宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 3 月 4 日 2 月 PMI 数据点评 制造业供、需指数均有下滑 制造业供、需指数均有下滑。出口仍维持韧性，2 月新出口订单下滑主要受 春节假期等季节性因素影响。制造业主要价格指数仍处于扩张区间。 制造业景气度仍位于收缩区间。2 月制造业 PMI 指数为 49.0%，环比（1 月，下同）下降 0.3 个百分点，制造业景气度在收缩区间继续下滑。着眼 重要细分项，2 月新订单指数 48.6%，环比下降 0.6 个百分点，外需同样 有所下滑，2 月新出口订单指数环比下降 2.8 个百分点，仅为 45.0%。 从不同行业的价格表现看，首先，2 月部分原材料加工业购进价格指数同 比明显改善，黑色金属冶炼加工业、金属制品业购进价格指数同比均有 回升；此外，当月有色金属冶炼及压延加工业购进价格指数同比、环比 均有回升，高技术产业投资或对有色金属产品价格形成重要支撑。2 月部 分设备制造业价格指数依然位于扩张区间，专用设备制造业购进价格指 数同比有所改善。 相关研究报告 《2025 年 CPI 权重更新》20260304 《中期视角下的美债与黄金》20260301 《 ...

Manufacturing Sector - January Manufacturing PMI index decreased to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[1] - New orders index fell to 49.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, while new export orders index dropped to 47.8%, down 1.2 percentage points[1] - Production index stood at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points; raw material inventory index at 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; finished goods inventory index increased to 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points[1] - Employment index decreased to 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points; supplier delivery time index slightly declined to 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points[1] Price and Demand Indicators - Major raw material purchase price index remained high at 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points; manufacturing output price index increased by 1.7 percentage points[2] - The demand for black metal smelting and specialized equipment manufacturing showed improvement in new orders, indicating potential growth in fixed asset investment[2] - January non-manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the service sector[3] Construction Sector - January construction PMI index dropped to 48.8%, a significant decline of 4.0 percentage points; new orders index fell to 40.1%, down 7.3 percentage points[3] - Employment index in construction slightly improved to 41.1%, up 0.1 percentage points; business activity expectation index decreased to 49.8%, down 7.6 percentage points[3]

Economic Overview - In Q4 2025, GDP growth rate was 4.5%, meeting expectations and achieving an annual growth rate of 5.0%[3] - Q4 GDP growth rate increased slightly from 1.1% in Q3 to 1.2%[3] - Net exports contributed 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth, while consumption and investment contributed 2.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively[6] Consumption Trends - December retail sales growth was 0.9%, below the expected 1.5% and November's 1.3%[10] - The decline in retail sales growth was influenced by high base effects and diminishing returns from the "trade-in" policy[10] - December saw a significant drop in automotive consumption growth from -8.3% in November to -5.0%[11] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for the year decreased by 3.8%, worse than the expected decline of 2.4%[4] - In December, manufacturing investment fell sharply to -9.4%, while real estate investment plummeted to -36.8%[20] - Equipment investment increased by 11.8%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade Performance - Export growth rate fell from 6.5% in Q3 to 3.8% in Q4, influenced by a high base from 2024[5] - December exports remained resilient, indicating potential strength in Q1 2026[5] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment dropped to -36.8% in December, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[30] - The sales volume of commercial housing showed signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in December compared to previous months[28] Infrastructure Investment - Both narrow and broad infrastructure investment saw increased declines, with broad infrastructure down 15.2% in December[25] - The decline in infrastructure investment is attributed to lower PPI and cautious spending amid local government debt issues[25] Future Outlook - Anticipated economic rebound in Q1 2026 due to preemptive investment policies and strong indicators in exports and infrastructure[2] - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing investment to support economic recovery in 2026[26] Risks - Potential risks include significant downturns in the global economy and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[32]

Core Viewpoint - Lihexing (301013.SZ) has signed a sales contract with a company for equipment procurement, with a total contract value of RMB 100.3 million (including tax) [1] Group 1 - The total amount of the contract is RMB 100.3 million [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the share pledges of key stakeholders in Xingyun Co., with Li Youcai pledging approximately 5.74 million shares (25.95% of his holdings) and Liu Zuobin pledging about 6.66 million shares (39.71% of his holdings) [1] - As of the announcement date, Xingyun Co. reported a market capitalization of 9.6 billion yuan [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Xingyun Co. is projected to be 90.25% from equipment manufacturing, 9.66% from testing services, and 0.1% from other businesses [1] Group 2 - The article also mentions a significant gathering of over 2,000 attendees at the Moutai distributor conference, where major changes regarding Moutai's pricing and distribution were announced [1] - Chairman Chen Hua emphasized that distributors can no longer rely on passive income [1]

Group 1 - Core point: Kory Technology (SZ 002957) announced the completion of its share reduction plan, with significant reductions from major shareholders and executives [1] - Shareholder reductions: Singapore Kory Technology reduced 4,199,920 shares, Huamiao Investment reduced 4,189,000 shares, and Eagle Investment reduced 930,400 shares during specified periods [1] - Executive reductions: Senior executives Li Dandan and Rao Lele reduced 165,000 shares and 79,900 shares, respectively, through market transactions [1] Group 2 - Revenue composition: For the first half of 2025, Kory Technology's revenue was primarily from equipment manufacturing, accounting for 99.09% of total revenue, with other businesses contributing 0.91% [1] - Market capitalization: As of the report, Kory Technology's market value was 8.3 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the resignation of Lin Hui, the Vice General Manager and Chief Financial Officer of Xingyun Co., Ltd., due to personal reasons, and the appointment of Zhang Xiaozhong as the new Vice General Manager and CFO [1] - The company’s revenue composition for the first half of 2025 shows that the equipment manufacturing sector accounts for 90.25%, testing services for 9.66%, and other businesses for 0.1% [1] - As of the latest report, the market capitalization of Xingyun Co., Ltd. is 8 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Xingyun Co., Ltd. announced the convening of its fourth board meeting to discuss the appointment of senior management and their compensation [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Xingyun Co., Ltd. is as follows: equipment manufacturing accounts for 90.25%, testing services account for 9.66%, and other businesses account for 0.1% [1] - As of the time of reporting, the market capitalization of Xingyun Co., Ltd. is 8 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The company Nebula Co., Ltd. (SZ 300648) announced plans for share reduction by its directors, with Jiang Meizhu intending to reduce up to approximately 4.14 million shares (2.37% of total share capital) and shareholder Tang Ping planning to reduce up to approximately 2.61 million shares (1.5% of total share capital) within a specified period from November 26, 2025, to February 25, 2026 [1][1][1] - For the first half of 2025, Nebula Co., Ltd.'s revenue composition was as follows: equipment manufacturing accounted for 90.25%, testing services for 9.66%, and other businesses for 0.1% [1][1][1] - As of the report date, Nebula Co., Ltd. had a market capitalization of 7.4 billion yuan [1][1][1]

Core Insights - COFCO Engineering's equipment manufacturing business offers a diverse product matrix including flour mills, cleaning machines, high square screens, drying equipment, energy comprehensive utilization equipment, oil pressing equipment, and storage logistics equipment [1] Group 1 - The main products of COFCO Engineering's equipment manufacturing segment cater to various needs of large, medium, and small grain and oil food processing enterprises as well as grain logistics and storage companies [1]