高盛周末宏观电话会：宏观股市观点、AI 采用信号、油价 地缘政治溢价、新兴市场韧性及全球其他地区跑赢大市 20260228 摘要 特朗普政府关税政策调整频繁，虽声称统一加征 15%关税，但实际执行 可能采取差异化安排，对不同国家和产品实施不同税率，实际关税税率 影响差异仅约 0.1 个百分点。 关税退款问题进展较快，预计退款金额约 1,800 亿美元，但发放速度和 执行周期仍存在不确定性。新关税面临法律挑战，但因 122 条款关税期 限限制，司法程序可能无法在期限内完成裁决。 中期选举中，众议院民主党优势明显，但参议院竞争激烈，民主党面临 艰巨挑战。关注得克萨斯州初选结果，可能影响参议院席位归属。 消费者端 AI 采用率快速提升，已广泛融入日常生活，使用频率大幅提高， 推动算力需求爆炸式增长。企业端 AI 推进缓慢，规模化落地面临数据和 系统层面的障碍。 英伟达财报超预期，但股价未明显上涨，投资者关注 2027 年超大规模 资本开支的能见度、非传统客户的持续支出路径以及技术领先性再确认。 Q&A 近期关税问题重回头条，叠加国情咨文演讲，华盛顿当前最关注的议题是什么， 需要重点关注哪些方面？ 关税问题不确定性仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, with short - term logic focused on the Iran issue. The short - term geopolitical sentiment drives up crude oil prices. The short - term trend of the crude oil market depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - For the chemical industry, most oil - chemical products follow the cost - driven rise of crude oil. It is recommended to use a long - short hedging strategy, going long on products with strong fundamentals (such as PX, PTA, EB) and short on those with weak fundamentals (PP, EG, plastics). For soda ash and PVC, which have a low correlation with oil, a short - selling strategy can be adopted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The short - term logic is centered on the Iran issue. Geopolitical sentiment pushes up prices, but the probability of a US strike on Iran before the end of February is low. The short - term trend depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 471. It is recommended to wait and hold small - position 04P440 options if available [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Domestic production is increasing under high profits, and supply may return more than expected. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. Exports are expected to increase, providing support on the demand side [6][9]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 7700. It is recommended to wait and observe [9]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: Port inventory is high, domestic production is recovering rapidly, and downstream production is performing well. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy of going long on EB and short on BZ [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 6295. It is recommended to wait and observe, and set a stop - loss at 6295 if entered the market the day before [12]. (4) Rubber - Logic: In the short term, there is no significant supply - demand contradiction. Due to the seasonal factors and the cost - driven increase from crude oil, natural rubber shows a passive upward trend. However, the medium - term upward logic is not strong, and it is recommended to hold a short - term long position or a long - matching position, but a medium - term short position [14][16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 16250. It is recommended to wait and observe [16]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The profit of downstream tires is poor, and the fundamental pressure is increasing. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene, showing a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics [17][20]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen close to a short - term low. The short - term pressure is at 13220. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 13350 [20]. (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The intraday trading is within the 7050 - 7500 range. It is recommended to wait and observe [24]. (7) PTA - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 5160. It is recommended to wait and observe [25]. (8) PP - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [28]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with reduced positions. The short - term pressure is at 6730 - 6770. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6770 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: It shows a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. The restart of Iranian methanol plants in spring may bring high import pressure, but the geopolitical sentiment during the holiday adds uncertainty. The upward space depends on the resolution of the Iran issue [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 2270. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 2265 [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Supply is at a high level, downstream production has decreased, and inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The high - inventory and high - premium pressure of the 05 contract is difficult to change, and the price is more likely to fall [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 3780 - 3800. It is recommended to wait and observe, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 3800 [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 6830 - 6860. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6860 [36]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: It is in a situation of oversupply. New production capacity has been released during the Spring Festival, and demand is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 1180 - 1190. It is recommended to hold short positions and set a take - profit at 1190 [38]. (13) PVC - Logic: It has a low correlation with oil and is in a situation of oversupply. Inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the real - estate market is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [40]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 5010. It is recommended to hold short positions, take half - profit actively, and set a stop - loss at 5010 for the remaining half [40].

近日，特朗普再次成为全球舆论的焦点，他的关税政策被判定为违法。然而，令许多人感到意外的是，特朗普不仅没有因此退缩，反而迅速找到新的理由， 再次决定加税，而且这次的目标是全世界。这个消息一传出，立即引起了轩然大波——从中国到欧洲，再到他曾经的盟友，纷纷表示强烈反对。 与此同时，特朗普计划在3月底访问中国的消息也引发了外界的诸多疑问。为何他在引发全球关税风波的同时，又急于与中国展开高层会谈？这一对比，难 免让人感到困惑。 特朗普的这番举动，难道是为了绝地反击？从表面上看，特朗普的新关税政策似乎充满了强硬气息，但细究之下，却又充满了被动反击的意味。此前，特朗 普通过对等关税的手段，对中国等国征收了超过1750亿美元的关税。然而，最高法院的裁决不仅宣布这一政策违法，还要求美国政府归还相关的税款。面对 财政压力和政治困境，特朗普没有停手，而是找到了新的理由，宣布对全球加征15%的关税。 然而，这项新政策的漏洞和局限性却显而易见。首先，特朗普此举引用的《1974年贸易法》第122条，仅适用于美国面临严重国际收支逆差的情况，而根据 当前的贸易状况，美国并不符合这一条件。这使得新政策的法律基础显得异常脆弱。其次，这项政策的有 ...

关注今日美伊日内瓦谈判结果 行情综述： 油：原油依旧呈现地缘与基本面的分化态势，且短期逻辑完全聚 焦伊朗问题。短期地缘情绪继续推升原油上行，假期期间美伊两轮谈 判未有大幅进展，同时中东美军继续增大部署，美军中东军事力量已 达 03 年伊拉克以来最大规模，已完成中等规模空中打击行动的前置 准备，市场继续提前定价地缘冲突。但目前海外 polymarket 平台上 的 2 月底前打击伊朗概率依然不高，开战的高成本与高风险和协议达 成对中期选举的利好权衡依然在影响特朗普决策，对特朗普来说达成 协议依然是最能"赢"的选项，美军中东军事集结既是军事选项的前 置准备也是特朗普极限施压的一环。市场提前进行地缘溢价计价后原 油盘面短期走势将完全由伊朗地缘解决路径决定。协议解决与冲突发 生将形成急跌修复与急涨两种路径。目前谈判主动权在美，留给伊朗 的谈判筹码不多，关键仍在伊朗能否接受特朗普要价。抛开局势失控 的极端情景仍以等待降温高空机会为主。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油 2604 小时图 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 受地缘情绪从原油传导至丁二烯带来成本端向上驱动，短期需关注伊 朗问题发展路径。 ...

白宫在2月20日正式确认，美国总统特朗普将于3月31日至4月2日对中国进行为期三天的访问。这将是特朗普自2017年首次访华以来，时隔九年再次踏上中国 的土地。本应是中美关系出现缓和迹象的关键时刻，然而，实际情况却充满了许多不确定性。特朗普团队表示，此行将重点讨论贸易问题，包括延续去年的 贸易休战协议，并努力避免新一轮的关税冲突。中国外交部发言人回应称，双方正在就具体细节进行沟通，但强调这一切都取决于美方的态度。在2月19日 的一个内部会议上，特朗普提到此行时表示，他希望中方能够安排隆重的欢迎仪式，并回忆起2017年访华时盛大的仪仗队。 与此同时，美国最高法院于同一天作出了判决，以6比3的投票结果裁定特朗普政府基于特定法律征收的全球关税无效。这些关税从一开始就缺乏法律依据， 涉及的资金约为1750亿美元，其中部分已被用于国内支出，目前面临着退款要求。虽然法院的九名大法官中有六人是共和党任命的，其中三人由特朗普提 名，但他们依然投下了反对票，这反映出特朗普的政策支持基础正在出现动摇。由于此裁决无法上诉，特朗普在2026年中期选举之前陷入了被动的局面，迫 切需要通过外交成果来转移外界的注意力。恰逢此时，特朗普访华的 ...

一直以来，中美关系始终处于紧张状态，外部局势难以化解，特朗普却在国内遭遇了前所未有的压力。2月20日，华盛顿的终审判决揭晓，特朗普耗费五年 心血打造的贸易政策基础瞬间崩塌。 让特朗普愤怒的是，美国最高法院在2月20日做出的一个终审判决，裁定特朗普政府以《国际紧急经济权力法》为名对全球实施单边征税的行为违反了宪 法。法院的六比三判决结果，无疑是特朗普政府面临的一记沉重打击。 自2018年起，关税政策便成为特朗普政府施政的核心内容，成为其政治标签的一部分。特朗普通过提高对其他国家商品的关税，企图改变全球贸易规则，迫 使贸易伙伴做出让步，并将制造业带回美国。这种手段被看作是美国优先政策的一种强硬体现。然而，最高法院认为，征税权属于美国国会的专属权力，总 统无权通过国家紧急状态来规避或扩大征税范围。这意味着特朗普过去五年对全球185个经济体征收的近1750亿美元关税，已经彻底失去了法律依据。 更让特朗普感到尴尬的是，这一裁决得到了两名保守派大法官以及两党一致的支持，超越了党派之争，成为美国司法体系对行政权力过度扩张的一次集体反 击。败诉的后果不容小觑，已经征收的巨额关税可能面临企业提起集体诉讼要求退还的压力，这将导致 ...

财通证券分析师张伟、任思雨在月24日发布的最新研报中，剖析了特朗普政府在关税法律战失利后的迅速转向。对于全球投资者而言，这篇报告 不仅揭示了美国贸易政策的底层博弈逻辑，更指出了在中期选举年背景下，白宫正试图在摇摇欲坠的财政赤字和愤怒的选民通胀感知之间，通过 法律游戏寻找平衡。 据新华社报道，在美国最高法院否决特朗普政府此前依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的关税安排后，特朗普政府迅速援引《1974年 贸易法》第122条，对全球进口商品设置10%统一关税；特朗普随后表示将把税率提高到15%。 财通证券指出，特朗普在关税法律战失利后迅速启用税率更低的第122条款替代违宪的IEEPA，实为 "虚空造牌"——通过制造谈判筹码维持高压， 为中期选举争取选票。 | | 301 调查 | 232 调查 | 122 条款 | 338 条款 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 法律依据 | 1974年《贸易法》第 301 条 | 1962年《贸易扩展法》第 232 条 | 1974年《贸易法》第 122 条 | 1930年《斯穆特-霍利关税法》第 | | | | | | 338 条 ...

专题：美最高法院裁定特朗普全球关税违法 特朗普回应裁决是"耻辱" 专题：美最高法院裁定特朗普全球关税违法 特朗普回应裁决是"耻辱" 欧股升至历史新高，此前美国最高法院裁定总统唐纳德·特朗普的大规模全球关税无效。 欧股升至历史新高，此前美国最高法院裁定总统唐纳德·特朗普的大规模全球关税无效。 斯托克600指数一度上涨1.1%，收盘涨幅收窄至0.8%。LVMH和爱马仕国际等对关税敏感的奢侈品制造 商跑赢大盘。 这一裁决削弱了特朗普标志性的经济政策，成为他第二任期以来最大的法律挫败。不过，大法官们并未 就进口商在多大程度上有权获得退款作出裁定，而是将此留给下级法院处理。 据报道，特朗普在白宫早餐会上对与会者表示，关税问题上他有备选方案。 "如果市场认为这一裁决会持续有效，反应会更大，"Premier Miton Investors首席投资官Neil Birrell表 示，"不过关键在于，现在已接近2月底，11月将举行中期选举，特朗普将竭尽全力推动此事。" 欧洲基准股指周五早盘已获提振，此前欧元区企业活动强于预期，得益于德国经济出人意料的增长。美 国经济在2025年最后一个季度的增速低于预期，投资者对此也进行了评估。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political ramifications of President Trump's proposed tariffs on Canada, highlighting a shift in Republican support and the implications for trade agreements and upcoming elections [1][3][11]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Several Republican members have opposed Trump's tariff plans, indicating a significant shift in party dynamics as they align with Democrats to block the proposed tariffs [3][4]. - The opposition from within the Republican Party is driven by concerns over Trump's unilateral decision-making and its potential impact on the party's image and future elections [6][9]. Group 2: Trade Implications - Trump's threats to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods could jeopardize the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), affecting trade worth approximately $2 trillion [7]. - The potential tariffs create uncertainty for investors, as they reflect a disregard for established trade agreements and could deter future investments in the US [9]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - The economic burden of tariffs primarily falls on American consumers, leading to rising prices and stagnant employment rates, which could be leveraged by Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections [11][13]. - The White House's attempts to attribute low employment rates to immigration policy rather than Trump's decisions indicate a defensive strategy in light of economic challenges [11][13]. Group 4: Power Dynamics - Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs raises concerns about the erosion of checks and balances within the US political system, prompting Republicans to seek ways to limit his authority [15]. - The transformation of enforcement agencies under Trump's influence is seen as a potential threat to the established political order, necessitating a response from the Republican Party to safeguard its future [15].

美国这份非农，我看完第一反应不是"经济真强"，而是"政治味儿太冲"，冲得人眼睛疼。 2月11日晚上公布，美国1月非农新增13万人，市场预期才6.5万人，前值只有5万人，这一下直接把"预期"按在地上摩擦。 更狠的是结构，私营部门新增17.2万人，政府部门反而减少4.2万人，再配一个失业率4.3%，还是2025年8月以来新低。 这份数据从叙事角度几乎是为特朗普量身定做的，私营猛增对应"市场活了"，政府减少对应"砍深层政府、给纳税人省钱"，失业率更低对应"美国人找到工 作"。 一套连招太顺了，但问题就出在这里，顺得不正常，因为就在不久前，美国就业讲的还是另一套故事。 2025年12月非农新增仅5万人，低于市场预期的6.5万到7.3万，也低于修正后11月的5.6万。 所以再回头看1月这份"突然爆表"的非农，就像一条线突然拐了个直角。 但专家直接指出这套算法站不住脚，要知道美国失业率一度飙升，现在就业数据突然强得发光，这就很尴尬了。 经济有惯性，数据有惯性，只有政治没有惯性，更刺眼的是裁员潮压根没停。 2月5日英国《金融时报》报道，美国企业1月裁员108435人，创下2008年金融危机以来一月最高纪录。 大厂还在继续" ...