight year-over-year profit growth for the refining industry in July 2025[33] - **Oilfield Services**: The model observes that oil prices in July 2025 are lower than the previous year, with no significant change in new drilling activity[38]