南财智讯1月29日电，洪田股份发布年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 1150万元—1725万元，同比预减85.26%—90.17%；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常 性损益的净利润为-410万元—-205万元，同比预减102.64%—105.27%。本期业绩预减的主要原因： （一）主营业务影响：1、收入确认金额下降。2025年以来，尽管电解铜箔行业景气度回升，下游电解 铜箔厂商在经历了阶段性调整后重启扩产，但作为锂电铜箔行业的上游，公司所在的设备行业复苏时间 存在一定的滞后性。报告期内，公司控股子公司洪田科技部分设备订单仍处于生产、交付或安装调试阶 段，未能于本会计年度内完成最终验收并确认收入，导致公司净利润同比出现下滑。2、公司严格遵循 企业会计准则要求，基于谨慎性原则，对相关资产计提减值准备，进一步减少了当期利润水平。3、公 司持续增加在光学设备领域的研发投入与支出，报告期内，公司控股子公司洪瑞微及洪镭光学研发费用 及支出2298.03万元，上年同期发生额1221.78万元，致使本期利润较上年同期减少约1076.25万元。 （二）非经营性损益的影响：本期收到的政 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - UBS expects global economic growth to gradually slow down in the second half of 2025, with healthy balance sheets and low default rates supporting spread stability [1] - The anticipated spread for EU investment-grade/high-yield bonds by December 2025 is projected at 100/325 basis points, despite potential market volatility from tariff news [1][2] - UBS's proprietary economic risk indicator has improved, challenging initial recession scenarios, although growth momentum is expected to fade later in the year [2] Group 2: ECB and Monetary Policy - UBS forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB in June to 2.0%, aligning with market expectations, with another potential cut in July to 1.75% [3] - The ECB is expected to prioritize growth support while navigating inflation uncertainties, particularly in light of potential retaliatory tariffs from the EU [3] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a slowdown in May, but manufacturing activity remains positive, with private sector credit growth recovering [4] - Low default rates (approximately 1.5%) and strong fundamentals are supporting the resilience of credit spreads, despite ongoing trade uncertainties [4] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Investment-grade financial bonds are seen as an ideal choice compared to corporate bonds, with energy and basic industries being the most sensitive to tariff news [1][7] - The capital goods and utilities sectors are viewed as defensive, while the technology sector is experiencing increased volatility due to specific risks [7] Group 5: Trade News Impact - Following the announcement of tariffs, credit spreads initially widened but did so in an orderly manner without panic selling [6] - UBS anticipates increased volatility around tariff news in the summer, particularly after the 90-day pause period ends [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - In the context of rising market volatility due to tariff news, opportunities in sensitive sectors are increasingly driven by individual stock performance rather than macro factors [8] - Companies with strong balance sheets and low breakeven points in the energy sector are better positioned, while those with high leverage face greater risks [8] Group 7: Credit Market Trends - The orderly widening of spreads around the "Liberation Day" reflects investor preparedness, with a significant amount of cash buffer available to manage tariff announcements [9] - UBS predicts a rotation of funds from U.S. to EU markets, with credit valuations remaining well-supported [9] Group 8: Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector has outperformed, supported by strong earnings from core European banks, despite some weakness in interest income and non-performing loans [10][11] - UBS maintains a constructive but cautious outlook on the financial sector, anticipating moderate issuance in the investment-grade primary market [11] Group 9: Technical Market Conditions - Investment-grade corporate bond issuance reached a historical high of 56% in May, driven by positive tariff news and strong investor demand [13] - UBS expects a healthy supply dynamic for financial bonds, particularly in AT1 and T2 bonds, supporting the market's technical backdrop [13] Group 10: Private Credit Market Outlook - UBS notes unique supportive factors in the European private credit market, including stronger EBITDA growth compared to the U.S. and improving interest coverage ratios [14] - The European private credit market is expected to remain resilient, with ample dry powder available to support liquidity and mitigate hard defaults [14]