Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, with the decision hinging on upcoming CPI data, and the potential for a significant cut of either 25 or 50 basis points [1][2] - The U.S. labor market showed disappointing performance in August, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [1][2] - The weak employment data suggests a high probability of economic recession, especially as the three-month average job growth is below 50,000, which historically indicates recession risks [1][2] Group 2 - The sectors most affected by poor employment performance include IT, financial services, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, with a notable impact on high-income white-collar jobs [2] - Despite the downturn, wage growth continues, and labor participation rates have increased, indicating some resilience in the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to reassess economic risks due to the weak labor market, making employment a more critical focus in their dual mandate [2][3] Group 3 - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 are anticipated to be heavily influenced by economic conditions, with the economy serving as a key factor in voter sentiment [3][4] - The major economic issues at stake include the "Build Back Better" plan and the tariff war, with their impacts on prices, employment, and income being crucial for electoral outcomes [4][5] - Republican strategies include redistricting efforts to gain an advantage in the House of Representatives, while Democrats face challenges in maintaining their traditional strongholds [5]

2025年4月，由申万宏源担任主承销商/簿记管理人的"新疆生产建设兵团第十二师 国有资产经营（集团）有限责任公司2025年度第一期中期票据"成功完成簿记发行。本 期债券发行规模6亿元，其中品种一期限为3年期，发行规模3亿元，票面利率2.25%； 品种二期限为5年期，发行规模3亿元，票面利率2.66%，双品种发行结果均创发行人同 品种债券历史新记录！ 新疆生产建设兵团第十二师国有资产经营（集团）有限责任公司作为新疆生产建设 兵团第十二师域内资产规模最大、主体评级最高的优质产业类主体，在乳业、贸易批发 等板块均具有突出优势。本期债券为我公司首次担任该主体债券项目的牵头主承销商， 在本期债券的路演及簿记过程中，我司充分发挥产业链大协同优势，对投资者实现深度 覆盖，在前期沟通、票面利率引导等方面作出突出贡献，获得发行人的高度好评。 本期债券的成功发行进一步夯实了双方可持续合作基础，有力巩固了我司在新疆债 券市场的头部地位。 免责 声 明 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 ...