Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, revenue decreased by 2% year-over-year, while operating income improved by 19%, and diluted earnings per share increased by 24% compared to the prior year period [11] - For the fiscal year 2025, revenue declined by 1%, while operating income increased by 4% [12] - The company executed over $25 million in tracked savings in Q4, achieving a run rate of over $100 million in annualized cost savings [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Intermodal volumes were down 2% year-over-year in Q4, with transcontinental volumes down 6% and eastern loads up 5% [33] - The final mile business experienced soft market demand, particularly in furniture, exercise equipment, and appliances, with expectations of a $90 million revenue headwind in 2026 due to the loss of legacy appliance-related business [21][22] - The dedicated business maintained flat operating income compared to 2024 results despite a lower fleet count, with strong new truck sales in Q4 [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand in Q4 aligned with expectations, with a tightening market observed around Thanksgiving [17] - Customers are consolidating logistics providers, leading to the highest customer retention since 2017 [18] - The freight market is perceived as fragile, with limited elasticity in supply, which could lead to significant changes with even small upticks in demand [41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined growth through operational excellence, leveraging investments in people, technology, and capacity [9] - The strategy includes repairing margins to drive long-term value for shareholders and maintaining a strong balance sheet [13] - The company aims to convert highway truckload shipments to intermodal, enhancing its competitive advantage [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the fragility of the freight market, indicating that small changes in demand could have larger impacts [41] - There is optimism about the potential for growth in 2026, driven by operational excellence and customer demand [19] - Management is preparing for various scenarios regarding Class 1 rail consolidation and its impact on intermodal services [31] Other Important Information - The company spent $575 million on capital reinvestment in 2025 and executed a record $923 million in share repurchases [12][13] - The company is committed to maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet while supporting dividend growth and opportunistically repurchasing shares [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the freight market being fragile? - Management indicated that the supply side has not changed significantly since Thanksgiving, and small demand upticks could create larger market ripples due to limited elasticity [41][42] Question: What is the opportunity for cost savings in 2026? - Management expressed confidence in exceeding the $100 million cost savings target, citing successful execution of various cost initiatives [50] Question: How does the recent tighter capacity freight market impact expectations for dedicated sales? - Management noted that while it is too early to see significant changes, there is optimism due to strong new customer acquisitions and a robust sales pipeline [73]

Core Viewpoint - Brad Jacobs is stepping down as chairman of XPO and GXO to focus on QXO, a new company aimed at becoming a leader in the building products distribution industry, targeting $50 billion in revenue through acquisitions and organic growth [1][2]. Company Developments - Jacobs' resignation is effective December 31, and he will concentrate on QXO and Jacobs Private Equity, stating that XPO and GXO are in excellent shape with bright prospects [2]. - XPO has transitioned to being solely an LTL provider after spinning off its intermodal unit, contract logistics operations (GXO), and freight brokerage (RXO) [4]. Financial Performance - GXO's stock has increased by 8.76% over the last 52 weeks, while XPO's stock has decreased by approximately 5.75% in the same period but has seen a rise of over 6% in the last month and about 14.5% in the last three months [5]. - QXO reported net sales of about $4.6 billion for the nine months ended September 30, following its acquisition of Beacon Roofing Supply [6][7]. - QXO's price/sales ratio is approximately 262, reflecting investor sentiment based on Jacobs' previous successes, while XPO's price/sales ratio is 2.18 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the outlook for the freight transportation industry in 2026 to "attractive," citing the best risk-reward profile since 2020, despite unclear industry prospects [1] Trucking Industry - In a bearish scenario, the trucking industry in 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025, but in a bullish scenario, stock prices could see over a 50% upside [1] - 2026 is anticipated to be a decisive year for autonomous trucks, as companies will seek to expand pilot fleets in preparation for commercial launches in 2027 [1] Rail Industry - The focus for the rail industry in 2026 will be on the merger developments between Union Pacific (UNP.US) and Norfolk Southern (NSC.US), among others [1] - If the fundamentals do not keep pace with the trucking industry during the upcycle, merger enthusiasm may decline; low single-digit percentage growth in volume and rates is expected [1] - Preference continues for Canadian rail companies over U.S. rail companies [1] Logistics/Third-Party Logistics Industry - 2026 may be a transformative year for brokers, as some stocks begin to reflect the "AI concept halo" [1] - The effectiveness and sustainability of technology enhancements will be evaluated, along with how AI-enabled brokers respond to the upcycle and maintain market share against asset-based carriers [1] Package Delivery Industry - 2026 is expected to be a critical year for package delivery companies as major cost/restructuring plans reach completion, providing clearer insights into normalized EPS levels [1] - Structural changes in the e-commerce market may continue, with rural delivery and returns becoming new competitive fronts [1] Stock Recommendations - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the ratings for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.US) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.US) from "market perform" to "overweight" [1] - Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX.US) remains the top-ranked stock in the freight transportation industry for 2026, followed by GXO Logistics (GXO.US) and Ryder (R.US) [1] - Canadian National Railway (CNI.US) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City have entered the top five rankings [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue, excluding fuel surcharge, increased by 2.4% year-over-year, while operating income declined by $31.1 million or 38.2% year-over-year due to $58 million of unusual items [15][16] - GAAP earnings per diluted share for Q3 2025 were $0.05 compared to $0.19 for Q3 2024, while adjusted EPS was $0.32 for Q3 2025 compared to $0.34 for Q3 2024, reflecting a 5.9% year-over-year decrease [15][16] - The consolidated adjusted operating ratio was 93.8%, flat year-over-year and sequentially [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The LTL segment held steady at 20% of consolidated revenue, its highest share since entering this segment in 2021, with revenue, excluding fuel surcharge, increasing by 21.5% year-over-year [17][20] - The truckload segment experienced a revenue decline of 2.1% year-over-year, driven by a 2.3% decrease in loaded miles, while revenue per loaded mile improved slightly year-over-year [18][19] - The logistics segment saw a revenue decline of 2.2% year-over-year, driven by a 6.2% decline in load count, but adjusted operating income grew by 1.9% year-over-year [24] - The intermodal segment improved its adjusted operating ratio by 160 basis points year-over-year to 99.8%, despite an 8.4% decline in revenue [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Freight markets are still grappling with uncertainty, with many shippers hesitant to take risks, leading to deviations from normal seasonal patterns [5][6] - There are signs of regulatory impacts on capacity availability, which may take time to consistently affect the market [10][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is adopting the AAA Cooper brand across its entire LTL business to deliver a cohesive solution to customers [11] - The strategy includes leveraging technology to enhance connectivity and operational efficiency across different business lines [17][48] - The company anticipates ongoing attrition in capacity due to regulatory enforcement and market dynamics, which could create favorable conditions for its truckload business [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding expectations for Q4 due to uncertainties in volume build and demand trends [5][6] - The company sees opportunities for margin growth in a stronger market, supported by improvements in cost structure during the down cycle [10] - Management noted that while there is some softness in LTL demand, bid discussions are encouraging, indicating potential for future growth [46][52] Other Important Information - The company projects adjusted EPS for Q4 2025 to be in the range of $0.34 to $0.40, assuming current conditions persist [30] - Full-year net cash capex is projected to be between $475 million to $525 million [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on adjusted EPS and regulatory impacts on capacity - Management confirmed that the adjusted EPS of $0.32 reflects historical reporting practices and discussed the potential impacts of regulatory enforcement on capacity availability, noting that some states are beginning to revoke non-domiciled CDLs [71][75][36] Question: Insights on LTL margins and synergy opportunities - Management acknowledged softness in LTL demand but emphasized that pricing remains disciplined, and they are optimistic about leveraging synergies between truckload and LTL operations [45][52][48] Question: Cost-cutting initiatives and their impact - Management detailed ongoing cost-cutting initiatives across segments, highlighting progress in fixed and variable costs, and expressed confidence in achieving further improvements in margins [56][60][67]