AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 同样值得关注的是，道氏理论的买入信号并非本周美股市场出现的唯一利好信号。数据显示，标普400 中型股指数在周二也创下了自去年12月11日以来的首个收盘历史新高。 什么是道氏理论？ 一项被投资分析师沿用逾百年的股市指标，于本周释放出强烈的看涨信号。 周二，道琼斯工业平均指数与道琼斯运输业平均指数同日创下收盘历史新高，这是道氏理论时隔一年多 以来首次发出买入信号。 在技术策略师看来，这一现象印证了始于2022年年末的牛市根基依旧稳固，即便部分此前涨幅显著的人 工智能概念股近期表现承压。 道琼斯工业平均指数的上一个收盘历史高点出现在1月5日，而道琼斯运输业平均指数距离本轮新高则间 隔了更长时间。道琼斯市场数据显示，该指数此前一次收盘创纪录还要追溯至2024年11月25日。 "这一信号印证了长期牛市仍在延续且运行稳健。"市场技术分析师协会（CMT Association）联合创始 人拉尔夫・阿坎波拉（Ralph Acampora）在接受《市场观察》采访时表示。 过去两个月，美股市场呈现出明显的板块轮动特征：英伟达（NVDA）、博通（AVGO）等此前炙手可 热的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the Federal Reserve adopts a cautious economic outlook in the upcoming meeting, it could threaten the year-end stock market rally [1] - The S&P 500 index is nearing historical highs, with investors optimistic about a scenario of Fed rate cuts, declining inflation, and resilient economic growth [1] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America warns that a dovish signal from the Fed could challenge this optimism, suggesting a potential economic slowdown beyond expectations [1] Group 2 - The stock market tends to decline when rate cuts are accompanied by a deteriorating economic outlook [2] - Investor bets on further Fed rate cuts to support a weak labor market have led to a rise in the stock market, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the December 10 meeting [3] - The S&P 500 index is currently only about 0.5% away from its October peak, and seasonal trends typically favor a year-end rally [3] Group 3 - The potential for government intervention to curb high inflation and prevent unemployment from rising to 5% is noted, with recommendations to invest in "cheaply valued" mid-cap stocks by 2026 [3] - Sectors linked to the economic cycle, such as homebuilders, retailers, REITs, and transportation stocks, are expected to achieve the best relative gains [3] - Bank of America strategists reaffirm their preference for international equities in 2025, noting that the S&P 500's 17% annual increase lags behind the 27% gain of the MSCI All-Country World ex-US index [3]